2021 MLB Draft Revisited: Every Team’s Class Three Years Later
Image credit: Jackson Merrill (Photo by John E. Moore III/Getty Images)
NOTE: With the 2024 MLB Draft set to begin this weekend, we’re taking a look back at some recent draft classes to reevaluate teams on their selections. See below for links to other classes from the past few years. You can see results from every draft here.
There were several teams who knocked it out of the park in 2021, and some teams that wish they could do a complete do-over. We know that it’s way too soon to put a final evaluation to the 2021 draft, but it’s not too soon to take a snapshot on how those classes are shaping up.
As with our other evaluations, we’ve tried to be equitable in distributing the draft classes from the top to the bottom of the spectrum. Most drafts reside in the middle. There are four great drafts, four above-average drafts, 13 average drafts, seven drafts with some concerns and two below-average drafts.
Check out other MLB Draft Reviews here:
Great Drafts
Cincinnati Reds
Shortstop Matt McLain (17th overall) was one of the better rookies in the National League last year, although he’s missed all of this year with a shoulder injury. Lefthander Andrew Abbott has been one of the best pitchers picked in the 2021 draft, and outfielder Blake Dunn (15th round) has made the majors already, as well. Righthander Julian Aguiar (12th round) and outfielder Jay Allen (supplemental first round) could make what’s already a great draft even better.
Cleveland Guardians
The duo of righthanders Gavin Williams (first round) and Tanner Bibee (fifth round) would make this a slam dunk draft on its own. It wouldn’t be surprising to see lefthanders Doug Nikhazy (second round) or Ryan Webb (fourth round) find ways to the big leagues, as well.
Midseason Top 30 Prospect Rankings For Every Team
Our most comprehensive Top 30 update of the season is here. Check out new additions, risers, fallers and more!
San Diego Padres
The Padres picked Jackson Merrill with the 27th pick, and now he’s making a solid Rookie of the Year case. Outfielder James Wood (second round) is playing in the Nationals outfield (Juan Soto trade) and is the No. 1 prospect in baseball. Lefthander Robert Gasser (supplemental second round) was a part of the Brewers rotation before he injured his elbow this year. Righthander River Ryan (11th round) is one of the Dodgers’ best pitching prospects. Lefthander Jackson Wolf (4th round) and righthander Alex Jacob (16th round) have reached the majors, as well. The one that got away? The Padres failed to sign 20th-rounder Chase Burns. Many of these picks are now playing elsewhere, but the Padres hit a home run with their 2021 draft.
Seattle Mariners
The pairing of righthanders Bryce Miller (fourth round) and Bryan Woo (sixth round) added to the Mariners’ reputation as a pitching factory. To get two playoff starters out of the second day of one draft is exceptional. Catcher Harry Ford (12th overall) is a Top 100 Prospect, and shortstop Edwin Arroyo (second round) was at one point, too, and was a key part of the trade to acquire Luis Castillo. Righthander Michael Morales (third round) is a name to watch.
Above-Average Drafts
Detroit Tigers
Righthander Jackson Jobe (third overall) is carrying a lot of the weight of this draft class, but he’s currently the top-ranked pitching prospect in baseball, so it’s hard to argue with this assessment. There have been a number of injuries among the pitchers, but righthanders Ty Madden (supplemental first round), Tyler Mattison (fourth round) and Dylan Smith (fourth round) have shown flashes, while lefthander Brant Hurter (seventh round) should be a useful reliever. Outfielder Justice Bigbie (19th round) is a solid day three pick.
Houston Astros
Thanks to cheating scandal penalties, the Astros didn’t pick until the third round and had only one pick in the top 100. Considering that, getting outfielder Joey Loperfido (seventh round) and righthander Spencer Arrighetti (sixth round) to be big league contributors this year is a very solid return. The Astros won’t reap the rewards from picking righthander Chayce McDermott (supplemental fourth round), but he is one of the Orioles best pitching prospects after being included in the Trey Mancini trade. Infielder Will Wagner (18th round) could be a sneaky late-round find.
Oakland A’s
The combination of third baseman Zack Gelof (second round) and righthander Mason Miller (third round) makes this an excellent draft already. If shortstop Max Muncy (first round) or outfielder Denzel Clarke (fourth round) put it all together, it could get even better. Third baseman Brett Harris (seventh round) has gotten a cup of coffee, as well.
Tampa Bay Rays
Shortstop Carson Williams (28th overall) makes this a successful draft on his own. He’s one of the best shortstop prospects in baseball, which is a find when you’re picking late in the first round. First baseman Kyle Manzardo (second round) has reached the majors with the Guardians after being traded for Aaron Civale. Second baseman Cooper Kinney (supplemental first round) has been slowed by injuries, but he can hit. Lefthander Mason Montgomery (sixth round) will likely have a big league bullpen role of some sort, and catcher Kenny Piper (18th round) is a savvy late-round pick.
Average Drafts
Arizona Diamondbacks
Shortstop Jordan Lawlar has had rotten luck when it comes to injuries, but the sixth overall pick still looks like a wise choice. Second-round shortstop Ryan Bliss has been traded, but he has made the majors. Supplemental second round pick Adrian Del Castillo is having a breakout year in Triple-A. The returns from the rest of his class have been modest so far.
Atlanta Braves
As is the Braves’ normal approach, this was a pitcher-heavy draft. Righthander Spencer Schwellenbach (second round) has slotted into the Braves rotation. Righthander A.J. Smith-Shawver (seventh round) has reached the majors as a starter, and lefthander Dylan Dodd (third round) has made brief MLB appearances, as well. The long-term success of these pitchers in the big leagues is still to be determined, but the early signs show promise. First round righthander Ryan Cusick was quickly traded to the As. Sixth-round third baseman Justyn-Henry Malloy was also traded and has reached the majors with the Tigers.
Baltimore Orioles
Outfielder Colton Cowser, the fifth pick overall, has earned a spot in the crowded Orioles outfield. If second-round second baseman/left fielder Connor Norby was playing for a less-talented team, he’d likely be in the majors, as well. The Orioles haven’t had as much success with their emphasis on college outfielders on day two, as Reed Trimble (supplemental second round), John Rhodes (third round) and Donta’ Williams (fourth round) have struggled. Eighth-round catcher Creed Willems could be a later pick that clicks.
Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox are not accustomed to picking in the top five. Nabbing shortstop Marcelo Mayer with the fourth overall pick still seems like an excellent choice three years later; he’s a Top 25 prospect who is one of the best shortstop prospects in the game. The rest of the draft class has shown more modest returns so far, with lefthander Elmer Rodriguez-Cruz (fourth round) and righthander Hunter Dobbins (eighth round) standing out.
Chicago Cubs
Lefthander Jordan Wicks (21st overall) has been a useful back-of-the-rotation starter who has reached the majors. Third baseman James Triantos is a Top 100 Prospect. The rest of the draft doesn’t have many players that have popped so far.
Chicago White Sox
Getting shortstop Colson Montgomery (22nd overall) looks like a steal three years later, even if he’s struggling at Triple-A. He’s one of the better shortstop prospects in the game and a Top 30 Prospect. Righthander Sean Burke (third round), righthander Tanner McDougal and lefthander Gil Luna (ninth round) are White Sox top 30 prospects. Montgomery’s pick almost elevates this draft on its own, but the lack of a later-round surprise keeps it at average for now.
Kansas City Royals
The Royals picked seventh overall and had four top 100 picks. Lefthander Frank Mozzicato (seventh overall) has been effective, but his loss of velocity leaves his prospect status in question. Righthander Ben Kudrna (second round), catcher Carter Jensen (third round) and lefthander Noah Cameron (seventh round) are among the Royals better prospects. There are a lot of draftees here who are likely to be big leaguers, but it’s a struggle to project many regulars.
Los Angeles Dodgers
This could easily end up as an above-average draft, but there’s a lot of to-be-determined aspects to it. Righthander Emmet Sheehan (sixth round) made the majors as a starter, but he’s recovering from Tommy John surgery. RIghthanders Nick Nastrini (fourth round) and Jordan Leasure (14th round) have made the majors for the White Sox after being traded for Lance Lynn, but neither has had any success as of yet. Lefthander Justin Wrobleski (11th round) just made the big leagues as well, and there’s still hope for lefthander Maddux Bruns (29th overall) and righthander Peter Huebeck (third round). Not bad for a team that had one top 100 pick.
Milwaukee Brewers
Outfielder Sal Frelick (15th overall) has shown his athleticism by proving he can handle infield spots, as well. Second baseman/first baseman Tyler Black (supplemental first round) has reached the majors and should hit his way to a big league role. Righthander Carlos F. Rodriguez (sixth round) has also made it to the majors as a part of the Brewers’ bullpen. Righthander Logan Henderson (fourth round) is a solid prospect, while Wes Clarke (10th round) might slug his way to a big league role of some sort.
Minnesota Twins
The Twins did well for other teams with this draft. Lefthander Cade Povich (third round) is part of the Orioles rotation, and, when he was healthy, first baseman Christian Encarnacion-Strand (fourth round) was the Reds’ first baseman. Righthander Chase Petty (26th overall) is one of the Reds’ best pitching prospects. Thankfully for the Twins, they did hold onto righthander David Festa (13th round), who is a Top 100 Prospect that just reached the majors. Shortstop Noah Miller (supplemental first round) was traded to the Dodgers, and lefthander Steve Hajjar (second round) went to the Reds. This is a hard draft to evaluate, as it looks to have multiple big leaguers, but the Twins traded many of them away for only modest returns.
New York Mets
When the Mets picked Kumar Rocker 10th overall and then didn’t sign him, it caused much gnashing of teeth in New York. The Mets actually nabbed a big league starter 132 picks later with righthander Christian Scott (fourth round). Righthander Dominic Hamel has a lower ceiling than Scott, but he could be a second big league starter out of this draft eventually. Righthander Calvin Ziegler (second round) and outfielder Rowdey Jordan (11th round) are worth keeping an eye on.
New York Yankees
Much like the Twins, this is a draft where the Yankees largely added trade chips. Shortstop Trey Sweeney (first round), second baseman Cooper Bowman (fourth round), righthander Richard Fitts (sixth round) and righthander Chandler Champlain (ninth round) have all been dealt to other teams. But the Yankees did hold onto catcher/first baseman Ben Rice (12th round), and he’s now getting a tryout as the team’s first baseman. Lefthander Brock Selvidge (third round) and righthander Will Warren (eighth round) are two of the team’s best pitching prospects.
Washington Nationals
Third baseman Brady House (11th overall) has bounced back from back problems and is a potential regular. Outfielder Jacob Young (seventh round) is serving as a backup outfielder in the majors. Outfielder Daylen Lile (second round) is a Nationals top 10 prospect and second baseman Darren Baker (10th round) could carve out a utility role.
Drafts With Some Concerns
Colorado Rockies
The Rockies picked eighth overall and had four picks in the Top 100. While they have two big leaguers so far, there’s no one to highlight as a standout. Lefthander Joe Rock (second round supplemental) was traded to the Rays for outfielder/shortstop Greg Jones, and outfielder Benny Montgomery (eighth overall) has been slow to blossom. Catcher/outfielder Hunter Goodman (fourth round) and lefthander Evan Justice (fifthround) have reached the majors, but neither has yet cleared the bar of being a solid big league contributor.
Los Angeles Angels
This is the Angels’ record-setting all-pitcher draft. The Angels had 20 picks. They took 20 pitchers, all but one of which were college pitchers. The results three years later are uninspiring. Righthander Sam Bachman (ninth overall) had made the majors, but he’s back in the minors now working as a starter, and his long-term role isn’t clear. Lefthander Ky Bush is the other prospect who’s popped, but he was traded to the White Sox in the Lucas Giolito/Reynaldo Lopez trade that the Angels would love to do over. Righthander Chase Silseth was an effective starter for the Angels last year, but he struggled in 2022 and has barely pitched this year with an elbow injury.
Philadelphia Phillies
Righthander Andrew Painter (13th overall) is one of the better pitching prospects in baseball when he’s healthy. Unfortunately, Tommy John surgery has him sidelined. He could eventually make this an above-average class by himself, but beyond him, it’s a pretty thin group. Righthander Christian McGowan (seventh round) and Griff McGarry (fifth round) are the only other players from this draft in the Phillies Top 30.
Pittsburgh Pirates
Pittsburgh had the No. 1 pick in the 2021 draft. The decided to spread their money around, picking catcher Henry Davis with the top pick and then using the bonus savings to land lefthander Anthony Solometo, outfielder Lonnie White and righthander Bubba Chandler to seven-figure deals. It’s way too early to give up on Davis, but his big league adjustment has been a rough one. He’s a .197/.292/319 hitter in 357 MLB plate appearances and has been sidelined with a concussion. Defensively, Davis has a lot of work to do to get to average at catcher, and so far he hasn’t hit enough to show he can be a productive outfielder. Chandler (fourth round) is one of the Pirates’ best pitching prospects, while Solometo and White both show promise. But when a team is picking No. 1, you’re hoping for a better result than what Pittsburgh has seen so far.
St. Louis Cardinals
If righthanders Gordon Graceffo (fifth round) or Michael McGreevy (18th overall) develop into solid big leaguers, this could move back into the average category. But a whole lot is riding on those two arms, as no one else from this draft projects to have a significant big league role.
Texas Rangers
Much like the Pirates above, it’s where the Rangers picked that makes this a concerning draft. Righthander Jack Leiter was picked second overall. He’s reached the majors, but he’s had a lot of ups and downs, including a 16.39 ERA in three MLB starts and a career 5.00 ERA in the minors. There are a number of players who have promise, like shortstop Cam Cauley (third round), outfielder Aaron Zavala (second round), lefthander Mitch Bratt (fifth round) and catcher Liam Hicks (ninth round), but no one comes close to looking like a sure-fire cornerstone.
Toronto Blue Jays
Lefthander Ricky Tiedemann could drive this draft class back to the average range eventually, but he’s struggled to stay healthy. When he is healthy, his stuff is electric, and he is a Top 100 Prospect. Once you get past Tiedemann, however, it gets pretty thin. Toronto traded lefthander Gunnar Hoglund (19th overall) to the A’s for Matt Chapman. He’s barely pitched as a pro (157 innings in four years). Righthanders Chad Dallas (fourth round), Irv Carter (fifth round) and Hayden Juenger (sixth round) project as potential bullpen arms.
Below-Average Drafts
Miami Marlins
The Marlins took shortstop Khalil Watson with the 16th overall pick and then traded him two years later for Josh Bell. Catcher Joe Mack (second round) profiles as a potential backup catcher in the big leagues. No one else from a draft that had four picks in the top 100 is a part of the Marlins current top 30.
San Francisco Giants
This draft got ugly quickly. Righthander Will Bednar (14th overall) seemed to lose a grade on pretty much every pitch when he turned pro and lefthander Matt Miluski (second round) lost five mph off his fastball soon after signing. Righthander Mason Black (third round) is on a solid trajectory, but this draft looks like it will have many more misses than hits.
