2018 Phillies Top 10 Prospects Chat

Ben Badler: Hi everyone. The Phillies had a fun system to write up again this year. A lot of prospect depth with a lot of players outside their top 10 who would be top 10 guys in other organizations, so plenty of players to talk about today. Let’s get started.

Kyle (Dallas, TX): What kept Seranthony Dominguez off your list? Projection?

Ben Badler: On pure stuff, if you saw him at his best—and I talked with scouts who did—he’s right up there behind Sixto Sanchez. But he’s also a 22-year-old who has never thrown more than 80 innings in a season, some of which has been due to arm problems, so whether he has the durability to hold up as a starter long-term is a significant question. I would keep developing him as a starter, but I think there’s a high probability he ends up in the bullpen, with the high-level stuff to be a top-flight reliever.

Oscar the Grouch (Sesame Street): If you had to construct this list after Crawford's lousy first half, would he still have ranked #1 in this system?

Ben Badler: At the time, I thought Crawford and Hoskins were the best prospects in the system. But I also understand why people were concerned about Crawford—it’s not like his struggles were a small sample size—and I shared some of those concerns as well. I think what he showed in the second half is more indicative of his true talent level and what to expect going forward.

Danny (Richmond, VA): What's the future for Ranger Suarez, in your opinion? Was he close to the Top 10?

Ben Badler: He was close. And a big part of that was that his stuff improved this year. Early in his career, he was a pitchability lefty with great control and savvy, which works well against lower level hitters but gives you a pretty slim margin for error once you move up the ladder. But this year he started getting his lower half into his delivery more and his velocity spiked to sit in the low-90s and touch 95. And obviously the control is still there. He went from a fringy, longshot type to a legit prospect this year.

Matt (Ca): What’s Sixto Sanchez’s ceiling as a pitcher?

Ben Badler: Frontline starter. It’s a very small group of pitching prospects in the game better than him.

Patrick (Scranton): Just an opinion but I sincerely think ppl are bailing on Moniak way too soon. He was extremely young, body is nowhere near close to filling out, 1st year of extended playing time. Call me naïve?

Ben Badler: I’m probably somewhere in the middle. I liked the Moniak pick at the time, but yikes—what a disappointing year. I don’t think anyone’s writing him off completely, but his stock definitely tumbled. The optimistic view is that his first couple months were more in line with Moniak’s true talent level before fatigue set in, and the sweet swing is still there, but the overall body of work for a player who was supposed to be an advanced hitter for his age was rough.

Roger H. (Natoma, KS): It seems that the Phillies system has a lot of pitchers in their lower levels that have solid potential. Which do you think has the best chance of making a splash into the org top 10?

Ben Badler: For upside, Francisco Morales. He just turned 18 last week but he checks off a lot of boxes you want to see in a future mid-rotation or better starter.

Hinkie (South Jersey): JoJo Romero's ETA to MLB is ____ .

Ben Badler: Probably finishes 2018 in Triple-A, then gets to Philadelphia some time in 2019.

Rich (NJ): Jose Pujols had a disastrous season at Clearwater; clearly he needs to get his K rate under control; have you or others seen any potential for that to occur so that he can progress in his development and get to his raw power?

Ben Badler: It’s a long shot. The pitch recognition and swing are pretty far away from where they need to be, especially at that position.

Ben Badler: I haven’t heard any discussion of it at all, but Pujols’ arm is also good enough where I’d be intrigued by what he’d look like on the mound.

Ben (Philly): Thanks for chatting. How many of these guys could make your top 100 list?

Ben Badler: I think you could see anywhere from 4-7 players on that list, with three in the top 50. Toward the back end, our internal individual Top 100-150 lists will probably be different depending on preference for guys in the 5-10 range, or possibly even a guy like Seranthony Dominguez if you’re more optimistic about his future durability as a starter than I am.

Gerry (Philly): On a recent podcast in Philly, farm director Joe Jordan said Jhailyn Ortiz has the highest offensive ceiling in the whole organization. Said Ortiz has exceeded expectations already. I know clubs inflate their prospects a bit, but is this an industry observation on Ortiz?

Ben Badler: Of anyone in their system, Ortiz is the guy where if everything clicks, he’s a middle of the order masher. I do want to see him do it against full-season pitching, but he’s already shown great progress as a hitter, and what he did this year as an 18-year-old in a league of mostly college arms is impressive.

Neil (Philly): Ben - I'm glad you have the Phillies job because I'm curious about the 4 Million Dollar Man, Ortiz. When he signed, he seemed destined to at best be a power hitting 1B. Now I hear he can run and play a corner OF position. What do you see as a realistic projection for him? Thanks!

Ben Badler: A lot of Ortiz questions in here today—rightfully so. When he signed, he was a 16-year-old who weighed about 260 pounds. Typically, as you get older, you don’t get smaller. Think about how big Miguel Cabrera is now, then go back and look at pictures of him when he was just coming up with the Marlins. So when you’re projecting a 16-year-old kid and where he’s going to play in the future, body type plays a significant role. Ortiz is always going to just be a big human being, but to his credit, he’s maintained his body well enough to this point where he can play the outfield and surprise people with his mobility, and his arm is a real weapon out there. I do think there’s still significant risk that he goes to first base at some point, but there’s no reason at this point to move him off the outfield just yet.

Jack (Philly): Who is the next Latin American pitcher(After Morales) to keep an eye on for next season?

Ben Badler: I’m very intrigued by Victor Vargas, one of their July 2 signings this year. A guy who’s a little further ahead on the ladder than Morales is Mauricio Llovera, who’s probably a bullpen arm but has been up to 99 mph.

James (Colorado): Kyle Young had a great year in Williamsport. Is he someone worth watching? A 6'-10" lefty who only walked 5.7% of batters he faced as a 19 year old seems like a solid foundation to build upon.

Ben Badler: Definitely. It’s rare to see guys that young who are 6-6 with the body coordination to consistently repeat their mechanics and throw strikes, and Young is doing it at close to 7 feet tall. He pitches right around 89-91 and tops out at 93, so it’s not overpowering stuff right now, but I think there’s more velocity in the tank once he fills out, and with his extension out front, his 92 jumps on hitters like it’s 94-95. There’s definitely breakout potential in there.

Allen (TN): Was Cozens #11?

Ben Badler: No. He’s much lower. Huge power, but there are just so many holes in that swing that Triple-A pitchers didn’t have much trouble exploiting. I think he could crush over in Japan like Carlos Peguero or Wladimir Balentien, but I’m not optimistic about him making the adjustments to be an everyday guy in MLB.

Oscar the Grouch (Sesame Street): Will Roman Quinn ever stay healthy enough to become a regular OF? Is he going to be in your prospect handbook?

Ben Badler: He’s in the Prospect Handbook, but he is frustrating. I think the talent is in there for him to be an everyday center fielder—maybe not an above-average player, but one who can give you value with his speed, defense and some sneaky power that will probably show up even more once he starts hitting the magic MLB baseballs. But I also think durability is an ability. With position players, you can say an injury or there isn’t necessarily a long-term concern, but Quinn has a long track record now of not being able to stay on the field. To some extent, I kind of throw my hands up in the air because the injuries make him more of a challenge to project, and while I’m a believer in his talent when he’s on the field, his history of spending so much time off of it due to injuries has to factor into his projection.

Jeff (Tampa): Where do you see Jose Taveras in the top 30, and where do you see him finishing 2018? The kid started in Clearwater and had a great campaign in Clwt, Reading, AND Lehigh Valley. He's got to be a mid-season call up to fill in for a starter, right?

Ben Badler: He’ll be in the middle to back end. Pure velocity is below average for a RH starter, but he just has success at every level. The deception and extension make the fastball play better than the gun readings would suggest, the changeup is a weapon to disrupt hitters’ timing, and he throws a lot of strikes. There’s enough there to work as a back-end starter, and yes, he should be up at some point in 2018 if he’s pitching well in Triple-A.

Joseph (Philadelphia): Last year Kingery made a big leap forward. The year before it was Hoskins. Which player in the Phillies system is most likely to make a big leap forward in 2018? Thanks

Ben Badler: I like this question because the Phillies have several guys who could fit this one. I’ll lean toward the younger, non-Top 10 guys and go with Simon Muzziotti. Still waiting on strength to come with him, but good athlete, premium position and a lot of barrels with his hand-eye coordination.

Greg (Kellyville, OK): What's the story with Daniel Brito? I had hopes this year that his bat would come alive but it seemed that he struggled in the SAL. Is he more of a defensive prospect with avg hit tools in the long run?

Ben Badler: After that first month, I thought he was on the verge of a breakout too. Then he just collapsed. He does defend his position well at second base, but I still see a lot of things to like with his bat with the way he uses his hands and controls the barrel. The problem this year I think was more about approach. He’s starting to get stronger, which is giving him a little more power than he ever had before, and it seemed like he got more into yank and pull mode this year, trying to do too much to show that power, which isn’t uncommon. If he can develop a more balanced offensive approach, there’s breakout potential in there.

Greg (Cincy): Should phillies have drafted Nick Senzel first overall? He'd look mighty good atop this list.

Ben Badler: At the time they made the pick, I thought Moniak or Senzel would have been good picks at 1-1. With another year-plus of information, obviously Senzel has soared past him.

Tracy Oliva (Hershey, PA): If the A’s 1B Matt Olson can turn things around, after a 2nd year in Triple A, couldn’t Dylan Cozens do the same thing next year? They are the same age. Same power profile. Olson probably has a better Hit Tool but their careers’ seem parallel.

Ben Badler: Olson had more plate patience than Cozens and his contact rate wasn’t in the same risk bucket. Olson was a 24 percent K-rate guy in Double-A and Triple-A at age 21-23, while Cozens had a 32-percent K-rate in Double-A and 36 percent in Triple-A this year at age 23, with swing length and path that leads to those empty swings. Cozens has further to go to make the necessary adjustments.

Walter (Sulphur Springs, TX): How good can Jonathan Guzman be? He is young and has a long way to go but could he be the next JP Crawford in the system?

Ben Badler: He’s very good. Don’t see much similarity to Crawford, but he’s definitely going to stick at shortstop, he fields the position well, and even though the overall line at the end of his season wasn’t good, I think his swing, hand-eye coordination and overall high baseball IQ are all positive indicators for his offensive potential. He played pretty much the whole year at 17, so he’s essentially the same age as a current high school senior. Put him in the draft next year, especially with the lack of shortstops there, and he could go in the first round. It’s going to take some patience with him because of the age and lack of strength, but he should be jumping into their top 10 list at some point.

Bill (NJ): Can you give us a scouting report on Arquimedes Gamboa?

Ben Badler: Good athlete, plus run, plus arm and sharp splits, both in 1st/2nd half numbers and L/R splits (way better from the left side). I had strong reports on him when he signed a few years ago out of Venezuela, then the last couple of years, the reports I got from scouts were not encouraging. With the way he finished this year, I think he MIGHT be starting to turn those tools into skills. 2018 will be an important year for him.

Dan (Trenton): If Scott Kingery reaches his ceiling, is he Utley lite?

Ben Badler: Chase Utley belongs in the Hall of Fame. So Hall of Famer lite is a tough one, but I am a big believer in Scott Kingery. He’s a very well-rounded player. He’s going to hit toward the top of the lineup, he’s going to give you good power for a second baseman, play above-average defense and use his speed well on the basepaths. The sum of all those contributions is a very valuable all-around player.

James (Colorado): Ben Pelletier hit for average in the GCL, but there wasn't much power or speed there when just scouting the stat line. What tools does he have to go along with the hit tool?

Ben Badler: The bat is the main tool with Pelletier. Straight corner OF profile. He was repeating the GCL, but he was still 18 years old, coming from Canada and getting to play a lot more than ever before, and it showed in his development this year. There’s a lot of pressure on his bat given his overall profile, but he’s a better prospect than he was at this time last year and could be a nice value for the Phillies given where they drafted him.

AJ (Orange County): Cornelius Randolph - should we still expect him to be an impact player at the majors level?

Ben Badler: That would surprise me. I think it’s a solid but not great bat/power profile, which is tough for a below-average defensive corner OF. He made an adjustment this year to get more lift in his swing, and he’s still learning how to pull the ball with authority to show that power in games.

Frankie (Chicago, IL): Can Eshelman succeed in the bigs as a #5 with his current arsenal?

Ben Badler: Yeah, I think his fastball command and ability to change speeds and read hitters’ swings are polished enough for him to get to that role and carve out a Kevin Slowey type of career.

Jeff (Boston, MA): Do you think Jhailyn Ortiz hit tool is proficient enough to eventually tap into his power against lefties and righties? Can he be a complete hitter? Do you think he is athletic enough to play right or left in the majors if Hoskins sticks at 1st?

Ben Badler: His power is always going to come with strikeouts, and he’s never going to be a pure hitter, but the progress he’s made the last 2-3 years gives me a lot of optimism. When I saw him as an amateur (and talked to a lot of scouts who saw him more than I did), the concern, even more than his build, was his game hitting ability. He had some really ugly swings on pitches in and out of the strike zone and struggled to recognize offspeed stuff. This year, he generally was able to lay off those breaking balls off the plate, work himself into hitters’ counts, and then he showed he could hammer a fastball out to any part of the park. Those are all good signs when you have a player with 70 raw power who could be a 30+ HR threat.

Ben Badler: As for where he fits with Hoskins, Ortiz is still 18. He might be another 4+ years away from being MLB ready. There’s a long time before they have anything to sort out there.

Buff (Colorado): Not a lot of love for Adam Haseley, apparently. What are the chances he breaks out next when he starts fresh?

Ben Badler: The reports we got from pro scouts who saw him didn’t match the amateur reports. I do think a lot of that may have been fatigue—the bat speed and overall quickness seemed down from earlier in the year—which isn’t uncommon for first-year draft picks. Then throw on top of it that Haseley is a two-way guy, and I think you have to account for that. It isn’t the most exciting profile for a top 10 overall pick, so if he looks like the Adam Haseley scouts saw after the draft, I’ll be very concerned, but for now I’m leaning more on his pre-draft reports than what he showed after signing.

Joseph (Philadelphia): Before Mark Appel got hurt, I understood he was plagued with inconsistency. Is there any hope he can help the Phillies in the bullpen? or has he reached the end of the line? Thanks

Ben Badler: I think he has to go to the bullpen this point, with the hope that something clicks for him there, whether it’s just being able to air it out in short stints or being more comfortable with that workload/work pattern. I don’t think it’s totally over for Appel, but I wouldn’t recommend buying the Prospect Handbook this year if you’re looking for a Mark Appel scouting report.

Mitchell Baker (Indiana University): Is Kilome a future #3 starter? Thought he might be a tad higher on the list. Is control what concerns you guys the most?

Ben Badler: There’s upside in there for him to become that, but it’s a combination of fastball command, a reliable third pitch and then being able to miss more bats, which he did in 2016 but not as much in 2017. Some of those things are related—you have to throw strike one and strike two to be able to get to strike three—but the fastball and breaking ball are quality pitches if he can improve his body control to sync up his mechanics and bring up that changeup.

Paul (Philadelphia): Thoughts on Kapler to be announced as their new manager? (Good timing with this chat, btw.)

Ben Badler: I think he’s a smart guy. He has minor league managerial experience, which I like, and experience being in charge of the Dodgers’ minor league player development, which is another plus. If I’m hiring a manager, I want someone who can be a good in-game tactician and someone who is great at helping players get better. I never really liked how teams use the title “director of player development” to refer to their farm director. Player development is something that doesn’t end in the minor leagues. Players have to continue to develop in the major leagues, both young players breaking in to the league and the older guys who have to make adjustments as their physical skills erode. Having a manager who excels as the person in charge of MLB player development is more important to me than running a clubhouse or other off-field stuff that generally gets more media attention.

Shane (Scranton area): How about Medina? Some Philly pundits think he is better than Sixto right now. Is that a fair statement?

Ben Badler: I would disagree. I’m not sure there’s anyone at BA who would have Medina over Sixto.

Joseph (Philadelphia): Ben - Jonathan Guzman and Spencer Howard were in BA league top 20s for the Phillies. How close were they to the Phillies top 10? Thanks

Ben Badler: Touched on Guzman in an earlier answer, but Howard showed a lot of good things in his debut. He got a lot of swing-and-miss on his fastball this year, which is a combination of the velocity and life on that pitch. When he pitches up in the zone with the fastball, hitters have a hard time squaring him up.

Kyle (Seattle, WA): Was Nick Fanti given any consideration? Is he one of those pitchers whose numbers are much better than his ceiling?

Ben Badler: The performance stands out more than the stuff. The pitches across the board are below-average to fringy, but he hides the ball well in his delivery, he has a lot of deception and is very polished for the level with his ability to spot his fastball to all quadrants of the strike zone. That skill set gives Low-A hitters fits, but he’s not going to have much margin for error when he gets to the upper levels unless the stuff jumps.

John (NJ): What is a realistic ceiling for Francisco Morales, given that his change up, command and overall control is still a work in progress? Thanks!

Ben Badler: I talked to some scouts who see a potential frontline starter. I would bet the under just based on all the risk factors, but there’s a lot to like with Francisco Morales.

Ben Badler: Thanks for all the questions. We’ve got Nationals prospect rankings and reports up next on Wednesday with Carlos Collazo. I’ll be back to another week of seeing international prospects for the 2018 and ’19 classes. You can follow along my IG story at ben.badler and for BA subscribers we’re going to have several reports and videos up in the near future. Enjoy the rest of the day!