2018 Cincinnati Reds Top 10 Prospects Chat

J.P. (Springfield, IL): Thanks for chatting. How close was Jeter Downs to making this list, and do you expect him to stick at short in the coming years?

C. Trent Rosecrans: Hey, no problem, thanks for the question. Let’s just say you won’t have to go too far past Tyler Stephenson when you read the Top 30 in the Prospect Handbook. I had one evaluator say their team thought the Reds got the best HS pitcher in the draft in Greene and the best hitter in the draft in Downs. He’ll be really interesting to see how he handles full-season ball next year

Frank (Indianapolis, IN): How many of these prospects are worthy, in your opinion, of making BA's top 100 list?

C. Trent Rosecrans: That’s really hard for me to answer, since I really only focus on the Reds. I think it’d be a shock to not see the first two really high. I really don’t know how else to answer, but I can see the top 5 or 6 being in there. It’s tough when you think about how many prospects there are

Kelly (St. Cloud, MN): What can you tell us about Alfredo Rodriguez and his ceiling?

C. Trent Rosecrans: The glove is already there. He’s a big-league caliber defensive shortstop. The question is the bat. The Reds believe in his bat more than anyone else. If he can hit a little bit, he can be a big-leaguer, but not everyone is sold that he can hit a little bit

J.P. (Springfield, IL): Besides possessing the best name of the 2017 draft class, what can you tell us about Cash Case? Will he make it into your top 30?

C. Trent Rosecrans: He’s interesting. I’m not sure where he plays defensively, but people like his swing. And that name is too good not to make it (although, I covered a HS kid earlier in my career who was drafted by the Cubs named Condor Cash, and I always thought he was too good not to make it. He didn’t.

Paul (Cincy): Are you still as high on T.J. Friedl now than when he signed with the Reds?

C. Trent Rosecrans: Good question. I think Friedl was one of those guys whose story was so good that it got played up. He’s definitely a good player to have in the system, but there’s a question if he’s ever more than a 4th outfielder. I described him to someone as a “Brett Gardner before he got really good” and they said that was a pretty good description

Eric (Pittsburgh, PA): Between lhp's Heatherly and Moss, who has the better chance of being a star?

C. Trent Rosecrans: Star? Heatherly, definitely. But if I’m betting on betting on becoming a big-leaguer? Well, that’s probably Moss

William (Pensacola, FL): Every year some player rejuvenates their prospect status after a disappointing year. Any predictions as to who will have a bounce back year in the Reds system in 2018 ?

C. Trent Rosecrans: That’s a great question. I think maybe Tyler Stephenson (even though he’s No. 10) or maybe Chris Okey

Mike (Miami, FL): Is Rookie Davis still eligible? What was the word you got from scouts on his first taste of the bigs?

C. Trent Rosecrans: Yes. There’s still plenty of questions, but nobody’s ready to give up on him. The hope is he gets healthy. A lot of people see him as a potential bullpen arm.

William (Pensacola, FL): Which level of the Reds minor league system will be the one to watch in 2018 ?

C. Trent Rosecrans: I think you’re still in a pretty good spot. Although, anywhere Hunter Greene is could be fun. Dayton should have some interesting guys to start with. But can you get shrimp and grits in a helmet bowl like you can in Pensacola? Nope.

J.P. (Springfield, IL): Are you at all concerned going forward about Nick Senzel's vertigo? I recall another Nick's career (who played with the Reds for most of it) being cut short for this condition - Esasky.

C. Trent Rosecrans: Nope

Grant (NYC): It's rather rare a player tops his system in both power and speed. If you had to compare Jose Siri to someone who has that same skillset, who would it be?

C. Trent Rosecrans: That’s a great question. One scout said to me about Siri — ‘he’s got tools out the ying-yang’ — and it’s true. Man, I’m really trying to think on that one. I mean, Josh Hamilton had that skillset, but Siri’s no Josh Hamilton (that dude…)

Doug Gray (Cincy, OH): How close was Taylor Sparks to making the Top 10 ?

C. Trent Rosecrans: His age works against him. So, not really. So much of his numbers were put up against younger competition. He’ll be 25 in April.

Ben (Miamisburg, OH): With Dick Williams saying that Nick Senzel could see some time at 2B in spring training, does that relegate Scooter Gennett back to a super sub role once Senzel is called up?

C. Trent Rosecrans: There’s a lot of time between now and then.

Kelly (St. Cloud, MN): If Greene was a shortstop only, would he still have ranked where he did?

C. Trent Rosecrans: No

Ben (Miamisburg, OH): What kind of innings limit do you think the Reds place on Hunter Greene in 2018? Will he start in Dayton, but not at the start of the season to manage those innings?

C. Trent Rosecrans: There will certainly be limits. I think there’s still a lot of feeling out when it comes to Greene. But do expect him to start in Dayton

Ben (Miamisburg, OH): Do you think the Reds will get Taylor Trammell more time in CF in 2018 or will he largely be relegated to LF again with defensive wunderkind Jose Siri likely starting in the same outfield in Daytona?

C. Trent Rosecrans: I think they’d like to see him in CF some, but most expect his arm to keep in LF. Playing next to Siri doesn’t help.

Ben (Miamisburg, OH): Would you chalk up Tyler Mahle's walk issues in his first 20 big league innings pitched as just making the adjustment, or will his excellent control in the minor leagues not be as effective against big league hitters?

C. Trent Rosecrans: Yeah, it was a tiny sample size

Ben (Miamisburg, OH): I know defensive metrics are still widely debated in their value, but do the numbers Jesse Winker had as a right fielder firmly establish him as a left fielder for the Reds in 2018?

C. Trent Rosecrans: Playing at Great American Ball Park makes any outfielder better and so too does playing next to Billy Hamilton. Winker could still play either side, it just really depends on who else is there. Ideally, though, he’s in LF

Ben (Montana): Thanks for the chat. Always appreciated. What are your thoughts on Keury Mella and Aristides Aquino? We're either close to making the top 10?

C. Trent Rosecrans: Hello Montana! I actually got there for the first time this year and already want to go back. Aquino was close. He may have been a better answer to an earlier question about a bounce-back year. The tools are so good that I think he still has a chance. Mella could be in the bullpen on Opening Day.

Alex (TN): Does Shed Long remind you at all of Brandon Phillips?

C. Trent Rosecrans: Not really. Phillips was a flashy defender. Shed isn’t as good of a defender as Brandon at second (not many are). Shed’s not as fast as Brandon was when he was younger, but I think Shed has a better hit tool and power.

Drew (Los Angeles, CA): It seems to me that the Reds have used a lot of high picks on catchers over the years and thereby - in my view - passed up on safer/better choices at a result. Is this wise, or do other organizations do this too?

C. Trent Rosecrans: Catcher is such a tough spot to find. I mean, if you look at top picks used on catchers in the last decade, there’s Mesoraco, Grandal and Stephenson. Two of those have All-Star appearances on their ledger and the other is still young and on this list.

Jeff Reynolds (cincinnati): With your duties as the Reds beat writer how are you able to see enough Reds minor league players to write the top 30 report?

C. Trent Rosecrans: I’m lucky enough to have a partner on the beat in Zach Buchanan, who does an amazing job with me at the Cincinnati Enquirer. That frees us to do other things. This year I went to Louisville, Pensacola and Billings, as well as my time in Arizona. But, most of this is talking to scouts and others in the industry and more or less aggregating their opinions into a list. I’ll trust what those guys see in one series over what I see in an entire year

Ben (Miamisburg, OH): Outside of Hunter Greene, is there any other pitcher in the Reds system with as much upside as Tony Santillan? Is just being consistent with his control the last piece for Santillan to emerge as one of the minors best pitching prospects?

C. Trent Rosecrans: No. Yes.

Ben (Miamisburg, OH): You mention a lack of potential future stars amongst the Reds system, who would be your top 5 prospects ranked purely on upside potential?

C. Trent Rosecrans: interesting question. Pure upside: 1. Greene 2. Senzel 3. Siri 4. Trammell 5. Aquino

Drew (Los Angeles, CA): Can you give me a consensus opinion in your office, or the industry, what the Reds should do with Winker? Should he be given a starting spot? If so, who should he replace?

C. Trent Rosecrans: That’s kind of the question. The thought is he’s a LF and he’s gonna hit. Those two things aren’t bad. The perfect scenario would probably be a trade of Duvall or Schebler. Or maybe Hamilton, depending on who gets you the best return. Thing is, there’s a glut of outfielders on the market.

Sean (NY): Am I crazy to see similarities between Senzel and David Wright? Plus plus hit, plus power, above average athleticism and defense with a sweet right handed stroke.

C. Trent Rosecrans: I had a scout last year make that same comp. I threw it out to a couple of others and they said they could see it. Reds would be happy with that, some forget just how good Wright was when healthy.

Martin (Maine): Jose Siri is the best power hitter and fastest and best athlete in the Cinci system. Does he then have the greatest upside potential if he can figure it all out? This is a pretty rare combination of talents ...

C. Trent Rosecrans: He would if this system didn’t also have Hutner Greene. But yeah, don’t forget he’s also the best defensive outfielder. He could play CF right now in the big leagues

Matt (Ohio): Outside of hitters not named Acuna, Tatis, and Bichette, did Talyor Trammell's prospect shine make the biggest jump? For a guy missing out on the midseason top 100, he seems to be deserving to be closer to top 50 when the 2018 rankings come out. Do you agree?

C. Trent Rosecrans: There are a lot of people who really, really like Trammell. I mean, people I know who don’t like anyone like Trammell

Lilith (LA): Jeter Downs had exactly the same OPS as Taylor Trammell did in Billings (.795) while playing a more challenging position. Do you think Downs could end up being as much of a blue chip prospect as Trammell by this time next year?

C. Trent Rosecrans: Yes. I can see that easily. I don’t think the consensus was as high with him as Trammell in the draft, but I know people who were really, really high on him. There are questions about his ability to stay at SS thoguht

Jonathan (Syracuse, NY): Thank you for the chat! Which prospects would make up the next tier of guys in consideration?

C. Trent Rosecrans: the three shortstops, for sure — Downs, Garcia, Rodriguez. Also LHP Jacob Heatherly and OF Stuart Fairchild, Aristides Aquino and Friedl

Drew (Los Angeles, CA): How far has the star of Garrett, Reed, and Stephenson fallen? Are they still likely to achieve most of their potential?

C. Trent Rosecrans: Oh, they’ve all fallen. Does anyone achieve most of their potential? Am I getting too philosophical? Too literal? Anyway, I don’t think the Reds would be keen on giving up on any of those three. Plus Stephenson had a really nice finish to the season

Joey (Sacramento): Does Jose Siri’s plate discipline concern you? His BB/K rate was bad.

C. Trent Rosecrans: Yep

Reds Fan (Ohio): Sensel has the highest floor, Greene has the highest ceiling, what is Trammella? He seems to be forgotten when discussing Reds prospects due to Nick Senzel and Hunter Greene. After watching Trammell play this year I see q true 5 tool guy. Do you think he makes a jump this year and starts being compared to top 20 prospects?

C. Trent Rosecrans: He’s got 4 legit tools, that’s for sure. The arm is probably below average. But yeah, he’s got the athleticism and is still a growing young man. He could become really, really good. Lots of Trammell questions, but I think they’re all pretty similar. Dude is legit. The other thing? A great kid

Ben (Washington, DC): Whatever happened to Nick Howard and Nick Travieso? Are they just languishing in minor league purgatory and not advancing towards the majors?

C. Trent Rosecrans: Travieso had shoulder surgery in June. Howard? Well, he’s fallen off. He just hasn’t been able to throw strikes

Jose (Louisville): If Senzel moved to 2nd base fulltime in the majors, any sense from evaluators how he would grade out there?

C. Trent Rosecrans: I think most feel he could play it pretty easily

Ben (Miamisburg, OH): I thought Vladimir Gutierrez had a fairly good year once you look past the stats and realize he just threw over 100 IP after nearly 2 years away from baseball going through the defection process from Cuba. Is he a player you could see taking a big leap forward in 2018 now that he is past that first acclimation period?

C. Trent Rosecrans: yes

Drew (Los Angeles, CA): Has the question, "Can Peraza be the every day shortstop?" been answered? Also, what happens at third when Senzel is ready?

C. Trent Rosecrans: No, it certainly hasn’t been answered, but he’ll get that opportunity it seems. As for Suarez? Both he and Senzel can play 3B, 2B, LF or RF. Having too many good players is rarely a real problem

Michael (Maysville): What upside for all the top 10. Meaning are they MVP, All-Star, Starters, Bench or situation call ups? Who among top 25 (outside top 10) could make biggest leap in 2018?

C. Trent Rosecrans: I think there’s first division upside from all the top 10. Victor Ruiz is someone to watch there

Mike (Indiana): Any thoughts on the season of Josh VanMeter? Can he be a super-utility big leaguer? THANKS!

C. Trent Rosecrans: Yeah, he’s not super sexy as a prospect, but he’s someone who can make the big leagues on versatility alone

Neil (Philly): Thanks for the chat! Are Aquino's days as a prospect over? Seems like the production has never caught up with the tools. Thanks!

C. Trent Rosecrans: I don’t give up on someone that young and that talented, but, you do have to have concerns if he’ll ever put it all together

Michael (Maysville): Looking at the ages listed for the 2021 season on average that would equate to 28 years old.. Seems a little old to me. How would this compare to the Astros rebuild age average.

C. Trent Rosecrans: the 2021 projections are not counting on free agent status, so they’re a complete guess

Ben (Miamisburg, OH): The Reds had a great outfield in rookie level Billings in 2017 with Miles Gordon, Stuart Fairchild, and Andy Sugilio. Which of those 3 would you see as most likely entering next years Reds top 10 list?

C. Trent Rosecrans: Fairchild is the most advanced and could move up the quickest

Drew (Los Angeles, CA): Considering his great success in the minors (two no-hitters), how is it that that still translates into only a "No. 4 starter" projection? How likely, or unlikely, is it that he exceeds those projections?

C. Trent Rosecrans: Mahle? I think most people think he’s pretty secure as a possible 3 or 4 starter. That’s a really, really valuable thing

Alex (Chicago): Juan Soto, Leody Taveras, Jesus Sanchez, Jahmai Jones, and Taylor Trammell are all high upside OFs in the low minors. In 2016, their rankings varied from top 30 to not making the top 100 (Trammell and Jones). Are all five now top 50-75 prospects? When ranking most impact with the bat/speed would you agree on Soto, Taveras, Trammell, Sanchez, and Jones?

C. Trent Rosecrans: I don’t work on the top 100, those are not the best questions for me. I really focus mainly on the Reds. Trammell, as I’ve noted, is good.

Lilith (LA): In your opinion, does Taylor Trammell have enough arm strength to stick in CF?

C. Trent Rosecrans: The arm is certainly in question. I think it’s good enough to play there, but think he would be better served in LF

Ace (Maine): Do you think Jose Siri is a prospect who could start to get some more love if he can cut down on his strikeouts in the upper minors? What's his ceiling in the MLB if he can put everything together and what is his floor?

C. Trent Rosecrans: that’s a pretty big IF. the floor? the floor is the floor, as in the bottom and never making the big leagues. but the ceiling is lofty

Michael (Maysville): Looking at your projected 2021 lineup I was surprised to see Billy still at CF? Does this show a vote of confidence or is he still better than our future farm?

C. Trent Rosecrans: Billy Hamilton is a really, really good defensive CF. the 2021 projection asks us not to look into contract status

Kyle (DC): Who are the most interesting prospects who haven't played stateside yet?

C. Trent Rosecrans: It starts with Jose Isreal Garcia

Ben (Miamisburg, OH): Has anything about Tyler Stephenson's injury history as a pro lead you to believe that he will have trouble staying healthy throughout his career or has he been more of a victim of bad circumstance and chance? He's flashed big time talent, but 2 years in a row now missing significant time, and he's only just 21 years old.

C. Trent Rosecrans: to me, they’ve been more freak occurrences than anything. others disagree, but there’s still upside there.

Bobby (Reno): Anything you can tell us about TJ Friedl? Is he a legit prospect? Thanks!

C. Trent Rosecrans: certainly. i think somewhere else on this chat i said something to the effect of he could be brett gardner before brett gardner got really good. that’s still a good player

Ken (Lakewood CA): Best athlete, best arm, best power hitter, best baserunner. Yet Siri is not part of your projected starting OF for 2021. Obviously you are not a believer in him figuring it out as he advances in the minors?

C. Trent Rosecrans: there is a lot of risk in siri

John (Peru): I know this isn't a minor league question, but you had an MVP vote, so I have to ask. What were the primary stats that you prioritized when considering the options? bWAR? RC+? I won't ask you to reveal who you picked, but a little information about how you picked must be okay, right?

C. Trent Rosecrans: oh, i look at all those things. i have a spreadsheet looking at about 15-20 stats across the board. i’m a big believer in wRC+ and use WAR (both bWAR and fWAR as well as WARP) as the blunt tools they are. I spend many hours on it. I’ll have a column in the Cincinnati Enqruier next week after the announcement of the MVP, along with my ballot

John (Peru): Given that Hunter Greene's fastball has a ton of natural sink, do you think he'll be told to keep the ball down? Do you think it might suppress his overall strikeout numbers and turn him into more of a groundball pitcher?

C. Trent Rosecrans: i think it’s way to early to start to speculate just what a finished hunter greene will look like

AJ (Orange County): Who is your breakout pick in 2018?

C. Trent Rosecrans: hmmmm… that’s a tough one. i’m sure I’ve had it in there, but… i’m high on jose lopez

Ace (Maine): Do you think Shed Long will be a top 100 prospect or in the MLB by this time next year? Also what type of career do you think is the most realistic expectation for him?

C. Trent Rosecrans: I don’t know. I’d hope so, because anyone who has listened to my podcast about Shed or read what I’ve written about him can gather I think he’s a special person. I’m not sure about how his career ends up. Remember, when talking about prospects, there’s still so much unknown. This is probably a cop-out, but I just don’t have a good, objective answer for this one

Michael (Maysville): Really surprised to see S. Fairchild at top rated defensive OF.. If this is true we some stud defender prospects.. What's upside for Fairchild on offensive side?

C. Trent Rosecrans: there’s a possibility that he’s a solid, everyday CF. i’ve seen people as high as 50 on power potential, and he’s shown it in BP. i’m not going to limit someone based on what they’ve done in the pioneer league

BK (Cincy): Thanks for all your great reporting and participating in this chat. In your 2021 lineup project you went with A. Garrett to fill out the backend of the projected rotation. What made you go with AG over say Romano, Santillan, and/or Vlad Gutierrez?

C. Trent Rosecrans: He’s gotten to the big leagues. You could have thrown a dart at any of those and there they’d be

G4 (Milwaukee): Good year at the plate for Blandino. Any plans/space for him at big league level in 2018?

C. Trent Rosecrans: well, we’ll see if they protect him. he’ll be rule 5 eligible if he’s not put on the 40-man. and if you’re on the 40-man, you’ve got a chance

Freddie (Mercury): Not sure he is a prospect or not anymore -- but does Cody Reed have a legitimate shot at being a rotation member for a few years - or is he most likely a bullpen arm? What has been his biggest issue in his MLB starts so far?

C. Trent Rosecrans: The arm isn’t the question with Reed. There are still plenty of people who believe he can be a top of the rotation guy. he has to stay within himself and throw strikes. that’s a pretty generic answer, but dude has as good of stuff as anyone.

Matt (Indiana): I want to get excited about Vlad Gutierrez. Are scouts upbeat on him?

C. Trent Rosecrans: there’s plenty of reason to be excited. he’s a good pitcher. three plus pitches, brass loves his attitude and work ethic. he got tired. he hadn’t pitched for a couple of years. it was a long season.

Eric (Harrisburg, PA): Things weren't Okey Dokey with Chris this past season. What are your thoughts on him right now?

C. Trent Rosecrans: he’s got to show he can hit. it’ll be a big year for him.

Kyle (DC): Does Jose Lopez make the top 30? What do you think his 2018 season looks like?

C. Trent Rosecrans: i think so. if everyone’s healthy, he may start the season in pensacola again, just bcause of the number of arms. that’s the rosy thought, though. i think he could be in the big leagues in 2018

CP (IN): Which guy in the Reds minor league system do you see having the greatest chance of being their next mainstay at CF? Trammel? Siri? Fairchild? Ect.

C. Trent Rosecrans: i think trammell is probably a lf, so i’ll go fairchild. if all goes well with siri, he could be a monster, but he’s boom or bust

JP (Owasso): Can you give us some insight on Jose Garcia? What are the tools like?

C. Trent Rosecrans: yeah, he’s kind of a mystery man. he’ll probably start at ss, don’t know if he’ll stay there. he’s got some speed. pretty good strike zone judgment. he uses all fields. he’s getting bigger and filling out. there’s some potential there.

Aaron (Ohio): If you took out Tyler Stephenson's injuries and just looked at the baseball side of things, do you think he would rank higher as a prospect? I feel like he gets good reports and he has solid numbers, so the main mark against him is his injury history. He never comes up in the discussion of top catching prospects, so do you think he'd be higher up if you weren't worried about the injuries? Thank you for the time!

C. Trent Rosecrans: there are split opinions on his work behind the plate. some see him as a DH or 1B. and it’s tough to take out injuries. that means you’re not on the field, you’re not learning, you’re not progressing

Fonz (Milwaukee): Does Stuart Fairchild project to be an average regular of 4th OF who can play every OF position?

C. Trent Rosecrans: from people i’ve talked to, he could be an everyday CF. 4th OF potential too, of course.

Ben (Miamisburg, OH): Jose Garcia is at an age where Low A Dayton seems like the best fit, but Jeter Downs is likely in Dayton to start 2018 as well. If both are there, who is the primary shortstop? Do they rotate through SS/2B/DH, or does one potentially just move off SS?

C. Trent Rosecrans: that’s one of those things that should work itself out. there are good questions. they think both can play ss.

Dan (Phillyburbs): If Sal romano hadn't surpassed his 50IP rookie limits where would he have ranked? What do you see his upside compared to Mahle?

C. Trent Rosecrans: i think romano has more upside, but not as much as a floor. mahle is a pretty special talent. it’d be interesting. but it’s kind of like the hypotheticals around awards, i haven’t done the work so i hate to speculate where he’d be in that decision.

Paul (Dayton): OF Narciso Crook was a top-30 prospect a couple years ago but has struggled to stay on the field since that time. I was always intrigued by his tools. What is the prognosis for Crook at this point in his development?

C. Trent Rosecrans: he’s still young-ish, but as they say in the nfl, you can’t make the club if you’re in the tub. it’s tough, but it would seem difficult for him to reach that level again

Ben (Miamisburg, OH): Do you think Tyler Mahle starts the year in AAA because the Reds are playing the service clock game, or because they will have enough healthy pitchers out of Homer/Disco/Finny/Castillo/Romano/Stepehenson/etc...?

C. Trent Rosecrans: i don’t like crystal ball questions. i mean, there’s a lot of time between now and april

C. Trent Rosecrans: Well, if there are no other questions, I want to make sure to thank everyone before I take off. (There were some redundant questions I didn’t answer — like a ton on Taylor Trammell, you guys love Taylor Trammell). Thanks for all the questions and thanks for reading. A special shout out to all the Veterans out there this weekend. Thank you for your service — including my dad, sister and brother-in-law.