2020 MLB Season Preview Predictions 2.0

2020 Projected Standings

NL East	NL Central	NL West
1. Washington Nationals	1. St. Louis Cardinals	1. Los Angeles Dodgers
2. Atlanta Braves	2. Cincinnati Reds	2. Arizona Diamondbacks
3. New York Mets	3. Chicago Cubs	3. San Diego Padres
4. Philadelphia Phillies	4. Milwaukee Brewers	4. Colorado Rockies
5. Miami Marlins	5. Pittsburgh Pirates	5. San Francisco Giants
AL East	AL Central	AL West
1. New York Yankees	1. Minnesota Twins	1. Oakland Athletics
2. Tampa Bay Rays	2. Chicago White Sox	2. Houston Astros
3. Toronto Blue Jays	3. Cleveland Indians	3. Los Angeles Angels
4. Boston Red Sox	4. Kansas City Royals	4. Texas Rangers
5. Baltimore Orioles	5. Detroit Tigers	5. Seattle Mariners

 

AMERICAN LEAGUE EAST

1. NEW YORK YANKEES

Why They’ll Win: The Yankees took a 103-win team, added RHP Gerrit Cole and kept their immense position player and bullpen depth in place to help overcome any injury or illness. The full returns of 3B/OF Miguel Andujar and LHP Jordan Montgomery add to that impressive depth.

Why They Won’t: OF Aaron Judge, OF Giancarlo Stanton, LHP James Paxton and RHP Masahiro Tanaka are all working their way back from injuries and may not be 100% for the early part of the season. With Paxton coming off back surgery, Tanaka recovering from a concussion, RHP Luis Severino out for the year and RHP Domingo German suspended for the season, the Yankees rotation depth could get short very quickly if old injuries recur or new ones hit.

Realistic Best-Case Scenario: The Yankees overcome any and every injury setback—just as they did last year—and cruise to the AL East title as the team to beat in the American League.

2. TAMPA BAY RAYS

Why They’ll Win: The Rays are facing a schedule tied for fifth-weakest in MLB (.482 opponent winning percentage last year) and are uniquely positioned with their pitching depth to handle the roster churn that will define the 2020 season.

Why They Won’t: The Rays added a number of players to an offense that finished tied for 15th in runs scored and 14th in OPS last year (OFs Yoshi Tsutsugo, Hunter Renfroe and Manuel Margot and DH Jose Martinez), but they all have significant warts and may not represent much of an actual upgrade over departed OFs Tommy Pham and Avisail Garcia.

Realistic Best-Case Scenario: The Rays ride their pitching to their second straight playoff appearance and hang with the Yankees in the race for the AL East title.

3. TORONTO BLUE JAYS

Why They’ll Win: The Blue Jays were nearly a .500 team (27-28) to finish last season once all of their talented young position players, including 2019 rookies 1B Vladimir Guerrero Jr., SS Bo Bichette and 2B Cavan Biggio, got acclimated to the majors together. Another year of growth, plus a revamped rotation with LHP Hyun-Jin Ryu, RHP Tanner Roark and RHP Chase Anderson, should bring another step forward.

Why They Won’t: The Blue Jays have a tough slate against the main contenders in the AL and NL East, and the fact they don’t have a home stadium to play in could add to the already immense challenge of playing this season.

Realistic Best-Case Scenario: The Blue Jays embrace the underdog status of not having a home park, and their young players and veteran pitchers combine to help make them a surprise wild card contender.

4. BOSTON RED SOX

Why They’ll Win: Even after trading OF Mookie Betts, the Red Sox still have a dangerous lineup with DH J.D Martinez, SS Xander Bogaerts, 3B Rafael Devers and OF Andrew Benintendi leading the way, as well as promising second-year players 1B/2B Michael Chavis and OF Alex Verdugo.

Why They Won’t: Boston’s rotation went from bad to worse with RHP Collin McHugh opting out and LHP Eduardo Rodriguez’s status up in the air after he tested positive for COVID-19. None of the club’s projected Opening Day starters had an ERA under 5.00 last season, and only one (LHP Martin Perez) made more than 12 starts.

Realistic Best-Case Scenario: The Red Sox score enough runs to stay respectable in spite of their pitching, and with a break or two manage to stay on the fringes of wild card contention.

5. BALTIMORE ORIOLES

Why They’ll Win: Because apparently anything is possible in 2020. LHP John Means should keep the O’s competitive each time he takes the mound, and the growth of OFs Austin Hays and Anthony Santander could lead to some positive moments.

Why They Won’t: The Orioles are still firmly in the tanking portion of their rebuild process, with one of their few tentpoles (1B Trey Mancini) likely out for the season as he battles colon cancer. If any of their veterans perform well, they immediately become trade candidates.

Realistic Best-Case Scenario: The Orioles see strides from a few of their young players to build on, while the organization devotes its full effort and attention to supporting Mancini.

AMERICAN LEAGUE CENTRAL

1. MINNESOTA TWINS

Why They’ll Win: The Bomba Squad retained all of their top mashers and added 3B Josh Donaldson to the fold. Importantly, they also added RHP Kenta Maeda and LHP Rich Hill to give their rotation some much-needed length.

Why They Won’t: The Twins are playing with fire trusting RHP Homer Bailey and Hill to stay healthy at the back of their rotation, while RHP Michael Piñeda’s PED suspension won’t be over for another 36 games. RHP Randy Dobnak and LHP Devin Smeltzer pitched well in their debuts last year but have combined for 11 career starts.

Realistic Best-Case Scenario: Facing the easiest schedule in MLB (.449 opponent winning percentage last year), the Twins roll to the American League’s best record—giving them a first-round matchup against a wild card team instead of the Yankees.  

2. CHICAGO WHITE SOX

Why They’ll Win: Between SS Tim Anderson and 3B Yoan Moncada coming off breakout seasons, the continued growth of OF Eloy Jimenez, the offseason acquisitions of C Yasmani Grandal, DH Edwin Encarnacion and OF Nomar Mazara and the looming debut of OF Luis Robert, the White Sox should have one of baseball’s deepest and most dangerous offenses.

Why They Won’t: RHP Lucas Giolito has to prove he can maintain last year’s breakout, and even with the offseason acquisitions of LHPs Dallas Keuchel and Gio Gonzalez, the White Sox will need young RHPs Reynaldo Lopez and Dylan Cease to take major steps forward, especially with RHP Michael Kopech opting out.

Realistic Best-Case Scenario: Chicago’s young players take advantage of MLB’s fourth-weakest schedule (.477 opponent winning percentage last year) to get acclimated quickly, and the pitching holds up enough for the club to contend for a wild card.

3. CLEVELAND INDIANS

Why They’ll Win: Even after trading RHP Corey Kluber, the Indians have a deep, talented rotation fronted by two emerging aces in RHPs Shane Bieber and Mike Clevinger, especially with the latter having extra time to recover from his February knee surgery.  Healthy seasons from SS Francisco Lindor and 3B Jose Ramirez and full seasons from OFs Oscar Mercado and Franmil Reyes should help improve an offense that finished tied for 15th in runs scored and OPS last year.

Why They Won’t: The Indians’ bullpen performed surprisingly well last season, but the bridge from the starters to LHP Brad Hand features a lot of unproven arms outside of RHP Nick Wittgren and LHP Oliver Perez.

Realistic Best-Case Scenario: The Indians’ rotation and lineup gives their bullpen enough breathing room, and they remain in the playoff race from wire to wire.

4. KANSAS CITY ROYALS

Why They’ll Win: The Royals have a sneaky trio of dangerous hitters with 2B/OF Whit Merrifield, DH Jorge Soler and 3B Hunter Dozier and could become particularly interesting if C Salvador Perez returns healthy and SS Adalberto Mondesi and OF Franchy Cordero find some consistency at the plate.

Why They Won’t: The Royals still have too many holes in their lineup, particularly in the infield, and their promising young pitching prospects aren’t quite ready to take over for a staff that posted a 5.20 ERA last year, fourth worst in MLB.

Realistic Best-Case Scenario: Mondesi and Cordero click offensively to give the rebuilding Royals two more young players to work with going forward, while RHPs Brady Singer and Jackson Kowar show well in their debuts to enhance the Royals’ future outlook.

5. DETROIT TIGERS

Why They’ll Win: The additions of 1B C.J. Cron and 2B Jonathan Schoop bring some respectability to MLB’s lowest-scoring offense from a year ago, while the return of RHP Michael Fulmer and the looming arrivals of RHPs Casey Mize and Matt Manning could make the rotation surprisingly effective with LHP Matt Boyd and RHP Spencer Turnbull.

Why They Won’t: The Tigers still have the worst offense in the majors and are simply a team in the earliest stages of a rebuild waiting for its young players to develop. 

Realistic Best-Case Scenario: The Tigers pitch just well enough to contend for fourth place, while some of their young position players take steps forward and show they belong in the franchise’s future plans.

AMERICAN LEAGUE WEST

1. OAKLAND ATHLETICS

Why They’ll Win: RHP Frankie Montas and LHP Sean Manaea are back for a full season, giving the A’s potentially one of baseball’s best rotations to go with an offense that’s dangerous all the way through and a deep, talented bullpen.

Why They Won’t: The A’s are relying a lot on players with concerning injury histories—Manaea, C Sean Murphy, LHP A.J. Puk, LHP Jesus Luzardo—and Puk already went down with a shoulder strain while Luzardo is building up after testing positive for COVID-19.

Realistic Best-Case Scenario: Luzardo and Puk make an immediate impact once they ascend to the rotation, giving the A’s an elite pitching staff to go with an explosive offense as they cruise to the AL West title—and avoid the Wild Card Game.

2. HOUSTON ASTROS

Why They’ll Win: The defending AL champs still have one of baseball’s best offenses, and the motivation to prove their talent after the club’s sign-stealing scandal will be exceptionally high.

Why They Won’t: A new manager and the after-effects of the scandal could make for an adjustment period. More consequentially, the Astros are woefully thin in the rotation after RHP Gerrit Cole and LHP Wade Miley departed in free agency, RHP Justin Verlander had groin surgery, RHP Jose Urquidy was placed on the 10-day IL for undisclosed reasons and swingman RHP Brad Peacock went on the IL with a shoulder injury. Their bullpen isn’t in great shape either with RHP Joe Smith on the restricted list and RHPs Roberto Osuna and Austin Pruitt set to miss the start of the season.

Realistic Best-Case Scenario: The Astros bludgeon opponents with a high-scoring offense until their pitching staff stabilizes, helping them stay in the hunt for their fourth straight division title.

3. LOS ANGELES ANGELS

Why They’ll Win: RHP Shohei Ohtani, RHP Griffin Canning and LHP Andrew Heaney, all of whom have had recent elbow trouble, only have to make 10-12 starts instead of 30. The Angels also have legitimate rotation depth for the first time in years with the offseason acquisitions of RHPs Julio Teheran, Dylan Bundy and Matt Andriese and youngsters LHP Patrick Sandoval, RHP Jaime Barria and LHP Jose Suarez.

Why They Won’t: The Angels have the toughest schedule in MLB (.534 opponent winning percentage last year) and one of baseball’s oldest lineups. 1B Albert Pujols, 3B Anthony Rendon, OF Justin Upton, SS Andrelton Simmons and 2B Tommy La Stella are all 30 or older, and all but Pujols spent time on the injured list last season. 

Realistic Best-Case Scenario: Good health and an improved rotation help the Angels stay in the wild card hunt, and they make the playoffs for just the second time in OF Mike Trout’s career.

4. TEXAS RANGERS

Why They’ll Win: The additions of RHPs Corey Kluber, Kyle Gibson and Jordan Lyles give the Rangers a sneaky-good rotation, along with LHP Mike Minor and RHP Lance Lynn. Continued growth from young hitters OF Joey Gallo, 3B Isiah Kiner-Falefa and 2B/OF Nick Solak should help their offense be better than it was a year ago.

Why They Won’t: The Rangers did nothing to improve an offense that ranked in the bottom half of MLB last year despite playing in a hitter-friendly park, and may have actually made it worse by trading away OF Nomar Mazara and bringing in only 3B/1B Todd Frazier. They also did little to improve a bottom-10 bullpen.

Realistic Best-Case Scenario: The Rangers’ rotation pitches well enough to keep them on the fringes of the wild card race, even with a lackluster offense.

5. SEATTLE MARINERS

Why They’ll Win: Because anything is possible in a 60-game season, and there is enough young talent—OF Kyle Lewis, SS J.P. Crawford, 1B Evan White, C Tom Murphy, 2B Shed Long, OF Jake Fraley—that one or multiple breakouts is possible.

Why They Won’t: The Mariners are in the early stages of a rebuild and are playing the fourth-toughest schedule in MLB (.531 opponent winning percentage last year). Aside from LHP Marco Gonzalez, they are relying almost entirely on young, injury-prone or underperforming pitchers.

Realistic Best-Case Scenario: The Mariners finish in last place, but enough young players take steps forward for them to build on.

NATIONAL LEAGUE EAST

1. WASHINGTON NATIONALS

Why They’ll Win: The defending World Series champions have perhaps baseball’s top trio of starters in RHPs Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg and LHP Patrick Corbin. Even after losing key position players, they still have a dangerous, deep lineup with lots of versatile options.

Why They Won’t: The Nationals are without two franchise icons in 3B Anthony Rendon (free agency) and 1B Ryan Zimmerman (opted out), whose production and leadership are not easily replaced. Scherzer, Strasburg and Corbin all took on heavy workloads pitching deep into the postseason last year, though the shortened season may render that a non-issue.

Realistic Best-Case Scenario: The Nationals have enough offense to overcome their offseason losses and their rotation remains excellent, helping them return to the postseason.

2. ATLANTA BRAVES

Why They’ll Win: The two-time defending division champions have some of the best young position players in baseball, a deep, talented pitching staff and a front office that has shown it is willing to make aggressive moves to bolster the team.

Why They Won’t: The Braves are relying quite a bit on players who struggled to hit last year in the bottom half of their lineup, with OF Ender Inciarte, 3B/OF Austin Riley, SS Dansby Swanson and 3B Johan Camargo all coming off seasons with an OPS of .750 or below. Freeman, the heart and soul of the club, is still working his way back from COVID-19 and may need time to get to full strength.

Realistic Best-Case Scenario: The Braves ride their rotation depth and improved offensive showings from Riley and Swanson, in particular, back to the postseason for a third straight year. 

3. NEW YORK METS

Why They’ll Win: The Mets add OF Yoenis Cespedes back to a deep, powerful offense that quietly finished 11th in the majors in OPS a year ago despite playing its home games at Citi Field. RHP Dellin Betances is a major addition to a bullpen that can reasonably hope for bounce back years from RHPs Edwin Diaz and Jeurys Familia.

Why They Won’t: The Mets lost RHPs Zack Wheeler (free agency) and Noah Syndergaard (Tommy John surgery) and replaced them with RHPs Rick Porcello and Michael Wacha, who are highly accomplished but also had ERA’s over 4.75 last year. The rotation took another hit when RHP Marcus Stroman went down with a muscle tear in his left calf. First-year manager Luis Rojas is well respected, but there is always a learning curve for new managers.

Realistic Best-Case Scenario: RHP Jacob deGrom keeps the rotation stable in support of an explosive offense, and a return to form from Diaz makes the difference as the Mets reach the postseason.

4. PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES

Why They’ll Win: The Phillies bolstered both their lineup (SS Didi Gregorius) and rotation (RHP Zack Wheeler) and, most importantly, brought in a veteran manager in Joe Girardi, who should do a better job of putting their players in the best position to succeed.

Why They Won’t: The Phillies have a lot of famous names but have actually been a middle-of-the-pack offense in terms of production in recent years. The team is still relying on RHPs Vince Velasquez and Zach Eflin to stay healthy and consistent at the back of their rotation, a risky proposition.

Realistic Best-Case Scenario: Girardi gets the Phillies’ position players to play to their potential and makes smart decisions with the pitching staff to keep everyone healthy and effective, leading the Phillies to their first postseason appearance since 2011.

5. MIAMI MARLINS

Why They’ll Win: The Marlins have quietly put together a promising young pitching staff fronted by RHP Sandy Alcantara and LHP Caleb Smith, and the offseason additions of 1B Jesus Aguilar, 2B Jonathan Villar and OF Corey Dickerson should boost the NL’s lowest-scoring offense from a year ago.  

Why They Won’t: The Marlins remain in the middle of a rebuild and are facing the toughest schedule (.534 opponent winning percentage last year) of any team in the NL. As with any other rebuilding team, they are liable to trade away anyone who performs well.

Realistic Best-Case Scenario: The Marlins’ pitching holds steady and the offense improves just enough to help Miami stay respectable even in a last-place finish.

NATIONAL LEAGUE CENTRAL

1. ST. LOUIS CARDINALS

Why They’ll Win: The defending NL Central champions have MLB’s third easiest schedule (.475 opponent winning percentage last year), the type of edge that will make a big difference in a tight race in a shortened season.

Why They Won’t: The Cardinals finished 19th in runs scored last year and subtracted OFs Marcell Ozuna and Jose Martinez. Projected starting outfielders Dexter Fowler, Harrison Bader and Tyler O’Neill have struggled badly to provide consistent offensive production. 

Realistic Best-Case Scenario: An accomplished rotation and a deep well of upper-level talent helps the Cardinals deal with any shortcomings, and they take advantage of their favorable schedule to defend their division title.

2. CINCINNATI REDS

Why They’ll Win: The Reds have one of the NL’s best rotations led by RHPs Sonny Gray, Luis Castillo and Trevor Bauer at the top. The offseason acquisitions of OF Nick Castellanos, 2B Mike Moustakas and OF Shogo Akiyama should boost an offense that finished 25th in the majors in runs scored a year ago.

Why They Won’t: Even with their offseason acquisitions, the Reds’ offense still needs 1B Joey Votto to find the Fountain of Youth and OFs Jesse Winker and OF Nick Senzel to stay healthy, things that don’t have a great track record of happening.

Realistic Best-Case Scenario: The Reds’ revamped offense proves enough to support their excellent pitching staff, and they hold on in a tight race to win their first division title since 2012.

3. CHICAGO CUBS

Why They’ll Win: The Cubs still retain one of baseball’s most talented offenses, and the ability to move Kyle Schwarber to DH improves both the team’s defense and allows another dangerous hitter to get into the lineup every day.

Why They Won’t: The Cubs’ rotation isn’t getting any younger and is a bit of a wild card with RHPs Tyler Chatwood and Alec Mills on the back end until LHP Jose Quintana returns from thumb surgery. The bullpen is heavily reliant on RHPs Craig Kimbrel and Jeremy Jeffress returning to form after they posted ERAs over 5.00 a year ago.  

Realistic Best-Case Scenario: The Cubs come out re-energized under new manager David Ross, helping the talented group play to its potential and return to the top of the division.

4. MILWAUKEE BREWERS

Why They’ll Win: The Brewers lost C Yasmani Grandal and 3B Mike Moustakas, but brought in C Omar Narvaez, 1B Justin Smoak, 3B Eric Sogard, SS Luis Urias and OF Avisail Garcia to give them a balanced offense that should be an improvement over last year’s group that finished tied for 15th in the majors in runs scored.

Why They Won’t: The Brewers revamped their rotation but have already seen LHPs Brett Anderson (blisters) and Eric Lauer (coronavirus) go on the IL. They are largely relying on unproven or inconsistent starters behind RHP Brandon Woodruff, and badly need young RHPs Corbin Burnes and Freddy Peralta to reverse last year’s struggles.  

Realistic Best-Case Scenario: Burnes and Peralta break through and Anderson and Lauer get healthy, giving the Brewers the starting pitching needed to complement a solid offense and excellent bullpen as they reach the postseason for the third straight year.

5. PITTSBURGH PIRATES

Why They’ll Win: The Pirates have foundational pieces to work with in 1B Josh Bell, SS Kevin Newman, OF Bryan Reynolds and RHP Joe Musgrove. A new coaching staff should turn the page on last year’s clubhouse fights, arrests and general dysfunction.

Why They Won’t: The Pirates are a rebuilding team without two of their best players in OF Gregory Polanco (coronavirus) and RHP Jameson Taillon (Tommy John surgery). They will be relying heavily on young players such as RHP Mitch Keller and other prospects, and new manager Derek Shelton is also an unknown.

Realistic Best-Case Scenario: Reynolds, Bell, Newman and Musgrove continue to assert themselves as tentpoles the Pirates can build around and help the team stay respectable.

NATIONAL LEAGUE WEST

1. LOS ANGELES DODGERS

Why They’ll Win: The Dodgers have both the most talented position player group and deepest pitching staff of any team in the National League, and arguably all of MLB. They are built perfectly to handle the roster churn this season will bring, and on top of that are facing a schedule that’s tied for the fifth-weakest (.482 opponent winning percentage last year) in MLB.

Why They Won’t: The Dodgers need LHPs Alex Wood and Julio Urias to stay healthy after they’ve struggled to do so, especially with LHP David Price opting out of the season. If they can’t and RHPs Tony Gonsolin and Dustin May prove not quite ready to handle the demands of starting, their rotation could thin out quickly.

Realistic Best-Case Scenario: The rotation holds up and the Dodgers run roughshod through their schedule, clearing 40 wins and coasting to their eighth straight division title.

2. ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS

Why They’ll Win: The D-backs have stayed competitive into September three years in a row and added LHP Madison Bumgarner and OFs Starling Marte and Kole Calhoun during one of MLB’s most productive offseasons.

Why They Won’t: The D-backs’ depth doesn’t quite match some of the NL’s other top contenders, especially in terms of starting pitching. Steps forward from one-time top prospect RHP Jon Duplantier as well as RHPs Taylor Clarke and Taylor Widener would help greatly.

Realistic Best-Case Scenario: The D-backs ride a balanced lineup and rotation to early success and maintain it as they settle comfortably into an NL wild card spot.

3. SAN DIEGO PADRES

Why They’ll Win: The Padres addressed their years-long struggle to get on base by acquiring high-OBP OFs Tommy Pham and Trent Grisham. Full seasons from RHPs Garrett Richards and Dinelson Lamet will give them one of the NL’s most electrifying rotations to go with a deep bullpen.

Why They Won’t: Newcomers have a long history of regressing offensively as soon as they get to Petco Park. Four of the Padres’ top six starting options have Tommy John surgery on their ledgers, and their top young pitching prospects, while talented, have barely pitched above high Class A.

Realistic Best-Case Scenario: Pham, Grisham and the continued emergence of Fernando Tatis Jr. and Francisco Mejia solve the Padres’ on-base problems, and they score enough runs to support their pitching staff and snag a wild card spot.

4. COLORADO ROCKIES

Why They’ll Win: The Rockies still have most of the key players that led them to back-to-back playoff appearances in 2017-18, and a return to form from LHP Kyle Freeland and RHP Antonio Senzatela will go a long way toward reversing last year’s dropoff.

Why They Won’t: The Rockies released RHP Bryan Shaw and LHP Jake McGee, but they didn’t make any major additions to help their NL-worst bullpen from a year ago. With starters likely to be limited early, the lack of reliable arms to finish games could become glaring.

Realistic Best-Case Scenario: Freeland and Senzatela find their previous selves to complement RHPs Jon Gray and German Marquez, buoying a talented position player group and helping the Rockies contend for a wild card.

5. SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS

Why They’ll Win: The Giants have nothing to lose and a group of players motivated to prove themselves, from veterans trying to show they have something left (3B Evan Longoria, SS Brandon Crawford, 1B Brandon Belt, RHP Johnny Cueto ) to young players trying to show they belong (2B Mauricio Dubon, OF Steven Duggar).

Why They Won’t: The aforementioned players are mostly the same group that led the Giants to finish 28th in the majors in scoring a year ago, and now the team is without franchise icons C Buster Posey (opted out) and LHP Madison Bumgarner (left as a free agent) and future Hall of Fame manager Bruce Bochy. Longoria and Belt already are starting the season on the injured list.

Realistic Best-Case Scenario: New manager Gabe Kapler shows he learned from his tactical mistakes in Philadelphia and gets the most out of the Giants remaining veterans, helping the club avoid last place.