2023 MLB Draft Stock Watch: Revisiting Power & Contact Plots Of College Hitters

Back in February, I took a look at how the top college hitters in the class stacked up in terms of both 90th percentile exit velocity and contact. Today, we’re revisiting that with updated performance data from the 2023 season.

In today’s chart, we are looking at the three basic elements that make a good hitter: contact ability, impact and swing decisions. We’re using all available college data from Synergy for overall contact and chase rates, and 2023 TrackMan data for 90th percentile exit velocities. 

Hitters are plotted on the chart below based on their contact rates (x axis) and 90th percentile exit velocities (y axis), with the shading of individual plots representing chase rates—the darker the plot point, the greater the chase rate; the lighter the plot point, the lower the chase rate. If it’s hard to see a player’s point on the chart (Michael Carico, Luke Shliger) that means it’s hard for a pitcher to entice them to swing out of the zone.

Below is a chart of the 61 college hitters who currently rank inside the top 200 of our BA draft rankings. If you mouse over individual plot points you can see the specifics for each player.

Before we get into a few specific players, here are the biggest year-over-year movers: 

90th Percentile EV Gainers
Player	2022 EV	2023 EV	Change
Luke Keaschall	97.2	104.1	6.9
Max Anderson	101.6	106.7	5.1
Cole Carrigg	97.2	101.5	4.3
Calvin Harris	100	103.9	3.9
Brayden Taylor	100.9	104.8	3.9
Luke Shliger	96.7	100.6	3.9
Jake Gelof	103.2	107.1	3.9
Roc Riggio	100.3	103.9	3.6
Kyle Teel	102.6	105.8	3.2
Jack Hurley	106	108.8	2.8

Luke Keaschall went from one of the softest-hitting players in the field to solidly middle of the pack. He still doesn’t project for huge power at the next level and his 18 home runs this spring mostly went to the pull side, but the impact he’s shown is a massive jump from a year ago. Max Anderson more than doubled his home run production by hitting the ball harder and also upping his fly ball rate, with a greater percentage of those fly falls carrying over the fence this spring. Brayden Taylor is perhaps the most interesting name of this group given his reputation as a pure hitter but a tougher profile as a college third baseman who was critiqued for his impact potential entering the year. He seemed to sacrifice a bit of contact, as you’ll see below, in order to hit the ball harder and totaled a career-best 23 home runs after a previous high of 13.

90th Percentile EV Losers
Player	2022 EV	2023 EV	Change
Michael Carico	104.2	100.9	-3.3
Wyatt Langford	110.6	107.6	-3
Jared Dickey	105.1	102.8	-2.3
Jack Moss	102	100.2	-1.8
Travis Honeyman	106.9	105.3	-1.6
Homer Bush Jr.	98.9	98	-0.9
Brock Wilken	108.8	108.1	-0.7
Jacob Gonzalez	104.8	104.2	-0.6
Ryan Lasko	103.8	103.3	-0.5
Kyle Karros	102	101.8	-0.2

It’s not surprising to see that the top players on this list are also those who have dealt with injuries this spring. Michael Carico played in just 21 games and dealt with a wrist injury this spring and Jared Dickey has dealt with a number of injuries throughout his college career, including a hand surgery last fall and a shoulder issue this spring. Wyatt Langford was the overall exit velocity leader on this chart entering the year, and fell from an elite 110 mph range to a still very good 107 mph range and missed a few games after fouling a ball off himself earlier this season. Seeing Homer Bush Jr. fail to take a step forward in this category is disappointing because he was expected to add some strength and start to hit the ball a bit harder and has well below-average EV numbers, but he did cut his strikeouts in half and manage the best offensive season of his career, so it’s tough to get too nit-picky over less than one mph change.

Contact Gainers
Player	Pre-2023 Contact	Post-2023 Contact	Change
Chase Davis	68.00%	73%	5%
Homer Bush Jr.	76.00%	80%	4%
Calvin Harris	72.00%	76%	4%
Ryan Lasko	74.00%	77%	3%
Tommy Troy	74.00%	77%	3%
Matt Shaw	79.00%	81%	2%

The players above are all the players who moved their overall contact rates up more than a single percentage point. That might not sound like a lot, but our sample here includes their full career’s worth of data. We’re not just comparing the 2022 season to the 2023 season here, so all the baggage players entered with is still being carried around. Chase Davis had huge contact questions entering the season and did an excellent job addressing that area of his game this spring. His 14.4% strikeout rate is far and away the lowest he’s had in college and has helped catapult him into the first round.

Contact Losers
Player	Pre-2023 Contact	Post-2023 Contact	Change
Maui Ahuna	75.00%	71%	-4%
Roc Riggio	79.00%	76%	-3%
Brayden Taylor	84.00%	81%	-3%
Yohandy Morales	77.00%	75%	-2%
Marcus Brown	83.00%	81%	-2%

Maui Ahuna was viewed as a first-round talent entering the year, but has fallen out of that range after struggling offensively this spring. Moving from Kansas to Tennessee was a great opportunity to prove his offensive chops after a standout 2022 season, but instead the SEC competition has only increased concerns about his pitch recognition, swing path and overall bat-to-ball skills. As mentioned above, it seems like Taylor traded off a bit of contact for a good amount of power, and given his already strong contact skills and batting eye, it’s probably a trade any player would make—and paid off for him this season. Marcus Brown didn’t have much to give away in this category considering he doesn’t hit the ball particularly hard and also chases at a high rate. He’s fallen significantly from his preseason draft ranking.

Now let’s get into a few players who stand out for their placement on the chart above. 

The Ball Goes Far If The Bat Ever Finds It

Most of the field is generally clustered together, with three obvious players who jump out immediately as high-power, low-contact outliers: Kemp Alderman, Caden Grice and Nolan McLean. It’s notable that both Grice and McLean are two-way players in college who have more upside as pitchers—precisely because of the contact issues that this chart illustrates.

Alderman has some of the best exit velocities in the country and jumps ahead of every player on this list, with 3.3 mph more than the next best player on this list. That power comes with below-average contact ability and a 32% chase rate that is significantly worse than an otherwise respectable 16.9% strikeout rate this spring would indicate. 

As you move down this trio of players, from Alderman to Grice to McLean, the power and contact both get worse, but the chase rates move in the opposite direction, with McLean showing the best swing decisions of the trio and Grice landing somewhere in the middle on all counts. 

This is your elevate and celebrate section, where you’ll find some of the best raw power in the class that comes with significant hit tool question marks.

Contact Or Nothing

At the opposite side of the chart we find our heavy-contact, light-power players who just so happen to also be up-the-middle defensive profiles: Jacob Wilson, Christian Knapczyk, Michael Carico, Tommy Hawke and Eddie Park. 

Each player in this cluster of bat-to-ball experts has a contact rate greater than 86% but a 90th percentile exit velocity below 102 mph. It’s important for the players in this category to have physical projection remaining, in the hopes that more power is coming, or locked in defensive profiles at premium positions.

Wilson is the most fascinating name here. He’s the highest-rated of the group with a chance to become a top-10 pick in a few months, he probably has the easiest frame to dream of more strength coming in the future and he’s also the safest bet to stick at shortstop. Another wrinkle to Wilson is the fact that his 28% chase rate stands out. It’s above-average, both for the top-200 college hitters overall and especially for this cluster of high-contact hitters, who typically also have keen batting eyes. 

For instance, Carico’s plot point is almost impossible to see on the chart because his chase rate—and the shading that corresponds to it—is so low, at just 13%, and Hawke isn’t that far behind. Is Wilson simply such a good contact hitter that he’s able to get away with expanding the zone against weaker college competition? Or is that an area of his game that will need refinement at the next level. That’s a question any team who’s debating on taking him will surely be asking themselves.

Questionable Offensive Profiles

Toward the left side of the main cluster of players, you’ll find a sliding scale of questionable offensive profiles, ranging from solid power and poor contact players to good contact and poor power profiles. The full group includes the following players, going from most to least power: Andrew Pinckney, Connor Burns, Ahuna, Cole Foster, Jack Payton, Ethan O’Donnell, Alex Mooney and Bush Jr. 

Like our previous group of high-contact hitters, this phylum of player includes a lot of up-the-middle profiles, which is a selection bias more than anything: if a player has a questionable offensive profile they are more than likely up-the-middle defenders—otherwise we’re doing something wrong. This group is a fun one to think through different organizational philosophies and think about which skill is easier to improve in pro ball. 

Teams like the Nationals, White Sox and Padres might be more inclined to chase the tools and power of players like Pinckney, Burns and Ahuna, while contact-oriented clubs like the Guardians, Blue Jays and Marlins might prefer taking a chance with the bat-to-ball skills of Bush Jr. and Mooney and worry about the power later. 

For all these players, I think you need to have confidence in your player development group to make improvements in pro ball or great comfort in them providing enough defensive value to not be quite as concerned with some of the offensive warts—ideally both.

Well-Rounded Offensive Profiles

There are three hitters who separate themselves on the positive side of this chart: Gino Groover, Nolan Schanuel and Mike Boeve—all corner players with exceptional offensive profiles to go along with fantastic performance this spring. 

Schanuel notably separated himself in this exact same way entering the season and not much has changed. He had one of the most impressive offensive years of anyone in the country, and was first or second in all three triple slash categories while hitting 19 home runs. He hits the ball hard, he doesn’t miss often and he makes solid swing decisions. It’s the holy trinity of offense, and all he had to do to get there was swing like someone from another era. 

Boeve also stood out for the same reasons in this chart as our preseason chart, with impressive contact, chase rates and exit velocity numbers. He rarely strikes out and could potentially benefit at the next level by getting the ball in the air more frequently. He’s always had a high groundball rate north of 45% and could potentially sacrifice a bit of contact for more power at the next level and still be an effective hitter given his zone control skills and contact. 

Groover is perhaps the most interesting hitter here, because he hasn’t gotten as much praise as either Schanuel or Boeve just yet, and has also managed his numbers while playing in the ACC—considerably better competition than either Schanuel or Boeve faced this spring. That makes me a bit less concerned about a higher chase rate than his two peers in this grouping. 

There are just two players on this list who meet all three of the following criteria: a 90th percentile exit velocity of 107 mph or better; a contact rate of 80% or better; a chase rate of 25% or better. Groover and Wyatt Langford.