10 Standout Debuts From Hitters In The 2024 MLB Draft Class
Image credit: Josh Kuroda-Grauer (Photo by Bill Mitchell)
With the 2024 regular season over, it’s a great time to take look at reports on 10 draftees from the 2024 draft class who had standout professional debuts.
With this exercise, it’s always worth mentioning a small sample size caveat, as well as the fact that many players have just played more baseball this year than at any other point in their careers previously. That said, we now have more detailed, process-oriented stats that could perhaps illuminate interesting elements of a player’s profile.
Specifically, we are looking at five statistics to gauge contact skills, swing decisions and power: miss rate, zone miss rate, chase rate, 90th-percentile exit velocity and max exit velocity. We have data for 158 debut players in these categories. Here is that player pool’s average in each category for added context:
- Miss%: 25.64%
- zMiss%: 17.83%
- Chase%: 24.02%
- 90th EV: 100.7 mph
- Max EV: 106.1 mph
There were 12 players with at least 50 plate appearances who were above-average in each category. They are included in the table below, which is sorted by 90th-percentile exit velocity:
| pick | player | org. | xw0bacon | miss% | zmiss% | chase% | 90th ev | max ev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Nick Kurtz | OAK | 0.507 | 22.50% | 14.30% | 20.50% | 109.4 | 113.4 |
| 14 | Cam Smith | CHC | 0.397 | 22.90% | 15.70% | 23.00% | 106 | 111.4 |
| 7 | JJ Wetherholt | STL | 0.285 | 19.20% | 17.60% | 13.00% | 105.3 | 109.2 |
| 223 | Joseph Sullivan | HOU | 0.293 | 14.10% | 8.00% | 13.10% | 105.1 | 109.7 |
| 178 | Robert Hipwell | SFG | 0.463 | 22.80% | 16.90% | 11.30% | 103 | 107.4 |
| 31 | Ryan Waldschmidt | ARI | 0.321 | 15.00% | 6.80% | 15.50% | 102.8 | 108.8 |
| 351 | Ian Petrutz | STL | 0.325 | 18.40% | 12.60% | 21.60% | 101.8 | 110.1 |
| 61 | Ethan Anderson | BAL | 0.265 | 22.50% | 16.70% | 16.30% | 101.6 | 107.8 |
| 241 | Tyler Wilson | NYY | 0.248 | 19.00% | 12.20% | 21.00% | 101.6 | 109.2 |
| 159 | Caden Kendle | MIN | 0.235 | 18.60% | 8.50% | 17.70% | 101.2 | 109.9 |
| 58 | Émilien Pitre | TBR | 0.285 | 20.90% | 14.90% | 21.40% | 101.1 | 107.5 |
| 463 | Drew Vogel | HOU | 0.202 | 20.70% | 13.80% | 13.80% | 101.1 | 106.6 |
Top 10 Hitter Debuts For 2024
Cam Smith, 3B, Cubs
Age: 21
Highest Level: Double-A
Smith led all debut hitters with 36 hits, seven home runs and a 1.005 OPS that was tops among all batters with at least 100 plate appearances. The 14th overall pick began his pro season with Low-A Myrtle Beach but quickly jumped to High-A South Bend and then finally Double-A Tennessee.
Across all three levels, Smith slashed .313/.396/.609 to go with 16 extra-base hits and terrific batted ball data alongside surface-level stats. His 106 mph 90th-percentile exit velocity was good for ninth-best among the 158-debut player pool. Among players with at least 100 plate appearances, that mark was fourth-best behind only Jac Caglianone (109.2), Charlie Condon (107.6) and Aaron Parker (106.4).
Smith managed that sort of impact while making plenty of contact overall (22.9% miss), tons of contact inside the zone (15.7% in-zone miss) and showing solid swing decisions (23% chase rate).
Nick Kurtz, 1B, Athletics
Age: 21
Highest Level: Double-A
Kurtz ranked as the No. 8 prospect in the class thanks to one of the most well-rounded offensive profiles in the country. He delivered on that pre-draft evaluation by dominating pro competition in the limited playing time he received before a hamstring strain ended his season after just 12 games.
He slashed .368/.520/.763 with four home runs and three doubles between Low-A and Double-A, logging more walks (12) than strikeouts (10). His 109.4 mph 90th-percentile exit velocity was the best of all debut hitters, and his 113.4 mph max exit velocity was second to only Caglianone.
His production on contact, as measured by xwOBAcon, was the best of any hitter with multiple plate appearances. He hammered fastballs, used the entire field with authority and generally lived up to his pre-draft billing as an advanced and powerful hitter. Kurtz’s big question mark at this point seems to be health. Staying on the field in 2025 for his first full pro season will be key.
JJ Wetherholt, SS, Cardinals
Age: 21
Highest Level: Low-A
We called Wetherholt one of the best values in the 2024 draft after he slipped to the Cardinals with the seventh overall pick. The early returns have been strong for him, though he did spend his entire pro debut as a 21-year-old premium college bat with Low-A Palm Beach.
His combination of impact ability and keen batting eye stands out from Wetherholt’s pro debut. Among hitters with at least 50 plate appearances, he was one of just two players (along with Joseph Sullivan) with a sub 15% chase rate and a 90th-percentile exit velocity greater than 105 mph.
Overall, Wetherholt hit .295/.405/.400 with 16 walks to 15 strikeouts, two homers and five doubles while reaching base in all but one game of his 34-game debut. He began heating up even more at the end of the season in September when he slashed .468/.528/.702 in 11 games with seven multi-hit efforts and six of his seven extra-base hits. Wetherholt played all his games in the field at shortstop, where he looked fine at the position.
Joseph Sullivan, OF, Astros
Age: 21
Highest Level: Low-A
As mentioned above, Sullivan joined Wetherholt with one of the best combinations of impact and batting eye among 2024 debut hitters. A seventh round pick by the Astros, Sullivan ranked as the No. 277 player in the draft class and stood out for his speed and willingness to take a walk at the plate.
He played 20 games with Low-A Fayetteville and maintained those on-base skills with a .250/.416/.324 slash line and more walks (13) than strikeouts (11) while playing all three outfield positions. Sullivan has a crouched stance and hit the ball on the ground at a high clip in his debut (47.4% groundball rate), but he still checked plenty of boxes in terms of contact and exit velocities.
Josh Kuroda-Grauer, SS, Athletics
Age: 21
Highest Level: Triple-A
Kuroda-Grauer was one of just three players who logged time at the Triple-A level during their pro debut this summer (along with Rockies 17th rounder Nolan Clifford and Rangers 14th rounder Ben Hartl). He slashed .324/.421/.343 across three levels and was tied for second among debut hitters behind Cam Smith with 35 total hits.
Kuroda-Grauer showed a tendency to expand the zone a bit too frequently, but he still walked more than he struck out and continued to make plenty of contact. His 7.3% in-zone contact rate was fifth-best among the 147 hitters with at least 20 plate appearances, and his overall 11.1% miss rate was second-best of that same pool of players.
While Kuroda-Grauer has a reputation as a contact hitter and never hit more than six home runs in a single season with Rutgers in his college career, his 110 mph max exit velocity in his pro debut was an encouraging sign of the sort of raw power that could be lurking for him.
Christian Moore, 2B, Angels
Age: 21
Highest Level: Double-A
Moore was one of the most electric hitters of this draft class, and he went on an early power binge that led to six home runs in his first eight pro games. True to form, the Angels were extremely aggressive in pushing Moore up the minor league ladder. He played just two games with Low-A Inland Empire before earning a promotion to Double-A Rocket City. Overall in his 25-game debut, Moore slashed .347/.400/.584 and was second among all debut hitters with six home runs and 59 total bases.
Moore produced big exit velocity numbers with a wood bat. His 112.6 mph max exit velocity was the fourth-best mark of 158 debut hitters and his 105 mph 90th-percentile exit velocity was good for 17th-best.
Contact and swing decisions will be questions for Moore moving forward. Despite cutting his strikeout rate significantly during his draft year with Tennessee, Moore posted a 20.2% strikeout rate in his college career and saw below-average marks in miss rate (34.4%), zone miss rate (28.1%) and chase rate (29.2%) in his debut. There’s plenty of impact potential here, but he’ll need to improve the 29:9 strikeout-to-walk rate.
Braylon Payne, OF, Brewers
Age: 17
Highest Level: Low-A
Payne is the lone high school representative on this list, and he gets here by way of just four games in which he hit .438/.526/.625 with three walks and three strikeouts. In an exercise dominated by small sample sizes, Payne’s is admittedly tiny, but he still performed well in the time he was given and has some interesting batted-ball data worth mentioning.
His 19.5% chase rate is a solid mark for a 17-year-old facing pro pitching for the first time, but even more impressive are his exit velocity numbers. Payne’s 110.2 mph max exit velocity was the best of any high school draftee and good for 13th-best among 158 total players. That would be a good mark for any prep hitter, but it is a great number for a still-developing center field profile who had a reputation as a contact-over-power lefthanded bat.
Sam Antonacci, 2B/3B, White Sox
Age: 21
Highest Level: Low-A
Antonacci is a contact savant who developed a reputation for having great bat-to-ball skills and a keen batting eye as an amateur. That continued to be the case in his 23-game debut with Low-A Kannapolis, where he slashed .333/.471/.432 with 17 walks, 13 strikeouts and a 10.5% miss rate that was best among all 147 debut hitters with at least 20 plate appearances.
His 15.7% chase rate was also an above-average number, suggesting an offensive profile that will be primarily driven via contact and on-base skills. Antonacci’s power and exit velocity numbers are below-average, and he doesn’t have the sort of physical projection to dream on a ton, which will put pressure on his defensive profile.
He’s played shortstop in the past but was an everyday third baseman for Coastal Carolina last spring. In his pro debut, Antonacci split time at second base (95.2 innings) and third base (72.2 innings).
Ian Petrutz, OF, Cardinals
Age: 21
Highest Level: Low-A
Petrutz missed out on the BA 500 entirely in the 2024 draft class and was signed by the Cardinals in the 12th round after a strong season with Alabama. He played 28 games as a 21-year-old with Low-A Palm Beach and slashed .344/.483/.433 with six doubles, five stolen bases and more walks (17) than strikeouts (10).
He showed a fairly well-rounded batted ball profile in that debut, with above-average marks in contact, zone contact, chase rate and max exit velocity. The only below-average metric of the main five we considered was 90th-percentile exit velocity, which checked in at 101.8 mph.
Perhaps getting the ball in the air a bit more in the future will allow his top-end power to play more in games. His groundball rate in this stretch was 51.9%, good for the 26th-highest among 147 draftees with at least 20 plate appearances.
Robert Hipwell, 3B, Giants
Age: 21
Highest Level: Low-A
Hipwell was a bit of a draft conundrum in the 2024 class. He ranked as the No. 157 prospect, and, while scouts raved about his offensive upside, he only played in 18 games after serving a suspension for half the season with Santa Clara.
His dashboard numbers in a 29-game debut with Low-A San Jose don’t jump off the page, either: .196/.360/.402 with 40 strikeouts and a 29.4% strikeout rate.
Under the hood things look much more exciting. He was above-average in all five metrics, and his 11.3% chase rate was the best mark of any debut hitter with at least 20 plate appearances. Getting on base isn’t a new phenomenon for Hipwell. He posted 20%+ walk rates in each of his final two seasons with Santa Clara and owns a career 21% college walk rate. His batting eye, raw power and ability to elevate could lead to a strong OBP/HR combination for the sixth rounder, who spent all his time in the field at third base.
