2018 Top 100 MLB Prospects Chat

J.J. Cooper: Hey everyone I’ll kick it off. Happy Top 100 day everyone!

Goose (Chicago): No Yadier Alvarez? Based on pure stuff he has to be right on the edge. Just a control issue?

J.J. Cooper: Hey everyone. Control is the big issue, as it makes his stuff play as less than one would expect based on the radar gun readings. The control problems lead to questions about whether he can he start. His stuff is really good, but throwing 100 mph by itself now doesn’t really put you in rare territory. We haven’t updated our “guys who throw 100” list for 2017 yet, but I’m pretty confident I can find you 75 guys or more who topped 100.

J.P. (Springfield, IL): Thanks for chatting, guys. Did Hunter Harvey get any votes, and was his injury history the only factor which led to his omission?

J.J. Cooper: He was in consideration. When you ask if the injury history was the only factor, it depends on how broad you want to make “injury history.” Even before he was shut down years ago, we had concerns (which we had heard from scouts) about his build and how durable he could be. He’s thrown 144 innings in five pro seasons, so that will remain a concern. The stuff is really impressive, but the combination of a) durability questions b) no time above low Class A yet and c) the fact the stuff truly came together for him again for only a short stint at the end of the 2017 season leaves him off this Top 100. If he has a healthy, impressive season in 2018 I could see him easily cracking next year’s list.

Cindy (Charlotte, NC): I was kind of surprised that Christian Pache didn't make the top 100. Did he miss the list that much? He seems like someone who could really shoot up these prospect lists in the next year.

J.J. Cooper: We are big Pache fans, but we felt it was projecting too much on the bat right now to put him in the Top 100. His defense is excellent and we’ve talked to scouts who believe he’ll have power eventually, but right now, he has none. Pache had an .062 isolated slugging percentage in 2017, which was one of the worst marks in the Sally League (and in full-season baseball). To put that in perspective, Billy Hamilton had an .080 isolated slugging percentage in his low Class A season (which admittedly was when he was two years older). Pache’s next home run will be his first pro home run. Scouts do believe there is power in there, and his glove ensures he won’t need a great bat to be a productive big leaguer, but we want to see a little more from the bat before he’s a top 100 prospect.

Greg (ATL): Can you expand on what made Austin Riley jump so high? The Double A sample size didn't seem huge, and I'm more concerned by how average he looked at High A. Are the 48 games at Double A with an inflated BABIP and a K% higher than at A+ really worthy of his big jump?

J.J. Cooper: It’s 200 plate appearances That’s not huge, but it’s also not a 10-game blip either. His higher K-rate was still 24 percent, which is impressive for a 20-year-old posting near .200 isolated slugging percentages in the Southern League. And his stats in the Florida State League are better than you might think. Cole Tucker and Cornelius Randolph were the only two hitters 20 or younger with 300+ FSL PAs to post a better wRC than Riley (credit to Fangraphs for the wRC table). Riley has legit power. He’s gotten better and better defensively. Doing what he did as a 20-year-old while playing third base is notable.

Silvy (Owego, NY): Why so low on Austin Riley? You guys dropped the ball here he’s a future stud!

J.J. Cooper: Posting these back to back to just point out that prospect rankings is a game of probabilities, not certainties, but it is certain that whatever we rank, we will get people who disagree on both sides.

Damian (Roanoke, VA): In the span of a year, Bo Bichette has gone from 93 to 44 to 8 on this list. Any chance he ends up the better player (not hitter) than Vlad Jr?

J.J. Cooper: He can play a middle infield spot and Guerrero will have to work hard to stay at third base, so it is possible. If Bichette ends up being one of the better hitters in baseball while staying up the middle, that would be a very, very valuable player.

Matt (NJ): Did Gleyber's injury play a roll in his "drop" or was it that the other guys jumped him or a combination of both?

J.J. Cooper: A minor role, but more of the guys jumped ahead of him. Acuna’s age 19 season blows away Torres’ age 19 season, his tools are equal or better and he has as much defensive value as Torres. Ohtani is a potential front-line starter. Guerrero’s age 18 season bests Torres and pretty much anyone recent’s age 18 season. Torres is a really good prospect, but this is a really, really good year for prospects at the top of the list.

Robert (DC): As worrying as it is as a Nats fan to see 8 Braves on the list already, how close were Braves level A guys like Joey Wentz and Bryce Wilson to making the top 100?

J.J. Cooper: Wilson was closer than Wentz. Pache was closer than Wilson.

Vinny (Ohio): What is the reasoning behind the much debated order of the top 3?

J.J. Cooper: I hope you’re a subscriber Vinny because we spell this out in extreme detail (2,600 words+) here for subscribers. https://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/around-office-decision-no-1-top-100-prospects/

I also wrote a column on it here for subscribers: https://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/top-100-prospects-were-betting-on-the-bat/ But for non-subscribers, at the end of the day, we’re going to bet on a bat over a pitcher at No. 1 in most situations.

Roger H. (Oklahoma City, OK): What was the reasoning for having Eloy and Vlad over Robles? It seems like in Eloy and Vlad's case their offensive power overshadows Robles' 5 tools.

J.J. Cooper: Yes. That’s a pretty fair way of putting it. All three are excellent prospects, and Robles’ defensive ability and speed give him a higher floor I would say, but Jimenez and Guerrero both are likely to have better power production with equivalent or even better hitting ability.

Damian (Roanoke, VA): Despite missing most of his first two seasons, Kyle Lewis is still hanging on with this list at 67. Obviously the fast track to the majors is a dream long faded, but can he pick up the pace again this season or is he in for a long, slow build up toward a major league call up closer to his mid-20's at this point? Bonus question: I have him as a minor league keeper in one of my leagues. We have 5 prospect slots. Any reason I shouldn't cut him this winter?

J.J. Cooper: He just has to stay healthy. He’s not had a month-long stretch of complete health since he blew out his knee in that pretty nasty collision. In his case, when you say “pick up the pace” it’s never been because he was overmatched by the competition. It has been because he’s had to work back from a very serious injury. If he can stay healthy in 2018, he can start moving more quickly, but it’s all about getting 450+ good at-bats under his belt, not getting 40 here followed by a stint on the DL, followed by some time where he can only DH followed by 50 more at-bats followed by another setback.

Lewis (America): How many of these guys could conceivably be a No. 1 overall in some years? I get the sense that anyone from 1-4 could be. Do Tatis, Robles, and Senzel have No. 1 overall tools?

J.J. Cooper: Great question. I’d prefer Eloy (No. 4) to Benintendi (No. 1) on last year’s list. Robles (No. 5) vs. Benitendi would be a great debate. So I’d say five. Torres (No. 6) or Senzel (No. 7) or even Bichette (No. 8) could have a case, but I would say any of those three being No. 1 would mean it was a weaker year for the Top 100.

Justin (Tucson, AZ): Nice to see Kiebert Ruiz getting his well earned acknowledgement. Is he Francisco Mejia 2.0?

J.J. Cooper: Personally, I think he could be better. If you wanted me to pick out someone who could fly up this list in the next year, Ruiz is a good candidate.

Jimmy (Rome): Acuna came from off this list to #1...anyone else outside of the top 100 that can make a jump like that into the top 5?

J.J. Cooper: Sorry, but that’s not true. Acuna was No. 67 on last year’s Top 100 coming off a season where he played only 40 games. We were very high on him at this time last year as well. https://www.baseballamerica.com/statistics/players/cards/9515/ronald-acuna

Tristen Lutz (Top 125?): 12 2017 draftees made the Top 100. In 40 games between both rookie levels, I compiled a .311/.398/.559 as an 18 year old! I'm already showing major in game power with 9 home runs in 161 at bats. How close was I to the top 100? Is Hunter Pence is a good comp for me?

J.J. Cooper: It’s funny how year in and year out we end up with about 12 to 14 first-year draftees making the Top 100. It’s like clockwork. Lutz wasn’t all that close to be honest. It was a great debut and if he does similar stuff in the Midwest League, I could see him making next year’s list. But the jump from being a HS player taken 34th overall to the Top 100 in your first year is a very steep one. Bo Bichette just missed last year’s Top 100 as a SS who hit .427 in his pro debut!

John,Ryu (South Korea): Given the stats, workload, and durability, how can Ian Anderson be ahead of Allard and Fried? Even Joey Wentz had a better year than Anderson.

J.J. Cooper: If you’re looking for us to line it up based solely on minor league stats, you will be disappointed. Even when you look at stats, you have to put them in context. Ian Anderson’s stuff is a tick or two better than Allard or Wentz’s. Scouts who saw Allard liked him but saw someone who nibbles, but does it really well. He’s a really good prospect, but he’s one who has a small margin of error as he doesn’t have the stuff to get a lot of swings and misses in the zone. Fried has a pretty significant history of injuries/durability questions that factors into his rankings. As far as Wentz-Anderson, Anderson has better stuff and you’d be hard-pressed to find a scout who saw both of them last year who preferred Wentz.

Greg (Kellyville, OK): How wide was the margin between Kyle Tucker and two hitters ahead of him in Tatis Jr. and Bo? I can easily see arguments for all hitters ahead of Tucker but I am having trouble with Bo. What did Bo do that put him ahead of someone with tools and a track record like Tucker?

J.J. Cooper: A number of factors. One, Bichette is a middle infielder, either a shortstop or a second baseman while Tucker is a corner outfielder. Advantage: Bichette. Two, Bichette’s track record is actually at least equal if not superior to Tucker’s at this point. Yes, he’s a year younger. But compare Bichette’s rookie ball season (.427/.451/.732) to Tucker’s (.246/.294/.353). OK, compare Tucker’s first full pro season (MWL/CAL) to Bichette’s (MWL/FSL). Even without making adjustments for the better hitting conditions of the Cal League to the FSL, Bichette hit .384/.448/.623 in the MWL and .323/.379/.463 in the FSL. Tucker hit .276/.348/.402 in the MWL and .339/.435/.631 in the CAL. Tucker does have a HiA/AA year that Bichette doesn’t have yet because he was drafted one year earlier, but comparing apples to apples, at the same points in their career (half season + 1 full pro season) Bichette has more isolated power, a higher batting average and because of the higher batting average, a higher OBP. Tucker has a slightly better K-rate and walk rate. Bichette has better normalized stats as well. You can make a case for Tucker (closer to the majors, power surge in 2017) but Bichette has a lot going for him as well.

Elliot (Louisville): Did Siri get any love? Is it more the K’s or the lack of BB’s that most concerning. Also can taylor trammell be top 10 on this list for 2019?

J.J. Cooper: Not really as far as the Top 100 for Siri. Great tools, but he was old for the league and the Reds left him in low Class A all season. He could validate his breakthrough with a big 2018 or he could find that his steps forward as a hitter in low Class A are challenged by the tougher environments of higher levels. As far as Trammell, that seems a little rich to me, but it is possible because he has a lot of athleticism, smarts and he can really hit.

Kyle Glaser: Hey everybody, I’m taking over for JJ here for a bit. Excited to get chatting with you

Pog (EU): What do you think is Luis Urias' ceiling?

Kyle Glaser: Ah, may as well start with one of my favorite prospects. Urias’ ceiling is a batting title contender while playing Gold-Glove caliber defense at second base. Power and speed won’t be his game (although it’s hard to say definitively with power anymore), but it won’t need to be. Think Placido Polanco, a perennial .300 hitter who made multiple All-Star teams, won a couple Gold Gloves, and was the No. 2 hitter on multiple World Series-level lineups. Played 15+ years, recorded 2200 hits, that’s a heck of a career

Alex (Bay Area): Was Tristen Lutz and Jeter Downs in the 101-150 conversation. Lutz was very impressive with his bat after signing and reports I've read are Downs was better than even the Reds had hoped for (different player than Trammell but the same toolsy athlete that produced out of the gate). Do you see 2 future 100 guys in both Lutz and Downs?

Kyle Glaser: Neither were really in the 101-150 conversation, but that’s not a knock on them. That just speaks to the number or similarly talented players who have longer track records and project to be every bit as good. Both are talented young players. We’ll see how they handle the rigors of full season ball this year

Alex (LaLa Land): Why was there so much separation between Jo Adell and Jahmai Jones? Adell seems to edge out Jones in terms or projection and upside but Jones got better as he moved from LoA to His. I was expecting Jones to be closer to 50 than 100. Do you think he starts at HiA with hopes of finishing at AA?

Kyle Glaser: Jahmai Jones is a darn good player with a lot going for him, but Adell is on a different level. There’s a clear tier of separation. Adell is bigger, more powerful, a better hitter and is similarly fast. Again, that’s not to knock Jones, who is an excellent prospect, just a testament to Adell and how good he can be. And Jones likely does start back at Inland Empire, yes, and he should be at Double-A before too long

Larry (Dallas, TX): Three of Calhoun's tools grade 30, 30 and 40, yet he's #36 overall? I'm having a hard time understanding that.

Kyle Glaser: The bat is the most important tool. Period. He’s a premium hitter with premium power. It’s a sliding scale. When you have a bat like his, you’re an elite prospect, more so than a guy with a 50 hit, 50 field and 60s on his arm and field

Bobby (Chicago, IL): I love your tools section of this list, but why is Dane Dunning graded only in three areas?

Kyle Glaser: Something got lost in the move over to the web. We’ve updated Dunnings (and a few other incorrect/missing spots) on the tools list. Go ahead and give it a look now

Taylor Trammell (Big Red Machine): Taylor Trammell, Jesus Sanchez, and Leody Taveras are bunched together in the middle of the top 100. If you had to project based on ceiling who has the best chance to be in the top 10 in 2019 how would you rank them? 1. Trammell, 2. Taveras, and 3. Sanchez?

Kyle Glaser: The order in which they’re ranked is the answer to your question

Tyler (Alabama): Michel Baez shot up the rankings significantly this year. What does he need to do this year to enter that top tier of pitching prospects?

Kyle Glaser: Show he can deal against older, more advanced competition. He was 21 in LoA, essentially age appropriate, but he was facing a lot of younger guys when he came up in the second half of the season and just blew them away. Going out to the Cal League (and Double-A) and doing the same will cement him in that upper tier.

Tyler (Alabama): How do you go about rankings guys like Wander Franco and other international prospects before they have stateside experience?

Kyle Glaser: A lot of it comes from our international standout Ben Badler, who has a great read on how teams across the game view these prospects in the context of everyone else who is stateside. There are very, very few guys without stateside experience who get to be in the top 100 (see 2 this year with Robert and Franco), but Ben is the best at what he does and has a great read on it all

Tyler (Dunaway): Brendan Rodgers slipped some in these rankings even though his numbers look pretty solid last year. What did you hear that led him to slide?

Kyle Glaser: It was more that some of the other players leaped over him. His struggles when he moved to Double-A and his track record of health (missed 30 games in 2016, 50-plus in 2017) opened the door from some other guys who had bigger, better years at higher levels with similar tools to jump him. That said, Rodgers is still an elite prospect who could very well move back into the Top 10 if he does what he’s capable of at Double-A

NICHOLAS (south side): with a good showing stateside, where would Luis Robert rank in the 100?

Kyle Glaser: I think everyone agrees he has Top 10 prospect potential. Just has to show he can handle the adjustment and competition in the states in full-season ball

nick (chicago): Were Dylan Cease and Blake Rutherford close to making the 100?

Kyle Glaser: Their names came up but they weren’t overly close. Rutherford needs a reset this year, Cease put up some good numbers and has a big arm but still has a ways to go in his fastball command, secondary development and finding a third pitch.

Ryan (Montreal): Senzel above Tatis Jr.? Is that more a product of being closer to the bigs?

Kyle Glaser: A little bit, but don’t downgrade Senzel’s potential. He is one of six righthanded hitting college third baseman taken in the top 10 of the draft since 2000: The others are Ryan Zimmerman, Ryan Braun, Kris Bryant, Anthony Rendon and Evan Longoria. Senzel is matching up very nicely through the first full year of his pro career with many of them. He’s got an elite pedigree and is checking off every box so far.

DR (Office): I see a fair few 80 fastballs, indicating that a large chunk of the top fastballs in base all are in the minors. Why no 80 hit or 80 power? Do you all just consider any 100mph FB 80, regardless of the relative frequency of them in the bigs now?

Kyle Glaser: There are more guys with a swing-and-miss 97 mph+ fastball in the majors than there are .330 hitters. That’s reflected in the minors and players’ potential tool grades

Dan (Chicago): How far away was a Cub prospect?

Kyle Glaser: Aramis Ademan’s name came up as an option for the back, but he was never really in the lead among the other candidates he was facing off against.

Colin (VA): Does Michel Baez have to command and pitchability to move quickly through the system or are we looking more at a 2020-21 ETA?

Kyle Glaser: Yes, he can move quickly. If he pulled a Dinelson Lamet Hi-AA-AAA rise this year and was in the majors in 2019, no one should be shocked

Ryan (Montreal): Was Jesus Luzardo close to making this list? Thanks.

Kyle Glaser: Luzardo certainly is a guy to keep an eye on as the year goes on and has every chance to rise onto the list. With a career consisting of only 43.1 innings, all at short-season, it would have been aggressive to put him on. But if he goes out to Beloit and starts performing similarly, I think a quick rise by midseason is very possible

Dan (Augusta, ME): What's going on with the Twins and Padres? The top 100 is not following their top 10's.Don't remember ever seeing that before.

Kyle Glaser: Glad you brought this up. RE: Padres, which I put together, Nos. 4-6 were pretty much interchangeable, which I talked about in their chat and in their podcast. When my colleagues got together and put all their votes in, it became clear they overwhelmingly gave Urias the edge, which I had zero problem with and I respect my colleagues opinions. So, in the context of the BA Top 100 and where all my qualified colleagues saw Urias, Quantrill and Morejon lining up, it worked because, really, the 4-6 spots on the Padres list were interchangeable. As for the Twins, a lot of the players had similar grades, and the top 10 was ordered on upside, but for the Top 100 proximity and likelihood matters significantly, so that pushed some more accomplished guys up over some of the high upside but super far away guys (i.e. Kiriloff and Graterol)

Damian (Roanoke, VA): I've seen some really high praise for Miguel Andujar lately (from outside the Yankees organization supposedly). You guys seem a bit more tempered with his tools ratings at 55, 55, 40, 50 and 60. Do you see any chance he ends up as more than a 1st division regular?

Kyle Glaser: Well, we continue to see power spike in the majors, and if that 55 power grade becomes 30-plus HRs playing with the juiced balls in the bandbox that is Yankee Stadium, which is all very plausible, then yes, he can be an All-Star. But in terms of true tools and what his production would look like in a neutral environment, most evaluators see a potential everyday third baseman rather than an All-Star. But again, if Andujar exceeds that, no one’s jaw should hit the floor

Neal (DC): Can you briefly distinguish between the various hit tool grade levels? I assume 50 is league average (~.265). What is 60 (.280?), 70 (.300?), and 80 (.320?) Do you have a webpage that breaks it all down across all the various tool categories?

Kyle Glaser: Speaking strictly mathematically, league average (50) is now actually .255. 60 would be .280, 70 would be .305 and 80 would be .330+. That’s how it’s spread out now math-wise, although different teams have different standards they use

Fred Vincy (Illinois): Sandy Alcantara at 70 says to me that you see him as a good shot to stay in the rotation. Do I read that right, and how do you see the move to Miami as affecting his development?

Kyle Glaser: Not really. A potential dominant end of game reliever is an asset every team serious about winning needs to have. I think Alcantara does end up in relief, but he excels so much there he ends up having a better ML career than many of the other guys who we could talk about as having a better chance to stick as a starter. And that – figuring out the guys who will have the best ML careers – is the entire point of prospect rankings and evaluations.

Len (GA): Is Acuna a potential .300 hitter?

Kyle Glaser: Most see more of a .275-.285 hitter, but if he has a few seasons around .300 no one should be shocked.

Mitchell (Seattle): A year ago, Kevin Maitan was probably considered a sure-fire 2018 top 100 prospect - he missed the list. Was it close? Is there any belief in him becoming what people thought he could become, or has his projection fallen that far off?

Kyle Glaser: Maitan was very close. At one point he was penciled in at either the No. 99-100 spots. What he showed in the Appy League last year was not a Top 100 prospect – tools-wise or production-wise. So you really have to have faith in his amateur report from when he was 15. At the same time, teams still see him as a talent (thus the Angels paying him $2.2 million) and there is considered to still be a potential impact bat there. He’s just going to have to come back this year in better shape and show more to reward the faith that he can get back to his amateur hype

Jim (Tampa): Interesting to see W. Adames over Rodgers. Is that because he has a better chance of sticking at SS or do you believe in Adames’ bat that much?

Kyle Glaser: Adames does have a better chance to stick at SS, but it’s more about where they are. Adames at 21 held his own at Triple-A. Rodgers at 20 struggled when he got bumped to Double-A. Both have tools, both have ceilings, take the one who’s performed better at higher/comparable levels. Still, not a lot of separation, and Rodgers could very well jump back over if he goes to Hartford and starts mashing

Ryan (Montreal): Never seen an 80 hit grade (with a 70 power!). What gives you so much confidence in Vlad’s tools to basically classify him as one of the best offensive prospects in years?

Kyle Glaser: Because the scouts and pro scouting directors and general managers across the game see him as that, and every single stat metric you can dream of backs it up. If both the numbers and the reports line up, no reason to shortchange the kid. His barrel control, bat speed, plate discipline, power potential…it’s all on a level not seen in a long time from an 18 year old

Vince (Jackson): If Luis Urias can hit 10 HR per year, is his hit tool loud enough to still make him an occasional All Star?

Kyle Glaser: His hitting ability is loud enough to make him an occasional All-Star if he hits 6 home runs a year. If a guy hits .315/.375/.415 playing excellent D at second base, he’s an all-star. (If he drops to .270 and it’s 2 home runs, then we have an issue)

Tyler (Alabama): Any chance Juan Soto makes it to the majors this year?

Kyle Glaser: He has 23 games at LoA to his name. The answer is a hard no

Gilbert (Natoma, KS): Was Anderson Espinosa in the conversation or has injury issues just booted him off and given everyone the "re-evaluate once he plays again" mentality?

Kyle Glaser: Have to re-evaluate Espinoza once he plays again. He’s missing two full seasons. We’ll see what he looks like when he gets back and go from there.

Fred (Oakland): Does Mateo have the stick to slug .450 in the majors? We know his wheels are elite but I’m curious about the power considering he took steps in AA last year.

Kyle Glaser: It might be tough for Mateo to slug .450 playing half his games in Oakland (and another 10 in Seattle, and another 10 in Anaheim), but again, power numbers are surging so much in the majors I don’t think it’s wise to give a definite no.

Josh Norris: Kyle’s off to lunch, so I’m tapping in for him. Happy Top 100 Day!

Joseph (Clinton Hills, Brooklyn): How close was the Yankees RHP Freicer Perez being on the Top 100?

Josh Norris: He wasn’t particularly close. He’s got big potential, but there’s also a long way to go.

Bort (Midland): No love for the Lizard King? Why didn't Jesus Luzardo make the list?

Josh Norris: First, I’m not sure Lizard King is a nickname I’d want. I actually had him on my personal Top 100 entering into the debates. I love the stuff, and the numbers were nasty in his limited action. As to the question, we’d love to see a bigger sample size, but I have little doubt he’ll be on this list next year.

Drew (MD): I'm really surprised to see Carter Kieboom not crack this list. How close was he?

Josh Norris: Here’s another case of a guy I had on my personal Top 100. Really small sample size, but a nearly .300/.400/.500 line as a (then) 19-year-old in low Class A is nothing to sneeze at. Was really hoping to see him in the Arizona Fall League to make up for lost time, but alas, I’ll have to wait until next year to see him with either Hagerstown or Potomac. If he can repeat his performance from 2017, there’s a good chance you’ll see him on this list next year, or at midseason.

Jeff (New Jersey): Are there any Red Sox prospects close to the top 100 after Chavis?

Josh Norris: Well, Jay Groome made it, so he’s the closest, but after that there wasn’t anybody particularly close. The system is obviously down thanks to trades and graduations, but Chavis is a nice guy to have at the top.

Brent Honeywell (Home): I'm digging the grades you gave me, but what does my makeup grade out for you?

Josh Norris: You are one of the single-most competitive people I’ve been around. You’re very good, and you know it. And you’re probably the only pitcher I can remember who got recorded a win for two teams in two leagues on the same day! (You could look it up)

Michael (Dayton): Will there be a follow up just missed article? If so can we get a preview of a few names?

Josh Norris: Yes, yes there will be. Usually we do an “Also Getting Votes” type of thing where we list everybody who ranked in our personal Top 150s. As for a couple of names, how about Twins RHP Brusdar Graterol and Yankees RHP Luis Medina? Those two have tremendous ceilings.

Jerry (Dallas): Great to see Whitley and Tucker highly ranked. What can we expect from Tucker this year?

Josh Norris: If history is our guide, and he really is what we think he is, then I’d expect a nice blend of power and hittability and speed. Maybe a speedbump here or there at the upper levels, but a solid year regardless.

Buff (CO): Why so high on Luis Urias? What 's he got besides youth and an admittedly excellent hit tool?

Josh Norris: You pretty much answered your own question there. He’s still a teenager who’s shown a beyond-his-years ability to hit. Hasn’t shown a whole lot of power so far, but a nearly .400 career on-base percentage plus a gorgeous swing and the ability to play middle infield is a great set of tools to have.

Adam (Wisconsin): Was surprised to see Fowler still ranked after a pretty serious injury. Not worried about his speed long term? Or a case where he has a track record of performing that you're confident in?

Josh Norris: I was probably the lowest on Fowler, which will take some explaining. Before the trade/injury, the reports on Fowler were stellar. Nearly universally scouts had him above Clint Frazier (ability to play center field, more consistent hitter, etc.). That said, that injury is really scary, and the fact that he’s opened up a lawsuit against the White Sox over the exposed electrical box speaks to how serious it might be for his long-term prospects. I’m rooting for him, but man that was an ugly injury.

John (New Jersey): I see Gleyber fell down a few spots. Is this mainly due to the injury, or is there something else they are seeing from the data set they had?

Josh Norris: The injury doesn’t help things, but the existence of Shohei Ohtani in the Top 5 obviously pushed him down at least one spot, and the emergences of Acuna, Vladdy and Eloy were bigger factors than anything Gleyber did or didn’t do. He’s still got star potential, but this might be a case where there’s more players with top-five level talent than there are spots in the top five.

Manny (USA): Does Blake Rutherford have a career in Baseball?

Josh Norris: Yes, he is presently employed by the Chicago White Sox. He needs to continue to add strength and the corresponding power to fit into a corner outfield spot long-term, but he definitely is a prospect. And, as I said in the White Sox chat a few weeks ago, he’ll likely get a power boost from playing in the hitter-friendly environs of Winston-Salem.

Thom (MN): Thanks for everything that goes into this! It’s why a lot of us subscribe! I’m curious as This varies significantly from your Top 10 lists. The Twins organization alone doesn’t seem to have anybody in the same spot as the top 10 vs too 100... Why is that?

Josh Norris: With the Twins, it’s a case of the margin between No. 2 and, say, No. 8, being razor thin. You could easily flop the two and it wouldn’t look out of order.

Justus (Waiting for a plane to NY): Am I really as good as everyone says? I would love to be Major ready now, but am I?

Josh Norris: You are very, very good, but you probably need some time at Triple-A before you’re ready.

James (Kentucky): How rare is Vlad Jr's. 80 hit tool? What other prospects have garnered an 80 hit tool?

Josh Norris: Without having the data at hand, I’ll go ahead and say very few. Another way of looking at it: How many 80-grade hitters are there in the major leagues? Probably less than five. That should tell you how special we think that bat could be.

ScooterD (Maryland): I don’t disagree with the ranking, but what was the reason for Whitley leap-frogging Buehler and Kopech? Understand that the latter are older, but their stats and makeup appear to leave very little room for Whitley to squeeze through. Very close, obviously - just wondering if this was gut call. Thank you!

Josh Norris: I always fall back to this fact unearthed by JJ Cooper when talking about Whitley: In the last 20 years, just five first-round pick pitchers, including Whitley, have been jumped all the way to Double-A in their first full seasons as pros: The others? Clayton Kershaw, Dylan Bundy, Zack Greinke and Chad Billingsley. Pretty rarified air.

Chris (Work): If you had to bet on one pitcher and one hitter in rookie ball right now to join this list next year, who would you choose?

Josh Norris: Luis Medina — RHP, Yankees LoLo Sanchez — OF, Pirates

DJ (Miami): So would you trade Yelich for Acuna ?

Josh Norris: This sparked quite a bit of debate on Twitter between BA staff members. I think I’m the highest on Acuna in the office, but I certainly wouldn’t hang up the phone if I were Alex Anthopoulos if the Marlins requested Acuna in trade. Yelich would be quite a catch, given his skill level and contract. I I might do it, but I might not sleep well for a while afterward.

Bill (Delaware): Does Juan Soto's injury history the only reason he ranks so low? Seems a prospect elite bat could possibly shoot up to top 20 or higher on this list in a year?

Josh Norris: I think that’s absolutely correct. He and teammate Carter Kieboom are in the same boat. Started off the year really well, but all the time missed with injuries left a really small sample for evaluators and rankers to work with. Soto could be next year’s biggest riser.

Boomer (Oklahoma City): Alec Hansen moved a lot. What is his top potential?

Josh Norris: If everything clicks mechanically, he could be a No. 2-3 starter in the major leagues.

Dominic (Chicago): How far off was Corey Ray from making this list? Clearly his 2017 numbers don't warrant a spot in the top 100, but certainly with his draft pedigree and a strong season would propel back in, correct?

Josh Norris: Corey Ray’s prospect stock took a massive hit this year. He looked lost from open to close at high Class A Carolina and would have to have a *huge* season to sniff this list next year.

Grant (NYC): I'm curious how one breakout season vaults Hays almost to the teens - unless it's due to him standing out in an almost barren system, I don't see it. Explain?

Josh Norris: One of the best overall seasons in the minors that got him to the major leagues his first full year as a pro. Not a whole lot more a guy can do, no?

Kyle Glaser: Hey all, I’m back taking the baton. Ready to go deeper and talk some more

Tommy N. (San Diego): What was the reasoning of ranking Bichette ahead of Tatis?

Kyle Glaser: I had Tatis one spot ahead of Bichette in my rankings. Others had them right next to each other as well. They were 2-3 in our Midwest League prospects rankings. Scouts see them and talk about them very similarly in terms of potential, the numbers on both are stellar. It’s really, really had to separate the two. Bichette’s slightly tick better pure hit potential gives him a smidgen advantage, which I can see, but I think honestly thinking about the two of them as tied for 8th is the most accurate way to see it

Alec (New York): Chance Adams’ numbers seem way too impressive to not be a top 50 prospect, let alone top 80. What led to his ranking with his rotation potential in 2019?

Kyle Glaser: A big part of it is Adams really is just a two-pitch guy (fastball/slider). There are some successful two-pitch guys in the majors (Bud Norris, Jordan Zimmermann), but it’s tough. Because of that, and his frame, a lot of evaluators aren’t sold on him as being more than a solid reliever or back of the rotation starter at best. All that said, hard to doubt the kid after everything he’s done. I’ll be fascinated to see how both him and Tyler Mahle both fare in the majors, as two guys putting up big numbers but when you see them definitely don’t wow you

Andrew (Massachusetts): So Jo Adell is 46, do you think he will crack the top 20 if he continues to hit into A ball and shows no problems with his arm?

Kyle Glaser: If Jo Adell continues to hit like he has in the Midwest League (and presumably after a promotion to Inland Empire, one of the most pitcher-friendly parks in the minors), he’ll be a Top 10 prospect regardless of his arm

Vinny (Ohio): How far off was Beau Burrows from making the list?

Kyle Glaser: Not far. I had Beau Burroughs in my personal Top 100. That’s a power arm that will make a difference for a big league club sometime, although I’m not sure in which role

Ian (Toronto): Hype up here on Nate Pearson is through the roof. Do you think that with a longer track record he'd already be top 50? or is it just a case of over inflating our own prospects'...er... prospects?

Kyle Glaser: Ben Badler took care of the Jays for us this year and got scintillating reports from both opposing scouts and in-house folks who aren’t known as BSers. Pearson appears to be a steal (Note: BA had him about 15 spots higher on the BA 500 then where he was drafted), and there is a very real chance to takes off next year.

Mike T (louisville,ky): When do the Rockies finally move the pieces around to call Brendan Rodgers up? If your club is gonna put this much stock into a player you move the pieces around and fit him into your lineup. If not make a trade so this kid can get on the field.

Kyle Glaser: Rodgers has played 38 games above A-ball. He won’t be ready for the majors until 2019. Which, wouldn’t you know it, is when DJ LeMahieu becomes a free agent. The Rockies don’t have to make any moves. They are in the fortunate position that the timeline of when Rodgers is ready matches up perfectly with when they’ll need him.

Lyle (Memphis, TN): Should Giants fans be disappointed that last June's #2 draft pick Jacob Gonzalez didn't make the Top 100? What does he most need to work on?

Kyle Glaser: No. As you can see from our Giants Top 10, Jacob Gonzalez would not have been one of the next 5-6 Giants off the list. He’s a HS draft second rounder yet to step out of a complex league. He has a lot of time left to keep developing, and we’ll see where things stand after he gets a crack at full-season ball

Matt (Chicago): Was Jose Adolis Garcia in the conversation for this list? I feel like the season he put up is outstanding considering it was his first year stateside and after sitting out around a year.

Kyle Glaser: Not quite Top 100, but Garcia certainly had an excellent season that has quite a few people excited. This spring training will be big for him to show what he can do against big league-level talent, which is where there’s been some concern, mostly in that there are fears his aggressiveness will be exploited against big league pitching.

JR (San Diego): How much of a gap is there between Tatis Jr. and Acuna?

Kyle Glaser: Right now? Even Padres people, in the conversations I’ve had, admit they would trade Tatis Jr. for Acuna straight up. There is a definite gap. That said, both have the ability to be franchise players, and Tatis has all the chance to be No. 1 on this list a year from now if he takes the same level of leap as he did last year, in terms of enhancing his prodigious raw tools into productive baseball skills

David (NYC): Of the guys who just missed the cut, who do you like the most?

Kyle Glaser: I think Brandon Marsh is primed to explode next year

gradus (onhava): What separates Mitchell White from Alvarez & Santana for the Dodgers?

Kyle Glaser: Mitchell White projects two plus pitches, an above-average one and solid control. Yadier Alvarez has one plus pitch, one above-average, no third pitch and poor control. The arsenals (and the success they each had at the exact same levels this year) speak for themselves. As for Santana, he’s trying to learn how to control his sinker better, and if he can get it, he may end being better than both. That’s a big if, though

Oscar the Grouch (Sesame Street): No Kevin Maitan. How the mighty have fallen. Yes he didn't have the numbers everyone projected, but it seems as though you may have given up a bit early.

Kyle Glaser: I had Maitan on my personal Top 100 and am hesitant to jump ship as well on a kid that young playing his first year thousands of miles from home. That said, the player scouts saw in the Appy League was not a Top 100-caliber player. We’ll see how he resets with the Angels this year, especially if he gets sent out to the hitter-happy Pioneer League

curdy buff (zembla): What is a good comp for Verdugo?

Kyle Glaser: Melky Cabrera or Nick Markakis

Luke (Virginia): I've heard some people question whether Chance Sisco will stick behind the plate, what's your take?

Kyle Glaser: Sisco made a lot of strides in his receiving, blocking and game-calling this year. He’s better back there than he gets credit for. However, his throwing went backwards, and if you can’t control the run game, you’re a liability back there. So…I’m going to give him the benefit of the doubt, and say he can stick, but he’s got to improve his throwing (or at least get it back to where it was)

Andy (DC): Outside of the top 10, would you agree that Juan Soto has the highest offensive ceiling in the minors? If he stays healthy and performs the way everyone expects, do you see a future grade 70/80 hit and 60/70 power? If so, wouldn't he project as a lefty handed Vlad Jr.?

Kyle Glaser: You can check our Top 100 tools grades out if you’re a subscriber here https://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/2018-top-100-prospects-tools/. Your grades are overly high on Soto

Mike (St. Louis): Did any other Cardinals players get consideration for the list?

Kyle Glaser: Harrison Bader came up. He’s tough because he’s never not been successful, but he’s so aggressive (and poor at making contact against spin, which is related) there are a lot of reservations about him being more than a second-division regular type. I’ll be very curious to see what adjustment’s he’s made this offseason when he gets into camp

Trey (Redondo Beach): How close was Yusniel Diaz to making the list?

Kyle Glaser: I pushed for Diaz. Some of my other colleagues felt differently. I feel fairly strongly he’ll have a better big league career than a lot of guys ranked ahead of him on this list, especially in the No. 81-100 group

Chris O'Day (Nooksack, WA): Kyle Lewis is down in the 60's. What is the most likely outcome you expect for him going into next year? Is he gonna raise, stay the same, fall out, or get called up to the show? Does it all depend on his knee?

Kyle Glaser: It all depends on Lewis’ knee. If he’s healthy, he has the talent to rise quite a bit. If he’s not, he may drop off entirely. Health is No. 1, especially with him

Bobob (Baltimore): Why is Eloy Jimenez ranked so much higher than Austin Hays? Hays was given the same hit tool, is faster and is a better defender. Is the difference between a 70 and 60 power grade that big of a difference?

Kyle Glaser: Yes. It’s an extra 10-12 home runs. That’s significant

Chris (Chicago): How significant is the gap between Chance Sisco and Sean Murphy?

Kyle Glaser: We’ll have position rankings out in the next few days. You can see then

Roy (Taiwan): How Tyler O'Neill come back to the list? What is biggest concern of Cards' player in the Top 100 list?

Kyle Glaser: From June 23 through the end of the year, Tyler O’Neill hit .282/.348/.639 with 25 homers and 69 RBIs in 61 games. He did that at age 22 in Triple-A, showing an improved ability to lay off sliders out front, and not embarrassing himself when forced into action in CF. He showed he could make the offensive adjustment, displayed even better athleticism than expected, and mashed at the highest level of the minors with some of the biggest power anywhere. That’ll get you on the Top 100

BK (Vancouver, BC): Is Danny Jansen just a case of "we need to see him sustain this for longer" before he's considered a prospect worthy of top 100 discussion?

Kyle Glaser: Yeah. This was a fantastic year, and I think it’s reasonable to expect him to continue to perform now that his vision is fixed. But in the context of the Top 100, another season of track record would help

Frank (Chicago): Is the 60 grade on Tatis's power the general consensus or did some have him higher? Surprised to see Acuna with a larger power grade than Tatis

Kyle Glaser: The general consensus on Tatis’ power grade was actually 55, which surprised me. We bumped him to a 60. And Acuna showed he can get to his power against better, more advanced pitching, which is part of it. If Tatis takes another strength/approach jump, he could go up another grade. I wouldn’t put it out of the question

Bill (Stockton): Did Reyes drop from #1 to #7 RHP mostly due to TJ or are those above him seen as having higher upside now anyway?

Kyle Glaser: TJ. If Alex Reyes comes back like he was before, I think he’s the top pitching prospect in baseball outside of Ohtani

Shohei (Apparently, not anywhere international): Uh Kyle... you want to try again on your count of players without stateside experience? 🙂

Kyle Glaser: Sorry. My bad.

Mike T (Hudson): Nick Gordon dropped big from 2017 to 2018, but he improved on every category except Strike Outs. Whats the reason for the drop?

Kyle Glaser: I was surprised at how lukewarm the reports on Gordon were this year. Not much faith in him sticking at SS, not enough bat for 2B maybe, limited base stealing ability despite his speed….all things that were said. We’ll see how he comes out at Triple-A this year. I think the criticism was overblown, but we’ll see

TomG (SD): I was wondering about the status of Espinoza who was once so highly ranked. Is there specific information about his injury and rehabilitation? Or is it just a standard unknown at this point?

Kyle Glaser: Espinoza was scheduled to begin a throwing program this month, with a rough target of returning to the mound in fall instructional league.

Maple (Canada): What do you think about Alford? Could he be a regular cf?

Kyle Glaser: Absolutely. A first division regular center fielder is the general projection for Alford

Casey (Morgantown): New subscriber here. I see the BA 100 list but I'm not seeing the grades on the players. How do I get those?

Kyle Glaser: Our tools grades link is here https://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/2018-top-100-prospects-tools/#vwuJVBlqRZAg0IeL.97

Kyle Glaser: I’m gonna give way to Matt Eddy here for a bit. Enjoy

Jason (Charlotte): Was a bit shocked to see Riley this high on the list ? is a .250/.300/.450 a reasonable expectation in ATL ?

Matt Eddy: Braves 3B Austin Riley has everything you could want from a first-division 3B: power, good feel to hit, some patience, a solid-average glove with a desire to improve. Plus he reached Double-A at age 20 and excelled.

Bored Lawyer, Esq. (Law Office): I get the sense that more guys than usual on this list should exhaust their prospect eligibility this year. Does it look like there will be more turnover than usual between this and the 2019 list?

Matt Eddy: I could see 8 of the top 10 prospects exhausting their prospect eligibility in 2018 — everybody but Bichette and Tatis. If that happens, then yes, the top 10 is going to look completely different.

CB (Indy): Comps are stupid, but hey they’re fun. Am I wrong to compare Luis Urias to DJ LeMahieu as a high average, good defense, but middling power and speed second baseman?

Matt Eddy: We more commonly hear names like Placido Polanco or Martin Prado.

Justin (Cincinnati, OH): With Vlad Jr getting an 80 grade hit tool, I was curious how many other 80 hit or power grades have been handed out over the years? And how many guys have topped the 80/70 hit/power combo of Vlad Jr?

Matt Eddy: This question also intrigues me, and those grades you cite for Vlad Jr. formed the backbone of my defense for him as No. 1. The most logical place to begin looking for similar grades would be Bryce Harper (60 hit, 80 power) and Mike Trout (70 hit, 65 power) in the 2012 book, but you can see we were more conservative with their grades. I spot-checked a few other high-profile prospects of the past seven years and nobody topped Vlad, who scored 150 out of a possible 160 points with his hit and power grades.

Fernando Tatis (Petco): How close are the top 10 players? Could we see my son as number 1 later this year?

Matt Eddy: It’s not outside the realm of possibility.

Danny (DRB): Can you speak to the change in offense grades for Willy Adames? He has fallen from No 7 overall in the 2017 preseason top-100 to No 13 midseason and now No 19 overall. 2017 preseason grades of Hit: 60 and Power: 55 dropped to Hit: 55 and Power: 45 for 2018.

Matt Eddy: Adames is more of an all-around contributor rather than an impact hitter. His strike-zone awareness and defensive ability will make him valuable, esp. at SS, but we haven’t received many plus grades from scouts on his hitting or power.

Darragh (Toronto): Thanks so much for the list. I was just wondering if it will be updated in future to include rankings of the usual tools.

Matt Eddy: The subscriber version of the Top 100 contains grades for all 100 prospects.

Wes (Atlanta): Great list. Big Braves fan so very happy today. What was the reason Allard dropped as far as he did?

Matt Eddy: Allard walks a fine line because his fastball grades as fringe to average. He has strong secondary stuff and at least average control. We commonly got projections of No. 4 or 5 starter.

Matt Eddy: Thanks for all the great questions. You can always reach out to the BA prospect team on Twitter with questions.

Kyle Glaser: Alright everyone I’m back to finish up this chat. Down the stretch we go

Nats OF (2019): If Bryce Harper indeed leaves town after 2018, does the Nats OF in 2019 consist of Adam Eaton, Victor Robles, and Juan Soto? They would still have Michael A. Taylor, if he hasn't been traded. The Nats OF with or without Harper still seems to be in good shape for the foreseeable future.

Kyle Glaser: Let’s be clear: You can not replace a Bryce Harper. The Nats outfield with him is better than without him, both at present and in the future. Are there talented players available to help fill some gaps if he leaves? Yes. But you should absolutely expect there to be a dropoff from Harper to whoever his replacement is. As much as Soto and Robles have promise, none of them projects even close to what Harper was.

David (KC): Is it appropriate to be freaking out as a Royals fan? I believe this is the 2nd straight season without a representative in the pre-season top 100. Anybody in their farm system close?

Kyle Glaser: Not really. The Royals recent draft history has been really bad, which has put them in a hole. Nick Pratto is their top prospect, and he wasn’t close to the 100. The Royals are in for a rough few years. That said, if I told you the Royals would make back-to-back World Series AND win one, but that tradeoff was you had to be horrible for the next decade, you’d take that trade every day. (Not saying the Royals will be terrible for a decade, mind you, just using the example). Whatever comes next, I’d argue it was worth it

gary (cincinnati): Thanks for the chat. Does Mahle project as a #3 starter, higher, or lower?

Kyle Glaser: Mahle projects as more of a potential solid No. 4, which every team serious about contending needs. Not a bad outcome in any way

Jim (Boston, MA): How close was Nick Neidert? I figured he was a lock at this point, but tough to get a gauge on how y'all view him with his being traded in between the MIA and SEA lists coming out.

Kyle Glaser: Neidert’s struggles in Double-A knocked him down a peg. The guy evaluators saw in HiA is a Top 100 prospect, they guy they saw in AA (before he took a liner off his arm) was an organizational arm. It’ll be instructive to see what he looks like out of camp this year in his new organization, and which one he more closely resembles

Dan (Memphis): Does anyone see Tyler O’neill improving his hitting enough to be all star caliber player or is he forever a power driven avg regular?

Kyle Glaser: Khris Davis has long been the optimistic comp – that’s a power driven above-average regular. We’ll see if O’Neill can get there

Colin (Iowa): Would Gohara also be considered a 2 pitch guy or do you believe in his ability to develop a changeup?

Kyle Glaser: Gohara’s changeup has come along, but it’s important to note his two pitches are both filthier than the other two-pitch guys we’ve been talking about

Dan (Washington, DC): Seems funny the Nationals don't have a pitching prospect on here. Is Seth Romero the closest?

Kyle Glaser: You can see which Nationals prospects were closest here https://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/2018-washington-nationals-top-10-prospects/

Vinny (NYC): If they both have 70 FB 60CB 60 CTL, why is Keller ahead of Beuhler despite having one less plus pitch?

Kyle Glaser: Durability. Keller has thrown 130 and 116 innings the last two years and does it with a lot less effort. Buehler was limited to 5 innings in most of his appearances and pitched 98 innings total. It’s important to remember that tools grades are instructive about what a player has to offer, but the context of their performance and some other factors are important to take into account too. Players are not ranked solely by their tools. Health, context, performance, durability all matter

Tom Gordon (Louisville): Luis Castillo or Shohei Ohtani? 5 years from now, who's the better pitcher?

Kyle Glaser: Ohtani

Bertram (Taiwan): I was surprised to see Yusniel Diaz fall off the list. His AA numbers were impressive and he was young for the level. What are the concerns with him?

Kyle Glaser: Some aren’t convinced he’ll hit enough HRs for a corner guy. I do not share those concerns

Evan (Atlanta): How does Ronald Acuna compare to other top overall prospects in previous years? Players such as Bryce Harper, Jason Heyward, Jay Bruce, etc.

Kyle Glaser: Acuna is not the caliber of Harper-Trout. He is better than, say, last year’s No. 1 overall, Andrew Benintendi, who is excellent in his own right.

Aaron (Ohio): Joey Votto is one of the best hitters in baseball, and he is on a rebuilding team. I know Votto doesn't want to be traded and he is staying a Red, but hypothetically, if the Reds were to trade him, what kind of return could they get for him/what would it cost another team? I think Votto is a fantastic player and I really like him, but I feel like they could get a huge haul which would really push the Reds rebuild forward immensely while he greatly improves another team. Would a player of Votto's caliber be worth a Vladimir Guerrero Jr./Ronald Acuna level prospect and more? How much are superstar players worth in prospects? Perhaps I am wrong though, which is why I am curious what you think. Thank you for the response!

Kyle Glaser: We’ve seen a lot recently that how much a team gets back depends a lot on how much money they are willing to eat. As talented as Votto is, and he’s a Hall of Famer still producing at an elite level, teams are going to swallow hard at the prospect of paying him $150 million over the next six years AND giving up a giant prospect haul. The more money the Reds are willing to eat, the better the caliber of prospects they will get back.

Steve (Brooklyn): Jon Duplantier literally couldn't have had a much better season last year. If he were to have his best season again this year, what does that look like? Could he be a September call up?

Kyle Glaser: If Duplantier is able to duplicate his numbers at Double-A and in Reno, he’ll be in Phoenix well before September.

Kyle Glaser: Ok everyone, that will do it for our Group Top 100 chat. Thanks for all your questions, and have a great week