2022 Missouri Valley Conference College Baseball Preview

Image credit: DBU's dugout celebrates (Photo by Will Becque)

The Missouri Valley Conference in 2021 continued its run as one of the best mid-major baseball conferences in America. It got two teams, Dallas Baptist and Indiana State, into regionals, making it the fourth consecutive year that it has gotten at least two teams into the postseason.

It also very nearly had its first College World Series team since Missouri State—then known as Southwest Missouri State—got to Omaha in 2003, with DBU falling one win short against Virginia in a super regional played in Columbia, S.C.

DBU again enters the season as the conference title favorite, and in 2022, it feels a bit more like a prohibitive favorite than in years past, even as it lost the MVC player of the year Jackson Glenn and its two top starting pitchers this offseason.

Which team ends up being DBU’s biggest foil this season remains to be seen, with the even bigger question being whether that foil, be it a perennial contender like Indiana State or someone else, will be good enough to be in the postseason discussion at the end of the season.

Last season, the MVC went to four-game weekend series in conference play. This season, it is reverting back to the standard three-game series format.

Preseason Awards

Player of the Year: Jace Grady, OF, Dallas Baptist

The 2022 season will mark the first time that Grady, a third-year sophomore center fielder, will go into the campaign expecting to be the centerpiece of the DBU lineup, but with his performance last season and over the summer in the Cape Cod League, he looks prepared for the role. Last spring, he hit .337/.417/.534 with 17 doubles, four home runs, 40 RBIs and 15 stolen bases. On the Cape, he appeared to take a step forward from a power perspective, hitting .348 with six home runs in just 89 at-bats, all while continuing to be a threat on the bases with seven steals. Given his bat-to-ball skills, his above-average speed and good feel for playing center field, it’s no surprise that Grady is the favorite to win MVC player of the year honors and to be the first player in the conference to have his name called at the 2022 draft, especially if his improved power production from the summer carries over into this season.

Pitcher of the Year: Shane Gray, RHP, Evansville

After an offseason when most of the MVC’s top workhorse starting pitchers from the 2021 season graduated or moved on to professional baseball, Evansville fourth-year junior righthander Shane Gray stands out as the top returning starter on the board. Last season, he went 6-3 with a 3.38 ERA and a .228 opponent batting average in 88.2 innings of work. Gray’s fastball won’t blow you away with velocity, as it sat just a tick under 90 mph last season and touched 93, but at 2,900 rpm, the spin profile of the pitch helps it play up. He pairs the fastball with a 12-to-6 breaking ball that represents his best swing-and-miss offspeed pitch and a usable changeup. With an otherwise inexperienced projected weekend rotation, Gray pitching to the top of his potential would be massive for an Evansville team looking to make a move up the MVC standings.

Freshman of the Year: Ryan Johnson, RHP, Dallas Baptist

Johnson, No. 188 on the BA 500 ahead of last year’s draft, was the highest-profile recruit in a 2021 DBU recruiting class that ranked No. 18 in the country. Though he arrives on campus with two-way ability, the expectation is that Johnson will have the biggest impact, both in the short and long term, on the mound. A physical presence at 6-foot-6 and just over 200 pounds, Johnson ran his fastball up to 96 mph during his prep days, pairing that high-end velocity with a slider and a changeup. With a crowded rotation competition at DBU underway, Johnson won’t be guaranteed a prominent role right out of the gate, but his immense talent should help him elbow his way into important innings in 2022.

Predicted Order of Finish (2021 record)

1. Dallas Baptist (41-18, 18-6)

The Patriots continued their run of excellence in 2021, winning the MVC regular-season title by four games, winning the MVC tournament title, winning the Fort Worth Regional over Oregon State and host Texas Christian and coming up just one win short of their first trip to Omaha. That should continue into 2022, as they are runaway favorites for the conference crown again. The DBU lineup will put up runs in bunches, because it always puts up runs in bunches, and it helps that it returns five regulars in fourth-year sophomore catcher Ryan Wrobleski (.252/.333/.472), fourth-year junior first baseman Cole Moore (.329/.429/.606), fourth-year sophomore third baseman Andrew Benefield (.280/.371/.482), fifth-year senior shortstop Blayne Jones (.223/.298/.465) and third-year sophomore center fielder Jace Grady (.337/.417/.534). Also helping this unit is the addition of Texas Tech transfer DH Nate Rombach (.222/.359/.521), a third-year sophomore who hit 15 home runs in 59 games spread over two seasons in Lubbock, and junior college transfer second baseman Miguel Santos, who hit .344/.408/.626 for national title-winning McLennan (Texas) CC last season.

With the departure of Dom Hamel and Rhett Kouba, things are a bit more unsettled in the weekend rotation, but that doesn’t mean that DBU doesn’t have quality options available. Third-year sophomore TCU transfer righthander Jacob Meador (5.68 ERA, 19 IP), fourth-year junior Tennessee transfer righthander Elijah Pleasants (4.37 ERA, 22.2 IP), fourth-year junior righthander Chandler Arnold (3.94 ERA, 29.2 IP) and freshman righthander Ryan Johnson are among those who will get first crack at locking down rotation spots. Meador and Pleasants both have big-time velocity but neither was able to secure a starting spot full-time in their respective previous locations. If they can better harness their stuff in 2022, they could become two of the best starters in the MVC right away. The bullpen returns its most trusted arm from last season in fifth-year senior lefthander Peyton Sherlin (2.93 ERA, 40 IP). Look for fourth-year sophomore righthander Kyle Amendt, who missed all of last season with injury after transferring from the junior college ranks, to play a big role on the back end as well.

2. Indiana State (31-21, 14-10)

Under Mitch Hannahs, Indiana State has done an incredible job of rebuilding year after year, and that ability will be tested again this season, particularly on the mound, where the Sycamores lost the pitchers who started 50 of their 52 games a season ago, including MVC pitcher of the year Geremy Guerrero. The top candidate to lead the rotation is third-year sophomore righthander Matt Jachec (4.58 ERA, 17.2 IP). He pitched just once before late April last season, but came on strong late and pitched well in the MVC Tournament and in regionals. He also showed well in a cup of coffee in the Cape Cod League late in the summer, giving up one run in 13 innings. He works with a low-90s fastball that has a lot of movement thanks to his ability to manipulate the pitch and a slider that had a greater than 40% whiff rate last season in a relatively small sample. Graduate transfer righthander Jack Parisi from Division III Spalding (Ky.) is also in good shape for a rotation spot. Last season at Spalding, he struck out 96 in 75.2 innings and had a 1.67 ERA. There are a few wild cards to watch on the mound, including sophomore righthander Cole Gilley, who can run his fastball into the mid 90s, but none is likely to have more bearing on how the pitching staff performs than fourth-year junior righthander Connor Fenlong (3.06 ERA, 35.1 IP). The coaching staff hopes there are enough pitchers who earned spots in the rotation to allow Fenlong to return to the closer’s role in 2022, but if that doesn’t happen, there is confidence that he could be stretched out to start games.

Much more is known in the lineup. Three key pieces departed after last season in catcher Max Wright, the leading home run hitter in 2021, third baseman Brian Fuentes and outfielder Ellison Hanna II, but the rest of the regulars return. That group is led by fifth-year senior shortstop Jordan Schaffer (.367/.432/.521) and fifth-year senior left fielder Aaron Beck (.319/.367/.474), but also features third-year sophomore second baseman Josue Urdaneta (.270/.335/.332), fifth-year senior first baseman Miguel Rivera (.257/.445/.429) and fifth-year senior center fielder Sean Ross (.248/.326/.312). Fully, Indiana State returns nine players who started 22 or more games last season, so there is also experience among those who will be moving from part-time players to full-time roles this season. If he’s healthy—a foot injury kept him off the field for much of the fall—Western Carolina grad transfer outfielder Daylan Nanny (.306/.421/.440) will also bring some pop to the lineup.

3. Illinois State (23-34, 12-15)

Myriad injuries last season conspired to keep a veteran Illinois State team from living up to its potential, but there’s hope that 2022 will represent a bounce back year, even as many of those veterans have moved on. The Redbirds lost ace lefthander Colton Johnson, but still manage to return arguably the most proven one-two rotation punch in the conference in third-year sophomore righthander Jordan Lussier (6-3, 4.36) and fourth-year sophomore lefthander Sean Sinisko (5-5, 4.44). They’ll be joined in the rotation by sophomore righthander Mason Burns (9.82 ERA, 3.2 IP), who has the biggest arm of the three, with a fastball that reaches the mid 90s, but who also missed significant time last season with injury. Fourth-year junior righthander Derek Salata (4.95 ERA, 36.1 IP) could be another starting option or could return to the bullpen, where he saved six games last season. After injuries sapped bullpen depth in 2021, that could actually be an area of strength in 2022. The closer’s role will likely go to one of two third-year sophomore righthanders with big arms, Ryan Cermak or Charlotte transfer Kolton Scherbenske (9.75 ERA, 12 IP). Cermak is a two-way player who hasn’t pitched at ISU, but he got on the mound in the fall and showed a fastball from 93-96 mph and a swing-and-miss curveball. Scherbenske’s fastball sits in the low 90s, touching the mid 90s, and though his numbers last season at Charlotte weren’t pretty, he proved to be effective in stretches when he threw strikes. Third-year sophomore righthander Erik Kubiatowicz (6.75 ERA, 25.1 IP), whose spin rates on his fastball and slider are the best on the team, is another experienced option in the mix for relief innings and should provide more depth alongside fifth-year junior lefthander Jared Hart (8.69 ERA, 19.2 IP) and third-year sophomore righthander Cameron Mabee (9.22 ERA, 27.1 IP).

Offensively, Cermak (.284/.349/.553) will make the lineup go. A true preseason contender for MVC player of the year honors, Cermak is a good athlete who hits for power, runs a 6.35-second sixty-yard dash and has the arm and instincts to play center field. Fifth-year junior first baseman Jake McCaw (.367/.424/.506) is also coming off of a massive year at the plate and will look to solidify the middle of the order with Cermak. Sixth-year senior second baseman Kyle Soberano (.284/.381/.385) and fifth-year senior left fielder Aidan Huggins (.273/.361/.414), who are both skilled enough to play positions all over the field, aren’t the toolsiest players but both will provide a steady presence in the lineup and defensively. Part of the shuffle on the infield that resulted in Huggins moving to the outfield has to do with the fall performance of junior college transfer shortstop Greg Nichols, who played his way into getting first crack at the starting job. Breakout candidates include sixth-year senior third baseman Nick Gile (.206/.276/.290), a physical player with significant raw power, and redshirt freshman right fielder Jonathan Sabotnik, who impressed his coaches and teammates alike with his performance last year in practice as he was taking a redshirt year.

4. Southern Illinois (40-20, 15-13)

With a 40-win season for the first time since 1990, the 2021 season represented a breakthrough for Southern Illinois, even if it didn’t end in the first postseason appearance since 1990. To keep the momentum going in the right direction, the Salukis will have to rebuild the lineup on the fly after losing eight players who started 23 or more games, including four who started 58 or more. The returners in the lineup are fifth-year senior center fielder J.T. Weber (.322/.375/.589), who hit 15 home runs last season, fourth-year junior third baseman Cody Cleveland (.346/.453/.526), fourth-year sophomore right fielder Evan Martin (.261/.321/.433) and fifth-year senior second baseman Grey Epps (.217/.298/.383). Weber gives SIU an obvious preseason MVC player of the year candidate, while Cleveland will look to pick up where he left off last season, when he had five three-hit games over his final 10 games played. Much of the rest of the lineup will be filled out by junior college transfers, which Lance Rhodes and his staff recruit extensively, perhaps none more exciting than shortstop Kaeber Rog. Originally at Florida International out of high school, the Curacao native made a stopover at Eastern Florida State College before arriving in Carbondale. A talented defender at shortstop, Rog will also bring pop from both sides of the plate to his spot at the top of the order.

Experience is easier to come by on the mound, where fifth-year senior righthander Noah Farmer (6-4, 2.98) will look to take over the Friday starter role after joining the rotation around the start of MVC play last season. He’s a strike-thrower who leads with a heavy sinker he throws in the mid-to-high 80s. Also returning to the rotation is fourth-year junior righthander Ben Chapman (7-5, 3.97). He throws a high-80s fastball with a changeup that had a greater than 40% whiff rate last season. Fourth-year junior righthander Mike Hansell (2-2, 5.21) spent most of last season in the rotation, but he might end up pitching in the midweek in deference to junior college transfer lefthander Jordan Bloemer, who struck out 113 in 84 innings at Kaskaskia (Ill.) College last season. In the bullpen, SIU brings back a returning closer as good as any in the league in fifth-year senior righthander Trey McDaniel (3.07 ERA, 44 IP), a sinker-slider specialist. Fourth-year junior righthander Matthew Steidl (7.48 ERA, 27.2 IP) could improve the ceiling of SIU’s bullpen if he bounces back. He was lights out during the shortened 2020 season, but never really got going in 2021. Now, after an outstanding summer in the Coastal Plain League, where he showed a low-90s fastball, he’ll look to return to form.

5. Missouri State (21-23, 11-13)

Last season’s Missouri State team often pitched well enough to win, with a 4.66 team ERA that was right in the middle of the pack in the MVC, but an offense that was next to last in batting average (.250) and home runs (32) hamstrung the team on the way to sub-.500 records overall and in conference play. In trying to improve its offensive fortunes, it’ll help to have the return of fifth-year junior left fielder Cam Cratic (.309/.396/.353), third-year sophomore catcher Drake Baldwin (.291/.411/.446) and fourth-year junior second baseman Mason Hull (.313/.384/.444), who showed a ton of improvement over his previous two seasons from an offensive standpoint after joining the lineup for good in April last season. To really be a better lineup, however, the Bears will need more consistency from fourth-year junior DH Jaden Rolffs (.203/.262/.466) and fourth-year junior right fielder Dakota Kotowski (.199/.276/.346). Rolffs led the team with 10 home runs in just 133 at-bats last season, so the power is obvious, but his ability to get on base will have to improve to make him a more complete threat. Kotowski is one of the most talented players in the MVC, and he won the league’s freshman of the year award in 2019, but he really never got it going last season. His production getting back to anything close to its 2019 level would be a huge boon for the MSU lineup. A group of transfers, both of the Division I and junior college variety, also promises an injection of talent on the position player side of things, led by local product Will Duff, a third-year sophomore shortstop from Vanderbilt who will bring athleticism and an ability to play multiple positions to the infield.

Despite losing key pieces on the mound like Logan Wiley, Hayden Juenger and Matt Russell, there is still a lot of reason to believe that MSU will pitch well, beyond the fact that it always seems to do so. Fourth-year junior righthander Jared Viertel (1-5, 3.53) will lead the rotation, to be followed by sixth-year senior righthander Jake McMahill (5-4, 4.22), a transfer from Evansville, and fourth-year junior righthander Forrest Barnes (4.71 ERA, 21 IP), who will move from the bullpen to the rotation. Fifth-year junior righthander Trey Ziegenbein (3.77 ERA, 57.1 IP) will anchor the bullpen, where he will be joined by fifth-year senior righthander Adam Link (4.40 ERA, 14.1 IP), a transfer from Middle Tennessee State. Like Duff, Link is a Springfield, Mo. product coming home after spending time at a program in Tennessee to begin his career.

6. Bradley (20-22, 12-10)

Bradley brings back quite a bit of talent from what was a fairly well-rounded team in 2021. In fourth-year junior first baseman Connor O’Brien (.366/.452/.549), the Braves have an MVC player of the year contender to anchor the lineup. He’ll be supported by sophomore left fielder Jackson Chatterton (.261/.323/.430), who played every day at second base last season, third-year sophomore center fielder Ryan Vogel (.248/.347/.315), who led Bradley with 15 stolen bases in 2021, and sophomore shortstop TJ Manteufel (.240/.339/.407), a dynamic player who started at the position as a freshman last season. It’s also a big deal to have back fifth-year senior catcher Keaton Rice (.216/.388/.353). His plus defensive skills can really help a pitching staff along, and he has some of the best plate discipline on the club. Two freshmen, second baseman Cal McGinnis and third baseman Jack Lincoln, will look to have instant impacts in the way that Chatterton and Manteufel did a season ago.

A couple of injuries have limited Bradley’s depth on the mound going into the season, as incoming freshman Noah Edders will miss the season due to Tommy John surgery and sophomore righthander Dalton Mall, who began last season as the team’s Friday starter, will miss significant time with a meniscus injury. It’s possible he may be able to return late in the season, but it’s far from a guarantee at this point. Still, the Braves have plenty to be optimistic about on the mound. Fifth-year senior righthander Matt Hamilton (5-2, 5.59) will lead the rotation after leading the team in innings last season. Fourth-year junior lefthander Grant Jausel (1-2, 2.93) who jumped into the rotation late in 2021 and led Bradley in ERA, will take over a weekend starter spot full-time. Freshman righthander Jacob Kisting impressed in the fall and has staked his claim to a spot competing for the Sunday role as preseason practice gets underway. The bullpen projects to be led by fourth-year junior Kansas State transfer righthander Josh Flack, whose fastball can reach the mid 90s, and third-year sophomore righthander Taylor Catton (4.93 ERA, 49.2 IP), a multi-inning workhorse with a true four-pitch repertoire.

7. Evansville (28-27, 11-16)

The Aces will look to make a move up the MVC standings behind a veteran lineup that returns five regulars from a season ago, led by fifth-year senior first baseman Tanner Craig (.299/.384/.547), who slugged 12 home runs in 2021 and has 30 in his career. Sophomore shortstop Simon Scherry (.288/.333/.400), fourth-year junior left fielder Danny Borgstrom (.266/.387/.487), third-year sophomore right fielder Mark Shallenberger (.258/.348/.421) and third-year sophomore second baseman Brent Widder (.246/.327/.349), as the other four returning regulars, give the lineup experienced depth. Fourth-year junior DH Eric Roberts (.270/.421/.486) showed some pop in a limited role last season and could prove to be a productive power bat if he can cut down on his strikeout rate. Third baseman Evan Berkey (.324/.427/.500) is experienced, albeit at another program in Cal State Bakersfield, as he played in 151 games over four seasons for the Roadrunners before joining the Aces last fall. This will be catcher Brendan Hord’s fourth season of college baseball, but the first in which he’s expected to be a key contributor, as he appeared in just one game in three seasons at Kentucky. He flashes good raw power at the plate, but will have to prove himself. Freshman center fielder Ty Rumsey is the one totally inexperienced player projected to crack the lineup. He looks the part of a table-setter-type player, given his speed and bat-to-ball skills.

Evansville has one of the most accomplished returning starting pitchers in the conference in fourth-year junior righthander Shane Gray (6-3, 3.38). He will give the Aces a chance to win every Friday night. For the weekend rotation to be successful beyond just Fridays, the club needs sophomore righthander Nick Smith (10.29 ERA, 7 IP) and third-year sophomore righthander Shane Harris (9.00 ERA, 14 IP) to take big steps forward. Smith is coming off of a dominant summer in the Perfect Game Collegiate Baseball League and the coaching staff thinks Harris has the stuff to eventually pitch on Fridays himself, but both are taking a big step up in their roles this season. Fifth-year senior righthander Caleb Reinhardt (2-3, 5.97) does provide some insurance for the rotation, however, given that he started 11 games last season. The bullpen could be a real strength for Evansville with the return of fifth-year senior righthander Drew Dominik (1.52 ERA, 29.2 IP) and third-year sophomore righthander Jakob Meyer (3.68 ERA, 29.1 IP).

8. Valparaiso (16-35, 9-19)

Valparaiso took the field with a painfully young team in 2021, particularly on the position player side of things, and took its lumps accordingly. But strides were made as the season went along, and the Beacons (as its athletic teams are now called) ended up making a deep run in the MVC Tournament last May as a sign of that progress. The hope now is that progress shows up in the regular season results. Not surprisingly given the youth, just about everyone is back in the lineup, led by sophomore third baseman Kaleb Hannahs (.296/.389/.387), the son of Indiana State coach Mitch Hannahs, third-year sophomore catcher Angel DiFederico (.265/.362/.327) and third-year sophomore first baseman Kyle Schmack (.264/.336/.352), the son of Valpo coach Brian Schmack. Breakout candidates to watch in the lineup include sophomore DH Brady Renfro (.231/.341/.347), who played through a torn hip labrum last season, sophomore left fielder Matt Olive (.255/.349/.418), who had just 55 at-bats in 2021 but came on strong late, and fourth-year junior right fielder Jeremy Drudge (.214/.320/.429), who is as physical and toolsy as any hitter on the roster but needs to make more contact.

When it comes to Valpo’s top arms, consistency could be called into question, but you can’t really question the stuff. Third-year sophomore righthander Trent Turzenski (2-6, 8.19) works with a sinker in the low 90s and a mid-80s slider from a 6-foot-6 frame, but he’ll have to throw more strikes to allow that stuff to really be effective. Fourth-year junior righthander Colin Fields (2-7, 6.71) has a fastball that touches 94 mph with a slider and curveball, all of which have above-average spin rates, and he worked throughout the offseason on some mechanical adjustments to allow him to throw strikes more consistently. Third-year sophomore lefthander Jake Miller (13.50 ERA, 10.2) projects to round out the rotation with a fastball that has been up as high as 94 mph and a changeup that has the makings of a quality pitch. He’ll benefit from just getting innings under his belt, as he missed his senior year of high school and his first season at Valpo while rehabbing a back injury, and he threw just 10.2 innings last season. In the closer’s role, Valpo will turn to junior college transfer righthander Bobby Nowak, whose fastball ranges from 93-95 mph with two distinct breaking balls. Assuming some or all of the aforementioned talented pitchers take steps forward, the key for the Beacons will be what depth they show behind these top arms. If quality depth emerges on the mound and an experienced lineup impacts the baseball a little more than it did last season, the improvements in win-loss record will follow close behind.

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