2018 Cardinals Top 10 Prospects Chat

Kyle Glaser: Hey everybody, thanks for all your questions. This was a fun system to break down with a lot of talent. Look forward to chatting with you all about it

Gabe (St. Louis, MO): How far off the list was Delvin Perez, and are you getting worried about his future by now?

Kyle Glaser: Perez was actually in the top 10 in early iterations of the list despite his poor season. He isn’t too far off it because he still offers some promise with his youth, athleticism, and the work he put in to become a more reliable shortstop and not just a flashy, error-prone one. That said, there are some very, very serious concerns about his lack of hitting ability and strength. I don’t think you should jump ship completely just yet, but it is wise to be wary.

Frank (Indianapolis IN): How many of these guys could make the BA 100?

Kyle Glaser: Frank always reliable with the same question. Expect the top 5 to all be in there. Jordan Hicks at 6 on the cusp probably.

J.P. (Springfield, IL): Thanks for chatting, Kyle. Are you of the opinion Junior Fernandez's future is likely in the pen?

Kyle Glaser: Hey J.P, my pleasure. The answer is a hard yes. Hard throwing righties with a fastball-changeup combo but little feel to spin, below-average command and control and durability concerns equal reliever 101. That’s Fernandez.

Jake (Dallas, TX): Your thoughts on Mercado's shift to the OF? Was he a late cut from your list?

Kyle Glaser: It’s been a great move for him and everyone involved. Reminds me a lot of what the Padres did with Franchy Cordero, took him out of the infield where the errors got into his head, let his natural athleticism flourish in the outfield and you see the confidence in the bat tick up. Mercado is a top 15 prospect in the system but wasn’t really in top 10 consideration. His offense has improved, but I have yet to find an evaluator who thinks he’s more than a 4th outfielder because he still shows fringy to below-average hitting ability overall, with his pitch recognition, ability to use the whole field, and plate discipline all lacking. But he is a superb defender in center field who can run, throw, show you some bat speed and just has a lot of raw ability in general, so it’s not like he can’t carve out a role somewhere. He’s a good player, there just wasn’t quite enough faith in the bat playing at higher levels to elevate him into the top 10 of a very good system.

Taylor (Jackson, MS): What can you tell us about Jonathan Machado's projection?

Kyle Glaser: Leadoff hitter who plays a very good center field. Machado is very instinctual at the plate, has great strike zone awareness, recognizes pitches, makes quick adjustments – all the things you want to see out of a young hitter. He’s not very physical and doesn’t project to be, but if he can just keep making natural strength gains and hard contact as he has been, he’ll give you enough doubles and pop to play everyday.

J.P. (Springfield, IL): If you were in charge, which prospects in this system would you deal for Stanton, now that it's a distinct possibility?

Kyle Glaser: Haha fun one. A lot of it depends on how much money I have to pick up. But speaking purely talent, there is enough RHP depth and OF depth in the system you can trade two of each and probably turn out OK. To get a talent like that, you probably are going to have to deal your top guy who is ML ready (Alex Reyes) and Jordan Hicks too as an upside low minors guy, plus say Tyler O’Neill and Randy Arozarena…I honestly still don’t know if that package would get it done (again, a lot will come down to $$) but four of the top 12 or so, if they come from that RHP and OF depth, I’m ok making that type of deal.

Jeff (St Louis): What are your thoughts on the logjam in the outfield? Seems we have a ton of on the doorstep talent in the OF and not a lot else.

Kyle Glaser: Well, Dexter Fowler (contract) and Tommy Pham (awesomeness) aren’t going anywhere, so it really comes down to the rest. I do trade Grichuck (about to be more expensive in arbitration and not improving his K-rate). Piscotty I’m not a huge fan of selling low on, but if the right deal comes along I can see moving him. But yes, trading 2 or 3 of the prospect-eligible OFs along with Grichuck should at least help bring back some needed bodies in the infield and bullpen.

Oscar the Grouch (Sesame Street): Could Austin Gomber become more than you think he is at present, and sneak into STL's rotation at some point next year?

Kyle Glaser: It’s possible, but Gomber projects as a more of a swingman or spot starter for most evaluators. His curveball had showed plus in the past but was more average for evaluators this year, and with an average fastball as well and no other plus offering, it’s hard to stick in a rotation 32 starts a year, year after year. But he’s a durable lefty who can maneuver through a lineup a few times, and he definitely has the ability to help out a club as that valuable spot starter/swingman.

Paul (St. Louis): I'm bummed about Delvin Perez's career thus far. Sum it up for us, please - is it strictly a maturity issue? Can he turn it around?

Kyle Glaser: It’s actually a physicality issue. The guy looked one way and showed a certain ability to impact the ball, then got popped for PEDs, and came back looking like a stick with zero strength. He can barely get the ball out of the infield right now, and when it does get to the outfield it’s a lame duck. Consider: he had all of 24 hits the entire season, and a quarter of them were infield hits. He was always skinny, but go back and watch some footage from the UA All-America game you’ll see some width in the shoulders, some ability to drive the ball, a little bit of upper body strength you can work with. Now, that’s all disappeared post PED test. Combine that with really poor pitch recognition and feel to hit that has a long way to go, it’s not a good mix. That said, he’s so young and shows you some bat speed and athleticism, you don’t want to say it can never come back or get better. It is possible. But he’s got a long, long, long way to get there.

Dan (Baltimore): Time to worry about Delvin Perez, right? Still can’t put on weight or make authoritative contact

Kyle Glaser: See above.

William (Pensacola, FL): What do you need to see from Tyler O Neil next year to feel comfortable moving him up in the rankings?

Kyle Glaser: Less swing-and-miss and a better two-strike approach

Jonathan (Syracuse, NY): Were any other prospects close to sneaking onto the back of this list, or did Helsley have a clear edge for the 10th spot?

Kyle Glaser: Randy Arozarena and Jose Adolis Garcia were in the discussion, as was Perez if you wanted to take a leap of faith. At the end though, the quality of Helsley’s stuff (more than a few evaluators think he actually belongs right next to Jordan Hicks in the rankings), his track record and his proximity to the majors put him over the edge.

Casey (Bella Vista, AR): I feel like Zac Gallen is a forgotten man. How does his future look?

Kyle Glaser: Gallen isn’t forgotten at all. I had a lot of conversations about him and watched him a good bit, and you’ll see him ranked very well when you buy our Prospect Handbook. He’s a guy that pitches to his strengths, has four pitches he can throw for strikes, really good command, works quickly, good athlete, excellent makeup. His stuff just wasn’t quite at the level of some of the other guys in the top 10, which is a more a testament to the Cardinals pitching depth than a knock on Gallen. Most evaluators saw Gallen as a 5th starter upside guy because he’s a command/pitchability righthander with some deception who throws strikes but doesn’t have anything plus. I wouldn’t be surprised if he exceeds that projection, though.

Bradley (San Diego, CA): Is Alex Reyes still viewed as a starter long-term?

Kyle Glaser: Absolutely. A rotation spot is his for the taking if he stays healthy.

Johnny (STL): Have you seen Jordan Hicks at all in the AFL, and if so, how does his control look? What's his realistic chance of ending up a starter as opposed to a reliever, and then, is mid rotation starter really the limit?

Kyle Glaser: Mid-rotation is Hicks’ ceiling because his control and command won’t ever be more than average. Gotta have better than that to be a 1 or 2. And right now he has a lot of work to do to get there. He has a chance to start, maybe 30 percent, but if he ends up a two-pitch guy blowing 98+ with a power curveball at the end of games, that’s not a bad outcome either.

Kyle (St. Louis): Was Andrew Knizner close to making the Top 10? Is he better than what Carson Kelly is at this time last year?

Kyle Glaser: Knizner isn’t there yet. He shows some really promising hitting skills and he’s working hard behind the plate, but there are still quite a few steps he needs to take defensively. And no, Kelly’s defense puts him way, way ahead of where Knizner is, although Knizner is a fine prospect in his own right and has a place in the Handbook.

George (St. Louis): Who are some likely sleeper prospects going into next spring for the Cardinals?

Kyle Glaser: Assuming Ivan Herrera is no longer a sleeper because he led the system in hitting and was a classification All-Star, there are couple low level pitchers to keep an eye on. First is Will Latcham, a 17th-rounder who showed two potential plus pitches out of the bullpen at State College and could be a quick riser. The other is Jose Moreno out in the DSL. Played nearly the entire year as a 16 year old and sat 90-92, touch 94, with a promising 11-to-5 curveball. Athletic delivery, clean arm action, aggressive. He’s going to need time, and a lot of it, but factor in some physical projection and this kid could be scary down the road.

Jon (St. Louis): What feedback did you get on Delvin Perez? How much did his stock fall this year?

Kyle Glaser: On one hand, there was positive feedback on Perez’s shortstop defense. He did a really nice job working with Jose Oquendo at learning how to play under control and make his tools actually translate into being a reliable shortstop. On the other hand, it was all bad with the regards to bat, with the caveat that he has bat speed. As such, his stock cratered. One opposing pro scouting director straight up said “his value right now is zero.” That may be a little extreme, and I think jumping ship on him is premature, but Perez has a lot of work to do.

Paul (Little Rock): Do you believe Oscar Mercado’s offensive turnaround was legit? Outstanding first half, but really struggled in the second. Also, what does his offensive profile look like?

Kyle Glaser: We touched on this briefly before, but to repeat, Mercado made strides, but still his overall offensive profile is that of a fringy-to-below average hitter, not a guy you play everyday. He does enough to find a home somewhere on an ML bench though if he keeps making strides.

Kyle W. (Jacksonville, FL): What's the report on Zac Gallen? Pitched at three levels last summer with tremendous numbers and didn't make the top ten?

Kyle Glaser: I would refer you back to my previous answer in the chat on Gallen and what led to him falling just short of the top 10. As for a full, detailed scouting report, it will be in the Prospect Handbook and I encourage you to check it out

Kyle W. (Jacksonville, FL): Time to give up on Nick Plummer?

Kyle Glaser: Let me put it this way – no one I spoke with inside or outside the Cardinals organization fought to put Plummer in the Top 30.

mjk (wyckoff, nj): Hi..I believe you do not typically consider folks that will not be under contract when predicting future line ups, but how strong can the outfield prospects be for St Louis if a 35 year old Dexter Fowler is still their CF in 2021? tx

Kyle Glaser: Had more to do with Fowler’s contract and the fact he’s signed through 2021 and the odds of someone else taking him aren’t great. Initially we had Magneuris Sierra as the 2021 CF with Fowler shifted to LF, but as we made more calls and got a sense from more people on the true ceilings of some of these guys, we ended up leaving Fowler in CF and O’Neill in LF. That all said, if you want to think of it as Sierra in CF, O’Neill or Bader in LF and Fowler on the bench as a 35 year old in the last year of his contract by that time, that’s perfectly reasonable.

Adam (St. Louis): With a fastball that sits in the high 90's and tops out at 100, I would think Sandy Alcantara would get more strikeouts. Is it command, an issue with his secondary pitches, not enough deception in his delivery, or is his fastball too straight? Does Sandy project to be more of a strikeout pitcher going forward as an SP or does he project as more of a bullpen option?

Kyle Glaser: Alcantara leaves his fastball up over the plate. A lot. Simple as that. You can throw as hard as you want. If you leave it up over the plate, you’re going to get hit in Double-A (as he did) let alone the majors. His secondaries need tightening, but really, even if he tightens those up, he’s still going to get hit as long as he leaves his fastball out over the plate. To be 100 percent honest, he’s a bullpen guy for me because his fastball command and secondary consistency are not enough to get 5-6 quality innings out of against ML hitters. But….he’s still young, and he shows you enough flashes I wouldn’t consider starting completely out of the question. I just think its 95-5 he ends up in a the bullpen.

Mike R (Lockport, NY): Where, if at all, does Patrick Wisdom fit into the Cardinal's plans ?

Kyle Glaser: We’re about to find out. He’s Rule 5 eligible this year, and if the Cardinals don’t add him to the 40-man, we’ll have our answer.

Tyler (Peoria, IL): What do you make of the Cardinals outfield glut? They seem to have a lot of players (Bader, Sierra, O'Neill) in the upper levels of the system who could be major league regulars in the outfield. Do you see the Cardinals trading one of them or a Piscotty or Grichuk?

Kyle Glaser: Grichuk to me is the first to go. Piscotty it really depends on the deal, because selling low isn’t a great option. But yes, the three prospects you mention all have regular potential (as do Arozarena and Adolis Garcia, who also finished in the upper levels), so there is a lot of space that needs to be cleared sooner rather than later.

Mike J (St Louis): Is Delvin Perez still regarded as a top prospect? And physically, does he look like he can stay at shortstop?

Kyle Glaser: Considering Perez isn’t in the top 10 in his own org, that should answer your first question. And sticking at shortstop isn’t his problem. Hitting is.

Neil (Philly): Thanks for the chat, Kyle. I was lucky enough to get down to the AFL last week. I was wondering what you think of 2 Cards I saw down there who looked pretty good - Knizner and Mercado. Thanks!

Kyle Glaser: My pleasure Neal. Glad you got a chance to go down there, always a good time in the AFL. I like them both. Knizner as a catcher who can actually, legitimately hit is exciting, and Mercado does some really good things for you with his speed and defense. Both will be in the Handbook as two very good prospects in a very good system

Norm Chouinard (Connecticut): Would Cardinal management likely consider a rotation with 2 young catchers in 2020 (Carson Kelly backed up by Knizer) or are they more likely to trade Knizer and go for a veteran in the rotation?

Kyle Glaser: As much as Knizner is a nice prospect, he alone wouldn’t bring you back a veteran starter. I think it’s always a good idea to hang on to your catching depth, and Knizner still has some work to do behind the plate. You’ll likely see the excess outfielders and righthanders traded before Knizner

Bertram (Taiwan): What is the plan for Carson Kelly? With Yadi locked up he obviously won't get a chance to start for a few years. The Cardinals seemed more interested in playing Yadi 6/7 days a week until they were out of it. Is he better in AAA than getting 4/5 PA's a week?

Kyle Glaser: Kelly still had some developmental steps to take at Triple-A offensively and he made them. Now I think you keep him in the majors and start working him in more, especially with the next wave of Cardinals starters he’s going to catch for a long time (Reyes, Weaver, Flaherty) set to play a bigger role. If that just means Yadi plays 115 games behind the dish instead of 135, that added rest that will only help considering he’ll be 35 next year.

Jacob (Dallas, TX): Was Arozarena in considering for the 10th spots? What type of ceiling do you see him having? Any chance for top 100 status?

Kyle Glaser: Arozarena was in consideration for that 10th spot. His ceiling is a leadoff hitting, on-base guy with a chunk of doubles and a serviceable amount of home runs. Now his hittability fell off quite a bit in AA, although he still got on base, and I think his second year in the U.S. may be better than his first. He’s not a Top 100 guy right now, but if he comes back to Double-A and the bat is really going, we’ll re-examine

Josh (Tampa): What’s the upside of Jordan Hicks? It seems like his arsenal is getting better and better each season.

Kyle Glaser: It’s all in the scouting report in our Top 10 story. I encourage you to subscribe so you can read

Jordan Hicks' Fanclub (Jordan Hicks' Closet): Tell me all the good stuff about Jordan Hicks please.

Kyle Glaser: Repeat: It’s all in the scouting report in our Top 10 story. I encourage you to subscribe so you can read

G4 (Milwaukee): Love Top 10 season! A lot of power pitchers in this list. How does a guy like Jake Woodford stack up? Did his stuff show any uptick this year? Thanks!

Kyle Glaser: Woodford is in the next group, 11-20 range. He’s a fine young pitcher. His stuff hasn’t ticked up yet (still mostly 91-92, touch 94) but it has plenty of time to. He’s improving and showing some good things. Keep an eye on him

Johnny (St. Louis): Did Junior Fernandez slip or is this just a deep system?

Kyle Glaser: Fernandez didn’t really slip. He was BA’s No. 21 Cardinals prospect last season, and he’s around the same spot this year

Johnny (St. Louis): Andrew Knizner has impressed at the AFL, even making the hot list this week. Can you see a circumstance where with Molina now signed for the extra 3 years Kelly is traded and Knizner is the eventual heir apparent? Was Knizner close to this list?

Kyle Glaser: Knizner has made some strides but has a ways to go defensively. It will take time. I’d be very, very, very surprised to see them move Carson Kelly, simply because of how much they’ve invested in him, the offensive strides he’s made and the quality of his defense. Knizner is really good, but he wasn’t in Top 10 consideration quite yet

Johnny (St. Louis): Zac Gallen has been rushed through the system the way that the Wacha and Gonzales were previously. Does he stay a starter? Was he close to this list?

Kyle Glaser: Gallen doesn’t have the nastiness of Wacha’s stuff, and Marco Gonzales frankly isn’t very good. Gallen is somewhere in the middle. He can definitely stay a starter. As far as Top 10, you can see above answers as to where he fell just short

Bill (St. Louis): I’m curious why Hicks isnt seen with the same upside as Reyes. You said the stuff is as good as anyone in the system, and his walk rate is better than Reyes’ at the same level. Sure, he doesn’t have the big frame, but he has more athleticism to compensate

Kyle Glaser: Command command command. Jordan Hicks struck out 7.3 at Peoria this year. Alex Reyes struck out 11.3 when he was there and was a year younger. Hicks has a lot of work to do to put his stuff on the parts of the plate that get consistent swings and misses or called strikes, which is every bit as important (if not more) than raw velocity. On that note, Reyes had a 3.60 ERA and allowed less than a hit per inning as 20-year-old in the AFL. (even with 6 BB/9). Hicks right now has an 8.49 ERA with .364 opponent average there. It’s not just about stuff, it’s about how it plays, and Reyes’ stuff played way, way more than Hicks because even though he was wild, his quality of strikes were exceptionally high. Hicks isn’t there

Tom (St. Louis, MO): Out of Alcantara, Hicks, Helsley, Hudson, and Fernandez, who ends up worthy of the cards rotation and who is in the pen? All seem like potentially dominant bullpen arms

Kyle Glaser: Fernandez shouldn’t be in this conversation. He’s a reliever, pure and simple. I honestly think all might end up as relievers, but I’d give the edge to Hudson as the one who may start.

Ben (Missouri): Do you see more Chris Archer or Joe kelly in Hicks? seems like the two most likely outcomes for him

Kyle Glaser: Saying those are the two most likely outcomes is very, very lofty. Plenty of hard-throwers with a breaking ball never figure out their command and can’t get out of Double-A. Chris Archer is expecting too much. Think more Jose Urena.

Johnny (Arizona): Not a Cardinals fan, but I saw Jordan Hicks pitch the other day. That is some of the nastiest stuff I’ve ever seen.

Kyle Glaser: No doubt. Hicks can bring it. Fastball curveball combo is ridiculous. That’s why he’s ranked so high in an excellent system. At the same time, he has a lot of work to do. His K-rate in Low A and his struggles in the Fall League illustrate that. Again, he’s a really, really good young pitcher with a bright future ahead. He’s just not as polished or ready as I perceive some Cardinals fans think he is.

Willy (Edwardsville, IL): The reports on Hicks’ offspeed are never the same. In the AFL he was throwing a soft 12-6 curve and two plane slider, but I’ve always heard about a 70 grade 83-85 mph two plane curve. Can this be chalked up to trying out new things in Arizona?

Kyle Glaser: Our scouting report as written in the Top 10 prospects reflects what you’re seeing. Subscribe and you can read what his arsenal actually is and what he’s throwing

Ken (StL): The 2021 rotation includes only Flaherty and Reyes. Does that mean the others are projected for the pen, or their upside isn’t good enough to overtake those guys?

Kyle Glaser: A little bit of both. Are Sandy Alcantara and Jordan Hicks and Dakota Hudson viable future starters?. Sure. But do they project to beat out Carlos Martinez and the reborn Michael Wacha if they are both in STL and pitching like they can at that time? Not yet. If all those guys are in the bullpen though, you’ve got a nasty unit that you should be proud of.

mike (stl): how does the pitching in this system compare to other systems?

Kyle Glaser: Very, very well. There are legitimate, desirable prospects at AAA, AA, HiA and LoA, all the way down to the DSL. Very few systems can legitimately say that. The Braves and Padres are probably a little better, but I feel fairly comfortable saying the Cardinals are a Top 5 system if we were only evaluating pitchers

Aaron (St. Louis): Of the ten outfielders named which 3 have the highest overall upside?

Kyle Glaser: Well the 10 included the major league guys, so what they can do is pretty well established. As far as which of the prospects have the highest upside, I humbly refer you to our Top 10 rankings.

Jill (St. Louis, Missouri): The team’s biggest issue is a lack of true impact bats. Do any players, on this list or not, have the potential to be all star caliber hitters?

Kyle Glaser: You just hit on the Cardinals’ shortcoming. Tyler O’Neill has the potential to be an All-Star in the way Mark Trumbo/Khris Davis are, but he may not get there. Beyond him, there really aren’t any impact bats in the system (unless you really, really, want to project on Jonathan Machado 5-6 years away). That’s partially why a trade for Giancarlo Stanton is so appealing for the Cardinals in particular.

Thomas (Manchester, MO): Why is Pham not in the 2021 lineup?

Kyle Glaser: Because he’ll be 33 on Opening Day that year. To be honest, putting Fowler on there at 35 was more a reflection of his contract than what his performance is expected to be at that time. If you wanted to go O’Neill, Sierra, Piscotty as the starting OF, that’s as viable if not more (Bader can slot in there too). Lot of young options that by 2021 should overtake the guys in their mid-30s

Ed (in bed.): If you're Mozeliak, which of these prospects are you packaging together to try to buy a Giancarlo or a Donaldson?

Kyle Glaser: I’d hesitate to trade, say, 4 of the top 5, but if you keep it to the RHPs and OFs, in regards to Stanton, one of Reyes/Flaherty, one of Hicks/Hudson/Helsley, and some mix of your OFs (whether that’s Piscotty plus one prospect or two of the top OF prospects) isn’t something I’d refuse to part with, depending on the money involved and who is picking up how much. Donaldson a little less so, wouldn’t go quite as heavy

Jon (St. Louis): Am I the only one who thinks Arozarena could be a very good player? 8 HR and 22 doubles in 70 games in the FSL is very hard to do. Combine that with plus speed and the patience he showed in AA and he sounds kind of similar to Tommy Pham.

Kyle Glaser: No, you are not alone. Quite a few people think Arozarena could be a very good player, and that’s why he ranks very well in a very good system, which you’ll see in our Prospect Handbook

Roger (Oklahoma City, OK): Was Oscar Mercado's power numbers this year an outlier or the real deal? Does he have the chance to be an everyday OF in the bigs?

Kyle Glaser: We’ve answered this question before, but the general sense is on Mercado as an everyday option. Too many shortcomings with the bat, even though it has greatly improved. He is more of an extra outfielder, but a valuable one to have in the NL

Richard (New York): What’s the outlook on Jake Woodford? Was he considered?

Kyle Glaser: Woodford was not in Top 10 consideration, no, but he’s got a solid outlook. A lot of it will depend on his velocity jumps, but even if it doesn’t he’s got the pitchability and smarts to rise as a back-end starter

Dan (Augusta, ME): How much more could we see out of Randy Arozarena after he's had a full year to acclimate to the US? Thanks.

Kyle Glaser: There is a reasonable chance we see a good bit more. Not like his debut was poor by any means, and the second year is always easier than the first.

Allen (IL): If you decide to work for the Minnesota Twins, are you required to be "woke"?

Kyle Glaser: I think it’s good to be “woke” to be a decent human being. If the Twins want to focus on hiring people like that, more power to them

Blake (St. Louis, MO): The Cardinals have a unique situation at catcher, with Yadi re-upping for 3 more years and highly regarded prospect, Carson Kelly, now serving as his back-up. Where does Andrew Knizer fit into all this? Can he make enough of a leap in the next 2-3 years to warrant the Cardinals possibly looking at using Kelly as a trading chip?

Kyle Glaser: It is possible, but again, Knizner has some work to do behind the plate before you would feel comfortable pulling the trigger on Kelly. I think we’re most likely to see Kelly stay in a Cardinals uniform at least through this year, and then we can re-examine Yadi’s health, Knizner’s defensive progression, and go from there

Kyle Glaser: Watch, I say all that and then Kelly gets traded in a week.

Bill (STL): Wow...I felt like the farm system was looking great but now it seems like the only guy who could be more than an average regular is Reyes. Everyone else is really no more than midrotation, bullpen, or average hitters?

Kyle Glaser: Um, having starting pitching depth 1-through-5, a deep group of solid-average ML caliber hitters and lights out bullpen is how you build a winning team. That’s a good thing you just described, not a bad thing

Kyle W. (Jacksonville, FL): Is Jake Woodford nothing more than a back end starter?

Kyle Glaser: First off, let’s please get away from being disappointed about back-end starters. Guys who can go out and give you 175 innings of solid-average performance year after year is incredibly valuable. You need 1s and 2s, you also need quality back-end guys. Try winning without quality back end guys in your 4 and 5 spots, and see how it goes. Woodford projects as a back-end starter, yes. If that means he pitches 10 years in the majors with a league-average ERA+, that’s a hell of a successful outcome for any high school pick, especially a non-first rounder. (He was supp 1st)

Tyler (Peoria, IL): What are your thoughts on the Cardinals 2017 draft class, which was impacted by the hacking penalty? Who could make a big league impact out of their top picks?

Kyle Glaser: They did as well as they could given the circumstances. It’s brutal not having a first or second rounder, and then especially when your third rounder is in the back half (pick No. 94 as opposed to say, No. 77). Scott Hurst has a path to a big league future as a lefthanded hitting center fielder with speed and improved feel to hit. He’s probably your guy, as you’d expect

Kevin (STL): Can you tell me more about 3 GCL prospects that I’ve been very curious about: Leandro Cedeño, Carlos Soto, and Elehuris Montero? Thanks!

Kyle Glaser: Carlos Soto projects as the best of the bunch, even though his numbers didn’t reflect that. Good strike zone awareness with intriguing pull-side power, started pressing once he got into a slump and like many teenagers needs to learn to work out of that. Receiving needs work, but a potential offensive catcher with power is a solid profile

Jeff (Minnesota): Will Reyes be healthy for spring training, or later in the season?

Kyle Glaser: As of right now, Alex Reyes is on track to be ready for the start of spring training, as it notes in his scouting report. A setback would throw that off, of course, but that’s where he stands right now

Nate (Missourra): What's the report on Jose Adolis Garcia these days?

Kyle Glaser: One of the best outfield arms managers have seen in years. Really strong, gap to gap authority that is going to progress into home runs, and his aggressiveness has really been tamed to a reasonable level, although he’s always going to be aggressive. Garcia is a big power-arm combo that fits perfectly in right field. I expect to see him in the majors some time in 2018

Joe (MO): Is weaver really good enough to be in the rotation for a while? His lack of a decent 3rd pitch or any plane to his fastball seems dangerous to me

Kyle Glaser: Yes. He has things to improve not doubt, but you’re also talking about a guy who misses bats (10.9 K/9 in the majors) lowered his walk, hit and home run rates his second time through, and overall finished with a very fine line that was inflated by two bad outings at the end of the season. Two solid pitches, a track record of missing bats and improving control are all great places to be at for a guy who is about to enter his age-24 season.

Joel (St. Louis): Whats your thoughts on Edmundo Sosa?

Kyle Glaser: Two things: 1. Sosa has to stay healthy, You can’t be a regular if you aren’t playing. 2. For a guy who’s shortstop defense is his calling card, he gives up on a lot of plays ML shortstops have to make. Sosa was honestly the guy who dropped the most from the time I started the list to what the final list looks like, and there was a sense, frankly, from Cardinals officials they aren’t expecting much out of him.

Johnny (St. Louis): Rough year for Ronnie Williams. Does he still have a shot at a big league career as a starter? Will he rank in the top 20?

Kyle Glaser: Ronnie Williams isn’t ranked in the Top 30. No one who saw him this year saw a big leaguer – and, like Plummer, no one inside or outside the org fought for his inclusion. He has so much work to do with his control, just focus on the baby steps of that before even thinking about his big league role.

Gregory (Springfield): What are your thoughts on how Dylan Carlson did in Peoria at such a young age? Will he be emerging as a top OF prospect soon?

Kyle Glaser: Carlson doesn’t have anywhere near the tools of the top OF prospects (Acuna, Robles, etc). He’s a 55 power potential, questionable hittability, doesn’t steal bags….He has a lot of work to do. He’s a good mature kid and with baseball savvy, but no one who saw him was particularly impressed with his play. Next year in the FSL will be big for him

Norm Chouinard (Connecticut): Re: Knizer. My bad, I meant him as in a catcher "rotation" with Carson Kelly getting 100 starts and Kinizer 60. Poor choice of words on my part.

Kyle Glaser: Gotcha. And yes, I could see that being the endgame down the road after the Yadi era ends

Kyle W. (Jacksonville, FL): Will St. Louis continue to amp up their presence in the Asian free agent market moving forward? Any realistic chance they land Ohtani?

Kyle Glaser: I do know they had some personnel doing some scouting in Japan in mid-September, so they are maintaining an active presence in Asia. As far as Ohtani, that’s all such a cluster right now as far as the MLB and MLBPA and the posting system discussions, no team should get their hopes up right now.

Josh (Illinois): Does this system have the best catching depth? Kelly, Knizner, Ortega, Herrera, Soto...

Kyle Glaser: It’s an interesting discussion I can’t say I’d thought of. The Dodgers (Keibert Ruiz, Will Smith, Connor Wong, Kyle Farmer) I’d put ahead. I’d need to do some more digging on other teams, but I think it’s reasonable to say the Cardinals have a better group of catchers than most orgs, with an ML-ready top guy, a good hitter in AA, and some interesting young kids down low

Johnny (St. Louis): Of those listed above (or another name if necessary) who is the most likely solution to the Cards closer issues long term?

Kyle Glaser: I humbly refer you to our projected 2021 lineup in our Top 10 article

Kyle (Kirkwood): Outside of Reyes, is there anyone to actually be excited about as a core piece?

Kyle Glaser: There are very, very few “core piece” prospects in baseball at any one moment. There are maybe 10-15. The fact the Cardinals have one is something to be celebrated, not concerned about

Johnny (St. Louis): Does Rayder Ascanio figure in to the top 30?

Kyle Glaser: No

Johnny (St. Louis): Is this the best outfield prospect unit in baseball as a whole?

Kyle Glaser: I think if you take the top 5 OF prospects in any one system and stack them up, the Cardinals would be in the top 5, probably top 3

Johnny (St. Louis): Can you compare where the system is today to where it was just before Jeff Luhnow's departure? Seems like it is as strong as it has been since.

Kyle Glaser: Interesting question that made me bust out an old Prospect Handbook. After the 2011 season, when Luhnow left, the Cards top 16 prospects included Shelby Miller, Carlos Martinez, Oscar Taveras (RIP), Kolten Wong, Lance Lynn, Matt Adams, Trevor Rosenthal and Matt Carpenter. (with folks like Maikel Cleto, Charlie Tilson and Joe Kelly 14, 15, 16) So that’s 3/5ths of a starting rotation, 3 quality starting infielders, a lockdown closer, and a potential superstar OF. I think, truthfully, that years farm system is probably better than this one, but this one is plenty good

Johnny (St. Louis): I had the chance to see Knizner in the AFL a couple of weeks ago. Seemed to really struggle with sliders defensively. Is that a major concern moving forward?

Kyle Glaser: All around Knizner’s catching needs work, which is understandable considering he’s only been doing it for three years. Blocking, receiving, throwing. He’s putting in the effort to get there, it will just take time and reps

Bill (STL): I agree, that’s how you build a winning team, not a contending one. Not trying to argue but few Cardinal fans are content with being a few games over .500, which is what this system seems to be.

Kyle Glaser: I think it’s fair to say they need to make some trades to supplement the weaker spots of their organization. But can you contend for one of five postseason spots with a rotation fronted by Carlos Martinez, Alex Reyes, Michael Wacha and Luke Weaver, a lineup where 6 of 8 guys posted OPS+ of 109 or higher with power supplements like O’Neill, Garcia and speed supplements like Sierra and Mercado coming, and a bullpen potentially of Dakota Hudson, Ryan Helsley and Sandy Alcantara taking you through 7-8-9? Yes, you absolutely can.

Kyle W. (Jacksonville, FL): Johan Oviedo's future role?

Kyle Glaser: I was actually surprised at how lukewarm evaluators were on Oviedo when we made our end-of-season calls. He’s young, he’s huge, he’s strong, but the reports were average at best fastball, fringy slider and well below-average changeup. One thing that could make a difference is when he first came to the U.S., he didn’t take care of his body or eat well. If that changes, and he maintains his body a little better, we could see the stuff tick up.

Connor (NE): I know he wasn't anywhere close to the top 10 list, but is Johan Oviedo a dude?

Kyle Glaser: So to follow up on my previous answer, Oviedo is not a dude yet. But I will be very, very curious to see how he comes out next year, and if he’s in great shape and gained a few ticks, then we’re talking

Kyle W. (Jacksonville, FL): I'm high on Dylan Carlson, especially since he played the entire 2017 season as an 18 y/o in the Midwest League. Thoughts on his future?

Kyle Glaser: Again, most evaluators just did not see the tools to project much from Carlson. I think his youth and playing in cold weather certainly could have played a role, and his second full season playing in the warm weather FSL will be telling. But right now, the guy evaluators saw is a second-division ceiling, with little conviction he gets there. Carlson has plenty of time to change that though

Craig (Ohio): Thoughts on a couple of IF prospects Tommy edman and Andy Young. Either in the 30.

Kyle Glaser: You can see for yourself when the Handbook comes out. (Spoiler: Everyone likes Tommy Edman)

Tyler (Peoria, IL): Does Dakota Hudson factor into the big league bullpen conversation this year? Do you see him as a starter or a reliever long term? Thanks for chatting

Kyle Glaser: He has a very real shot to, yes. We’ve seen the Cardinals love to bring up their pitchers in the bullpen first, so I think it’s very likely Hudson will make an appearance in there sometime this year. As far as starting, I think he has a chance but it’s not a slam dunk.

Kevin (STL): Can you please tell me about two Johnson City prospects I’m intrigued by for a long time: Brady Whalen ( switch hitter with near .200 iso paired with about 15% walk rate in that frame is intriguing) and Wadye Ynfante (Always had contact, patience, speed, and now shows power). Thanks!

Kyle Glaser: Whalen did some interesting things, but at that low of a level contact (and batting average) are pretty important, and a .221 average, even with a good walk rate and ISO, in rookie ball is a red flag. Ynfante is a little more interesting. His bat has come around really, really nicely after that was a question when he signed, he’s growing more physical and he’s smart enough to have his speed play on the bases. He’s a guy to watch closely for sure

DR (East Coast): I know he is a member of the All Name team, but can you tell us anything about JD Murders as a prospect?

Kyle Glaser: Murders does have a great name, but 31st round picks who hit .204/.264/.249 in two years at Rookie ball aren’t guys to expect much out of

Fernando (Jupiter, FL): Ehleuris Montero cracked the GCL Top 20? How does he project as a prospect going forward?

Kyle Glaser: You can dream on Montero as a power-hitting third baseman, but he is many, many years from that

Billy (Springfield, Mo): Is Jacob Schlesener a name to watch? Always been a projectavle lefty with above-average stuff

Kyle Glaser: There is no doubt Schlesener has bat-missing stuff, but guys that spend three years in Rookie ball and post walk rates of 5.8, 16.1, and 7.8 generally don’t get to the majors. Until he throws significantly more strikes, he’s an organizational arm.

Kyle Glaser: Alright everybody. That’ll about do it. Three solid hours of chat time. I enjoyed it greatly. Thanks for all your questions, and hope you all have a great week