2018 Washington Nationals Top 10 Chat

Carlos Collazo: What’s up everyone! Just a few minutes until we get this started, but thanks to everyone who’s already submitted questions. We’ve got a lot of good ones so far and the Nationals system is an interesting one. This is my first time doing a handbook chapter and it’s been a blast so far.

Frank (Indianapolis IN): How many of the top ten could make BA's top 100?

Carlos Collazo: Hey Frank! Thanks for stopping by. This is a common question that we’ve gotten for all of our Top 10 lists so far, and rightfully so. The Nationals have a good system, but it’s top-heavy and with that we can safely expect to see Victory Robles and Juan Soto in the 100. After that, both Erick Fedde and Carter Kieboom have solid shots to make it in, but I wouldn’t call either of them locks. The line is probably safely drawn after that, though, as most draft guys after about 13 or so don’t get into the 100. Sorry, Mr. Romero. It’s not impossible, but I would be surprised if he got in.

Drew (Maryland): Is Daniel Johnson's prospect stilll growing? Is he a potentially legit five tool player? How do scouts view him long term is he a regular? Doesn't seem to have a weak tool.

Carlos Collazo: We’ve gotten a few questions about Daniel Johnson so I’ll try and address some of them here. Yes, Daniel Johnson’s stock is on the rise, but I wouldn’t call him a five-tool player just yet. I graded him out with 60 power, 60 speed and a 60 arm but his hit tool is below-average currently for me and his defense is just average. He’s got some rawness that needs to be ironed out, mainly with reads and routes in the outfield, but he’s got the tools to be a plus defender and he made strides with his throwing accuracy this season. As far as the hit tool is concerned, he did lower his strikeout rate this year in high A, which is the highest level he’s played at so far, but I need to see more before I put a plus grade on his bat and I haven’t heard anyone else throw plus on it either. He’s toolsy, for sure. But real 5-tool players are rare for a reason.

Dan (MD): Any chance Daniel Johnson sniffs the Top 100 this year? He probably needs to be traded to see big league time in the near future, right?

Carlos Collazo: My first answer in the chat probably clears the first part of this question up (no), but the second one brings up a great point. Washington has a very crowded outfield and with the top two prospects (Robles, Soto) in a tier above the rest, it’s hard to see some of these other talented outfielders getting regular MLB time in the near future barring injuries or trades.

J.P. (Springfield, IL): When a guy who lost nearly all season to injury ranks #2 overall, is that a testament to a weak system, the pure potential of Soto, or both?

Carlos Collazo: That’s probably a combination of both, but I’d lean heavily towards the latter argument than the former. Washington’s system isn’t weak. It is top-heavy, as we’ve talked about before, but still a solid group. Soto’s own talent is the main reason, and while a slew of injuries this season will certainly slow his development, nothing about his tools give us any reason to drop him. He’s got an excellent feel to hit and showed the ability to make adjustments within at-bats in his brief time in games this season. He’s likely a corner guy, but should also have more power than Robles, so he’s got a real chance to be an impact bat. Watch out for him in 2018 when he gets time to show how he can hit over a full season.

Brian (Waldorf, Maryland): I was a bit surprised you guys had Luis Garcia over Yasel Antuna. Garcia has more speed and defensive value, but Antuna showed a much maturer approach at the plate with .382 on-base. Why Garcia over Antuna?

Carlos Collazo: This is a great question, and one I believe Matt Eddy and myself discussed when putting the top 10 together. You could make a case for Antuna if you wanted, but there’s a real belief that he’s going to have to move off of the position as he continues to fill out physically. His offensive tools are louder than Garcia’s with more power potential, but Garcia has a better shot to stick at shortstop and is a 70-grade runner. I wouldn’t worry too much about the statistical differences between the two in fewer than 50 games in the GCL during their first year. They both have a long way to go.

Sterling (West Virginia): The Nationals have a trio of young infielders Antuna, Garcia, and Sanchez. What are the reports and thoughts on Sanchez? I know he has most realistic opportunity to stay at short.

Carlos Collazo: This is a good time to loop Sanchez in, as the trio of infielders are regularly talked about in regards to one another. He is the most natural shortstop of the group despite his errors at the position this summer, and has the potential to be a premium defender there in the future. He has a strong arm, soft hands, smooth actions and a whole lot of confidence in himself. He’s put on some weight this season, but he’s still a small guy (he’s listed at 5-11, 155) so I would be surprised if he ever hit for a lot of impact but he could be an extremely good defensive infielder.

John (NJ): Five years from now, who will be the better player: Yasel Antuna or Luis Garcia? Both seem to be carbon copies at this juncture. Thanks for the chat!

Carlos Collazo: Let’s continue with this theme because I’m having fun talking about these guys. Considering the ranking it’s probably no surprise that I’ll take Garcia. While neither of them are “safe” bets by any means, I’d say that Garcia’s floor is higher because I have more confidence in him sticking at shortstop than Antuna and I view their pure hitting ability similarly. I would add that I don’t see them as carbon copies—different profiles to me.

Bored Lawyer, Esq (My office): If Soto had continued around the level of his hit start and not been injured, would he be in top 50 discussion? Could he be an Acuna/Vlad type of high level young prospect?

Carlos Collazo: My good friend JJ Cooper would be very happy with this question. You’re on to something.

Fred (Virginia): Who do you think has a higher ceiling between Erick Fedde and Seth Romero? Is Fedde still a legit potentially mid-rotation starter?

Carlos Collazo: I’ll start with the second question first because it’s simpler: yes, Fedde still has that potential. He made really great progress with his changeup this year and at times it was a more effective pitch than his slider—which is a plus offering—although it is still a bit inconsistent. Middle to back end of the rotation is certainly possible. Fedde threw out of the bullpen some this year because of the Major League team’s needs, but they still seem him as a starter. With that said, I’d say Romero probably has a slightly higher ceiling. The life on his fastball is no joke and his slider is already a true plus pitch as well. At the same time, Romero likely has the lower floor of the two.

DR (Not a minor league stadium, alas): The Carter Kieboom/Bregman/good Brett Lawrie comps are too easy/lazy, right?

Carlos Collazo: Yeah, I’m not a huge comps guy at this point, but Kieboom is several inches taller than both of those guys and I want no part in comping a guy who hasn’t played above A ball to Bregman after what he’s done this postseason. I’ll leave that to the experienced guys. With that said, Kieboom is a special talent and has a chance to be a middle of the order hitter even if he has to move to third like Bregman did. He’ll be a fun guy to watch next season when he’s (hopefully) healthy the entire year.

Sammy (Washington DC): Which RHP with the strange last name are you higher on between Tetreault and Klobosits and why? thx

Carlos Collazo: Both are plus names without a doubt, but I’d have to go with Klobosits because it’s just more fun to say out loud and I’m more convinced I have the pronunciation down. More seriously, Klobosits is a guy to watch out for. He really impressed Nationals people with a 1.47 ERA in 30.2 innings during his pro debut and has some excellent plane out of a 6-7 frame. He’s risky for sure, but he has some exciting upside with a fastball that’s been up to 95-96 and some talk of an above-average slider as well. To top it off he has a pretty good track record of throwing strikes in college and did that during his first pro look as well. Very interesting arm.

Pip (New York): The National's system seems very top heavy, but bottom heavy as well. Seem's like their strategy the past couple years has to just been o scoop up as many college pitchers they can in the draft and as many infielders as they can internationally. Of these two groups, which pitcher and hitter do you think breaks out?

Carlos Collazo: Yep, it’s not at all hard to see what the Nationals draft strategy was in 2017: pitching, pitching, pitching, pitching… and more pitching. If you look at Washington’s first 10 rounds they took only one hitter, Cole Freeman, and while he is a solid prospect in his own right it looks like they did that in part to spend more money on arms after him. I don’t know if either of these qualify as “break out” candidates considering they’re already well known, but I’ll go with Jose Sanchez on the position player side and Brigham Hill on the pitching side. His changeup is apparently filthy.

Jonathan (Syracuse, NY): Were there any other prospects close to Antuna that just barely missed the list?

Carlos Collazo: What’s up Jonathan? Hope you’re staying warm up there. In fact, there were. I’m currently working on the 11-30 prospects and can give you a few names who are close although the final order from 11-30 isn’t yet set. Blake Perkins, Kelvin Gutierrez, Andrew Stevenson, Rafael Bautista and Pedro Severino were all close, but I felt like all were a bit below Antuna and a few of the guys ahead of him.

Matt (Va): After missing most of the 2017 season where do you think Juan Soto begins the 2018 season? Also are there any players in the Nats top 10 or top 15 that can rise the way Soto did last year?

Carlos Collazo: From a skill standpoint I think Soto is ready for Potomac and the Carolina League right from the jump, but it would make all the sense in the world to start him at Hagerstown in the South Atlantic League after playing just 23 games there this year and 32 games overall. As for your second question, Daniel Johnson is a Top 10 guy who is really exciting and could rise although he’s three years older than Soto, so it’s not quite the same thing. Top 15? I guess Blake Perkins could be that guy. He showed some in-game power from the left side this year which is encouraging and is already a very good defensive center fielder. Neither of these two have the potential that Soto does, though, just to be clear.

J.P. (Springfield, IL): Thanks for the chat. How close was Andrew Stevenson, and with a crowded outfield blocking him, is he likely to be trade bait, or a useful utility guy who can pinch run when needed?

Carlos Collazo: Hey J.P., thanks for the question! I might have touched on this in a previous comment but Stevenson is just outside the top 10. I’d be shocked if he wound up being a regular outfielder with the Nationals. He profiles as more of a fourth outfielder or pinch runner off the bench than a regular guy at this point and was pretty overmatched in 66 big league plate appearances this year. As you mentioned, he could be valuable as a pinch runner but do teams really want to use a roster spot for a guy who’s just a pinch runner? I’m not sure. Still, he can play any outfield position if you need him too although he has just a fringe-average arm at best.

Colin (Iowa): Victor Robles or Ronald Acuna?

Carlos Collazo: Robles is very good, but let’s not get crazy here. Acuna is on another level offensively, with three plus-plus tools in his power, defense and running ability. I’d take Acuna because it looks like he’s going to be more of an impact bat than Robles.

Thomas (Nationals fan, friend of Carlos): When it comes to strength of roster, I think the Nationals have arguably the best in the NL if not the league. We have aces, hitting, and this year finally got a decent closer in Doolittle. What I think the Nats really need this offseason is a guy who has that "it" factor, someone who can take a game over and get us over this hump and win a series. One could argue Bryce Harper should have been that guy but clearly him, Rendon, and Murphy need help. My question is, which one of these 10 guys has that clutch gene and gives DC the best shot of representing the National League in the World Series?

Carlos Collazo: There’s a lot to unpack here, but in general I’m of the opinion that “clutch” isn’t really a thing. At least, it’s not a repeatable skill and fluctuates pretty regularly from season to season based on what we can measure. Your best players are normally your most “clutch” players not because of some inherent ability to deal with pressure (most major leaguers are great at handling pressure; that’s how they got to the bigs) but because they are simply your best players. So, to get to the point, the answer has to be Victor Robles, right? Sure, let’s go with that.

Carlos Collazo: Actually, the most likely answer is that the Nationals really are cursed and will never win a playoff series or even make it to the World Series. Sorry everyone.

Carlos Collazo: Just kidding, but let’s take a quick break before getting to a few more questions. I should be able to go until a little after 4 ET today, so if you’ve got more questions throw them in there for me.

Alex (Bay Area): Juan Soto was off to an incredible start for an 18 year old in LoA before he broke his ankle. His hit tool seems to be in the Vlad Jr. category of advanced for his age with his power developing. Do you think Soto has a chance to be a future 70 hit / 70 power guy? Who's a good comp for him? Lefty Eloy?

Carlos Collazo: I haven’t been doing this for a long time and I feel like I’m a fairly conservative grader in general, so I would really hesitate to throw a 70 hit tool on anyone, especially someone who hasn’t yet played above A ball. That said, he did get the highest hit grade of anyone in Washington’s system—I gave both Robles and Soto future 60-grade hit tools—and we’ve heard some evaluators who say he is a future .300 hitter, which is right where a 70-grade hit tool would be.

Gabe (NYC): What can you tell us about Justin Connell?

Carlos Collazo: I can! Connell is a very athletic high school outfielder out of American Heritage HS in Plantation, Fla., which is one of the many powerhouse high schools in the state (and where both Triston Casas and Cory Acton play if you want to get excited about the 2018 MLB Draft). He can play all three outfield positions but currently profiles as a center fielder and acquitted himself well in his pro debut with a .323 average and more walks (14) than strikeouts (10).

Nate (Denver): What can you tell us about 3B Kelvin Gutierrez? He seemed to be having a nice year until he was injured, and even made the Nationals midseason top 10 list. Was he close to the top 10?

Carlos Collazo: It’s unacceptable that it’s taken me this long to get to a Kelvin Gutierrez question. There have been a few of them and he was one of the players who guys were most excited to talk to me about. He was having a nice year until an ankle injury took him out for around two months. He hit .288/.347/.414 with two homers and six triples in 58 games before hitting the DL. He’s got the strongest infield arm of the system and we’ve heard from evaluators that he might have had the best arm in the Carolina League this season. He’s a bigger guy, but has great footwork, smooth hands and a quick first step. All of that helps him play a plus defensive third base and he’s got some potential with the bat as well if he can figure out how to leverage the ball a bit more regularly.

AJ (Washington): I was surprised to see Jefry Rodriguez with the best fastball on this list. What's his long-term future?

Carlos Collazo: There were a few guys in consideration for best fastball (what’s up Seth Romero and Joan Baez) but ultimately we went with Rodriguez. He can get it up to 97 mph and with a big frame he can get some great plane on the pitch as well, although that was inconsistent this year. Washington’s player development people shortened up his arm action a bit, which helped him throw more strikes, but also limited the downhill angle of the ball. He’s got a power curveball that flashes plus as well, but remains inconsistent. He’s likely a bullpen arm but could be a very good one.

Drew W (NoVA): Jose Marmelejos has twice been the Nationals Minor League Player of the Year--what do you think of his chances to be an everyday player?

Carlos Collazo: Marmelejos is arguably the most polished hitter in the system and the guys I’ve talked to have raved about his makeup, work ethic and leadership as well. He has a professional approach at the plate, doesn’t expand the strike zone, lets his hands work naturally and uses the entire field. He’s going to either play first or a corner outfield position, but he’s a below average runner and won’t be in the field because he’s going to help you there. Hitting is his bread and butter, but without a ton of juice that’s hard to profile as an everyday player on a division one team like the Nationals. His mentality and approach at the plate could make him a very useful bench player and pinch hitter, but I’d be surprised to see him play everyday on a team of Washington’s caliber.

Carlos Collazo: It’s also worth pointing out that it’s Marmolejos* and not Marmelejos. Apologies for that.

Jeffrey (San Diego): With Seth Romero's history off the field issues, I know where they took him in the draft in comparison to his talent could potentially be a steal. But to have so many franchises say it's not worth it, leaves me to ask: Do you think Romero can put it together with the Nationals minor league and off field staff they have?

Carlos Collazo: This is the real question isn’t it? If I knew the answer, I’m sure every MLB team would as well, and then his draft status wouldn’t have been as foggy as it was. At some point, though, the talent is too impressive to pass up, and for the Nationals that was the 25th pick and $2.8 million. There are plenty of situations where players with bad makeup still do fine and progress and turn into great players—and grow up along the way. Romero is still just 21-years-old, so who am I to say that he can’t put that stuff behind him?

Carlos Collazo: All right guys, thanks going to have to do it for me today. Plenty of prospects who still need to be written up. Thanks for all of your questions and my sincerest apologies if I couldn’t get to yours! Feel free to shoot me questions on Twitter if you have more: @CarlosACollazo.