13 Interesting Statcast Trends From The 2024 MLB Draft
Image credit: Jurrangelo Cijntje (Photo by Michael Wade/Getty Images)
As we await final announcements of bonus numbers and minor league assignments for MLB Draft picks, it’s a good time to take a look through the 2024 class with an eye toward trends and interesting data points. There won’t necessarily be consistent traits across teams’ individual classes, but there could be similar player types and patterns that give us a better understanding of what certain draft rooms value.
The following observations are based on NCAA performance and Statcast numbers from 2024. Due to the lack of consistent Trackman samples for prep picks, we will not discuss any high school draftees.
The Mariners Value Fastball Velocity
No one following the Mariners in recent years should be shocked to see Seattle draft three players whose fastballs sit 95 mph or above. Those three players—Hunter Cranton, Brock Moore and first-round pick Jurrangelo Cijntje (who does it with both arms)—were more than any other team. If we expand the sample to 94.5 mph or higher, the Mariners’ total jumps to six players, which is a quarter of the college pitchers with that level of velocity going to the same team.
The Yankees And Red Sox Value Extension
A common trait amongst college pitchers drafted by the Yankees and Red Sox is bigger-than-average extension and, in many cases, a high release point (which goes against the grain on targeting “flatness”). Of the 29 college pitchers drafted with an average of 6.5 feet of extension or more, four went to Boston and four went to New York. Red Sox second rounder Payton Tolle is the clear leader in extension with 7.28 feet on average, while 20th rounder Ben Hansen was also in the top ten at 6.82 feet. The Yankees landed four players in the range of 6.6 to 6.5 feet of extension in Greysen Carter, Brandon Decker, Griffin Herring and Ben Hess. It should be noted, however, that with 13 pitchers drafted in total, this uptick in high-extension players could simply be a product of volume drafting at the position.
The Reds Drafted Lots Of Stuff+ Darlings
The Reds landed three of the top 15 stuff+ four-seam fastballs in the draft, making them among the league leaders for such college pitcher draftees. Selecting Chase Burns at two will help do that, but it’s 17th rounder Trent Hodgdon that actually leads the group. Fifth rounder Tristan Smith also ranked right alongside Burns with a matching score of 121 stuff+ on his fastballs.
The Guardians Weren’t Far Off From The Reds On Four-Seam Stuff
Perhaps stuff+ could be considered the the official metric of Ohio, as the Guardians also landed three pitchers with stuff+ scores on their fastballs of 119 or above in fifth rounder Aidan Major, eighth rounder Donovan Zsak and 18th rounder Izaak Martinez. The Guardians also had a few names pop up when looking at two-seam stuff+. Fourth rounder Rafe Schlesinger and 15th rounder Connor Whittaker both ranked highly with scores of 111 and 114, respectively.
No One Landed More High Stuff+ Two-Seam Fastballs Than the Royals
The Royals landed three of the highest stuff+ scores on two-seam fastballs in this year’s college class. Fourth rounder L.P. Langevin (112 stuff+), fifth rounder A.J. Causey (121 stuff+) and 12th rounder Tommy Molsky (111 stuff+) all ranked within the top 15 of two-seam stuff+ performers among college pitchers.
The Best Combination of High Stuff+ Two-Seamers And Sliders Belongs To The Angels
The Angels drafted the highest and third-highest two-seam fastballs in the draft in second rounder Chris Cortez (126 stuff+) and seventh rounder Bridger Holmes (121 stuff+). It was an interesting slider class for the Angels, as well, as Bridger Holmes owns the highest slider score (144 stuff+), while second round supplemental pick Ryan Johnson (134 stuff+) ranks 11th.
The Phillies Drafted Four Top 20 Slider Stuff+ Scores On Day Two And Three
While the Angels might have the highest ranking duo, the Phillies also landed premier slider stuff+ with their group of 11th rounder Titan Hayes (128 stuff+), 12th rounder A.J. Wilson (137 stuff+), 17th rounder Ryan Degges (136 stuff+) and 20th round pick Kyle Carmack (133 stuff+). This was obviously a point of emphasis on day two and day three, as the Phillies cleaned up on high stuff+ scores after round two.
The Mariners Landed Lots of Sweeping Breaking Balls
The Mariners landed a collection of standout sweepers, headlined by a Wyatt Lunsford-Shenkman breaking ball that averages 19.8 inches of horizontal break and ranks third overall in the 2024 class. Brock Moore ranks fourth in horizontal break on his curveball (19 inches horizontal) while also featuring a slider with over 18 inches of sweep. Other standouts included fifth rounder Charlie Beilenson and sixth rounder Grant Knipp, who each average around 16 inches of sweep on their curveball (though neither threw the pitch much this season). Brian Walters, Seattle’s 19th round pick out of Miami, has a similar low usage on a high horizontal breaking ball, as well.
Several Teams Target Multiple Changeups With Big Armside Run
Six teams dominated the leaderboard for college pitchers drafted with the most run on their changeups: the Royals (A.J. Causey, Tommy Molsky and L.P. Langevin), Mets (Ethan Lanthier, Will Watson and Jaxon Jelkin), Yankees (Bryce Cunningham and Gage Ziehl) Twins (Jakob Hall and Jacob Kisting) Astros (Parker Smith and Bryce Mayer) and Rays (Nate Knowles and Janzen Keisel).
The Cubs Went After College Hitters With Top-End Exit Velocities
Of the 71 college hitters drafted with a 90th percentile exit velocity exceeding 107 mph, five went to the Cubs. The leader of that group is first rounder Cam Smith, whose 111.3 mph 90th percentile EV ranked among the leaders in college baseball. He’s followed by 19th rounder Owen Ayers, seventh rounder Ivan Brethowr, second rounder Cole Mathis and eighth rounder Edgar Alvarez. The clarity of the Cubs model-driven approach is clear to see, as this group of higher EV hitters also boasted zone contact rates above 80% and chase rates of 25% or lower. The Cubs clearly value offensive profiles defined by power, contact and approach.
The Marlins Value Bat-To-Ball Skills
Looking at college hitters with contact rates of 80% or higher, it’s noteworthy that the Marlins ended up with seven college hitters exceeding that threshold: Connor Caskenette, Fenwick Trimble, Eric Rataczak, Dub Gleed, Gage Miller, Michael Snyder and Micah McDowell. This group shows some of the strongest plate skills of anyone in the class, as they all have low chase rates in addition to strong bat-to-ball metrics. Anyone who’s watched the Marlins in recent seasons shouldn’t be surprised to see the team continue to target these skills.
The Athletics, Tigers and Reds Prioritize Different Types Of Plate Discipline
Though the Athletics, Tigers and Reds each drafted five players with chase rates of 23% or below those three teams showed that their ideal hitter archetype still seems to differ. The Tigers’ emphasis was more on a combination of plate skills (contact and swing decisions), while the Reds valued strong EVs and chase rates with less concern for bat-to-ball skills. Oakland, meanwhile, targeted a more well-rounded group that met a combined threshold of EV, chase and contact (though fourth rounder Rodney Green has had his struggles with contact).
Barrell Rates Less Of A Concern For The Nationals At The Top Of The Draft
Through the top seven rounds, the college hitters with the two lowest barrel rates (Kevin Bazzell and Randal Diaz) each went to the Nationals. This is in line with what we’ve seen from Washington at the major league level, as the team has as the fifth-lowest strikeout rate in the major leagues at with the third-lowest isolated slugging.
