2017 Organization Talent Rankings With Reports
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As we continue our offseason prospect rankings, we line up the minor league talent in every organization from 1-30. You can see a free list of the rankings here.
The Baseball America annual organization talent rankings reflect the total worth of each farm system’s prospects, where all players who haven’t exceeded 130 at-bats, 50 innings or 30 relief appearances in the major leagues are eligible. The rankings are a product of BA editors and the capsules have been written by John Manuel.
1. Atlanta Braves
2016 Rank: 3. 2015 Rank: 15.
How They Got Here: Atlanta turned over its front office in September 2014, eying a shift from subsistence player development to a return to the “Braves Way” of high-risk, high-reward talent. Emphasizing upside and big tools, the Braves have stockpiled hard-throwing pitchers and prioritized high schoolers in the draft. They’ve also made some astute trades, for 11 of their Top 30 Prospects were acquired in trades, including No. 1 Dansby Swanson. Atlanta has both strong depth and plenty of high-ceiling talent.
High-Ceiling Sleeper: Dominican outfielder Cristian Pache has adjustments to make offensively but has made plenty of contact thus far as a pro and has defensive tools reminiscent of a young Andruw Jones. If his offense comes along, he could be an electric player.
Breakout Candidate: Lefthander A.J. Minter has a live arm and could jump into Atlanta’s bullpen quickly. In 2016, he finished at Double-A, struck out 12.2 per nine innings and hit 98 mph with his fastball while proving he was back healthy from Tommy John surgery.
2. New York Yankees
2016 Rank: 17. 2015 Rank: 18.
How They Got Here: New York has used every avenue to assemble minor league talent. Its last two first-round picks, Blake Rutherford (No. 18 overall in 2016) and James Kaprielian (No. 16 in 2015) are its highest picks since 2005. The Yankees have remained aggressive internationally, then vaulted up the standings by trading relievers Andrew Miller and Aroldis Chapman for prospects including Gleyber Torres, Clint Frazier and Justus Sheffield.
High-Ceiling Sleeper: Outfielder Estevan Florial has all the tools to be a star, with 70 grades for his power, arm and speed. His hitting ability lags behind, so he may need more time than most to develop enough feel for hitting to get to his power.
Breakout Candidate: Righty Dillon Tate was the fourth overall pick in the 2015 draft, and the Yankees acquired him from the Rangers in the Carlos Beltran trade. His athleticism remains intact but he still needs innings to see if he can handle a starter’s workload. He had flashes in the Arizona Fall League and may yet wind up as a power reliever.
3. Houston Astros
2016 Rank: 2. 2015 Rank: 14.
How They Got Here: Houston made five top-five overall picks in the four drafts from 2012-15 and netted Carlos Correa, Alex Bregman and top position prospect Kyle Tucker—even if they whiffed on Mark Appel and didn’t sign Brady Aiken. The Astros have hit the jackpot in pro scouting, finding power righties Francis Martes and David Paulino, to go with successful late draft picks, such as Garrett Stubbs, and international signings like Teoscar Hernandez and Franklin Perez.
High-Ceiling Sleeper: Dominican outfielder Gilberto Celestino signed for $2.25 million in 2015 and has more feel for hitting than many of his similarly aged peers. His scouting report reads like that of Cubs outfielder Albert Almora as a baseball athlete with potentially premium defense in center field.
Breakout Candidate: Acquired from the Phillies in the Ken Giles deal, middle infielder Jonathan Arauz is another example of a low-level international player the Astros added as an extra trade piece. He’s a well-rounded, switch-hitting shortstop with a chance to hit for average with decent power.
4. Los Angeles Dodgers
2016 Rank: 1. 2015 Rank: 3.
How They Got Here: No other team graduated significant prospects like the Dodgers in 2016. Their class included Rookie of the Year shortstop Corey Seager and lefthander Julio Urias, last year’s top-ranked pitching prospect. And yet the Dodgers remain a top-five system, stocked with high-priced Cubans with impact tools (Yadier Alvarez and Yusniel Diaz), fourth-round pick sluggers (Cody Bellinger and Willie Calhoun) and depth from international and draft sources.
High-Ceiling Sleeper: Righthander Mitchell White vaulted into the second round of the 2016 draft with a big finish to his redshirt sophomore season. The first earned run he gives up in 2017 will be his first as a pro.
Breakout Candidate: Walker Buehler has recovered from Tommy John surgery and was buzzing the upper 90s with his fastball in instructional league. The former Vanderbilt righthander just has to show he’s healthy to make quick work of the minor leagues.
5. Chicago White Sox
2016 Rank: 23. 2015 Rank: 20.
How They Got Here: The White Sox had a bottom-five system—again—before reassessing their situation. Trading Chris Sale and Adam Eaton netted four Top 100 Prospects, starting with 2016 Minor League Player of the Year Yoan Moncada. Chicago also had two first-round picks last year in catcher Zack Collins and righty Zack Burdi, and a potential breakout in 2016 second-rounder Alec Hansen.
High-Ceiling Sleeper: Lanky lefty Bernardo Flores struggled mightily in 2016 at Southern California, throwing almost exclusively fastballs and getting pounded. His arm strength stands out (he can touch 97 mph) and has a good changeup that gives him a chance to start.
Breakout Candidate: Outfielder Alex Call’s best tool is his bat rather than his athleticism, differentiating him from most recent White Sox outfield prospects. He could move quickly after hitting .308/.394/.445 in 292 at-bats in his pro debut.
6. Philadelphia Phillies
2016 Rank: 8. 2015 Rank: 21.
How They Got Here: Two years ago, the Phillies began their rebuild in earnest with the Cole Hamels deal, which netted Top 10 Prospects Jorge Alfaro and Nick Williams. Alfaro joins top prospects J.P. Crawford and 2016 No. 1 pick Mickey Moniak to give the Phillies an enviable up-the-middle future core. The club’s consistently fruitful international program has produced the system’s best pitchers in quick-armed Sixto Sanchez and tall, lanky Franklyn Kilome.
High-Ceiling Sleeper: In a deep system that features an active international program, 2016 draftee Cole Stobbe can get lost in the shuffle. He shouldn’t. He’s an infielder with the actions to stick in the dirt, plus sound hitting instincts.
Breakout Candidate: Righty Drew Anderson touched 97 mph after working his way back from Tommy John surgery and has shown the potential for four pitches. He could be fully unleashed with his first Double-A assignment in 2017.
7. Pittsburgh Pirates
2016 Rank: 11. 2015 Rank: 7.
How They Got Here: The Pirates have a strong core of upper-level prospects close to ready to help the big league club, starting with outfielder Austin Meadows, righthander Tyler Glasnow and first baseman Josh Bell, though Bell had knee surgery just before spring training. Having had success with homegrown arms, the Bucs hope for contributions from hitters such as shortstops Kevin Newman and Cole Tucker and third basemen Ke’Bryan Hayes and Will Craig soon.
High-Ceiling Sleeper: Lefthander Braeden Ogle popped some 96 mph showings early last spring to get on the draft radar, but the Pirates followed him and committed $800,000 to the fourth-rounder to see that velocity on a more consistent basis. He will stay on a slower track initially but has what the Pirates look for in a starting-pitcher prospect.
Breakout Candidate: Lefthander Taylor Hearn, acquired in the Mark Melancon trade, was drafted four times—including once by the Pirates in 2012. They wanted him again because of his electric left arm, which has helped him flash 99 mph velocity. He’ll try to get out of Class A ball for the first time in 2017.
8. Milwaukee Brewers
2016 Rank: 9. 2015 Rank: 19.
How They Got Here: Milwaukee has enviable depth, with five to eight players who could rank as the system’s top prospect. Six of the top 10 prospects were acquired via trades, including the top three, led by outfielder Lewis Brinson. The Brewers have had more success of late with college picks, such as promising 2016 selections Corey Ray and Lucas Erceg and righthander Brandon Woodruff, an 11th-rounder in 2014.
High-Ceiling Sleeper: Lefthander Nathan Kirby was the ace of Virginia’s 2015 rotation and pitched through pain to help close out the College World Series finals win. If you forgot about him while he recovered from Tommy John surgery, know he should be ready to go at the start of the season.
Breakout Candidate: Righty Corbin Burnes, a 2016 fourth-round pick, faded as the draft approached last year in his first year as a full-time starter. He has a chance to be a three-pitch starter and also has the velocity (up to 97 mph) to be an impact reliever if the Brewers choose that route.
9. San Diego Padres
2016 Rank: 25. 2015 Rank: 24.
How They Got Here: San Diego started tearing down—again—in 2016 after general manager A.J. Preller’s first buildup didn’t pan out. Trading the likes of James Shields, Matt Kemp, Craig Kimbrel and Drew Pomeranz brought in several key prospects such as righthander Anderson Espinoza and outfielder Manuel Margot. Preller, as expected, has gone all-in on international talent after filling that role in Texas, bringing in players both in trades (Fernando Tatis Jr.) and in signings such as Cuban lefty Adrian Morejon.
High-Ceiling Sleeper: Righthander Mason Thompson was the ace of USA Baseball’s 15U team in 2013, a roster that also featured Mickey Moniak. He had Tommy John surgery in March 2015 but had an impressive pro debut in the Rookie-level Arizona League in 2016, showing the potential for a three- or four-pitch mix with a tantalizing curveball.
Breakout Candidate: In a system of high-risk, high-reward international signees, lefty Joey Lucchesi stands out for his polish and ability to miss bats. He has plus control and a chance for above-average command of three pitches that all grade out as average if not better.
10. Colorado Rockies
2016 Rank: 6. 2015 Rank: 8.
How They Got Here: The Rockies aren’t going to lure free-agent pitchers to Denver, so they have to draft, sign and trade for them, and they’ve assembled a solid core from first-rounders Riley Pint and Kyle Freeland to trade pickups Jeff Hoffman and German Marquez. Colorado’s underrated international program may produce more gems soon as outfielder Raimel Tapia and righthander Antonio Senzatela close in on the big leagues.
High-Ceiling Sleeper: Third baseman Tyler Nevin has a different body and different tools than his father, ex-big leaguer Phil Nevin. He missed virtually all of 2016 with a hamstring injury but has the athleticism to be an above-average defender at third base. Like all young hitters, he needs at-bats.
Breakout Candidate: Righty David Hill missed much of 2016 after having surgery for thoracic outlet syndrome. He has shown a live arm when healthy while also throwing quality strikes. He may be challenged significantly with a promotion to high Class A Lancaster.
11. Tampa Bay Rays
2016 Rank: 13. 2015 Rank: 12.
How They Got Here: Righthander Brent Honeywell and first baseman Casey Gillaspie are close to ending a draft dry patch that produced few assets from 2008-16—until Blake Snell’s promising rookie season. Trade pickups such as Willy Adames, a shortstop and the club’s top prospect, righthanders Jose De Leon and Chih-Wei Hu and outfielder Justin Williams are more typical of recent Rays’ success stories.
High-Ceiling Sleeper: Righthander Zack Trageton was a late-bloomer prior to the 2016 draft, when he pushed his fastball to 94 mph and showed feel for a curve and changeup. He’s physical enough to add velocity but like most Rays pitchers will be moved slowly.
Breakout Candidate: Third baseman Kevin Padlo, acquired from the Rockies, has been almost too passive at the plate. A bit more aggressiveness at high Class A in 2017 would help him take greater advantage of his power. His all-around athleticism makes him fit as a profile third baseman.
12. St. Louis Cardinals
2016 Rank: 14. 2015 Rank: 16.
How They Got Here: The system took a short-term hit when top prospect Alex Reyes required Tommy John surgery as camp opened. St. Louis has aggressively hit the gas on its international efforts, seeking to spend more and get more athletic. That’s led to a system of younger, less-polished players than usual. There’s still room for fast-moving college picks such as righty Luke Weaver and outfielder Harrison Bader.
High-Ceiling Sleeper: Bryce Denton has moved slowly but made significant strikes at Rookie-level Johnson City in 2016. He has raw power and has taken to third base, where he will have to keep proving himself defensively.
Breakout Candidate: Incorrectly listed at 5-foot-8, Venezuelan righthander Alvaro Seijas has grown to about 6-foot-2, and the 18-year-old was one of the best arms in the Rookie-level Gulf Coast League last year. His 91-95 mph fastball and curveball have plus potential.
13. Cincinnati Reds
2016 Rank: 12. 2015 Rank: 17.
How They Got Here: Cincinnati’s rebuilding effort has gained momentum with trades, even though many of them weren’t as fruitful as hoped in bringing back prospect talent. Several of their first-round picks, from Robert Stephenson (2011) through Tyler Stephenson (2015), backed up or had modest progress in 2016. Still, the Reds have hit on some later picks, giving their system depth. The 2016 draft could prove key with an influx of potential hitters, led by Nick Senzel and Taylor Trammell.
High-Ceiling Sleeper: Righthander Ariel Hernandez has one of the best curveballs in the minors. He throws it with depth and power and complements it with a fastball that can reach 100 mph and sits 95-97. Not bad for a minor league Rule 5 pick.
Breakout Candidate: A former high school catcher, second baseman Shed Long has hit his way out of Class A, and he’s got pop. In an offensive era for second basemen, he fits the profile.
14. Boston Red Sox
2016 Rank: 4. 2015 Rank: 2.
How They Got Here: Trades—though unlike other clubs, trade activity forced Boston down the ranking. Seven of the first 43 players on the Top 100 Prospects originally signed with the Red Sox, but they traded away Yoan Moncada, Anderson Espinoza, Manuel Margot and Michael Kopech. Boston still has some star power (Andrew Benintendi, Rafael Devers) but lacks the depth of the systems ranked ahead of them.
High-Ceiling Sleeper: Second baseman Josh Tobias, acquired from the Phillies in the Clay Buchholz deal, has a strong hitting track record, interrupted only by some injuries at Florida. He’s versatile and a solid athlete who may have enough pop to be an everyday player.
Breakout Candidate: Righthander Steve Nogosek starred for USA Baseball’s Collegiate National Team in 2015 and has a plus slider that could help him move quickly. His long arm action may preclude command, but his fastball reaches 96 mph, so it doesn’t require precision.
15. New York Mets
2016 Rank: 15. 2015 Rank: 5.
How They Got Here: New York has graduated plenty of impact talent the last few years and is close to seeing big league dividends from a trio of prep first-round selections: 2011 outfielder Brandon Nimmo, 2012 shortstop Gavin Cecchini and newly svelte first baseman Dominic Smith. All three could work their way into larger roles, as could righthander Robert Gsellman.
High-Ceiling Sleeper: Shortstop Andres Gimenez ranked No. 2 in the 2015 international class, but he fits the sleeper category because the Mets left him in the Dominican Summer League in 2016. He’s ready for his U.S. closeup in 2017 and could emerge as one of the Mets’ top prospects with his bat speed, lefthanded hitting ability and plus arm.
Breakout Candidate: Righthander Corey Taylor just keeps performing. He led Division I with a 0.31 ERA in 2015 at Texas Tech, and he’s recorded a 1.77 mark as a pro in 71 innings. He’s stocky but strong and throws plenty of strikes with a heavy, mid-90s fastball that generates tons of groundballs, making him a candidate to move quickly.
16. Chicago Cubs
2016 Rank: 20. 2015 Rank: 1.
How They Got Here: If only the Cubs hadn’t graduated all that young impact talent to the major leagues—and traded shortstop Gleyber Torres—to help win their first World Series championship in 108 years, maybe their system would rank higher. They’ll have to settle for a solid crop of hitters if they need trade fodder. Chicago’s potential impact arms are exciting but few have reached full-season ball yet.
High-Ceiling Sleeper: Righthander Bailey Clark missed instructional league to go back to Duke and work toward finishing his degree. His first spring training will help determine if the Cubs work his lively mid-90s fastball in a relief role or if he gets a chance to start in the crowded lower levels of the system.
Breakout Candidate: Former Oklahoma State righty Thomas Hatch was the Cubs’ first draft pick in 2016 and has a chance to be one of their top pitching prospects.
17. Oakland Athletics
2016 Rank: 18. 2015 Rank: 23.
How They Got Here: Oakland has an interesting blend of infielders with offensive potential who could help a flailing big league offense, starting with shortstop Franklin Barreto, who was the main piece of the Josh Donaldson trade, and slugging third baseman Matt Chapman. Oakland landed lefty A.J. Puk, projected to go No. 1 in the 2016 draft, with the sixth pick, leading an intriguing college-heavy class that could boost the system further.
High-Ceiling Sleeper: Righthander Heath Fillmyer didn’t dominate in 2016, but he has performed better level by level. He’ll return to Double-A in 2017 after finishing the season there, and his athleticism should allow him to command his heavy fastball and average curve and changeup.
Breakout Candidate: Catcher Sean Murphy has 70-grade arm strength behind the plate and has plus raw power that plays to all fields. Injuries slowed him in 2016 both in college and after signing, but he has a chance to move quickly for a catcher.
18. Cleveland Indians
2016 Rank: 16. 2015 Rank: 22.
How They Got Here: Cleveland traded a pair of first-round picks to get Andrew Miller from the Yankees, thinning the system’s upper-level talent. It would look worse had they traded switch-hitting catcher Francisco Mejia, its top prospect, to the Brewers in a deal Jonathan Lucroy rejected. This ranking could jump up with progress from young arms such as Triston McKenzie and Brady Aiken and high-risk, high-reward 2016 draftees such as Will Benson and Nolan Jones.
High-Ceiling Sleeper: At 6-foot-7, righthander Micah Miniard is still filling out physically, and his size helps him impact tough angle on his pitches. Improved strength would help him get the innings he needs to pitch a full season in 2017.
Breakout Candidate: Second baseman Mark Mathias has one of the more polished bats in the organization and has stayed healthy as a pro, after a shoulder injury affected him in 2015, his draft year. He’s poised to help in the majors soon, possibly as a multi-position utility option.
19. Washington Nationals
2016 Rank: 5. 2015 Rank: 9.
How They Got Here: Washington was poised to rank highly when it had two 2016 first-round picks and two hard-throwing, close-to-the-majors arms in Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo Lopez. Then Washington traded them, along with first-round righty Dane Dunning, to the White Sox for Adam Eaton, sapping the system of three of its best arms. The Nats still have one of the minors’ most exciting talents in outfielder Victor Robles, a product of their fruitful international program.
High-Ceiling Sleeper: Lefthander Jesus Luzardo fits the Nationals template as a Tommy John surgery alumnus who fell in the draft, and he would have gone out much higher had he been healthy. He is expected to be ready for Rookie ball in June.
Breakout Candidate: Catcher Jakson Reetz still has dynamic tools and has started to get the development time to bring out his two-way potential. He’s athletic and has a chance to hit for solid power and catch-and-throw well behind the plate.
20. Toronto Blue Jays
2016 Rank: 24. 2015 Rank: 10.
How They Got Here: Former general manager Alex Anthopoulos helped the Blue Jays break a 21-year playoff drought with bold moves for players such as Josh Donaldson and David Price that drained the system of talent. While the organization’s top hitting (Anthony Alford) and pitching (Conner Greene) had iffy 2016 seasons, Toronto had a strong developmental year on the farm otherwise and has Vladimir Guerrero Jr. poised to break out in his first try at full-season ball.
High-Ceiling Sleeper: Venezuelan shortstop Kevin Vicuna has started making strength gains to give him a chance offensively, and his defense has a chance to be plus at a key defensive spot.
Breakout Candidate: Josh Palacios runs, hits for average, controls the strike zone and has a chance to stick in center field. The 2016 fourth-rounder could move quickly, especially if his power develops.
21. Minnesota Twins
2016 Rank: 10. 2015 Rank: 4.
How They Got Here: Minnesota graduated as many prospects to the majors as any team in 2016, from outfielders Byron Buxton and Max Kepler to righty Jose Berrios to second baseman Jorge Polanco. That helped drop the farm ranking, and the Twins are still waiting for more starting pitchers such as Stephen Gonsalves, Tyler Jay and Kohl Stewart to break though at the upper levels. Five picks in the first three rounds of the 2016 draft (they chose four high school hitters) helped re-stock the lower levels.
High-Ceiling Sleeper: A system in need of hard-throwing starters will wait on righty Griffin Jax, whose Air Force commitment (and May graduation) will push his 2017 start back to the summer. He hit 96 mph and has the requisite athleticism to make improvements quickly.
Breakout Candidate: Akil Baddoo already has grown an inch and added 20 pounds of good weight since being drafted last summer. He may grow out of center field but could develop into a potent corner bat.
22. Texas Rangers
2016 Rank: 7. 2015 Rank: 11.
How They Got Here: Texas would rank higher but has traded aggressively for big leaguers such as Cole Hamels and Jonathan Lucroy, emptying the top of the farm system. Four of the Rangers’ last six first-round picks are now in other organizations. Texas keeps churning out impressive international talent, with Latin American signees ranking as the system’s top three prospects. A prep-heavy approach in recent drafts combined with the international focus has left most of the system’s impact talent at its lower levels.
High-Ceiling Sleeper: Righty Tyler Ferguson once earned a spot in Vanderbilt’s weekend rotation before losing his feel for the strike zone. He has ideal size and arm strength but needs to add polish to his delivery to improve his well below-average command.
Breakout Candidate: Righty Connor Sadzeck stayed healthy in 2016 and was a steady presence in the Double-A Frisco rotation. He hit 101 mph as a starter and may wind up in relief with his extreme velocity.
23. Seattle Mariners
2016 Rank: 28. 2015 Rank: 25.
How They Got Here: General manager Jerry Dipoto has been as busy as any front-office executive, turning over much of the team’s 40-man roster and using prospects acquired under the previous administration, such as 2014 first-rounder Alex Jackson, as trade pieces. The Mariners’ focus in recent drafts on acquiring righthanded power has landed the club’s top two prospects, outfielders Kyle Lewis and Tyler O’Neill, but the system’s pitching depth is lacking and took another hit when emerging Luiz Gohara was traded to the Braves for outfielder Mallex Smith and reliever Shae Simmons. Smith was then traded to the Rays along with lefthander Ryan Yarbrough and shortstop Carlos Vargas to acquire Drew Smyly, thinning the depth further.
High-Ceiling Sleeper: Venezuelan outfielder Brayan Hernandez signed for $1.85 million in 2014 but has needed time. He’s still raw offensively and still has impressive physical ability, with plus speed, arm strength and defensive potential.
Breakout Candidate: For a team hoping to compete, reliever Thyago Vieira could be a factor. The Brazilian righty consistently hits 100 mph in a relief role.
24. San Francisco Giants
2016 Rank: 19. 2015 Rank: 27.
How They Got Here: The Giants have developed impact regulars consistently for the past decade, but the current state of the system features depth more than potential stars. A strong season by 2014 first-rounder Tyler Beede helped, as did positive full-season debuts for a slew of 2015 college draftees such as first baseman Chris Shaw and outfielder Steven Duggar. Typical of the system, strike-throwing lefty Ty Blach—ready but with a low ceiling—looks ready to help in 2017.
High-Ceiling Sleeper: Outfielder Heath Quinn finished second in Division I in home runs in 2016 and showed plus power in his pro debut as well. Making consistent contact against pro arms tops his to-do list in his first full pro season.
Breakout Candidate: While outfielder Austin Slater is ticketed for Triple-A, he could be ready to sub for Mac Williamson if he founders in left field or Hunter Pence if gets hurt again. The former Stanford product could hit his way into a corner spot.
25. Detroit Tigers
2016 Rank: 26. 2015 Rank: 30.
How They Got Here: The Tigers draft as college-heavy as any team, with most of their high-ceiling athletes coming from their strong international program. They are still digging out from not having a first-round pick from 2010-12. Dealing prospects such as Willy Adames has sapped the club’s depth, though a pitcher-heavy 2016 draft class, led by top prospect Matt Manning, shows promise.
High-Ceiling Sleeper: Detroit has had impressive Venezuelan scouting finds in the last decade and hope lefty Cristhian Tortosa can be another. He’s a long way away with a listed 6-foot-4, 170-pound frame, but he has a loose arm that flashes power stuff.
Breakout Candidate: Righty Sandy Baez had some success at low Class A in 2016, and as a 23-year-old it’s time to get moving. A member of the 40-man roster, he has a fastball that has reached 100 mph and an excellent changeup, a combination that augurs well for a future relief role.
26. Kansas City Royals
2016 Rank: 21. 2015 Rank: 13.
How They Got Here: Kansas City went all-in while winning back-to-back American League pennants and the 2015 World Series. As a result of deals that landed key contributors such as James Shields, Johnny Cueto and Ben Zobrist, the Royals emptied their system of most of their top pitching prospects. Early returns on first-round prep arms such as Ashe Russell, Nolan Watson and Foster Griffin have been below expectations, while 2011 first-rounder Bubba Starling is still trending in the wrong direction.
High-Ceiling Sleeper: The Royals have two catchers from Rookie ball in 2016 who merit mention, with Sebastian Rivero the better athlete and defender who likely will need more time to develop his bat. Meibrys Viloria, who hit .376 in the Pioneer League, should see full-season ball first.
Breakout Candidate: Shortstop Nicky Lopez should move quickly. He’s a reliable defender with a polished approach and some pop in his lefthanded bat.
27. Baltimore Orioles
2016 Rank: 27. 2015 Rank: 29.
How They Got Here: Baltimore’s system has worked, with the big club averaging 89 wins per season the last five years with homegrown stars such as Manny Machado, Jonathan Schoop and Zack Britton playing key roles. The O’s hope catcher Chance Sisco is the next one. The system gets a shot in the arm from a solid, college-oriented 2016 draft class that got off to a good start, and there’s always hope for wild-card Hunter Harvey to return from injuries like Dylan Bundy did.
High-Ceiling Sleeper: Center fielder Cedric Mullins, headed for high Class A, lacks size but has enough pop to keep pitchers honest and enough speed to help his team with steals and defense.
Breakout Candidate: Righty Gabriel Ynoa, acquired up in a cash deal from the Mets, is a typical Dan Duquette pickup who may not have a high ceiling but can help the margins of a roster. Ynoa has the command to help the Orioles pad out their rotation or bullpen in 2017.
28. Arizona Diamondbacks
2016 Rank: 22. 2015 Rank: 6.
How They Got Here: Even former general manager Dave Stewart has admitted that if he trusted his instincts, he wouldn’t have traded 2015 No. 1 pick Dansby Swanson. That bird has flown, and the D-backs’ empty system is what is left from the reign of Stewart and his former boss, Tony La Russa. The D-backs some draft and development success stories, and have made some nice trade pickups, such as top prospect Anthony Banda and Domingo Leyba, but the system is very thin at the lower levels.
High-Ceiling Sleeper: Lefthander Mack Lemieux was not high profile before signing but has body control and a projectable frame to go with a feel for his offspeed stuff.
Breakout Candidate: Lefthander Jared Miller shined in the Arizona Fall League as a reliever, and if he can keep his jumbo 6-foot-7, 240-pound frame in sync, he should help Arizona’s bullpen in 2017.
29. Los Angeles Angels
2016 Rank: 30. 2015 Rank: 28.
How They Got Here: General manager Billy Eppler is trying to reshape the big league roster while re-stocking the minors, and it’s not going to be easy. New scouting director Matt Swanson will try to modernize the scouting department with more data while Eppler tries to find power arms, such as trade reclamation project Alex Meyer, to add to high-ceiling bats in outfielder Jahmai Jones and first baseman Matt Thaiss.
High-Ceiling Sleeper: Scouts have a long dossier on outfielder Brennon Lund, a plus runner who had an impressive season in 2016 with the bat both at Brigham Young and as a pro. He profiles as a center field and leadoff type if he keeps hitting.
Breakout Candidate: Already ranked in the Top 10 Prospects, righty Keynan Middleton shifted to the bullpen last year and became the now-typical setup option with a fastball that reaches 100 mph. He’s the most likely homegrown Angel to graduate to the big league roster in 2017.
30. Miami Marlins
2016 Rank: 29. 2015 Rank: 26.
How They Got Here: Having shifted into win-now mode, the franchise has traded prospects aggressively, sapping whatever depth it still had. Trading Francis Martes as a throw-in to the Astros in the Jarred Cosart deal has proved a colossal blunder. The 2017 season will be huge to see if pitching guru Jim Benedict can coax some greatness out of highly drafted Tyler Kolek (No. 2 overall in 2014) and Braxton Garrett (No. 7 in 2016).
High-Ceiling Sleeper: Righthander Andy Beltre is a lottery ticket as an oft-injured reliever who has hit 100 mph and is ready for Double-A. A stretch of decent health could vault him to Miami’s power bullpen quickly.
Breakout Candidate: The Marlins keep waiting on outfielder Isael Soto to break through with his plus raw power, though high Class A Jupiter, his next assignment, is a notorious pitcher’s park. Soto remains the club’s best bet for a corner-outfield bat.
Editor’s Note: Bernardo Flores’ name was corrected after the post was published.
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