2018 Tampa Bay Rays Top 10 Prospects Chat

Bill Ballew: Hi Everyone. Let’s chat about some Rays baseball and the Tampa Bay farm system. Thanks for being with us today. Let’s see your burning questions….

Mike (Miami, FL): Are you at all worried about Honeywell's makeup being a negative in the future?

Bill Ballew: It’s something that’s in the back of my mind and I’m sure it’s in the back of many people’s, including the Rays. He is one of the most confident pitchers I’ve seen and sometimes he doesn’t do a good job of challenging his emotions correctly. At the same time, the guy can pitch and he is an outstanding competitor. I hear what you’re saying, but for the most part I feel he will mature a little bit and become a terrific all-around pitcher in the big leagues.

Frank (Indianapolis IN): How many of these guys do you believe are worthy of making BA's top 100 list?

Bill Ballew: I don’t contribute to the top 10, but the first three–Honeywell, Adames and McKay–are no-brainers. Bauers and Sanchez will be in the discussion, as will Franco and Fox. Over the next two or three years, I feel there are a couple of guys who are not in the Rays’ top 10 now that will be in the top 100.

J.P. (Springfield, IL): How close to this list was Michael Mercado? Do you see him as having a top of the rotation ceiling?

Bill Ballew: Mercado was very close. Very. In fact, in the various forms of compiling the list, he was on it at times. His youth and inexperience probably kept him off in the eyes of some evaluators, plus he is extremely skinny and needs to add some strength. Give him a year or so and I see him not only cracking the Rays’ top 10 but the top 100.

Mike (Miami, FL): Has Adrian Rondon's star dimmed for you, and is he in your top 30?

Bill Ballew: Yes, it really has, not only in my eyes, but in the eyes of numerous evaluators in and out of the organization. He’s only hitting .217 in his career because he tends to get fooled while chasing breaking balls. He needs to improve his plate coverage to reduce his high strikeout rate. One of the biggest concerns is the work ethic….or lack thereof. The raw tools are there but so far the overall package has been less than impressive.

Grant (NYC): Are Chih-Wei Hu's days of starting over?

Bill Ballew: Possibly. You can never say never in baseball, but the Rays like what they have seen from him out of the bullpen and believe that is where he will help them the most going forward. Still, if a need arises in the rotation, he could be an option but as of right now he will focus on relieving.

Mike (Miami, FL): What should we make of Jose De Leon at this point? Is he in your 30?

Bill Ballew: He’s another guy kind of along the lines of Rondon. De Leon struggled with injuries throughout the 2017 campaign, including three separate stints on the disabled list. He possesses a swing-and-miss arsenal. He also overcame questions about his work ethic early in his career and must continue to employ that same approach in order to remain healthy. The Rays hope he is able to open the 2018 season in the Durham rotation.

Bill Ballew: Sorry, everyone, but the power keeps going in and out. It’s snowing like crazy here…

J.P. (Springfield, IL): What can you tell us about Ronaldo Hernandez, specifically behind the dish? Is he one to watch? Thanks, Bill.

Bill Ballew: J.P., you just touched on one of my favorite players. I had the chance to see Hernandez about a dozen times at Princeton and the dude is a stud. He not only can hit while displaying some decent patience, he moves well behind the plate, possesses at least a plus arm with incredible accuracy and is willing to do all of the dirty work. He got a little fatigued as the season went on, but I believe Hernandez has a chance to be one of the top catching prospects in baseball.

Tyson (Georgia): Are the Rays too conservative with prospects? I feel like it was set up for at least one of Honeywell, Adames, and Bauers to make their MLB debut, if not all three. I thought at least give them some coffee.

Bill Ballew: They may be. There are times when I feel they could be a little more aggressive, but in some ways it’s nice to see based on how many organizations rush their guys without giving them a solid foundation. The three you mentioned definitely could have contributed in 2017, but the organization has to be aware of their major league service and long-term effect on free agency due to the Rays’ limited financial resources.

Carlos (San Juan, PR): Which second baseman can rise faster through the minors, Brujan or B. Lowe?

Bill Ballew: Brandon Lowe is obviously closer and was an all-star in the AFL after a breakout season. Many people didn’t see that coming but Lowe proved much as he did in college that he can rake. Brujan is much rawer but probably has more upside than Lowe. So to answer your question, I’d say Lowe might get there faster at this point, but Brujan has a chance to be a very intriguing prospect.

J.P. (Springfield, IL): How many years away is Jesus Sanchez if we get more years from him like this one?

Bill Ballew: Sanchez was the Rays’ Minor League Player of the Year and really impressed everyone in the organization. He has impressive power from the left side and many of the tools that you love to see in a big league outfielder. Realistically, he’s probably two years away , even if the Rays are conservative.

Paul (San Francisco, CA): What can you tell us about rhp Tobias Myers? Thx

Bill Ballew: Myers was a solid return for Tim Beckham, even though the deal was somewhat controversial within the organization at the time. Beckham had a great start at Baltimore before cooling off and Myers showed outstanding potential in August and during instructs. His fastball sits around 94 and has an excellent curveball with great depth. The Rays have a knack for recognizing pitching and Myers fits that description.

Josh Lowe (Tampa): How far have I fallen and was I close to making it? The strides I made in the second half after a very slow start shouldn't be overlooked.

Bill Ballew: Lowe did a solid job of making the adjustment from going to the outfield from the infield. And you’re right, Lowe put together a strong second half and had a good performance during instructs. He is another guy who was in and out of the top 10 over the course of the process of putting the list together and one could argue he belongs there. The Rays realize he is young and a work in progress who is making adjustments in all phases of his game.

Ben (Los Angeles, CA): You have McKay as a pitcher on your lineup card. Is this a prediction he's not taking Bauers' job away in the coming years?

Bill Ballew: At this point the Rays are going to give him every opportunity to play first base and pitch. Should he remain on the mound, which I believe he will, he may see more activity at designated hitter than first base, which would give the team the potential of having McKay and Bauers both in the lineup. McKay was touching the mid-90s in pro ball after sitting around 90 as a junior at Louisville. He is a special athlete with great skill in both areas of the game, which the Rays recognize and will continue to allow him to display.

Mat (Halifax): Aside from those noted in top 10, which two outfield prospects should we keep an eye on most?

Bill Ballew: Obviously Josh Lowe is right there as a strong candidate to progress to the big leagues over the next few years. Joe McCarthy and Ryan Boldt are also making steady progress and should be considered potential contributors. I’ve like McCarthy since his days at Virginia and believe he has a chance to be at least a very solid fourth outfielder.

Danny (Richmond, VA): How close is Resly Linares to the Top 10? What's his ceiling and realistic outcome?

Bill Ballew: Linares was not a strong candidate for the top 10 but is solidly in the top 30. Only 20, Linares is learning how to focus on every pitch while discovering how to break down hitters. Those traits should improve as he matures mentally and physically, which makes his potential so intriguing. His pitches have excellent movement, and his changeup has plus fade. He’s definitely a pitcher to keep an eye on in the system.

Mat (Halifax): Assuming Nick Ciuffo gets picked up in Rule 5 draft, who become the top 2 catching prospects in Rays system?

Bill Ballew: I was surprised the Rays add Ciuffo to the 40-man. With Hernandez considered to be the top catching prospect in the organization, I would put a couple of catcher converts near the top of the organization depth chart. Zac Law has been to instructs four times at different positions but is playing this offseason in Australia after showing some good things Hudson Valley this summer. Brett Sullivan split time between Port Charlotte and Montgomery this year and has made some rapid strides while playing catch up behind the plate. Chris Betts and Justin O’Connor are other receivers in the organization that could fit into the picture.

Alvin (Gainesville): Can you see with development, Wander Franco being number one on this list at some point?

Bill Ballew: Well, considering he’s sixth on the list while being 16 years old, yes, I believe he has a chance to move up to the top spot on this list. He has incredible power for his age and an excellent feel for the strike zone at such a young age. The question centers on whether or not he stays at shortstop, but given the fact that so much shifting nowadays puts a little less importance on range, I think Franco will remain at short, at least for the foreseeable future.

Fran (St Pete): Does Jake Bauers ahead of Jesus Sanchez have anything to do with ceiling? I'm a little surprised by it. I thought Sanchez upside is just to great and overtakes Bauers.

Bill Ballew: That might indeed prove to be the case. Bauers is a professional hitter who should see extensive activity in the big leagues, beginning this year. Sanchez is a couple of years away but probably has a higher ceiling than Bauers. While the first three on the top 10 could have gone in any order, the same could be said about Bauers, Sanchez and Franco. That’s a good problem for an organization to have.

Jeff (Slidell): What are your thoughts on Joe McCarthy and where do you think he fits in to the Rays future plans?

Bill Ballew: McCarthy is an intelligent player with plus makeup and a tremendous eye at the plate who works the count, allowing him to get on base consistently. He has a compact swing with some solid raw power to the pull side, but his game is centered more on hitting line drives while using the entire field. He has above-average speed and plays the outfield corners well . He also has seen time at first base in each of the past two seasons, which should increase his value at the major league level. McCarthy has the offensive game to be a starting outfielder in the big leagues but will open this season at Durham.

Dan (Augusta, ME): What kind of feedback did you get on Genesis Cabrera? Is there any projection left in him? Thanks

Bill Ballew: In his four seasons with the Rays, Cabrera has made tremendous strides with his pitchability while maintaining one of the more electric arms in the organization. His fastball touched 97 mph early last year but he had no command of the pitch. The Tampa Bay pitching coaches convinced him that his heater had enough movement at a lower velocity and he proceeded to rediscover his command while sitting in the 92-93 mph range. He also added a nasty cutter in the upper 80s as well as a changeup with improving fade and depth, giving him the potential for three above-average offerings. So, yes, I believe there is some projection left in him, particularly if he continues to keep making the necessary adjustments at every level.

Danny (Richmond, VA): Do you see Justin Williams developing more power as he matures?

Bill Ballew: Yes. Williams has shown more power of late, and that is often the last tool to fully develop. Once he gets adjusted to playing the game at its highest levels, I believe he will put up some decent power numbers, including home runs.

Matt (Tampa): Thank you for chatting with us today If Jesus Sanchez hits well at HiA this year, is he seen as a guy who has the talent to potentially push for a top 10-15 ranking in all of baseball by 2019?

Bill Ballew: I think there’s a solid chance he could be a top 25 guy and possibly a 10-15 prospect. If he puts up another season this year like he did in 2017, then his chances will skyrocket. I’m excited to see what Sanchez does this year because I believe he can be special.

Bill (Tampa): Ronaldo Hernandez has gotten some hype as a possible riser. Does he have the ceiling of a starting catcher?

Bill Ballew: I mentioned Hernandez earlier and yes, he has that kind of ability. He needs to continue to work hard, improve his English skills and fine-tune some of the nuances of the position. But based on the tool set that he has, Hernandez definitely has the opportunity to be a starter in the big leagues.

Karl of Delaware (Georgetown, Delaware): Who is your nominee for surprise breakout candidate from the 2017 short season teams?

Bill Ballew: It will be interesting to see how former Old Dominion shortstop Zach Rutherford does. He hit the ball harder at Princeton than his numbers indicate and he was ODU’s number three hitter. He is also a plus defender with a strong arm. He has a lot of polish but hasn’t received perhaps as much attention as he deserves.

Bill (Tampa): Ryan Yarbrough had a strong season after coming over from the Mariners. Does he profile as a back end starter for you or does he look more like an up and down 6th starter or long reliever?

Bill Ballew: There’s no doubt Yarbrough is knocking on the door of the big leagues, where he could contribute as a number four or five starter or as a situational reliever as soon as 2018. Last season he led the International League in strikeouts and placed second in wins and third in innings pitched. Yarbrough uses his 6-foot-5 frame to his advantage by throwing on a downhill plane to generate ground balls with his sinking low 90s fastball. His above-average changeup has outstanding deception, resulting in many of his strikeouts, and he continues to improve the consistency and bite of his slider while staying low in the zone. He’s also really tough on left-handed hitters. Right now his path could go either way but he will remain a starter until the need arises in the Tampa Bay bullpen.

Dan (NJ): I feel like Kevin Padlo is one of those guys who quietly produces year after year in the middle of the defensive spectrum and while young. Do scouts see a potential regular as like an 80th percentile outcome?

Bill Ballew: Padlo had a tough 2017 season but he has the tools and overall ability to be a prospect. The Rays definitely like his ability to field and hit. You’re right in that he’s a bit underrated, which was the case as well when he was in the Colorado farm system. If he can put together a strong showing this year, chances are that attention will increase.

Jacob (Dallas, TX): Does Adames ever turn into a 20+ HR a year guy in the bigs? As someone who wants to see him in the bigs on opening day, is there any left he has to prove in AAA or could he be held down for a period of time because of service time?

Bill Ballew: Honestly, I wouldn’t be surprised if he is held down for service time, which could delay his arrival until May or June at the latest. To answer your other questions, no, he does not have much left to prove in Triple-A. As far as his power is concerned, I could see him hitting 15+ home runs annually, even if the balls do not continue to fly throughout the big leagues.

Karl of Delaware (Georgetown, Delaware): Catching being a Tampa weakness, do you think Jonas Heim might be a Ray's roster candidate due to his plus defense?

Bill Ballew: You’re right, Karl, Heim is a plus defensive catcher who has struggled with bat as a switch-hitter. He’s tall, and his long limbs create some holes in his swing. He had to spend this past season in Bowling Green due to a catching logjam in the system and probably should have been in Port Charlotte. He has some development that needs to be done, but his defense could definitely make him a big league backup candidate at some point. Sullivan at this point would probably be a closer option than Heim if Ciuffo is taken in the Rule 5 draft.

Bill Ballew: Thanks for all of the questions today and for participating in the chat. It’s only about 10 weeks until pitchers and catchers start reporting to spring training, regardless of what’s happening outside right now. Enjoy the winter meetings!