2022 MLB Mock Draft Version 5.0

Image credit: Druw Jones (Mike Janes/Four Seam)

It’s finally July and that means the draft is right around the corner.

It’s a unique time on the calendar, however, as the college season is in the rearview mirror, but the scouting industry is largely spending time getting their first in-depth looks at the 2023 draft class. There are plenty of scouts in Cary, N.C., at USA Baseball’s National Training Complex to see the top high school players in the 2023 class take part in the PDP League, and the College National Team is currently playing in Cary and Durham, N.C. as well, giving teams a look at the top college talent for 2023.

At the same time, many scouts are in the Cape Cod League to get looks at high-profile college players beyond the CNT roster. Some teams have started having draft meetings for the 2022 draft, but in many cases those will get more in-depth and completed after the PDP League is wrapped and once high-level decision makers travel to their org’s respective war rooms.

Because of that timing, and the fact that many of the top 2022 prospects are currently done playing, there’s not much in the way of new information going around or massive changes to V 5.0 compared to V 4.0 at the beginning of the month.

Perhaps after teams have meetings and start to fine tune draft boards, check on signability and look to their left and right to see what their peers are up to—more information will start to come out.

Until then, here is our best forecast of the first round based on what we are hearing:

1. Orioles — Druw Jones, OF, Wesleyan HS, Norcross, Ga.

Total Bonus Pool: $16,924,000

Pick Slot Value: $8,842,200

The same group of names continue to be linked to the Orioles, with no one having much confidence in which direction Mike Elias is leaning for the No. 1 pick. That group seems to include Druw Jones, Jackson Holliday, Elijah Green, Termarr Johnson, Brooks Lee and Jacob Berry. I haven’t heard Berry’s name linked quite as much lately but I am assuming he is still solidly in the mix of players Baltimore is thinking about.

My gut tells me this is going to be a high school player, but I will reiterate my comments from the previous mock draft: I have low confidence in what Baltimore is going to do and don’t expect to have much in the way of clarity moving forward. This is how it operates up top. Jones feels like the most likely pick considering he’s the best player in the class, so he’s the pick for now.

With almost $2 million more in pool money than the No. 2 team (D-backs) do the Orioles really need to cut a deal with the first pick to get creative later? I don’t think so. They will have a lot of money to work with regardless.

2. D-Backs — Jackson Holliday, SS, Stillwater (Okla.) HS

Total Bonus Pool: $15,112,100

Pick Slot Value: $8,185,100

If Jones goes No. 1 I think Arizona would select from a group that includes Holliday, Termarr Johnson, Cal Poly shortstop Brooks Lee and Georgia Tech catcher Kevin Parada. If Johnson doesn’t go in this spot, there’s a chance he could wind up more in the 6-8 range than with one of the teams picking in the 3-5 hole. The industry seems pretty confident that Jackson Holliday goes among the first three picks and because of that I’m making him the pick for Arizona here—although again, we heard this same sort of chatter with Marcelo Mayer a year ago and he slipped to No. 4.

3. Rangers — Elijah Green, OF, IMG Academy, Bradenton, Fla.

Total Bonus Pool: $9,640,700

Pick Slot Value: $7,587,600

This feels like the floor for Jackson Holliday based on how much the Rangers seem to like him. He doesn’t make it to their pick in this mock, so they will have to settle for the biggest pure upside player in the class in Elijah Green. I still wouldn’t be surprised if Texas goes for one of the best college prospects on the board in Brooks Lee or Kevin Parada and both are available here.

4. Pirates — Cam Collier, 3B, Chipola (Fla.) JC

Total Bonus Pool: $13,733,900

Pick Slot Value: $7,002,100

Collier has plenty of buzz and increasingly looks like a lock to go inside the top 10 picks. There are a few teams picking towards the back of the top 10 who are enamored with Collier, but Pittsburgh has been doing plenty of work on the 17-year-old pure hitter as well and he sounds like an increasingly legitimate option at No. 4.

5. Nationals — Kevin Parada, C, Georgia Tech

Total Bonus Pool: $11,007,900

Pick Slot Value: $6,494,300

Parada has happened to fall into the five-spot with the Nationals in back-to-back mock drafts. It’s very hard to put any other player in this spot here given how the board has developed and the chatter in the industry that has linked Parada to Washington. The talent fits here, it sounds like Washington higher ups were spending a lot of time on the backstop and there’s no other option that makes more sense in my opinion. I won’t overcomplicate things.

6. Marlins — Termarr Johnson, SS, Mays HS, Atlanta

Total Bonus Pool: $10,486,000

Pick Slot Value: $6,034,300

The best pure hitter in the class has a few potential landing spots in this range on the board and in this mock we have the Marlins scooping up a talent that could have easily gone sooner—similar to a year ago with Kahlil Watson, though the two are very different players.

7. Cubs — Brooks Lee, SS, Cal Poly

Total Bonus Pool: $10,092,700

Pick Slot Value: $5,708,000

This could be a bummer scenario for the Cubs, as both Collier and Johnson come off the board in front of them. It sounds like the Cubs are high on both lefthanded bats and if either fell to them they would probably scoop them up. Collier has been mentioned most frequently at this spot and more recently with Pittsburgh at four. With neither available we have the Cubs taking another polished, pure hitter in Brooks Lee.

8. Twins — Jacob Berry, 1B/3B, Louisiana State

Total Bonus Pool: $10,092,700

Pick Slot Value: $5,708,000

If both Termarr Johnson and Cam Collier make it to the Cubs in front of the Twins, perhaps Minnesota would grab whichever of the two Chicago doesn’t take. That’s not an option in this mock, however, and Jacob Berry and Gavin Cross are consistently mentioned in this range on the board. Would Minnesota pass on a college player and instead take a shot on a high school bat like J.T. Williams or Justin Crawford? Those are other names who could make sense here.

9. Royals — Gavin Cross, OF, Virginia Tech

Total Bonus Pool: $11,668,300

Pick Slot Value: $5,200,200

We’re playing it safer with Kansas City in this spot than our previous mock, when we put Henry Bolte here. Cross has plenty of power and a bat that falls to this spot still feels more likely than dipping into the pitching pool.

10. Rockies — Jace Jung, 2B, Texas Tech

Total Bonus Pool: $13,660,700

Pick Slot Value: $4,980,400

Of the players mocked inside the top 10 picks, Jung seems most likely to slide thanks to some bad looks down the stretch. Still, he seems like the exact sort of player who gets moved up a board once a full room of scouts sits down and looks over his collegiate production, which is exceptional: .328/.468 /.647, 39 home runs, 32 doubles and 126 walks (19.9 BB%) to 102 strikeouts (16.1 K%). There’s something to say for taking a safe college hitter at the top of the draft and Jung hits for average, has great on-base skills and has power—while hitting lefthanded and sticking on the infield. I suppose I am still skeptical of how far that package of skills falls and think he goes in a pretty good spot on draft day.

11. Mets — Jett Williams, SS/OF, Rockwall-Heath HS, Rockwall, Texas

Total Bonus Pool: $13,955,700

Pick Slot Value: $4,778,200

If Jung does slip outside of the top 10 picks, I don’t think New York takes him. I’ve heard it linked more to high-risk, high-reward profiles and one of those is Williams—who has excellent hands, athleticism, speed and an up-the-middle defensive profile. It sounds like the Mets really like Williams and he has gotten plenty of buzz in the 10-15 range, generally.

12. Tigers — Justin Crawford, OF, Bishop Gorman HS, Las Vegas

Total Bonus Pool: $8,024,900

Pick Slot Value: $4,587,900

Similar to Williams, Crawford gets a ton of play in this range and it would be surprising for him to fall outside of the teens at this point. He has a great body, good bat-to-ball skills, premium running ability and power projection to dream on. All with big league bloodlines. It wouldn’t be surprising to see Brock Porter here or a college bat like Jung or Cross if they fall here.

13. Angels — Kumar Rocker, RHP, Tri-City (Frontier)

Total Bonus Pool: $7,024,300

Pick Slot Value: $4,410,200

This is an aggressive selection for the Angels, because despite Kumar Rocker showing perhaps the best pure stuff in the class—he remains a huge wild card. His medical situation (or perhaps more accurately the mystery surrounding it) could make him a better option for a team’s second pick as an overpay, but it’s hard to shake how loudly scouts have been raving about the stuff coming out of his hand. Rocker could also be the perfect pitcher to get in an organization and move rapidly up towards the majors, with the stuff to pitch in a pen and the control and repertoire to start. Florida high school lefthander Brandon Barriera is getting a lot of chatter in the middle of the first round and might fit here, as could Brock Porter or a college bat like Zach Neto or Daniel Susac. Gabriel Hughes and Jacob Miller are other names we’ve heard linked to the Angels.

14. Mets — Brock Porter, RHP, St. Mary Prep, Orchard Lake, Mich.

Total Bonus Pool: $13,955,700

Pick Slot Value: $4,241,600

Porter is the highest-ranked pitcher in the class, just edging out injured righthander Dylan Lesko for that honor. He had a strong spring, possesses two potential 70-grade pitches in his fastball and changeup and throws two solid breaking balls as well. There’s tons of upside here, and perhaps most importantly, a clean bill of health. We’ve consistently heard Porter linked to the Mets so we’ll stick with that here.

15. Padres — Cole Young, SS, North Allegheny HS, Wexford, Pa.

Total Bonus Pool: $10,088,900

Pick Slot Value: $4,082,900

Lots of high school names linked to the Padres, as always. We’ve heard they like Cole Young a good bit, and it would make sense for them to be on players like Justin Crawford and Jett Williams as well, though in this mock those two players are off the board. So we’ll go with the polished hitting ability and refined all-around game of Young—who still gets some chatter much higher than this spot and might also be off the board before this pick. Any of the pitchers on the board could make sense as well, including Dylan Lesko, Robby Snelling and Brandon Barriera. They’ve scouted Rocker fairly heavily so if he’s on the board perhaps he’s an option as well.

16. Guardians — Zach Neto, SS, Campbell

Total Bonus Pool: $9,980,900

Pick Slot Value: $3,935,500

Neto checks a lot of boxes for all teams, but as we’ve mentioned before he makes a lot of sense to a team like Cleveland. Cole Young could make sense for the same reason if he’s on the board, as could James Madison outfielder Chase DeLauter or perhaps a college pitcher like Oklahoma State lefthander Jake Bennett as more of a further down the board potential under-slot option.

17. Phillies — Brandon Barriera, LHP, American Heritage HS, Plantation, Fla.

Total Bonus Pool: $6,307,000

Pick Slot Value: $3,792,800

It’s hard to put a floor on high school pitchers in any draft class, but given how the pitching has broken down in 2022 and how scouts have been talking about Barriera’s electric left hand, maybe this range is the lower end for him. He’s certainly getting a lot of play before this pick, but could fit here if he’s available on the board. The Phillies were jammed in pretty hard to see Gonzaga righthander Gabriel Hughes late in the year, but that’s when he had some of his worst outings as well.

18. Reds — Dylan Lesko, RHP, Buford (Ga.) HS

Total Bonus Pool: $10,794,100

Pick Slot Value: $3,657,900

If Cole Young is still on the board at this spot he could make some sense to the Reds and has been linked to them, but Young is getting plenty of heat in front of this spot as well—though Cincinnati has the pool money to bully teams around in front if it chooses to do so. An infielder would make a lot of sense here, but there’s a chance no one that fits on talent (Zach Neto, Jace Jung, Cole Young, Jett Williams have landing spots in front) makes it to No. 18. So let’s give the Reds the biggest upside player available on the board here in Lesko—though taking an under-slot college player here and then floating Lesko to one of their next picks on an over-slot deal could make sense as well.

19. A’s — Daniel Susac, C, Arizona State

Total Bonus Pool: $8,315,800

Pick Slot Value: $3,529,400

This range on the board is where even educated guesses start to feel much more like guessing than anything educated. Oakland has been linked with plenty of college hitters and Daniel Susac is still available in this mock, so this is as good a place as any to get him off the board—and his near 1.000 career OPS at Arizona as a catcher feels like pretty good value in the back half of the first round.

20. Braves — Cade Horton, RHP, Oklahoma

Total Bonus Pool: $8,022,200

Pick Slot Value: $3,407,400

Sure, this could be pretty rich for a pitcher who has thrown just 53.2 career innings in his career, but as one scout recently said: “which college pitcher has better stuff than Horton?” A fair point. As we detailed earlier this week, no player has moved up boards as aggressively as Horton and he seems like a lock to go among the top two rounds if he wants to sign. The Braves took a high-octane righthander coming off Tommy John surgery in the 2020 draft and that selection has looked fantastic—although taking Spencer Strider in the fifth round is admittedly a much different sort of risk than making a similar move with your first-round pick.

21. Mariners — Carson Whisenhunt, LHP, East Carolina

Total Bonus Pool: $7,254,400

Pick Slot Value: $3,291,200

Yes, Whisenhunt currently has an ERA over 10.00 in the Cape Cod League, but there’s a reason we don’t strictly scout box scores. His strikeout and walk numbers are excellent and it sounds like his stuff has been explosive in recent outings as well. Whisenhunt is still a wild card, but unlike most players in this mock, he still has opportunities to keep pushing himself up boards.

22. Cardinals — Chase DeLauter, OF, James Madison

Total Bonus Pool: $6,842,300

Pick Slot Value: $3,180,600

Plenty of college bats should start coming off the board around this range, and Chase DeLauter’s tools would be a fascinating pairing with a St. Louis hitting group that really seems to have things figured out.

23. Blue Jays — Drew Gilbert, OF, Tennessee

Total Bonus Pool: $8,367,700

Pick Slot Value: $3,075,300

Toronto has been tied to a number of high school players, but there aren’t really many that make much sense on the board at this spot, unless it is in on someone like Robby Snelling or Tucker Toman—both of whom get mentioned in this general range. Instead let’s go with Gilbert, who’s tooled-up and was a fantastic performer this spring for the best team in college baseball.

24. Red Sox — Sterlin Thompson, OF, Florida

Total Bonus Pool: $8,078,300

Pick Slot Value: $2,974,900

Boston has targeted hitterish preps in recent years and its picks have looked pretty good between Triston Casas, Nick Yorke, Blaze Jordan and Marcelo Mayer. With no clear prep bat to tie it to here, how about one of the more hitterish of the college outfielders available in Sterlin Thompson.

25. Yankees — Dylan Beavers, OF, California

Total Bonus Pool: $6,425,100

Pick Slot Value: $2,879,300

New York might really like for a prep like Cole Young or Justin Crawford to fall to this pick, but neither player seems likely to make it this far. It’ll be hilarious if the Yankees take a high school pitcher after constantly being linked to college bats throughout the entire spring—but how about another college bat in Dylan Beavers? And a lefthanded hitter with power at that. Gabriel Hughes might be an interesting pick here as well.

26. White Sox — Gabriel Hughes, RHP, Gonzaga

Total Bonus Pool: $6,289,100

Pick Slot Value: $2,788,000

The White Sox get linked to bats plenty, but I think it’s just as likely that they go after a college arm, and they could be thrilled to get Hughes at this spot after he stumbled down the stretch. At one point he was a favorite to be the first college pitcher off the board and he checks a lot of boxes with size, youth and power stuff.

27. Brewers — Cooper Hjerpe, LHP, Oregon State

Total Bonus Pool: $7,070,900

Pick Slot Value: $2,700,500

A data-oriented pitcher like Hjerpe just makes too much sense with a team like the Brewers to not make this connection. At this point on the board there are players from every demographic who could make sense, though we have mostly tagged them with college players this spring. The Brewers haven’t taken a first round high schooler since Brice Turang in 2018.

28. Astros — Blade Tidwell, RHP, Tennessee

Total Bonus Pool: $6,837,000

Pick Slot Value: $2,620,400

Tidwell’s range seems fairly wide, though he has a few potential landing spots in the back of the first round. He’s a power-armed righthander who at one point was viewed as one of the best college pitchers in the class. How teams view his shoulder injury early in the year and his inconsistencies this spring is hard to gauge, but few pitchers have his physicality and power stuff.

29. Rays — Robby Snelling, LHP, McQueen HS, Reno, Nev.

Total Bonus Pool: $7,795,100

Pick Slot Value: $2,547,600

Snelling has options throughout the back half of the first round, but it’s typically the right move to fade high school pitchers as we approach the draft and it’s also been the right move to pair the Rays with power-armed high school pitchers. Perhaps that’s the case this year as well.

30. Giants — Jacob Melton, OF, Oregon State

Total Bonus Pool: $5,793,200

Pick Slot Value: $2,485,500

Melton checks a lot of boxes with strong performance, power, speed and an up-the-middle profile. He’s getting plenty of action late in the first round and fits within this group of college outfielders we have going off the board in the 22-38 range.

31. Rockies — Brock Jones, OF, Stanford

Total Bonus Pool: $13,660,700

Pick Slot Value: $2,429,300

32. Reds — Justin Campbell, RHP, Oklahoma State

Total Bonus Pool: $10,794,100

Pick Slot Value: $2,371,800

33. Orioles — Peyton Graham, SS, Oklahoma

Total Bonus Pool: $16,924,000

Pick Slot Value: $2,313,900

34. D-Backs — Tucker Toman, 3B, Hammond HS, Columbia, S.C.

Total Bonus Pool: $15,112,100

Pick Slot Value: $2,257,100