2017 New York Mets Top 10 Prospects

Chat it up: Mets Top 10 Prospects Chat with Matt Eddy

Knowledge is Power: Mets Top 10 Insider

Want More? Complete Top 10 Prospects Rankings

Go 30 deep: Order the 2017 Prospect Handbook!

TOP 10 PROSPECTS
1. Amed Rosario, ss
2. Dominic Smith, 1b
3. Justin Dunn, rhp
4. Desmond Lindsay, of
5. Brandon Nimmo, of
6. Gavin Cecchini, 2b/ss
7. Robert Gsellman, rhp
8. Thomas Szapucki, lhp
9. Gabriel Ynoa, rhp
10. Tomas Nido, c

Giants ace Madison Bumgarner ended the Mets’ season with a shutout in the National League Wild Card Game, but even the disappointing finish to 2016 did not obscure a successful season for New York. The Mets, one year after they advanced to the World Series, qualified for the postseason in consecutive years for just the second time in franchise history.

Prior to 2015 they hadn’t even had a winning season since 2008 or a playoff berth since 2006.

While the Mets failed to defend their NL pennant in 2016, they overcame long odds to even be one win away from competing in a Division Series. They finished play on Aug. 19 with a 60-62 record before winning 27 times in their final 40 games to claim the top wild card, narrowly edging the Giants and Cardinals.

Before Bumgarner vanquished them, the Mets contended with an equally formidable foe: the disabled list. New York played the majority of the season without three position players from its 2015 World Series roster—third baseman David Wright, first baseman Lucas Duda and center fielder Juan Lagares. When their farm system couldn’t fill in the cracks, the Mets turned to freely available players Jose Reyes and James Loney to replace Wright and Duda—though 25-year-old Wilmer Flores enjoyed a career year as an infield patch before suffering a wrist injury of his own.

The most debilitating injuries struck the Mets’ rotation. Three of the four starters the Mets leaned on in the 2015 postseason finished the year on the DL. Righthander Matt Harvey succumbed to thoracic outlet surgery in July. Rookie lefthander Steven Matz made his last start on Aug. 14, then later had surgery to remove bone chips from his elbow. The most deadly blow rained in September, when ace righthander Jacob deGrom had elbow surgery to reposition the ulnar nerve in his right elbow.

The Mets had better luck replacing lost innings, and even with myriad injuries to the pitching staff still ranked third in the NL with a 3.58 ERA. Rookie righthanders Robert Gsellman and Seth Lugo, along with second-year righty Logan Verrett, combined to make 27 starts. While Verrett fizzled (5.20 ERA in 92 innings), Gsellman (the system’s top big league-ready arm) and Lugo (who recorded the highest-spin curveball of the MLB Statcast era) positioned themselves for larger roles in 2017.

All three righthanders are products of the 2011 draft, the first under general manager Sandy Alderson as the Mets embarked on a rebuild. That same draft yielded first-round outfielder Brandon Nimmo, who hit .352 at Triple-A Las Vegas and made his big league debut, and supplemental first-round righthander Michael Fulmer, whom the Mets traded to the Tigers in 2015 for Yoenis Cespedes. Fulmer emerged as the 2016 American League Rookie of the Year for Detroit.

The Mets emphasized high school players with their top picks in the first few drafts under Alderson, selecting players like Nimmo and Fulmer in 2011, shortstop Gavin Cecchini in 2012, first baseman Dominic Smith in 2013 and outfielder Desmond Lindsay in 2015. Nimmo, Cecchini and Smith will integrate into the major league lineup in 2107 and 2018, where they will join 2014 first-round outfielder Michael Conforto.

New York deviated from its prep-heavy draft strategy in 2016—their first without scouting and player development head Paul DePodesta, who left to work for the NFL’s Cleveland Browns—to take Boston College righthander Justin Dunn, Connecticut lefthander Anthony Kay and Florida first baseman Pete Alonso in the first and second rounds.

Dunn and Alonso played well at short-season Brooklyn, while Kay did not pitch and ultimately had Tommy John surgery. Regardless, that trio could advance quickly in a system that skews toward prospects signed as high school players or international free agents, demographics that pertain to every member of the Top 10 Prospects except for Dunn.

Though the organization’s domestic winning percentage has fallen from .568 in 2014 (No.1 in baseball) to .532 in 2015 (No. 7) to .480 in 2016 (No. 20), the Mets had several top prospects take steps forward this season. Notably, shortstop Amed Rosario and first baseman Dominic Smith both appeared in the Futures Game and finished the year at Double-A Binghamton.

1. Amed Rosario, ss |

SCOUTING GRADES

Batting: 60.

Power: 45.

Speed: 60.

Defense: 70.

Arm: 60.

Based on 20-80 scouting scale—where 50 represents major league average—and future projection rather than present tools.

Born: Nov. 20, 1995. B-T: R-R. Ht.: 6-2. Wt.: 190. Signed: Dominican Republic, 2012. Signed by: Chris Becerra/Gerardo Cabrera.

Background: Sandy Alderson took the reins as Mets general manager after the 2010 season and promoted Chris Becerra to international scouting director in 2012. Becerra had previously worked as an area scout in Southern California—he recommended Robert Gsellman for the 2011 draft—and in his new role focused on Rosario as his first major acquisition. The Mets signed the Dominican shortstop for $1.75 million on July 2, 2012, and that bonus amount stands as a franchise record for an international amateur. Rosario, who was teammates with Rangers right fielder Nomar Mazara as a youth in Santo Domingo, graduated from high school before turning pro. His father, who was a lawyer and a judge, helped steer the signing process. Rosario wowed the Mets at instructional league after signing and made his pro debut at Rookie-level Kingsport in 2013, ranking as the No. 1 prospect in Appalachian League at age 17. After ranking as the top position prospect in the short-season New York-Penn League in 2014, he shot up to high Class A St. Lucie in 2015 and opened 2016 back there before earning a promotion to Double-A.

Scouting Report: Tall and lean, Rosario began to fill out his frame and swing the bat with more authority in 2016. He also improved his pitch selectivity and bat-to-ball skills, resulting a career-best .324 average and walk rate of 7.6 percent across high Class and Double-A, while his .833 OPS ranked fourth among all minor league shortstops. His bat plays best when he lets the ball travel and uses his hands, strong wrists and plus bat speed to drive the ball to all fields. Capable of turning on the ball for occasional pull power, Rosario set a new personal standard with five home runs and .135 isolated slugging percentage in 2016. While his strikeout rate crept into dangerous territory at Double-A, Rosario has all the tools to be a plus hitter with possibly fringe-average power. Plus speed and strong instincts will help him take extra bases and steal perhaps 20 bags per season. The best athlete in the Mets system, Rosario stands out most for his glove work. Managers in both the Florida State and Eastern leagues recognized him as the best defensive shortstop in those leagues in 2016, and he has the easy plus range and arm strength to profile as a true impact defender. He will improve his throwing accuracy with experience, but scouts rave about his hands, live body and infield actions.

The Future: Rosario has the potential to be an all-star shortstop with Gold Glove potential who can bat near the top of a lineup. He might begin 2017 back at Binghamton to refine his plate discipline, but he could push his way into the big league picture later in the season. The Mets have Asdrubal Cabrera under contract through 2017, meaning Rosario could be the organization’s full-time shortstop at some point in 2018.

2016 Club	AVG	OBP	SLG	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB
St. Lucie (Hi A)	.309	.359	.442	265	27	82	10	8	3	40	21	36	13
Binghamton (AA)	.341	.392	.481	214	38	73	14	5	2	31	19	51	6

2. Dominic Smith, 1b

Born: June 15, 1995. B-T: L-L. Ht.: 6-0. Wt.: 250. Drafted: HS—Gardena, Calif., 2013 (1st round). Signed by: Drew Toussaint.

Background: The 11th overall pick in the 2013 draft, Smith hit only one home run in his full-season debut at low Class A Savannah in 2014. He corrected course in 2015 with a Florida State League MVP season at high Class A St. Lucie and then in 2016 at Double-A Binghamton, where ranked third in the Eastern League in hits (146) and RBIs (91).

Scouting Report: Smith strongly resembles the player he was on draft day in that he is a natural hitter—the best in the system—with strong defensive ability at first base. He hit .300 for a second straight season in 2016 while establishing career-best marks for strikeout rate (13.6 percent), home runs (14) and isolated slugging percentage (.156). Smith hit all but four of his homers in the first half, but his average surged to .345 in the second after he adjusted his swing to keep his front hip closed, his bat path direct and his hands down through the ball. He began to drive the ball consistently in 2016 and shows average power to go with a plus hit tool. He is listed at 250 pounds and doesn’t run well, but is nimble around first base with a quick first step and sure hands to save his infielders errors.

The Future: Smith will head to Triple-A Las Vegas in 2017, and by the time he is big league ready will have no one blocking his path in New York.

2016 Club	AVG	OBP	SLG	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB
Binghamton (AA)	.302	.367	.457	484	64	146	29	2	14	91	50	74	2

3. Justin Dunn, rhp |

Born: Sept. 22, 1995. B-T: R-R. Ht.: 6-2. Wt.: 185. Drafted: Boston College, 2016 (1st round). Signed by: Michael Pesce.

Background: Dunn worked primarily as a reliever at Boston College—and in the 2015 Cape Cod League—and remained in that role until two months before the 2016 draft. Though he made just eight starts as a junior, he generated first-round buzz based on his impressive arm speed and athletic delivery. The Mets selected Dunn, a Long Island native, 19th overall and signed him for slot value of $2,378,800.

Scouting Report: No first-round college righthander has moved from the bullpen to rotation in the midst of his draft-eligible season in recent draft history. Dunn, however, showed the arsenal and results to warrant first-round selection. He already has the best fastball and slider in the Mets system, using his primary weapons to strike out 10.5 per nine innings in his pro debut at short-season Brooklyn. He generates mid-90s velocity and good life on his fastball—which touched 98 mph—with a loose arm and fluid motion. His mid-80s slider already grades as above-average and should mature into a plus pitch with tight spin and late vertical break. He will need to develop his below-average curveball and changeup to give lefthanders different looks. Though Dunn is athletic, he has a lean frame and is not as physical as many starting pitchers.

The Future: With two projected plus pitches, Dunn could be a No. 2 or 3 starter, though some scouts project him to the bullpen. He should spend time at both Class A levels in 2017.

2016 Club	W	L	ERA	G	GS	IP	H	HR	BB	SO	AVG
Brooklyn (SS)	1	1	1.50	11	8	30	25	1	10	35	.227

4. Desmond Lindsay, of |

Born: Jan. 15, 1997. B-T: R-R. Ht.: 6-0. Wt.: 200. Drafted: HS—Sarasota, Fla., 2015 (2nd round). Signed by: Cesar Aranguren.

Background: Lindsay fell to the No. 53 overall in the 2015 draft because he missed virtually all of his senior year with a hamstring injury, but he intrigued the Mets with his power-speed potential and feel to hit. He strained the same hamstring in 2016, limiting him to just 32 tantalizing games at short-season Brooklyn.

Scouting Report: A twitchy athlete, Lindsay is naturally muscled and already physically mature as a teenager. With plus bat speed and an all-fields approach, he has the chance to grade as a plus hitter with above-average power. He walked nearly as often as he struck out in the New York-Penn League and takes disciplined at-bats, which helps him get to plus raw power to his pull side. A plus runner, Lindsay still looks tentative in the field and on the bases because of his injury history. A third baseman in high school, he has work to do to become average in center field. He has improved his jumps with experience and his throwing by lengthening his arm stroke. The long rehab periods and daily pre-game work have taught Lindsay self-discipline and have prepared him mentally to play every day.

The Future: Lindsay has true five-tool potential if he improves his outfield play and regains confidence in his twice-injured hamstring. Low Class A Columbia will be his next step.

2016 Club	AVG	OBP	SLG	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB
GCL Mets (R)	.364	.563	.455	11	3	4	1	0	0	0	5	5	0
Brooklyn (SS)	.297	.418	.450	111	18	33	5	0	4	17	20	26	3

5. Brandon Nimmo, of |

Born: March 23, 1993. B-T: L-R. Ht.: 6-3. Wt.: 205. Drafted: HS—Cheyenne, Wyo., 2011 (1st round). Signed by: Jim Reeves.

Background: The first and only high school first-rounder from the state of Wyoming, Nimmo made incremental gains through his first five pro seasons before enjoying a career year at Triple-A Las Vegas in 2016. He led the Pacific Coast League with a .423 on-base percentage, finished second with a .352 average and third with a .964 OPS. He made his big league debut in June 2016 and received three separate callups.

Scouting Report: With the best strike-zone judgment in the Mets system, Nimmo has built a career .389 on-base percentage in the minors, and in 2016 established career-best marks for strikeout rate (16.4 percent), home runs (11) and isolated slugging percentage (.189). He works deep counts, takes walks and hits the ball where it’s pitched, making him a solid-average hitter with average power. With a muscular 6-foot-3 frame, Nimmo shows plus raw power in batting practice and probably could hit more home runs if he hunted fastballs early in counts. An average runner, he is no better than average defensively in center field and probably will settle on an outfield corner with his near-average arm. He won’t be a stolen-base threat, though he runs the bases intelligently. Scouts love his makeup, and his infectious personality is evident by his wide smile.

The Future: Nimmo possesses all-around ability and projects as a table-setting corner outfielder. He is ready for a larger big league role in 2017.

2016 Club	AVG	OBP	SLG	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB
Las Vegas (AAA)	.352	.423	.541	392	72	138	25	8	11	61	46	73	7
New York (MLB)	.274	.338	.329	73	12	20	1	0	1	6	6	20	0

6. Gavin Cecchini, ss/2b

Born: Dec. 22, 1993. B-T: R-R. Ht.: 6-2. Wt.: 200. Drafted: HS—Lake Charles, La., 2012 (1st round). Signed by: Tommy Jackson.

Background: The 12th overall pick in 2012, Cecchini missed time with injuries early in his career before putting things together. He blended contact skills with a strong batting eye to hit .325 at Triple-A Las Vegas in 2016 and ranked third in the Pacific Coast League batting race. He earned a September callup and then participated in the Arizona Fall League for a second straight year.

Scouting Report: Cecchini has hit .321 at Double-A and Triple-A in nearly 900 at-bats, experiencing more success after adding muscle mass and toning down his leg kick to catch up with velocity. His swing is geared to produce line drives and hard ground balls, and though he has below-average power, he can drive the left-center field gap when he works the count to his favor. He ranks consistently as one of the most difficult batters to strike out in his league. A fringy runner, he hardly ever attempts to steal. Cecchini lacks great range or fluidity at shortstop and also lacks throwing accuracy from his average arm. All that contributed to him leading his league in errors by a shortstop in both 2015 and 2016.

The Future: Cecchini should see more time at second base in 2017 as he prepares to make the position part of his job description, either as a starter or a utility infielder. A return to Triple-A is probable.

2016 Club	AVG	OBP	SLG	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB
Las Vegas (AAA)	.325	.390	.448	446	71	145	27	2	8	55	48	55	4
New York (MLB)	.333	.429	.667	6	2	2	2	0	0	2	0	2	0

7. Robert Gsellman, rhp

Born: July 18, 1993. B-T: R-R. Ht.: 6-4. Wt.: 205. Drafted: HS—Los Angeles, 2011 (13th round). Signed by: Chris Becerra.

Background: Gsellman starred in both baseball and basketball in high school, and his natural athleticism and desire to learn made him a complete pitcher as a pro. He spent three years in short-season before emerging as a prospect in 2014 and breaking out in 2015, which he finished at Double-A Binghamton. He missed about a month with a quad injury at Triple-A Las Vegas in 2016 but returned in July and made his big league debut on Aug. 23, making seven effective starts for the injury-depleted Mets.

Scouting Report: An extreme groundball pitcher, Gsellman pitches at 93 mph and tops out at 96 with a fastball featuring plus sink. He operates with a groundball pitcher’s mentality by throwing strike one and then compelling the batter to put his pitch in play. Gsellman’s fastball is so live it generates swings and misses, while the improved quality of his secondary stuff led to a career-best strikeout rate of 7.3 per nine innings in 2016. His above-average curveball functions as an out pitch at 80-82 mph when located down in the zone. He improved his high-80s changeup to above-average by relaxing his grip, and focused on making his fringe high-80s slider a groundball pitch by staying on top to create late vertical break. He throws plenty of strikes but needs to command the ball to the edges of the zone better.

The Future: Gsellman impressed scouts during his big league debut—they see him as a No. 4 starter—and should be ready for a larger role in 2017.

2016 Club	W	L	ERA	G	GS	IP	H	HR	BB	SO	AVG
Binghamton (AA)	3	4	2.71	11	11	66	57	2	15	48	.233
Las Vegas (AAA)	1	5	5.73	9	9	49	56	8	16	40	.286
New York (MLB)	4	2	2.42	8	7	45	42	1	15	42	.258

8. Thomas Szapucki, lhp |

Born: June 12, 1996. B-T: R-L. Ht.: 6-2. Wt.: 205. Drafted: HS—Palm Beach Gardens, Fla., 2015 (5th round). Signed by: Cesar Aranguren.

Background: The Mets sacrificed their first-round pick in 2015 when they signed Michael Cuddyer, but still identified a pair of top prospects in Florida preps Desmond Lindsay (second round) and Szapucki (fifth). After a brief pro debut in 2015, Szapucki raised his arm slot closer to three-quarters at instructional league, granting him better fastball control and more life on his secondary pitches. In 2016 he led all short-season pitchers with 14.9 strikeouts per nine innings, while recording a 1.38 ERA in nine starts between Rookie-level Kingsport and short-season Brooklyn.

Scouting Report: Szapucki throws the best curveball in the Mets system—it’s a mid-70s pitch with plus top-to-bottom action—but his slider might be even better. The pitch receives plus grades from scouts for its low-80s velocity and sweeping action and late depth. Szapucki throws a plus fastball that sits 93 mph and touches 96. He commands a low-90s sinker to both sides of the plate, though he needs to refine a little-used, below-average changeup that features late tumbling action. He struggles to locate his changeup for strikes in part because of a hard-to-repeat delivery, which includes a stabbing arm action, recoil in his finish and a head whack.

The Future: The Mets shut Szapucki down with back stiffness in August, so he has yet to prove he can hold up under a starter’s workload. If he can, he has No. 2 or 3 starter upside with two plus pitches and average control. A full season at low Class A Columbia would be telling.

2016 Club	W	L	ERA	G	GS	IP	H	HR	BB	SO	AVG
Kingsport (R)	2	1	0.62	5	5	29	16	2	9	47	.157
Brooklyn (SS)	2	2	2.35	4	4	23	10	0	11	39	.130

9. Gabriel Ynoa, rhp

Born: May 26, 1993. B-T: R-R. Ht.: 6-2. Wt.: 205. Signed: Dominican Republic, 2009. Signed by: Rafael Perez/Ismael Cruz/Modesto Abreu.

Background: Ynoa has attracted attention for his sharp control and smooth delivery since his days at short-season Brooklyn. He won pitcher-of-the-year honors in the low Class A South Atlantic League in 2013 and in three subsequent seasons averaged 150 innings and 1.9 walks per nine innings while climbing to Triple-A Las Vegas in 2016. He made his big league debut in August, which included three spot starts in September.

Scouting Report: Ynoa relies on pitch movement, control and changing speeds to succeed. He pitches with an average fastball at 93 mph that features heavy sinking and tailing action. He mixes two- and four-seam fastballs at velocities ranging from 85-95 mph to keep hitters off balance. Ynoa’s 83-85 mph slider has developed into an above-average neutralizer that generates both swinging strikes and ground balls with its quick, late tilt. His above-average mid-80s changeup features late drop and some fading action. Ynoa exhibits focus on the mound and knows how to read opponents’ swings, yet he struck out just 4.5 per nine innings at Triple-A. Some scouts project future growth for Ynoa based on his clean mechanics.

The Future: Evaluators who like Ynoa see a No. 4 starter, while those who don’t project him to a swingman or relief role. The Mets won’t need to make a final decision in 2017 because he has one minor league option remaining.

2016 Club	W	L	ERA	G	GS	IP	H	HR	BB	SO	AVG
Las Vegas (AAA)	12	5	3.97	25	25	154	170	15	40	78	.285
New York (MLB)	1	0	6.38	10	3	18	28	0	7	17	.333

10. Tomas Nido, c

Born: April 12, 1994. B-T: R-R. Ht.: 6-0. Wt.: 205. Drafted: HS—Maitland, Fla., 2012 (8th round). Signed by: Mike Silvestri.

Background: Born in Puerto Rico, Nido moved to the Orlando area in high school and passed on Florida State when the Mets offered him $250,000 as an eighth-round pick in 2012. He spent three years in short-season and one at low Class A before breaking out at high Class A St. Lucie in 2016, when he hit .320 to claim the Florida State League batting title.

Scouting Report: Despite hitting for a high average in 2016, Nido is better known for his above-average to plus raw power. He consistently drives the ball to his pull side with a quick swing and established career highs with seven home runs and a .140 isolated slugging percentage in 2016. Nido makes contact at high rate and doesn’t walk or strike out much, but in 2016 focused on letting the ball travel deeper into the zone and using the whole field, especially with two strikes. It paid off with a career year. Pitchers like throwing to Nido, the best defensive catcher in the system. He grades as average overall because his hands and blocking ability are sound, while his arm and game-calling ability are above-average. He needs to improve the accuracy of his throws, though he did retire 42 percent of FSL basestealers.

The Future: Double-A Binghamton is the next step for Nido, whom the Mets added to the 40-man roster in November. He has the tools to be the Mets’ backstop of the future.