2016 South Atlantic League Top 20 Prospects

LEAGUE SUPERLATIVES

Victor Robles

Championship Series
Rome (Braves) 3, Lakewood (Phillies) 1

Best Record
Hagerstown (Nationals), 83-57 (.593)

Most Valuable Player
Brian Mundell, 1b, Asheville (Rockies)

Pitcher of The Year
Mitch Keller, rhp, West Virginia (Pirates)

Did Not Qualify
Domingo Acevedo, rhp, Charleston (Yankees)

See Also: 2016 League Top 20 Index

A team loaded with prospects is not guaranteed success. But in 2016, the low Class A South Atlantic League championship series fittingly matched up the league’s most prospect-laden team (Rome) with its second-best group of prospects (Lakewood).

Rome’s combination of young, high-ceiling talent was most notable. The Braves had the youngest position players and pitching staff in the league, but they also had the deepest rotation the league has seen in recent years. In the second half of the season Rome fielded a six-man rotation where all six pitchers were legitimate prospects. That ended when Patrick Weigel was promoted.

Lakewood wasn’t far behind with a pitching staff that was filled with pitchers with big fastballs and solid secondary pitches.

1. Victor Robles, of, Hagerstown (Nationals) |

Age: 19. B-T: R-R. Ht.: 6-0. Wt.: 185. Signed: Dominican Republic, 2013

Robles hit .352 in his U.S. debut in 2015 and continued his hot hitting this season at Hagerstown to rank as the near unanimous pick as the top position prospect in the SAL.

Robles’ stance is balanced, but he crowds the plate, giving him coverage of the outer half and daring pitchers to throw inside. They do and he often ends up jogging to first base with a bruise. Only one minor league player was hit by more pitches than Robles (34), and he had more HBPs than walks. He missed three weeks in late July with a hand injury after one of his plunkings.

Robles uses his above-average bat speed to good effect, though he can get a little big in his swing and greedy in his attempts to drive the ball with impact. His combination of bat speed and strength gives him a shot at above-average power potential with a plus hit tool.

Robles is a 70 runner on the 20-80 scouting scale and puts that speed to good use in center field, where he tracks balls well and is the rare young outfielder who is comfortable running to a spot and reacquiring the ball on the run.

AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
233	48	71	9	6	5	30	18	38	19	9	.305	.405	.459

2. Mitch Keller, rhp, West Virginia (Pirates)

Age: 20. B-T: R-R. Ht.: 6-3. Wt.: 195. Drafted: HS—Cedar Rapids, Iowa, 2014 (2).

In a league filled with pitching prospects, Keller still managed to stand out as a potential future ace. He announced his presence with three straight scoreless starts to begin the season in which he struck out 23 and walked no one in 15 innings.

Keller’s 93-97 mph fastball comes out of his hand easy, and he also showed consistently that he could generate swings and misses and weak contact with it in the strike zone because it has tilt and life. His fastball was dominant all season long, but his power breaking ball got better as the season progressed. Early on, he tried to make every curve a fire-breathing snapdragon that dived out of the zone, but later on he loosed his breaking ball early in the count for strikes, then saved his 11-to-5 hammer for later in counts.

Keller’s changeup also improved. It’s a little hard at times, but with his ability to locate it and generate deception, it generates roll-over groundouts thanks to its late drop. Keller finished just as well as he started, ending his season with a 29-inning scoreless streak.

W	L	ERA	G	GS	SV	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	AVG
8	5	2.46	23	23	0	124	96	36	34	4	18	131	.211

3. Brendan Rodgers, ss/2b, Asheville (Rockies) |

Age: 20. B-T: R-R. Ht.: 6-0. Wt.: 180. Drafted: HS—Lake Mary, Fla., 2015 (1).

Last summer Rodgers struggled to stay on the field consistently in his first exposure to pro ball at Rookie-level Grand Junction. The grind left him needing regular days off to rest and recover. This year he adjusted to the pro game. He stayed healthy and showed the same arm strength and bat speed in August as in April.

Rodgers’ productivity didn’t match his stamina. He feasted on pitchers who challenged him with fastballs in the first half, proving that he can turn on velocity, but he struggled against changeups and breaking balls away. His power production didn’t tail off, but his strikeout rate spiked over the final two months of the season.

Some question whether Rodgers will stick at shortstop, for he will have to work on his side-to-side quickness, and he started 24 games at second base this season. While he has plenty of arm strength, he has a tendency to throw with a long arm action, though he will shorten up when pressed for time. His hands work well and he took better angles to the ball as the season progressed.

AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
442	73	124	31	0	19	73	35	98	6	3	.281	.342	.480

4. Anderson Espinoza, rhp, Greenville (Red Sox) |

Age: 18. B-T: R-R. Ht.: 6-0. Wt.: 160. Signed: Venezuela, 2014.

Espinoza entered the season with almost impossible expectations, many of which he has set himself. He said he wanted to reach the big leagues at age 19, just like Felix Hernandez, his favorite player growing up.

Instead, Espinoza learned that full-season ball can be difficult for any 18-year-old, even one with outstanding stuff. Another difficulty: The Red Sox traded him in July to the Padres for Drew Pomeranz.

Espinoza’s stuff is advanced, and he knows how to sequence. He throws in the mid-90s with a low-effort delivery. His changeup is a present plus pitch that baffles young hitters, but his curveball took a step back in 2016. It rarely was the sharp, power breaking ball he flashed last year.

Espinoza got into trouble when he tried to be too perfect. Instead of attacking hitters with his fastball, he tended to try to pitch to the corners, which ran up his pitch count, which typically ranged from 75-95 while at Greenville.

W	L	ERA	G	GS	SV	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	AVG
5	8	4.38	17	17	0	76	77	39	37	2	27	72	.269

5. Kolby Allard, lhp, Rome (Braves) |

Age: 19. B-T: L-L. Ht.: 6-1. Wt.: 180. Drafted: HS—San Clemente, Calif., 2015 (1).

Allard started late because the Braves held him out of action in spring training as he returned from a 2015 back injury. When he joined the Rome staff in June, he struggled in three starts before being demoted to Rookie-level Danville.

Allard returned to Rome after a month in the Appalachian League and finally got to show why he was considered by many the best high school lefthander in the 2015 draft. He went 4-0, 1.72 with 37 strikeouts and six walks in 31 August innings, and he then threw 12 scoreless playoff innings.

Allard sat 90-94 mph in his return to Rome with excellent life on his fastball. He does a good job of working down in the zone. His success is based more on his well-rounded repertoire than any one pitch. His breaking ball and changeup both are at least average and flash plus, and he already has advanced feel for mixing his pitches.

W	L	ERA	G	GS	SV	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	AVG
5	3	3.73	11	11	0	60	54	27	25	5	20	62	.244

6. Max Fried, lhp, Rome (Braves) |

Age: 22. B-T: L-L. Ht.: 6-4. Wt.: 180. Drafted: HS—Los Angeles, 2012 (1/Padres).

The Braves acquired Fried from the Padres in the December 2014 Justin Upton trade at a time when the lefthander still was recovering from Tommy John surgery. The seventh overall pick in 2012, he returned this season to low Class A, the level where he spent a full season in 2013 before his elbow injury.

Now 22, Fried needed the first half of the season to shake off rust and return to form after Tommy John surgery, especially when it came to his fastball command. He left a mid-July start with a blister that forced him to the disabled list for a month, but when he returned, he was every bit the pitcher the Braves envisioned.

Fried struck out 10 in back-to-back starts to end the regular season and then fanned 11 in his first playoff start. He did so with a 92-95 mph fastball that touched 97, a plus curveball that acts as two distinct breaking pitches—a slow, early-count one and a harder strikeout pitch—and a changeup that has improved to an average offering that generates some swings and misses.

W	L	ERA	G	GS	SV	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	AVG
8	7	3.93	21	20	0	103	87	52	45	10	47	112	.236

7. Mike Soroka, rhp, Rome (Braves) |

Age: 18. B-T: R-R. Ht.: 6-4. Wt.: 195. Drafted: HS—Calgary, 2015 (1).

A 2015 first-round pick, Soroka threw 143 innings during the regular season and added another 15 during the playoffs, giving him the heaviest workload of any high school first-round pick in his first full season in the past decade. But the Braves didn’t worry about Soroka’s innings because he is so efficient. He showed an ability to work six or seven innings on just 65-85 pitches.

When Soroka is rolling, everything starts with a 90-92 mph sinker that generates early-count ground balls. He can reach back for 95 mph when he needs it as well. His curveball and changeup are both above-average pitches, and he has above-average control of all three, giving him a chance to stay one step ahead of hitters.

One of the younger pitchers in the SAL, Soroka pitched like a much older veteran, showing an ability to read swings, make adjustments and diagnose delivery issues.

W	L	ERA	G	GS	SV	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	AVG
9	9	3.02	25	24	0	143	130	58	48	3	32	125	.244

8. Franklyn Kilome, rhp, Lakewood (Phillies)

Age: 21. B-T: R-R. Ht.: 6-6. Wt.: 175. Signed: Dominican Republic, 2013.

Like many young pitchers. Kilome had to learn the hard way that a spike curveball is a pitch that looks great in side sessions but is devilishly hard to master.

Kilome hasn’t completely given up on the spike curve, but working with Lakewood pitching coach Brian Sweeney he picked up the grip of a more conventional curveball that quickly became a much more useful weapon because he can throw it for swinging strikes in the zone.

Kilome’s fastball still is his primary weapon. He sits 92-96 mph and touches 98 with a lively fastball he struggles to control. Once he had both his fastball and curveball working, he dominated in the second half by recording a 2.77 ERA with 12.0 strikeouts per nine innings after a 1-6, 5.09 first half.

While plenty of scouts think Kilome will become a long-limbed power reliever, especially since his changeup is so rudimentary, he indicated this summer that he can make adjustments.

W	L	ERA	G	GS	SV	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	AVG
5	8	3.85	23	23	0	115	113	55	49	6	50	130	.259

9. Luis Alexander Basabe, of, Greenville (Red Sox)

Age: 20. B-T: B-R. Ht.: 6-0. Wt.: 160. Signed: Venezuela, 2012.

For the first two months of the season, Basabe found himself struggling to stay alive against pitchers who had him figured out. Eventually, Greenville hitting coach Lee May Jr. had Basabe stand in the batter’s box for Drive pitchers’ bullpen sessions to practice tracking changeups and spin.

The plan worked. Basabe’s pitch selection improved dramatically from May to July, which allowed one of the league’s most talented players to start making an impact. He is an above-average runner with a quick first step in the outfield that makes him a plus defensive center fielder, though his routes sometimes meander a bit.

A switch-hitter, Basabe has bat speed and strength to be an average hitter with above-average power. That offensive potential combined with his speed and defense make him one of the most well-rounded prospects in the SAL.

AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
403	61	104	24	8	12	52	40	116	25	5	.258	.325	.447

10. Patrick Weigel, rhp, Rome (Braves)

Age: 22. B-T: R-R. Ht.: 6-6. Wt.: 220. Drafted: Houston, 2015 (7).

On a stuff basis, Weigel matched up with any righthanded starter in the SAL this year. His fastball sat 92-95 mph, but he showed an ability to find 98 consistently. The control troubles that had long bedeviled him in college seemed largely behind him, though he struggled at times to locate to his glove side. His wildness now is largely limited to throwing balls rather than pitches that catch too much of the plate.

Weigel throws a pair of breaking balls. His best is a potentially plus, mid-80s slider with short, downward action that makes it resemble a power curveball. He also throws a slower, bigger mid-70s curveball on occasion. His changeup needs improvement, and with his fastball and slider, he didn’t need to throw his change much in the SAL.

Weigel spent most of his college career as a reliever, but with his physical 6-foot-6 frame and ability to maintain his stuff, he is earning a look as a starter.

W	L	ERA	G	GS	SV	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	AVG
10	4	2.51	22	21	0	129	92	44	36	7	47	135	.203

11. Phil Bickford, rhp, Augusta (Giants) |

Age: 21. B-T: R-R. Ht.: 6-4. Wt.: 200. Drafted: JC of Southern Nevada, 2015 (1).

Bickford struck out 10.4 batters per nine innings in his time with Augusta despite the fact that there were nights where he was pitching with one above-average pitch. The Giants traded him to the Brewers for reliever Will Smith in July.

Bickford can cruise through a lineup the first time by throwing exclusively fastballs. He gets swings and misses despite modest 90-92 mph velocity, though he can touch 94. His fastball doesn’t seem particularly lively until it gets close to the plate, at which point it appears to rise through the zone. That late hop and high spin rate makes it hard for batters to barrel.

Bickford mixes in an inconsistent low-80s slider that flashes above-average potential but is just as often a fringe-average pitch. His below-average changeup has a long way to go.

W	L	ERA	G	GS	SV	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	AVG
3	4	2.70	11	11	0	60	49	23	18	2	15	69	.220

12. Ronald Acuna, of, Rome (Braves)

Age: 18. B-T: R-R. Ht.: 6-0. Wt.: 180. Signed: Venezuela, 2014.

Acuna missed the majority of the season with a thumb injury that sidelined him from mid-May to mid-August. But in the first and last months of the season he showed the well-rounded range of tools that make him a prospect with one of the highest ceilings in the Braves system.

Acuna is a plus runner who runs down balls in the gaps as an above-average center fielder. For example, he ran down a ball deep in the right-center field gap in the SAL playoff finals, then spun and threw out a Lakewood runner for a double play. His above-average arm will also play in right field.

At the plate, Acuna shows plus to plus-plus raw power and has demonstrated average power in games. He uses the whole field and makes enough contact to continue to hit for average as he matures.

AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
148	27	46	2	2	4	18	18	28	14	7	.311	.387	.432

13. Austin Riley, 3b, Rome (Braves)

Age: 19. B-T: R-R. Ht.: 6-3. Wt.: 220. Drafted: HS—Southaven, Miss., 2015 (1s).

Rome went just 27-42 in the first half, but the Braves recorded the best record in the Southern Division in the second half, going 43-27. Riley was a big reason for that. He went from being an easy out in the first half to the league’s most dangerous slugger in the second.

Early in the season, Riley could be retired by pitchers who located or threw hard in on his hands. But he shortened his swing load and focused on a more direct, downward path from setup to the strike zone, which speed up his bat. That allowed him to start turning on inside fastballs and driving balls on the outer half the other way. Riley cut his strikeout rate from 32 percent to 22 percent while hitting 17 of his 20 home runs in the second half.

Defensively, Riley is fringe-average at third base. His size and lack of reliability (he committed 30 errors) leave some to wonder if first base is a better fit, though he improved his angles to balls and has plenty of arm for the hot corner.

AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
495	68	134	39	2	20	80	39	147	3	3	.271	.324	.479

14. Ke’Bryan Hayes, 3b, West Virginia (Pirates) |

Age: 19. B-T: R-R. Ht.: 6-1. Wt.: 210. Drafted: HS—Tomball, Texas, 2015 (1).

Of the first-round high school hitters from the 2015 draft to play in the SAL, Hayes combined the best of both worlds by showing an advanced hitting approach to go with big power. Contrast that with Lakewood left fielder Cornelius Randolph, taken 10th overall by the Phillies, who liked to line the ball over the shortstop’s head or Greensboro first baseman Josh Naylor, taken 12th by the Marlins, who tried to hit it through the wall beyond the right fielder.

Hayes missed the second half of the season with a back injury, but before he started trying to play through the injury he showed an advanced up-the-middle approach and the ability to pound good fastballs. He puts together competitive at-bats and recognizes spin, but he hasn’t yet shown he can pounce on hanging breaking balls.
Defensively, Hayes has a good internal clock and an advanced feel for playing third base. He reads hops well, sets his feet and uses his plus arm when needed.

AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
247	27	65	12	1	6	37	16	51	6	5	.263	.319	.393

15. Touki Toussaint, rhp, Rome (Braves) |

Age: 20. B-T: R-R. Ht.: 6-3. Wt.: 185. Drafted: HS–Coral Springs, Fla., 2014 (1/Diamondbacks).

Early in the year, Toussaint had mid-90s velocity readings but little else. He struggled to locate his mid-90s fastball, and even when he did, it generated fewer swings and misses and more solid contact than expected.
Rome pitching coach Dan Meyer helped Toussaint lower his arm slot to more true three-quarters. The move gave his fastball more movement to turn it into a swing-and-miss offering for the first time. That also allowed him to get to his hard, jaw-dropping breaking ball more often. Toussaint’s strikeout rate jumped from 6.0 per nine innings in the first half to 11.2 per nine in the second.

Toussaint, whom the Braves acquired from the Diamondbacks in June 2015 in the Bronson Arroyo salary dump, has below-average control that needs improvement. His plus fastball and breaking ball give him a chance to be a dominating starter or closer, but his poor control makes him a high-risk prospect.

W	L	ERA	G	GS	SV	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	AVG
4	8	3.88	27	24	0	132	105	66	57	13	71	128	.217

16. Max Schrock, 2b, Hagerstown (Nationals)

Age: 21. B-T: L-R. Ht.: 5-8. Wt.: 180. Drafted: South Carolina, 2015 (13).

Schrock quickly proved that he was a bargain as a 13th-round pick out of South Carolina in 2015 who signed for an over-slot $500,000. One of the most advanced hitters in the SAL, he earned MVP honors at the all-star game before a promotion to high Class A. He eventually made it to Double-A after a trade to the Athletics.

Schrock’s ability to put the barrel on the ball is his best attribute. He has modest home-run power to his the pull side, but with a simple swing and approach he’s best at using the whole field to spray line drives.

Schrock has worked hard to become a fringe-average defender at second base. His arm is fringy but he showed improved foot speed and better angles and range as the season progressed. He turns the double play well.

AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
270	46	88	20	2	4	39	22	20	15	3	.326	.381	.459

17. Gage Hinsz, rhp, West Virginia (Pirates) |

Age: 20. B-T: R-R. Ht.: 6-4. Wt.: 210. Drafted: HS—Billings, Mont., 2014 (11).

Few teams have done a better job of developing late-round, projectable arms into quality pitching prospects than the Pirates. They did it with righthanders Tyler Glasnow (fifth round) and Chad Kuhl (ninth round), and now they are doing it with Hinsz, a Montana prep taken in the 11th round and signed for $580,000.

The Pirates envision velocity gains when they draft projectable young arms, and Hinsz is no exception. He now sits 91-94 mph with a changeup he turned into an above-average weapon this year. He also throws a developing, high-70s curveball that flashes plus when he stays on top of it. Held back in extended spring training until June after walking more than five batters per nine innings last year at Rookie-level Bristol, Hinsz cut his walk rate in half this year.

Hinsz doesn’t get to his velocity as easy as teammate Mitch Keller, but then few do. He also isn’t as consistent from start to start, but he proved to be a worthy wingman to the West Virginia ace.

W	L	ERA	G	GS	SV	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	AVG
6	8	3.66	17	17	0	93	93	39	38	8	25	67	.266

18. Luis Alejando Basabe, 2b/ss, Greenville (Red Sox)

Age: 20. B-T: B-R. Ht.: 5-10. Wt.: 160. Signed: Venezuela, 2012.

Basabe played his way onto the Greenville roster this spring to join his twin brother Luis Alexander Baseabe. But A.J.—as his teammates called him—was expected to be a bottom-of-the-order hitter who would keep his head above water. Instead, he hit his way into the leadoff spot and proved to be a better defender than expected.

Basabe is a well-rounded player whose instincts and understanding of the game help his tools play up. He has developed into an average defender at second base who proved he can slide over to shortstop as he improves his footwork that gives him a better base to set and throw.

The switch-hitting Basabe shows solid understanding of the strike zone and a line-drive approach from both batter’s boxes. He shows average raw power but projects as more of a hitter than a slugger. He is an above-average runner.

The Red Sox ended up splitting up the twins when A.J. was traded to the Diamondbacks for Brad Ziegler on July 9.

AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
229	39	71	16	4	4	25	37	58	14	6	.310	.412	.467

19. Jose Taveras, rhp, Lakewood (Phillies)

Age: 22. B-T: R-R. Ht.: 6-4. Wt.: 210. Signed: Dominican Republic, 2013.

Other Lakewood pitchers throw harder or have better breaking pitches, but the whole is greater than the sum of the parts for Taveras. The thick-bodied 22-year-old gains deception from his cross-fire delivery, and he led the SAL with 154 strikeouts while ranking 10th with a 3.28 ERA.

Taveras projects as a future No. 4 starter with three pitches that range from near-average to solid-average. He can sink his 89-92 mph fastball to set up an average slider (it flashes above-average) and changeup, and he even flips a usable curveball into the zone on occasion. What makes him successful is his ability to locate all three of his primary offerings at any point in the count.

Taveras ranked second in the SAL only to Mitch Keller in baserunners per nine innings (9.6). At his best he dominanted, as he showed in a 15-strikeout performance against Greenville.

W	L	ERA	G	GS	SV	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	AVG
8	8	3.28	25	20	0	137	116	60	50	15	26	154	.229

20. Joe Palumbo, lhp, Hickory (Rangers)

Age: 21. B-T: L-L. Ht.: 6-1. Wt.: 150. Drafted: HS—West Islip, N.Y., 2013 (30).

First-round pick Dillon Tate was supposed to be Hickory’s ace, while Palumbo was ticketed to serve as a versatile lefty reliever. While Tate’s stuff backed up and he eventually was traded to the Yankees, Palumbo went from being Hickory’s closer to being its best starter in a seven-game, late-season stint in the rotation.

The skinny lefthander, a Long Island prep and 30th-round pick in 2013, demonstrated starter traits even as a reliever. Palumbo has three average or better pitches in his 90-94 mph fastball that touches 96, a plus curveball and a potentially average changeup.

Palumbo is especially tough on lefties. He held them to a .149 average this season. Working as a reliever, he led the SAL field with a .198 opponent average and 12.8 strikeouts per nine innings. Palumbo has a fallback option as a power reliever, but his clean, simple delivery gives the Rangers a reason to let him work as a starter.