2023 Dynasty Fantasy Positional Rankings: Pitcher
Image credit: Corbin Burnes (Photo by Kayla Wolf/Getty Images)
Pitchers are an enigmatic position in dynasty leagues. Veteran dynasty players have probably at one time or another experienced the disappointment in investing in pitching prospects. At any time it seems that a pitcher—not just developing prospects but even MLB stalwarts—can lose a season or more due to injury, with a full recovery not necessarily a guarantee. At the same time, championship teams in dynasty leagues tend to have aces in their rotation. In other words, having a deep crop of pitchers in dynasty leagues is absolutely necessary … but it’s treacherous to try to grow and cultivate a staff.
Our rankings are targeted specifically for dynasty leagues, with a focus on balancing a variety of scoring formats. The foundation for pitching begins with strikeouts and walks: maximize the former and minimize the latter. This is not just because strikeouts and (avoiding) baserunners (ie. WHIP) are common categories—but because earned run average and other ERA estimators are highly predicted by the quantity and ratio of strikeouts to walks. The goal of these positional rankings is to provide the best possible order based on an expected value of three to five years, which means older, productive veterans are discounted and may be ranked alongside or even behind prodigious talents yet to debut.
Keep all of this in mind when considering your team’s needs and the context of your league. If you are trying to compete in 2023, you should prefer Justin Verlander over Grayson Rodriguez (who we have ranked back-to-back), but some of your league mates, especially those not competing, would likely prefer Grayson Rodriguez in a trade.
We also blended starting pitchers and relief pitchers together for these rankings because we want to assess their value, irrespective of role, based on what we think is their most likely outcome on the mound. If you only want to know the ranking of relief pitchers, you can filter out the starting pitchers and the remaining relief pitchers are listed in order.
Because so many pitchers are rostered in fantasy leagues, we have expanded this list to include more than 200 pitchers.
1. Corbin Burnes, MIL
2. Gerrit Cole, NYY
3. Shane McClanahan, TBR
4. Spencer Strider, ATL
5. Sandy Alcantara, MIA
6. Aaron Nola, PHI
7. Shohei Ohtani, LAA (pitcher only)
8. Brandon Woodruff, MIL
9. Jacob deGrom, TEX
DW Target: deGrom has a reputation for being elite when on the mound—almost assuredly the best in the game right now—but he is oft-injured. This discourse has been so pervasive recently that in redraft leagues he is typically the eighth pitcher (including relievers) selected, despite being the consensus best pitcher per appearance in the game. As a result—and because he is over 30 years old—he is also being downgraded in dynasty ranks. I believe that the market is over-correcting. Even though he will be 34 years old on Opening Day, he would be expected in 2026 (his fourth season from today) to still have a K-BB% of around 23% and an ERA less than 3.50. Those are the same projections that Gerrit Cole has this year.
10. Carlos Rodon, NYY
11. Shane Bieber, CLE
12. Luis Castillo, SEA
13. Alek Manoah, TOR
14. Dylan Cease, CHW
15. Julio Urias, LAD
16. Zac Gallen, ARI
17. Max Fried, ATL
18. Zack Wheeler, PHI
19. Cristian Javier, HOU
20. Tyler Glasnow, TBR
21. Kevin Gausman, TOR
22. George Kirby, SEA
23. Max Scherzer, NYM
24. Nick Lodolo, CIN
GP Target: Over his final 14 starts in 2022, Lodolo went five or more innings 11 times. His 30% strikeout rate, .213 batting average against and 1.14 WHIP ranked seventh, 14th and 31st among qualified starters after the all-star break. Lodolo is a special lefthanded starter with a combination of good traits. His unique angle allows his fastball and slider to tunnel, and he displays unusual power on his pitch mix for a player with Lodolo’s arm slot and pitch movement profile. His ability to keep the ball on the ground is an excellent trait for a Reds starter. I’m buying Lodolo in all formats.
25. Hunter Greene, CIN
26. Justin Verlander, NYM
27. Grayson Rodriguez, BAL
28. Emmanuel Clase, CLE
29. Triston McKenzie, CLE
30. Joe Musgrove, SDP
31. Edwin Diaz, NYM
32. Framber Valdez, HOU
DW Fade: Valdez led the league with 26 quality starts in 2022 thanks to a 1.16 WHIP and 2.82 ERA. Most impressively, he led the league in groundball rate at 66.5% (Logan Webb was second among qualified starters with a 56.7% rate). Valdez will be 29 years old and, playing for the Astros, will get a lot of wins. So, why is he a fade? He is definitely a solid pitcher who should have sub 3.50 ERAs for three or more years, but in standard roto leagues, because he has a lower strikeout rate, he actually doesn’t provide as much value as one would think and his ceiling is not much higher than how he performed last year. For example, in 15-team leagues with nine pitchers rostered per team (135 pitchers drafted), by my calculations, he is “only” the 28th-best starter (and 35th overall pitcher). He is being valued much higher than that by the market. I do want to emphasize that he is still a good pitcher who has an extremely high floor.
33. Eury Perez, MIA
34. Logan Gilbert, SEA
35. Andrew Painter, PHI
36. Luis Severino, NYY
37. Dustin May, LAD
38. Blake Snell, SDP
39. Robbie Ray, SEA
40. Nestor Cortes, NYY
41. Yu Darvish, SDP
42. Logan Webb, SFG
GP Fade: To be clear I don’t dislike Webb, and for formats that use quality starts, like points leagues, Webb holds greater value due to his ability to go deeper into starts. However, his lack of swing-and-miss stuff is concerning, particularly in a season where rule changes will likely benefit lefthanded hitters who put the ball in play. Webb ranked in the bottom 15 of qualified starters in strikeout rate in 2022. To further complicate matters Webb’s splits noticeably favor right-on-right matchups, as lefties hit .262/.326/.404 against him. I’m avoiding Webb in most formats, as there are higher-upside options in the late No. 2 to No. 3 starter range in 12-team mixed leagues.
43. Josh Hader, SDP
44. Freddy Peralta, MIL
GP Target: Peralta dealt with shoulder tightness throughout the second half of 2022. It caused Peralta to drop out of the World Baseball Classic—he was slated to join the Dominican Republic roster. Despite the late season injury, Peralta has shown no rust this spring and looks poised to once again slot into the Brewers rotation behind dual aces Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff. While Peralta’s 2022 was not as valuable as his 2021 for fantasy, according to many ERA estimators he was better. A full, healthy season from Peralta might be a risky bet, but the upside is that of a top 15-20 starter in all formats.
45. Joe Ryan, MIN
46. Kyle Wright, ATL
47. Walker Buehler, LAD
48. Kodai Senga, NYM
49. Ricky Tiedemann, TOR
50. Jesus Luzardo, MIA
51. Shane Baz, TBR
52. Jordan Romano, TOR
53. Lucas Giolito, CHW
54. Hunter Brown, HOU
55. Pablo Lopez, MIA
56. Devin Williams, MIL
57. Luis Garcia, HOU
58. Aaron Ashby, MIL
59. Felix Bautista, BAL
60. Clayton Kershaw, LAD
61. Andres Munoz, SEA
62. Tony Gonsolin, LAD
63. Gavin Williams, CLE
64. Kyle Harrison, SFG
65. Ryan Helsley, STL
66. Jordan Montgomery, STL
67. Chris Sale, BOS
68. Brandon Pfaadt, ARI
69. Drew Rasmussen, TBR
70. Chris Bassitt, TOR
71. Raisel Iglesias, ATL
72. Trevor Rogers, MIA
73. Bobby Miller, LAD
74. Camilo Doval, SFG
75. Ryan Pressly, HOU
76. Brayan Bello, BOS
77. Gavin Stone, LAD
78. Edward Cabrera, MIA
79. Brady Singer, KCR
80. Jeffrey Springs, TBR
81. Reid Detmers, LAA
82. Lance Lynn, CHW
83. Andrew Heaney, TEX
84. Jose Berrios, TOR
85. Jhoan Duran, MIN
86. Patrick Sandoval, LAA
87. Clay Holmes, NYY
88. Tyler Mahle, MIN
89. Jack Flaherty, STL
90. Tarik Skubal, DET
DW Target: Assuming Skubal returns from his UCL injury in 2023 back to form, he is being undervalued. His peak projections—again, assuming he returns fully healthy—are on par with a No. 2 starter, yet he is not being valued as highly. I’m betting on a return to form.
91. David Bednar, PIT
92. Roansy Contreras, PIT
93. Mick Abel, PHI
94. Kenley Jansen, BOS
95. Garrett Whitlock, BOS
96. Sonny Gray, MIN
97. Cade Cavalli, WAS
GP Sleeper: After a tough beginning to Cavalli’s 2022 season with Triple-A Rochester, he made an adjustment to his pitch usage and saw immediate results. Cavalli leaned into his plus, possibly plus-plus curveball, using it in lieu of his fastball and slider, and it led to excellent results. In Cavalli’s final 13 starts with Rochester he racked up a 2.10 ERA, a 1.02 WHIP and a .187 opponent batting average while striking out 28.4% of batters he faced. This spring Cavalli has been clocked as high as 98 mph with his fastball while showing improved feel for his slider and changeup.
98. Tink Hence, STL
99. Jon Gray, TEX
100. MacKenzie Gore, WAS
101. Tanner Bibee, CLE
102. Jameson Taillon, CHC
103. Frankie Montas, NYY
104. Charlie Morton, ATL
105. Nathan Eovaldi, TEX
106. Alex Cobb, SFG
107. Hayden Wesneski, CHC
108. Eric Lauer, MIL
109. Justin Steele, CHC
110. Lance McCullers Jr., HOU
111. Miles Mikolas, STL
112. Merrill Kelly, ARI
113. Luis Ortiz, PIT
114. Taj Bradley, TBR
115. Ken Waldichuk, OAK
DW Sleeper: Waldichuk has been one of my favorite targets in dynasty leagues this year. Per my projections, he should peak at a strikeout percentage of 25% and a walk percentage of 8% with an ERA of about 3.70. That doesn’t sound fantastic, but it is essentially how Yu Darvish and Triston McKenzie are expected to perform this year. Because it is not elite performance (think of a Jose Quintana-type career arc)—and because he is not likely to get many wins for a subpar Athletics team—he is not being highly valued. I think that is a mistake.
116. Braxton Garrett, MIA
117. Kyle Bradish, BAL
118. Eduardo Rodriguez, DET
119. D.L. Hall, BAL
120. Mike Soroka, ATL
121. Daniel Espino, CLE
122. Sean Manaea, SFG
123. Peter Fairbanks, TBR
124. Aaron Civale, CLE
125. Zach Eflin, TBR
126. Jose Urquidy, HOU
127. Kyle Muller, OAK
128. David Peterson, NYM
129. Bryce Miller, SEA
130. Michael Kopech, CHW
131. Bailey Ober, MIN
132. Alexis Diaz, CIN
133. Dylan Lesko, SDP
134. Daniel Bard, COL
135. Tylor Megill, NYM
136. Kenta Maeda, MIN
137. Scott Barlow, KCR
138. Ryne Nelson, ARI
139. Wilmer Flores, DET
140. Paul Sewald, SEA
141. Alex Wood, SFG
142. Carlos Carrasco, NYM
143. Liam Hendriks, CHW
144. Jose Leclerc, TEX
145. Steven Matz, STL
146. Max Meyer, MIA
147. Drey Jameson, ARI
148. Tanner Houck, BOS
149. Chase Silseth, LAA
150. Ross Stripling, SFG
151. Matt Brash, SEA
152. Ranger Suarez, PHI
153. Marcus Stroman, CHC
154. Cal Quantrill, CLE
155. James Karinchak, CLE
156. A.J. Minter, ATL
157. Cody Morris, CLE
158. Tyler Anderson, LAA
159. Owen White, TEX
160. Seranthony Dominguez, PHI
161. John Means, BAL
162. Kyle Muller, OAK
163. Jackson Jobe, DET
164. Nate Pearson, TOR
165. Jack Leiter, TEX
166. Jorge Lopez, MIN
167. Brock Porter, TEX
168. Jose Quintana, NYM
169. Gordon Graceffo, STL
170. Brusdar Graterol, LAD
171. Daniel Hudson, LAD
172. Adbert Alzolay, CHC
173. Jake Eder, MIA
174. Ryan Pepiot, LAD
175. Quinn Priester, PIT
176. Matthew Liberatore, STL
177. Jacob Misiorowski, MIL
178. Robert Gasser, MIL
179. Jarlin Susana, SDP
180. Zach Plesac, CLE
181. Josiah Gray, WAS
182. Jose Suarez, LAA
183. Jason Adam, TBR
184. Mitch Keller, PIT
185. Cade Horton, CHC
186. Brandon Hughes, CHC
187. Giovanny Gallegos, STL
188. Spencer Turnbull, DET
189. Noah Syndergaard, LAD
190. Mason Miller, OAK
191. Griff McGarry, PHI
192. Kendall Graveman, CHW
193. Graham Ashcraft, CIN
194. Garrett Crochet, CHW
195. Taijuan Walker, PHI
196. AJ Smith-Shawver, ATL
197. Bryan Abreu, HOU
198. Martin Perez, TEX
199. Bubba Chandler, PIT
200. Diego Castillo, SEA
201. Rafael Montero, HOU
202. Connor Prielipp, MIN
203. Brandon Barriera, TOR
204. Prelander Berroa, SEA
205. Keegan Thompson, CHC
206. Collin McHugh, ATL
207. Nick Martinez, SDP
208. Alex Vesia, LAD
209. Joey Wentz, ATL
210. Owen Murphy, ATL
211. Craig Kimbrel, PHI
212. Landon Sims, ARI
213. A.J. Puk, MIA
214. Jose Alvarado, PHI
215. Kyle Finnegan, WAS
216. Carlos Estevez, LAA
217. Trevor May, OAK
218. Reynaldo Lopez, CHW
219. Robert Suarez, SDP
220. Clarke Schmidt, NYY
The Next Prospects: who will be next to join the list?
1. Yosver Zulueta, TOR (55/High)
2. Blake Walston, ARI (55/High)
3. Luis Serna, NYY (55 Very/High)
4. Dax Fulton, MIA (50/High)
5. Ky Bush, LAA (50/High)
6. Mason Montgomery, TBR (50/High)
7. Gunnar Hoglund, OAK (50/High)
8. Robby Snelling, SDP (55/Extreme)
9. Hayden Juenger (50/High)
10. Ben Kudrna, KCR (50/High)
11. Jacob Miller, MIA (50/High)
12. Bryan Mata, BOS (50/High)
13. Daniel Palencia, CHC (50/High)
14. Nick Nastrini, LAD (50/High)
15. Taylor Dollard, SEA (50/High)
16. Nick Frasso, LAD (50/High)
17. Noah Schultz, CHW (55/Extreme)
18. Landen Roupp, SFG (50/High)
19. Frank Mozzicato, KCR (50/High)
20. Emmet Sheehan, LAD (50/High)
21. Sean Burke, CHW (50/High)
22. Marco Raya, MIN (55/Extreme)
23. Ty Madden, DET (50/High)
24. Keaton Winn, SFG (50/High)
25. Victor Lizarraga, SDP (50/High)
26. Cristian Mena, CHW (50/High)
27. Emerson Hancock, SEA (50/High)
28. Gabriel Hughes, COL (50/High)
29. Jordy Vargas, COL (55/Extreme)
30. Jackson Rutledge, WAS (50/High)
31. Cole Wilcox, TBR (50/High)
32. Peyton Pallette, CHW (55/Extreme)
33. David Festa, MIN (50/High)
34. Adam Mazur, SDP (50/High)
35. Matt Canterino, MIN (50/High)
36. Carson Seymour, SFG (50/High)
37. Jackson Ferris, CHC (55/Extreme)
38. Norge Vera, CHW (55/Extreme)
39. Will Warren, NYY (50/High)
40. Jackson Cox, COL (55/Extreme)
41. Erik Miller, SFG (50/High)
42. Carson Whisenhunt, SFG (50/High)
43. Mason Black, SFG (50/High)
44. Drew Thorpe, NYY (50/High)
45. Mike Burrows, PIT (50/High)
46. Randy Vasquez, NYY (50/High)
47. Bryan Woo, SEA (50/High)
48. Jake Bennett, WAS (50/High)
49. Thomas Harrington, PIT (50/High)
50. Jared Jones, PIT (50/High)
51. Chase Petty, CIN (50/High)
52. Connor Phillips, CIN (50/High)
53. Anthony Solometo, PIT (50/High)
54. J.T. Ginn, OAK (50/High)
55. Brandon Williamson, CIN (50/High)
56. Slade Cecconi, ARI (50/High)
57. Eric Silva, SFG (50/High)
58. Cole Winn, TEX (50/High)
59. Levi Stoudt, CIN (50/High)
60. Kyle Nicolas, PIT (50/High)
61. Mitch Bratt, TEX (50/High)
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