2018 Milwaukee Brewers Top 10 Prospects Chat

J.P. (Springfield, IL): Thanks for chatting, Tom. How far off this list was Tristen Lutz, and which outfield position is he best suited for? Also, is he ready for Low-A ball?

Tom Haudricourt: Hello, everyone. Thanks for participating in today’s Baseball America chat on the Brewers’ prospects. My friends at BA have final editorial control and I’m not exactly sure of each ranking outside of the Top 10 yet but I believe Lutz just missed at No. 11. There was much consideration for him to be in the Top 10. That’s how highly he is considered. He is a great athlete with budding power and a good arm, so RF is my guess where he eventually ends up.

Paul (Denver): I assume Hader didn't qualify due to service time, as he has less than 50 IP. Where would you have ranked him, had he been eligible? Has he been written off in terms of being a fulltime SP?

Tom Haudricourt: Hader didn’t qualify because he exceeded 30 appearances, which is also a baseline at BA for pitchers. He was at 35, so that excluded him. He was No. 2 last year and I certainly wouldn’t have dropped him after his showing in 2017. He has not been written off as a future SP, according to the Brewers. It depends on what pitching help they acquire this winter and where Hader helps the team most. Will be an interesting and important decision.

Ryan (Milwaukee, WI): Thanks for chatting. Where is Mauricio Dubon's home on the diamond likely to be in the next year?

Tom Haudricourt: Well, Orlando Arcia isn’t going anywhere, so Dubon’s future with the Brewers would be at 2B. And he might get his chance sooner than some think because that position is unsettled right now at the top level.

Frank (Indianapolis, IN): How many of these prospects would you predict will make BA's top 100 list? (I know you don't get to vote, just curious.)

Tom Haudricourt: I would think the top five or six have a good chance. That’s without knowing what all of the other organizations have to offer, of course.

J.P. (Springfield, IL): After the year he had, did Jake Gatewood's stock rise at all for you? Is 1B likely to be his defensive home in the foreseeable future?

Tom Haudricourt: Gatewood moved up five or six positions, I believe, after his best season as a pro. And 1B would be the best bet because it is a position of great need in the organization.

Mike (Miami): Which RHP are you higher on in terms of ceiling between M. Diplan and F. Peralta?

Tom Haudricourt: That’s a tough one because they are similar in some ways. If Peralta continues trending as he did in 2017, he would be my choice. Diplan went a bit in the other direction.

J.P. (Springfield, IL): At this point, is Gilbert Lara still a prospect, or more of a suspect?

Tom Haudricourt: I will give this simple answer: He no longer ranks in the BA Top 30 in the organization.

Chet (Chicago, IL): What do you make of Trent Clark and the year he had? Are you reasonably confident he can rebound?

Tom Haudricourt: A somewhat puzzling season. Having said that, he did not miss the Top 10 by much. One thing in his favor is he still shows great plate discipline, leading the organization with 98 walks. Perhaps he was a bit too passive at times. He is still young and has nice tools, so there’s no reason to think he won’t move forward.

Dan (MD): Carolina was stacked with (admittedly underachieving) prospect talent in 2017. Does Harrison spend most of the season there in 2018? Any repeaters or new faces to keep an eye on in high A?

Tom Haudricourt: The way Harrison performed this year, wouldn’t surprise me at all if he gets bumped to AA Biloxi next year. He continues to produce in the Arizona Fall League. Let’s see where the Brewers place first-rounder Keston Hiura in the spring. He is an advanced hitter, so high A isn’t above his skill level at his point. Keep an eye out for pitchers Carlos Herrera and Josh Pennington as well.

Mitchell Baker (Indiana University): Jake Gatewood’s numbers improved this year. Any chance he can be a middle of the order hitter in the MLB without having an Adam Dunn batting average?

Tom Haudricourt: We will get that answer in the next year or two. He made some big strides in 2017, so at least he is trending in the right direction. And it is my understanding he has really taken to 1B. A good athlete.

William (Pensacola, FL): Brett Phillips: Everyday Joe, bench player, or frequent flyer candidate for the Brewers in 2018 ?

Tom Haudricourt: That’s hard to answer at this point. If you assume LF Ryan Braun and RF Domingo Santana play regularly, that leaves CF to figure out. And you have three players in the picture right now: Keon Broxton, Lewis Brinson and Phillips. A nice problem to have, the Brewers will tell you.

Seth Ferguson (Evansville, IN): I think it was last winter that I saw Marcos Diplan in the top 20 list of his league, but his numbers really backed up this season. If he fixes his control can he be a MLB #3? Or is he more suited to the ‘pen where his stuff would play up?

Tom Haudricourt: Scouts will tell you that undersized righties have a strike against them in becoming a SP in the majors. The Brewers will continue to use Diplan as a SP but he did take as step back in 2017, and as you noted, command was an issue. If he turns out to be a reliever in the big leagues, you at least have that. He certainly has the arm.

Oscar the Grouch (Sesame Street): Your faith in Luis Ortiz seems a bit baffling at this point. His numbers didn't say "wow" this year, and his body is not conducive to a mid (or even back of) rotation starter. Please explain.

Tom Haudricourt: Ortiz pitched the entire 2017 season at age 21. That’s pretty dang young to be in AA ball. He has all kinds of ability. Opponents batted a mere .227 against him. He is a big-body pitcher, so conditioning is important for his future progress. But he’s doing quite well at his age.

Dan (Baltimore, MD): Is Medeiros's projection a future SP or RP at this point? Will he be in the 11-20 range?

Tom Haudricourt: Medeiros is right around No. 20, maybe one click back. Opinion is divided as to his future role in the majors. The Brewers think he can be a starter but he is so funky that LH hitters hate facing him, so that could be his future. And there’s nothing wrong with that. Look how Josh Hader succeeded in the majors this year.

Eric (Tallahassee, FL): If Hiura's elbow is considered healthy by April, do the Brewers let him play at 2B fulltime, or do they continue to play him cautiously? Is the keystone his natural position, or is a shift to the OF a possibility?

Tom Haudricourt: The Brewers would want Hiura to see as much action in the field because there is no DH in the NL and they need to get him accustomed to playing defense. I’ve heard talk about the OF from some but if he can even be an average defender at 2B, look at the offensive potential he would bring to that position.

William (Pensacola, FL): For the past two years, Luis Ortiz’s innings were limited to get his stamina up. Is 2018 the year ?

Tom Haudricourt: As I just mentioned, he pitched all of 2017 at age 21, so of course you are careful with a young arm. But, as he gets more innings under his belt and assuming he stays healthy, you start letting him do more. I would think 2018 will tell us a lot about his role and ETA in majors.

Nate (Denver): Trent Clark has had his struggles, to be kind. Does he still flash the tools? What range does he rank for you, and what's the view on him going forward?

Tom Haudricourt: As mentioned earlier, he does still flash tools. And let’s not forget that he didn’t turn 21 until Nov. 1. This is a young player. He only had 428 at-bats as a pro entering last year, and more than doubled it with 457 more. He just needs to play. There is a lot of ability there. He had a .360 OBP with 37 steals, so there is lots to work with.

Not Jaypers (Wisconsin): Tom, when the Brewers make the playoffs next, who is the guy to take the rubber in game 1 vs Kershaw? I see pitching prospects but no #1, that are hard to find.

Tom Haudricourt: Might be somebody that isn’t a Brewer right now. But if Jimmy Nelson recovers from his shoulder injury, he was trending in that direction. And let’s see if Hader moves back to starting. Corbin Burnes excited folks last year, so let’s not count him out. And I really like the way Brandon Woodruff gets after it. There is only one Kershaw, so you’re not going to match that arm. Heck, relievers pitch more than starters in the postseason now, so it might be more important to build a deep bullpen.

Matt (Corpus Christi): What's Brett Phillips ceiling? 4th OF or can he produce enough to be a starting OF?

Tom Haudricourt: I don’t put anything past Phillips because the needle is in the red on his desire meter. He needs to make more contact but he made good progress last season and didn’t shy away from the pressure when playing in September. We’ll know more when we see how the overall OF picture shakes out for the Brewers. They have a ton of OF talent.

Allan (Wi): Tom, just your best guess, does Hader stay in the bullpen in 2018?

Tom Haudricourt: It’s hard to guess until we see what SP moves the Brewers make. This is the way I see it: If they acquire enough SP help, he stays in the bullpen. If not, he’ll move back to starting. It’s all about need.

Jonathan (Syracuse, NY): Would I be right in assuming that Freddy Peralta was a close miss? More generally, were there any prospects that gave Corey Ray a run for his money at #10 on the list?

Tom Haudricourt: Peralta was a close miss, as were Tristen Lutz and Mauricio Dubon. So, yes, there were prospects who challenged Ray, especially after his puzzling 2017 showing. With the Brewers’ deep system, there are plenty of players worth Top 10 consideration.

Al (Hartland): Freddy Peralta has to be number #11 right?

Tom Haudricourt: I believe Tristen Lutz will be No. 11 (the final 20 were still a bit in flux last time I checked). Lutz, Clark, Dubon and Peralta were the group right outside of the Top 10.

MrBaseball (Albuquerque): Has the Demi Orimoloye train jumped the tracks? With so much outfield talent above him and now Lutz coming on, is there a place for Demi with the Brewers? Or is it still too early to write him off?

Tom Haudricourt: Definitely too early to write him off. He is still just 20 and had tremendous tools. But, as you noted, with so much OF talent in the system, it would behoove him to do something in 2018. Dropped him out of the Top 30 for now.

Bill (Colorado): Gilbert Lara had so much hype early in his career, but has been so phenomenally bad. Between his poor performance and devastating injury to end his season has he completely fallen off the prospect map?

Tom Haudricourt: Yes. Let’s see if he can find a GPS and get back on it.

Bill (Colorado): Troy Stokes Jr. had a great season between A+ and AA. Does he have the makings of a starter or does he look more like a 4th OF? Would you expect to see him in the Top 30 or is his star not that bright? In either case I would suspect any MLB future for him is outside Milwaukee with the OF depth in the organization.

Tom Haudricourt: Stokes did not make our Top 30 this time around but was under high consideration. He took a big step in 2017. He has some impressive tools. Again, with all of the OF talent in the organization, you have to keep pushing.

Ryan (Milwaukee): Hey Tom, Should we read anything into Jimmy Nelson (and Chase Anderson for that matter) being left off of the projected 2021 squad? Contract status and potential free agency are still non-factors, right?

Tom Haudricourt: Projecting four years into the future is so difficult. It was just guessing that they might have moved on by then, and also considering age and cost control. Small-market teams such as the Brewers must continue to funnel prospects to the big leagues. It certainly wouldn’t be shocking if Nelson and Anderson were still members of the rotation. Projecting that far out in baseball makes me nervous but my good friends at BA twisted my arm (just a little).

Eric Rodriguez (Puerto Rico): What's the ceiling of Mario Feliciano y Gabriel Garcia?

Tom Haudricourt: They are both still so young, it’s difficult to say. But catchers and first basemen are needed in the organization, so the paths are there. Feliciano was impressive for a young catcher at Class A Wisconsin this year. And Garcia certainly swung the bat well at rookie Helena. They’re just getting started so anything is possible.

Jordan Mendelblatt (Glendale, WI): Reports were that Gilbert Lara was "totally overmatched" against full-season pitching before his broken leg. Was this just an overpayment by a Brewers team looking to expand in the L.A. free-agent market or still too soon to pass judgement because of his age?

Tom Haudricourt: There are inherent dangers in signing 16-year-old players and giving them a lot of money. I know that’s how the international market works but it’s all based on projection down the road. Generally in life, betting on how teenagers will respond to anything is dicey.

Alex (MA): With the emergence of Shaw, is there a future for Erceg in Mil?

Tom Haudricourt: Well, if you looked at the projected 2021 lineup we just talked about, it had Shaw at 1B and Erceg at 3B. I don’t think that’s out of the question.

John (NJ): Why did Freddy Peralta miss the cut? Granted he walked a bunch, but his batting average against, K/9, BABIP, LOB% and FIP only got better with Biloxi. Other than the walks, why the lack of recognition? Thanks for the chat!

Tom Haudricourt: Again, Freddy Peralta was strongly considered for the Top 10. He moved up nine or 10 spots from last year, which I think is a pretty good jump. If he pitches like this again in 2018, safe to say he’s a lock for the Top 10.

Monte Harrison (Brew Crew): Do you see me making a push for become a top 100 prospect this midseason if I continue to progress with my hitting? Is my FV hit tool the only one in question? Who do I remind people of, a young Mike Cameron?

Tom Haudricourt: Hey, Monte, you jumped like crazy in our Brewers ranking. Keep up the good work. All you needed to do was stay on the field. Good health can never be discounted.

Shane (Denver): Really enjoyed the write-ups, Tom. Just on Burnes, I was a bit surprised by the 3-4 ceiling as a starter. Seems like he displayed the control and command of a number of his pitches that has much more upside. Any comp that you received for him or liken him to?

Tom Haudricourt: I don’t really get into that comp stuff because it’s mostly guesswork or personal opinion. As for his ceiling, it’s probably a tick better than No. 3 if he keeps improving, but nothing wrong with being in a big-league rotation, no matter the slot. Don’t forget, this is a 2016 draft pick. What a long way he has come already.

Jose (Louisville): Corey Ray's season was beyond disappointing. I've seen a lot of reports about his frustration getting to him. Can be turn around his prospect status by working on the mental game and improving his approach, or are there now questions about the underlying tools and swing?

Tom Haudricourt: You can understand why he would have been frustrated at times in 2017. He was the No. 5 pick in the draft in 2016 and was considered a very advanced college hitter. Then, for whatever reasons, he got out of his game last season and was a mess at the plate at times. The Brewers sent him to the Arizona Fall League in hopes of getting things going with more coaching. He needs to show he can make adjustments, which is the key for any player, highly ranked or not.

Ernie (Chicago): Was Dubon close to making the list and is his future limited to a utility role ?

Tom Haudricourt: Dubon would be a good utility player because he can play both SS and 2B, and really gets after it on the field. As mentioned earlier, Orlando Arcia is the Brewers’ SS for now and awhile, so it would be 2B or bust as far as playing regularly for the Brewers. I know folks like the way he competes, so I wouldn’t put any limitations on him at present.

Mitch (Milwaukee): Hey Tom, do you think Stearns & Co., look to acquire another high-end catching prospect? Or, do you think they still believe Nottingham is the "catcher of the future"?

Tom Haudricourt: Nottingham has not made the strides hoped for to this point, so it wouldn’t surprise me if the Brewers look for another top catching prospect. There is still time for Nottingham but he needs to get going, both at the plate and behind it.

Paul (Madison): Carlos Herrera seemed like a present surprise as a teenage RHP who more than held his own in full-season ball. However, scouting reports on Herrera are hard to find. What are scouts and coaches saying about him?

Tom Haudricourt: I heard some good things about Herrera this season. That’s why you will find him in the BA Top 30 when the Prospect Handbook comes out. His frame is starting to fill out and he took a nice step forward in 2017. He is someone to watch next season.

Smedley (Green Bay): Monte Harrison, and, to a lesser extent, Jake Gatewood took steps up this year. HArrison seems more like trade bait from an outside perceptive. Do you think GAtewood stick at First, or does the lure of a shortstop/middle infielder with Power end up having him moved back to one of those positions?

Tom Haudricourt: Gatewood is staying at 1B, in my opinion. It is a real position of need in the organization. He has physically outgrown being a SS.

James (formerly Rome, now Delafield): Tom-Is there any hope Phil Bickford can turn things around or is he a lost cause? He's had plenty of off and on field...issues/setbacks

Tom Haudricourt: Well, he needs to get on the field for us to find out, right? Between the marijuana suspension and the broken hand, he barely pitched in 2017. That makes next year a big year for him. He needs to stay on the right track and stay healthy. There is talent there, for sure.

Ryan (WI): Thanks for chatting, Tom. What SS from the low minors should Brewer fans get excited about? (Pinero, Carmona, Coca, Thomas?)

Tom Haudricourt: I heard so many good things about Pinero, you will find him in the Brewers Top 30 when the Handbook comes out. And I was advised that Carmona should be considered as well, so let’s keep an eye on him. Sounds like both have potential. I understand Pinero is very advanced in the field for his age.

Grant (NYC): With such an abundance of outfielders right now, why are the Brewers so reluctant to part with Brinson?

Tom Haudricourt: Because he’s their No. 1 prospect. You should always be reluctant to part with your No. 1 prospect. After all, you only have one of them.

Ed (Evanston, IL): Isn't 6th a bit high for Luis Ortiz given his injury history and mediocre performance during his second season in AA?

Tom Haudricourt: As I mentioned, he pitched a full year in AA at age 21. That’s what you call pushing a player. You don’t do that unless expectations are high.

Mitch (Milwaukee, WI): Another prospect that seems to play better than what scouts say of him, Nate Orf. If 2nd base is another weak spot in 2019 for the Brewers, do you see Orf getting a chance?

Tom Haudricourt: I recently tweeted that Orf is the most underrated player in the Brewers system. And then I go and prove it by not putting him in the Top 30. But I’ve been told he is a winning, versatile player who is going to play in the big leagues at some point. You have to look past the physical tools sometimes and just recognize that a guy is a good baseball player.

Smedley (Green Bay): Just off of your own estimation, which pitcher in the system (outside of Hader) has the most potential to be as close to a lights-out starting pitcher as this system can produce? Ortiz seems liek the likely answer based off of projections, but is someone flying under the radar?

Tom Haudricourt: I really like Woodruff and Burnes. That’s why they are ranked right up there with Ortiz. I expect them all to be in the Brewers’ rotation at some point.

Jose (Louisville): Based solely on pure upside, how do you rank the Brewers OF: Brinson, Ray, Phillips, Lutz?

Tom Haudricourt: Well, Brinson is the organization’s No. 1 prospect, so his upside has to be huge, right? Lutz is a newly minted pro and anything can happen but everyone likes his tool set. Let’s see how he develops.

Ryan (WI): After seeing Burnes and Harrison breakout this year, what pitcher and position player is poised to step up in 2018?

Tom Haudricourt: Well, as we have discussed, Freddy Peralta is knocking on the Top 10. But let’s keep an eye on Trey Supak and Josh Pennington. They have very good arms and big upside. As far as the position player goes, keep an eye on 2017 draft pick K.J. Harrison. I’m not sure if he can stay a catcher, but he sure can swing it.

rick (Calif.): Where did Cody Ponce land in the "others" category?

Tom Haudricourt: Ponce was in the second 10. He had a solid if not sensational season at Class A Carolina as he focused more on pitching and not so much on lighting up radar guns. He might morph into a reliever at some point but there is a lot of ability there, so he remains someone to watch.

Brewher (home): Is Brent Suter a member of the rotation for a few years?

Tom Haudricourt: That depends on what other SP help the Brewers pick up this winter. The thing about Suter is you can start him or relieve him and he will help you. His attitude and smarts and ability to out-think hitters are all nice traits. Suter shows you can pitch effectively below 90 mph in the majors, which makes him fun to watch. Plus, he does a mean raptor walk.

JD (AZ): Tom, where does Jorge Lopez figure in the MIL prospect mix? Thanks for the chat!

Tom Haudricourt: I’m not sure what to say about Lopez at this point. He once ranked as one of the organization’s top starting prospects but did not continue to progress and was moved to a relief role in 2017. It’s up to him to make the most of that and still make it to the majors as a productive pitcher. But things certainly have changed for him.

Tom Haudricourt: Well, folks, there are no more questions in the queue, so I will call this a chat. Thanks to all who participated. Really appreciate your interest. And my thanks, as always, to the folks at BA who guide me through this every year. Also, best wishes to John Manuel and Will Lingo, who recently moved on to other things. I will always consider them good friends. Take care and happy holidays to all.