2018 Miami Marlins Top 10 Prospects Chat

J.P. (Springfield, IL): Thanks for the chat. What should we make of Tyler Kolek at this point? Can he ever come close to being the guy the Marlins drafted?

Kegan Lowe: Hello, everybody! Let’s get started with one of the more popular questions in the queue so far… As you may imagine, Kolek was the Marlins prospect that garnered the most debate here in the BA office. He ranked in our Midseason Top 10 a few months ago and there was at least some thought he should stick in the back half of the Top 10 in this most recent list. Ultimately, he’s probably the first or second name on the outside of the Marlins Top 10 as it stands now. However, he is a guy that would be able to jump back in with a good start to his 2018 season. It was obvious he was still working his way back from Tommy John surgery in 2017, but it’s hard to highly rate a guy who walked or hit 17 of the 31 batters he faced in a given season. If Kolek can find some semblance of fastball command and/or refine his off-speed pitches (slider and/or changeup) to the point where they are at least average, it wouldn’t be a complete shock to see him get back on track. Kolek still has plus fastball velocity that would, at worst, play very nicely in a Major League bullpen, but that is entirely dependent on his command and the maturation of his offspeed pitches. By no means would I give up on Kolek yet, especially not in this farm system, but I can’t help but get the feeling this could be a make-or-break season for the big righthander, who is nearly 22 and has yet to pitch past Low-A.

Frank (Indianapolis IN): How many of the top 10 could make BA's 100, if any?

Kegan Lowe: This is an interesting question, so I decided to phone a friend here in the BA office to get even more opinion. In the end let’s put it this way: If this was Las Vegas, we’d set the over/under for Marlins prospects in the BA Top 100 at 0.5. Obviously, being our Marlins No. 1, Trevor Rogers has the best chance to crack the Top 100, but it’s hard to say definitively either way at this point. I’d imagine he’ll be in the conversation for the back third/fourth of the list, however. I could also see Braxton Garrett being mentioned in the conversation, but I’d guess it’d be tougher for him to make it as he’s expected to miss most, if not all, of the 2018 season while recovering from Tommy John surgery.

Mike (Tampa, FL): Give it to us straight - are the Marlins dead last as far as systems go?

Kegan Lowe: I’m loving the optimism here, everybody. To answer your question, the Marlins could be dead last, but it’s not a complete slam dunk. I’d imagine they would definitely rank in the bottom three or four as it stands right now, but we haven’t finalized any of our Top 30s and started stacking teams against one another, either.

Greg (Cincy): Is there another minor league system that could improve as quickly considering who Miami could trade this offseason ?

Kegan Lowe: Greg brings up a valid point here, so let’s try to ease the pain of the last question and answer by looking at the positives if you’re a Marlins fan. The Marlins have a decent amount of MLB talent they could unload this offseason in order to rebuild the farm system, most interestingly of which is Giancarlo Stanton. Obviously the new ownership group has some big decisions to make in the next couple of months, starting with Stanton, but, if they do decide to sell off as much Major League talent as possible and start looking toward the future, this system could go from well below-average to at least average relatively quickly. And really, there’s no where to go but up anyway.

J.P. (Springfield, IL): Predict for us - is Stanton going anywhere this offseason? Got a team in mind?

Kegan Lowe: Since we’re talking about Stanton, let’s go ahead and make J.P. happy and make a prediction. I have no inside knowledge here, but if I had to guess on Oct. 27 what the Marlins were going to do with Stanton this offseason I would predict they trade him at or around the Winter Meetings. As for a particular team, your guess is as good as mine. It seems like the most-rumored favorites are the Giants, Cardinals and Phillies, but there are questions about all those destinations, as well. Do the Giants have enough prospects to get the deal done? The Cardinals already have a surplus of outfielders, and while it’s obvious Stanton would be the best of the bunch right now, it’d still be interesting to see how they make it all fit. And then with the Phillies there’s the age-old question — justified or not — of do you want to trade your franchise player inside your own division? Despite all those questions, I still think Jeter and Co. figure something out with someone and Stanton will open 2018 in another uniform. I just don’t know which uniform it’ll be.

Frankie (Morristown, NJ): Kegan, I couldn't help noticing you have Stanton on your 2021 lineup card. Clarify for me - this is the card as it stands *today*, right? So why is it dated four years from now?

Kegan Lowe: So this is a tricky one. We’re asked to predict a 2021 lineup, based on the players on the MLB team and in the farm system as it stands today. So even though I might think Stanton will be traded in a couple of months, he’s still a member of the organization as of this very second. In other words, if the Marlins kept all of their MLB and Minor League players from now until 2021, what would the lineup look like? Obviously this is not going to happen and I’d be surprised if I even got two or three of the predictions correct, but the exercise is meant to give a snapshot of what the Marlins could like four years from now, based on the collection of talent in the organization right now. Hope that helps clear up any confusion.

Noel (Portland): Nelson is error prone, Anderson is an above average 3rd baseman. Yet your future lineup projects Anderson at 1st and Nelson at 3rd. Why?

Kegan Lowe: Speaking of the 2021 lineup…I originally had Anderson penciled in for third base, actually. But that meant Nelson, who we ranked as the Marlins No. 4 prospect and second-best position player on their top 10, was left out. At the same time, there was a hole at first base, unless you choose to put your faith into Justin Bour, who would be 33 in 2021. Anderson was a highly versatile player in college and I know the Marlins like his ability to play different positions, although they still see him as a long-term third baseman. Projecting Anderson to play first base was more of a compliment to his versatility and Nelson’s future defensive potential more than it was a slight on Anderson’s defensive ability. Also, I think it’s important to remember that Nelson was only 19 playing in his first full season of pro ball this year. A lot of people I talked to said the majority of Nelson’s errors were just a lack of focus mixed with the fatigue of a long season. Most everyone I talked to still likes Nelson’s ability to be a potential plus defender at third base, it’ll just take some time getting comfortable with doing it every day at the professional level.

William (Pensacola, FL): In regards to the Top 10, which player was the hardest for you to evaluate ?

Kegan Lowe: Almost all of them? This is an interesting question because the Marlins have several guys worth debating and it seems like most of the players in their Top 10 have some sort of lingering question surrounding them. Obviously that’s the case for almost all minor league prospects, but it seems like the Marlins have more than their fair share of tough evaluations and it starts at the very top. Trevor Rogers has yet to pitch a professional inning, so obviously that makes him tough to evaluate. Braxton Garrett made only four starts this year, didn’t appear to be 100 percent, and then had Tommy John surgery and is expected to miss the 2018 season, so it wasn’t exactly easy to nail him down, either. And that’s not even including Kolek, who just missed the Marlins Top 10 but could be one of the biggest conundrums in all the minor leagues. I know that doesn’t answer your specific question, but maybe that’s just because the whole system is hard to evaluate right now?

JQ (NY): Any true top of the rotation arms in this system?

Kegan Lowe: Man, wouldn’t the Marlins brass like to know the answer to that question. In the most optimistic of lights, Trevor Rogers, Braxton Garrett and/or Tyler Kolek could all conceivably be something close to a top-of-the-rotation arm. Obviously we think Kolek is the least likely of those three to eventually reach that potential, but he was rated more highly then either Rogers or Garrett coming out of HS, so I suppose there’s always reason to keep believing. We’ve already discussed Rogers and Garrett, but we’ll have to see how Rogers does in 2018 and how Garrett returns from Tommy John in 2019 before we’ll truly be able to get a feel for whether or not either of them could be potential No. 1 or No. 2 starters in the big leagues. Ultimately, I’d be surprised if more than one of those guys, if that, becomes a true top-of-the-rotation arm. One other name I’d keep a very close eye on if I was a Marlins fan would be Edward Cabrera. The Marlins seem to really like this kid. His fastball velocity took a major step forward this year (94-96, reportedly topped at 101) and his slider can look like a plus pitch at times. He’ll turn 20 this April and still has a lot of refinement left to go, but there is a lot of projecting you could do with Cabrera. His ceiling is probably just as high as any other pitcher in the system.

Danny (Richmond, VA): Was Dillon Peters' poor MLB performance in 2017 just a sign that he wasn't quite ready for the highest level? Or is there reason for concern about him long-term?

Kegan Lowe: I don’t think you should be overly concerned with Dillon Peters, so long as your expectations of him are to be a back-end starter in the Major Leagues. Before making his ML debut in September, Peters had only thrown 68 innings above A-ball and I think his call-up was more about making a last ditch effort in the Wild Card race and seeing if a young guy could give the team a spark and produce on the mound. I think Peters will be given every opportunity to win a rotation spot out of Spring Training, but I’d guess starting the season in Triple-A is just as likely at this point. As you mentioned, the numbers weren’t great with the Marlins in September, so I don’t see any harm if giving him at least a month or two at Triple-A to start 2018 before finishing the season in the Majors.

Greg (Cincy): Prado out and Brian Anderson in?

Kegan Lowe: This relates to an earlier question & answer about the Marlins and the decisions that need to be made this offseason. Alongside Stanton and others, I’d bet Prado is someone the Marlins will gauge the interest in this offseason, if nothing else just to see what they could get in return. Anderson will turn 25 in May and I’d imagine the Marlins want to see if he could be their long-term third baseman sooner rather than later. Prado has two years and more than $28 million left on his current deal, which would be a lot to pay for a utility infielder if the Marlins went ahead and decided to go younger with Anderson at third. Maybe I’m overselling the Marlins plans to rebuild this offseason, but it wouldn’t surprise me one bit to see Prado traded before next season.

Jonathan (Syracuse, NY): Thank you for the chat! Were either Tyler Kolek or Thomas Jones close to making the list? Did anyone else present a case to slot alongside or ahead of Brayan Hernandez at #10?

Kegan Lowe: I’ve gotten a decent amount of questions about potential guys being just outside of the Top 10 and where they’d rank. Obviously we’ve already talked about Kolek, who is the early favorite for spot No. 11. It’s important to remember that we haven’t finalized any Top 30s yet, so it’s hard for me to nail down an exact spot for any of these players. However, I’d say Kolek, Thomas Jones, Colton Hock, Braxton Lee and Riley Mahan could all be in that next tier from 11-20. But again, don’t hold me to it because we haven’t finished ranking 11-30 quite yet.

Kegan Lowe: And with that, I’m out of here! I really appreciate all your questions. Be sure to check back to Baseball America on Monday, when we’ll release the Phillies Top 10 and then again on Wednesday, when the Nationals Top 10 is unveiled. We’re just getting started with all of the prospect lists, so if you or anyone you know isn’t subscribing to Baseball America quite yet, this is definitely the time to jump on board. So long, everybody!