2016 Texas League Top 20 Prospects

See Also: 2016 League Top 20 Index

LEAGUE SUPERLATIVES

Alex Bregman

Championship Series
Midland (Athletics) 3
NW Arkansas (Royals) 1

Best Record
Corpus Christi (Astros), 85-55 (.607)

Most Valuable Player
Matt Chapman, 3b, Midland (Athletics)

Pitcher OF The Year
Chase De Jong, rhp, Tulsa (Dodgers)

Did Not Qualify
Raul A. Mondesi, ss, NW Arkansas (Royals)

The names keep changing but the Rockhounds keep winning.

Midland won its third straight Texas League title after topping Northwest Arkansas three games to one in the best-of-five championship series. The win was also the team’s fourth title in the past eight seasons.

Midland has won with a veteran club with few prospects (2014), they’ve won with a dominant lineup in 2015 and this year Brandon Mann’s outstanding playoff run (1-1, 0.73) helped lead to a three-peat.

This year’s Rockhounds club was impressively loaded with prospects. First baseman Ryon Healy led the team in the first half before being promoted. Third baseman Matt Chapman was consistent all season while shortstop/second baseman Franklin Barreto had a strong second half.

It was a solid year for prospect watching around the league, but it couldn’t compare to 2015 when Corey Seager and Carlos Correa wowed everyone.

1. Alex Bregman ss/3b, Corpus Christi (Astros) |

Age: 22. B-T: R-R. Ht.: 6-0. Wt.: 180. Drafted: Louisiana State, 2015 (1).

While Bregman doesn’t have the jaw-dropping physical tools of fellow Astros shortstop Carlos Correa, he brought quality tools and an even more impressive approach and attitude to a brief Double-A stopover on his way to the big leagues.

Bregman’s short, simple stroke drew raves from evaluators as a low-maintenance swing that will collect bushels of hits. He shows no fear about hitting with two strikes. He came into his power more frequently at Corpus Christi as he focused on pulling inside pitches more consistently. He’s an average runner but runs the bases well.

Bregman is an average defender at shortstop who showed his aptitude by picking up third base and left field on the fly. He projects as an above-average defender at second or third base.

AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
236	54	70	16	2	14	46	42	26	5	3	.297	.415	.559

2. Cody Bellinger 1b/of, Tulsa (Dodgers)

Age: 21. B-T: L-L. Ht.: 6-4. Wt.: 210. Drafted: HS—Chandler, Ariz., 2013 (4).

While Bellinger batted .263 at Tulsa this season, it’s important to keep in mind that no TL hitter broke the .300 barrier this year. He ranked in the top five in the league with 23 home runs, a .359 on-base percentage and by slugging .484.

Bellinger has a smooth swing that gives him a chance to hit for average or power. He gets a little big in his swing at times as he looks to pull long home runs, but when he stays compact he can use an all-field approach.

Bellinger plays primarily first base, but he is athletic and an average runner. He grades as an above-average defender with a plus arm in the outfield corners, but his glove is Gold Glove-caliber at first base. He sees more fielding chances there than in the outfield, and his soft hands help him dig out low throws from infielders.

AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
399	61	105	17	1	23	65	59	94	8	2	.263	.359	.484

3. Francis Martes rhp, Corpus Christi (Astros) |

Age: 20. B-T: R-R. Ht.: 6-1. Wt.: 225. Signed: Dominican Republic, 2012 (Marlins).

Martes frequently brought no-hitter stuff to the mound, and even when he struggled with control, he dominated hitters with his fastball. He was one of the youngest pitchers in Double-A, and it showed at times. His control needs further refinement, and Martes still misses his target by feet at times by bouncing curveballs or overthrowing fastballs high and to his arm side.

Martes has a long arm action with a quick-tempo delivery, but when he’s locked in he can dominate hitters with a 92-98 mph fastball with plenty of armside run and an above-average curveball. He has touched 100 mph. His hard split-changeup also flashes above-average, though it’s clearly his third offering.

W	L	ERA	G	GS	SV	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	AVG
9	6	3.30	25	22	0	125	104	53	46	4	47	131	.222

4. Luke Weaver rhp, Springfield (Cardinals) |

Age: 23. B-T: R-R. Ht.: 6-2. Wt.: 170. Drafted: Florida State, 2014 (1).

Weaver missed the first two months of the season as he recovered from a broken wrist he sustained in a collision in the outfield during spring training. But once he arrived in Springfield in early June, he was the best pitcher in the TL until his promotion to Triple-A in August. Just a week later, he was in the big leagues, where he quickly became a valuable member of the Cardinals rotation.

Weaver throws a 92-95 mph fastball that is just as impressive as it was when he was drafted out of Florida State, but his curveball and changeup have improved. His changeup now grades as an above-average offering, and his curveball, while much less consistent, also will flash above-average. He also has added a high-80s cutter which has given lefthanded batters something else to worry about.

W	L	ERA	G	GS	SV	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	AVG
6	3	1.40	12	12	0	77	63	23	12	4	10	88	.214

5. David Paulino rhp, Corpus Christi (Astros)

Age: 22. B-T: R-R. Ht.: 6-7. Wt.: 215. Signed: Dominican Republic, 2010 (Tigers).

Top Astros prospects Paulino and Francis Martes fronted the Corpus Christi rotation. While Martes is a stocky 6-foot-1 with a power breaking ball, Paulino is tall, skinny and long-limbed with a changeup he uses to toy with hitters who are geared for the fastball.

Paulino sits 91-96 mph with a fastball that has plenty of downhill plane and excellent armside run. He likes to run his fastball in on the hands of righthanded batters—they slugged just .294 against him in the TL. He baffles lefthanders with a consistently above-average changeup. His high-70s, big-breaking curveball flashes plus as well, but it’s significantly less consistent and it sometimes gets too slurvy.

The Astros suspended Paulino in June for a disciplinary issue. The timing of the suspension coincided with a bout of elbow tendinitis, which highlights one of Paulino’s biggest obstacles to success: health.

W	L	ERA	G	GS	SV	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	AVG
5	2	1.83	14	9	1	64	47	16	13	3	11	72	.204

6. Matt Chapman 3b, Midland (Athletics) |

Age: 23. B-T: R-R. Ht.: 6-0. Wt.: 210. Drafted: Cal State Fullerton, 2014 (1).

Chapman’s game is all power, all the time. Promoted to Triple-A Nashville in mid-August, he still led the TL with 29 home runs and earned league MVP honors. Despite his home-run exploits, his truly exceptional throwing arm is his greatest tool and earns him top-of-the-scale grades from some scouts.

Chapman has power to all fields, but it comes with a well below-average hit tool. He has a solid understanding of the strike zone and recognizes pitches well, but his swing features a deep load and apparent stiffness, making him a projected fringe-average hitter.
Defensively, Chapman has few peers at third base. He has a chance to be a 70-grade defender on the 20-80 scouting scale.

AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
438	78	107	26	4	29	83	59	147	7	4	.244	.335	.521

7. Franklin Barreto ss/2b, Midland (Athletics)

Age: 20. B-T: R-R. Ht.: 5-10. Wt.: 190. Signed: Venezuela, 2012 (Blue Jays).

As the key prospect the Athletics received from the Blue Jays in the Josh Donaldson trade, Barreto has faced unrealistic expectations the past two seasons, though he did remind TL observers why he’s viewed as an advanced hitter.

In the second half of the season, Barreto showed the ability to lay off tough pitches out of the zone, helping him overcome a slow start and hit .337/.393/.490. A line-drive hitter with a low-maintenance swing, he has no problem catching up to velocity. His up-the-middle approach suits him for hitting singles and doubles but does limit his power projection.

Barreto is a fringy defensive shortstop thanks to his footwork, and he fits better at second base, where he shows above-average range. His hands work well wherever he plays and his arm is adequate.

AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
462	63	130	25	3	10	50	36	90	30	15	.281	.340	.413

8. Ryon Healy, 1b/3b, Midland (Athletics) |

Age: 24. B-T: 6-5. HT: 6-5. Wt.: 225. Drafted: Oregon, 2013 (3).

Assigned back to the TL after a solid but unspectacular 2015 season, Healy played his way to Triple-A Nashville, which set the stage for a July 15 big league callup and outstanding rookie season in Oakland.

Healy had to work hard on his defense to make third base an option. He played first base at Oregon and still played there at Midland in deference to Matt Chapman. He is a below-average defender at third base who struggles with range.

At the plate, Healy has made a deliberate effort to generate more power, tweaking his swing to develop more lift. All but one of his home runs this season went to left or center field, but thanks to excellent timing, he also has shown an ability to hit for average.

AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
145	27	49	12	3	8	34	18	35	1	0	.338	.409	.628

9. Teoscar Hernandez of, Corpus Christi (Astros) |

Age: 23. B-T: R-R. Ht.: 6-2. Wt.: 180. Signed: Dominican Republic, 2011.

Hernandez recorded a .637 OPS in the TL last season and went unselected in the major league Rule 5 draft in December after the Astros declined to add him to the 40-man roster. This year, he played his way to Triple-A and eventually the big leagues by showing a much-improved facility for recognizing and hitting breaking balls.

Hernandez’s power did suffer slightly from his emphasis on making contact, but it’s a fair tradeoff. He is a plus runner and plus defender in center field who has the plus arm to play right field as well.

AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
279	53	85	19	0	6	30	32	55	29	11	.305	.384	.437

10. Lewis Brinson of, Frisco (Rangers) |

Age: 22. B-T: R-R. Ht.: 6-3. Wt.: 195. Drafted: HS—Coral Springs, Fla., 2012 (1).

Brinson has an intriguing combination of size, strength and speed. He punishes fastballs enough to project as at least an average hitter with average power. He needs to do a better job of recognizing and laying off difficult-to-hit breaking balls, a skill he improved upon in 2015 before regressing this season.

Scouts offer mixed reviews of Brinson’s defense in center field. Some grade him as above-average, while others project him to a corner once his body fills out. His arm works well in either center or right field.

AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
304	46	72	14	6	11	40	17	64	11	4	.237	.280	.431

11. Carson Kelly, c, Springfield (Cardinals) |

Age: 22. B-T: R-R. Ht.: 6-3. Wt.: 220. Drafted: HS–Portland, Ore., 2012 (2).

Kelly was clearly the most well-rounded catching prospect in the TL. Multiple managers and scouts see him as a future everyday catcher.

Kelly’s throwing arm is average to above-average and he threw out 33 percent of basestealers in the league, but that’s his weakest tool behind the plate. He blocks balls well and is a solid pitch presenter. Defensively he’s an above-average catcher.

Offensively, Kelly is notable because he an average hitter with near-average power.

AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
216	29	62	7	0	6	18	14	46	0	1	.287	.338	.403

12. Andrew Toles, of, Tulsa (Dodgers)

Age: 24. B-T: L-R. Ht.: 5-11. Wt.: 180. Drafted: Chipola (Fla.) JC, 2012 (3/Rays).

Toles was released by the Rays before the 2015 season and no team picked him up all year. It wasn’t because of his lack of tools—he hit .326 to win the 2013 Midwest League batting title, for example—but instead because teams have long been concerned about his makeup.

The Dodgers gave Toles a fourth chance this spring. He had been let go by two college programs and the Rays, but with the Dodgers, he proved to be a grinder who played all out to turn his career around and make the majors. He gave a consistent all-out effort that helped him jump from out of baseball to the big leagues in just half a season.

Toles carries more risk than the average prospect, but he still has a shot of being a .280 hitter with near-average power while playing above-average defense anywhere in the outfield with a plus arm.

AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
175	27	55	14	3	5	22	12	30	13	3	.314	.363	.514

13. Alex Verdugo, of, Tulsa (Dodgers) |

Age: 20. B-T: L-L. Ht.: 6-0. Wt.: 205. Drafted: HS—Tucson, 2014 (2).

Verdugo turns off many with his nontraditional hitting approach and his not-always-consistent effort in the outfield. But even those turned off by Verdugo wonder what he could be when the 20-year-old matures into a more well-rounded version of his current self.

Verdugo has a top-of-the-scale arm that is just as accurate as it is powerful, and his ability to take good routes and reads make him a plus center fielder. His swing is unorthodox, and he doesn’t generate power with his opposite-field heavy approach, but he makes a ton of contact and should be an above-average hitter.

AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
477	58	130	23	1	13	63	44	67	2	6	.273	.336	.407

14. Franchy Cordero, of, San Antonio (Padres)

Age. 21. B-T: L-R. Ht.: 6-3. Wt.: 175. Signed: Dominican Republic, 2011.

A disaster at shortstop early in his career, Cordero is quickly turning into an accomplished center fielder. His breaks on the ball can continue to improve but his plus speed has helped him become an average center fielder with room to grow.

Cordero has significant swing and miss thanks to his aggressive approach, but he barrels the ball well and is starting to turn his plus raw power into at least average productive power. He has plenty of upside still to access, but even where Cordero is right now is intriguing.

AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
245	31	75	8	8	6	19	17	67	12	6	.306	.356	.478

15. Brock Stewart, rhp, Tulsa (Dodgers)

Age: 24. B-T: L-R. Ht.: 6-3. Wt.: 210. Drafted: Illinois State, 2014 (6).

The son of scout Jeff Stewart, Brock has transformed from a college third baseman to a starting pitcher who now dots the corners of the strike zone.

After sliding over to the first-base side of the rubber, Stewart began locating his 93-94 mph fastball down and away to righthanded hitters. He also improved his changeup to the point where it’s at least average. He can throw a less-aggressive changeup early in the count for rollover ground balls, but he also tries to get swings and misses with a changeup with more late movement in two-strike counts. His slider has improved to average as well, though it sometimes is too easy to identify out of his hand.

Stewart does an excellent job of generating ground balls and didn’t allow a home run in his 10 TL starts.

W	L	ERA	G	GS	SV	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	AVG
3	4	1.37	10	10	0	59	41	12	9	0	11	65	.196

16. Willie Calhoun, 2b, Tulsa (Dodgers)

Age: 21. B-T: L-R. Ht.: 5-8. Wt.: 187. Drafted: Yavapai (Ariz.) JC, 2015 (4).

The hit tool is the most important tool a position prospect can have, and Calhoun has a long track record of putting the bat on the ball stretching back to high school. He also was one of the better home-run hitters in the TL even though numerous players have more raw power. Calhoun has already learned that at 375-foot home run counts as much as a 450-footer.

What scouts can’t figure out is where Calhoun will play. He is a hard-handed second baseman who struggles to field the ball cleanly. His below-average arm also limits him at second base and also limits his other defensive options. He could go back to left field, but he has limited range as a 40 runner on the 20-80 scouting scale. First base isn’t an option because he’s 5-foot-8.

Calhoun’s bat provides value, but he has a lot of work to do to find a position.

AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
503	75	128	25	1	27	88	45	65	0	0	.254	.318	.469

17. Matt Strahm, lhp, Northwest Arkansas (Royals)

Age: 24. B-T: R-L. Ht.: 6-3. Wt.: 185. Drafted: Neosho County (Kan.) CC, 2012 (21).

Strahm has worked as a starter in the minors, though Royals fans who saw him try to save the big league bullpen in August may believe differently. Working as a lefty reliever for Kansas City, he struck out 30 in 22 innings, but he has the stuff to be a three-pitch mid-rotation starter.

Strahm impressed at high Class A Wilmington in 2015, but he made some needed refinements in the TL. He got more direct to the plate, which helped him get down in the strike zone more consistently with his 91-94 mph fastball. Strahm also tightened his curveball, turning it from a slurvier mid-70s sweeper to a more up-and-down high-70s downer. His changeup is an above-average pitch that makes him effective against righthanders.

W	L	ERA	G	GS	SV	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	AVG
3	8	3.43	22	18	0	102	102	47	39	14	23	107	.260

18. Derek Fisher, of, Corpus Christi (Astros) |

Age: 23. B-T: L-R. Ht.: 6-3. Wt.: 205. Signed: Virginia, 2014 (1s).

Fisher has the tools to one day be the best outfielder to come out of the TL in 2016. He will show plus raw power and plus-plus speed, while his defense has made significant strides since his time at Virginia.

Fisher focused on pitch selectivity, which paid off with a vastly enhanced walk rate and a higher on-base percentage, though it came at the cost of passivity at times. He could aim to be either a top-of-the-order bat or more of a middle-of-the-order masher with a higher strikeout rate. He’s shown a facility for either batting profile, but he can’t seem to combine the attributes.

Fisher’s biggest weakness defensively is a below-average arm that limits him to left field or center. His routes have improved to where he is an average center fielder.

AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
371	54	91	13	4	16	59	74	128	23	7	.245	.373	.431

19. Yohander Mendez, lhp, Frisco (Rangers)

Age: 21. B-T: L-L. Ht. 6-5. Wt.: 200. Signed: Venezuela, 2011.

Coming into the season, Mendez had yet to throw a pitch above low Class A. By September he was pitching in the big leagues after generating bad swings at three different minor league stops.

Mendez has been handled cautiously—he has thrown six innings just three times as a pro and has never pitched into the seventh.

Mendez profiles as a mid-rotation starter thanks to an average 90-92 mph fastball and a plus changeup. His changeup is a swing-and-miss pitch with deception and some fade. His slider is a get-me-over offering most of the time, but he’ll show better feel for it in his best starts as it becomes an average pitch.

W	L	ERA	G	GS	SV	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	AVG
4	1	3.09	10	10	0	47	39	18	16	2	14	46	.228

20. Harrison Bader, of, Springfield (Cardinals)

Age: 22. B-T: R-R. Ht.: 6-0. Wt.: 195. Drafted: Florida, 2015 (3).

Coming into his junior year at Florida, Bader looked to be a corner outfielder who didn’t hit for enough power to profile in a corner as a pro. Bader answered some of those concerns with 17 homers as a college junior.

Bader then hit 16 home runs in just 82 games at Springfield this year and also showed better-than-expected defense in center field. He is an average defender at best in center, but he impressed with his high-energy, no-fear approach to running down balls in the gap and at the wall.

Bader’s above-average speed doesn’t really provide much value until he figures out how to get better jumps on the basepaths, and he strikes out too much, but his ability to hit for power while playing up the middle provides a path to the big leagues.

AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
318	48	90	12	4	16	41	25	93	11	10	.283	.351	.497

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