10 Pitching Prospects With Changeups That Missed The Most Bats In 2024

Luis Gastelum, RHP, Cardinals 

Swinging Strike Rate: 30.4% 

Signed out of Mexico in April 2023, Gastelum dominated over 30 appearances with Low-A Palm Beach this year. The 23-year-old righthander pitched exclusively as a reliever in 2024, and over his 30 outings, Gastelum went for four or more outs 19 times. Gastelum’s arsenal doesn’t jump off the page from a stuff perspective, as he sits 91-93 mph on a fastball with two different shapes. He throws his changeup 48% of the time and generates a high rate of swings (51.9%) and, of course, whiffs (58.6%) with it. The pitch sits 82-84 mph with negative IVB and over 15 inches of run on average. It has around a 10 mph difference off of his fastball and more than a -2 degree difference in vertical approach angle. Those are both attributes than tend to lead to successful outcomes, but it’s reasonable to question how Gastelum’s stuff plays as he moves to higher levels.

Parker Messick, LHP, Guardians

Swinging Strike Rate: 29.5%

A star for Florida State as a collegiate, Messick has continued to experience success as a professional. Over 26 starts split between High-A and Double-A, Messick pitched to a 2.83 ERA, 3.08 FIP, 1.14 WHIP with 165 strikeouts against 44 walks across 133.2 innings. Messick’s fastball sits just 91-93 mph, but he generates an above-average amount of ride for his release height, helping the pitch play up. Messick’s changeup is his primary secondary pitch, and he uses it effectively, generating lots of swings (56.4%) and chases (45.2%). He has around a nine mph delta between his average fastball and his changeup, and he gets good vertical separation with more than three degrees between his fastball vertical approach angle and his changeup. 

Marquis Grissom Jr., RHP, Nationals

Swinging Strike Rate: 28.7%

The son of former MLB all-star Marquis Grissom, the young righthander was a 13th round pick out of Georgia Tech in 2022. Grissom has worked exclusively as a reliever as a professional, making 41 appearances across High-A and Double-A in 2024. Over 53 innings, Grissom struck out 25.8% of batters he faced while walking just six percent. Grissom held opponents to a .214 batting average using his changeup as his go-to pitch. In 2024, Grissom threw his change nearly as often as his fastball to great results, generating a high rate of swings (58.1%)  and lots of whiffs (49.5%) despite the higher usage. Grissom’s changeup mimics the shape of his fastball with a 10 mph difference in velocity. 

Omar Cruz, LHP, Padres

Swinging Strike Rate: 28.5%

Cruz was sent to the Pirates as a part of the Joe Musgrove trade to San Diego back in 2021, and he later returned to the Padres in the minor league portion of the 2023 Rule 5 Draft. Cruz spent the 2024 season split between Double-A and Triple-A working in a multi-inning relief role. Over 86.1 inning, he pitched to a 3.96 ERA and 2.96 FIP while striking out 32.3% of batters and walking 9.9%. Cruz’s fastball sits 92-93 mph with average rise and movement, but his changeup has an 11 mph difference in average velocity and good vertical separation. As one might expect, Cruz’s changeup generates a high rate of swings (59.5%) and chases (44.7%). 

Samuel Perez, LHP, Twins 

Swinging Strike Rate: 28.4%

After being released by the Angels in March 2021, Perez signed as a minor league free agent with the Twins a few months later. He has re-signed with the Twins three times as a minor league free agent since then and is coming off his best season as a professional. Perez pitched 72.1 innings across 38 appearances in 2024, logging a 2.49 ERA with 82 strikeouts to 24 walks. He has well below-average stuff, sitting just 84-86 mph on his fastball, so he instead throws a heavy diet of changeups and sliders. Perez’s changeup was a weapon this season, generating lots of swings (56%) and misses (50.7%). The pitch sits 77-78 mph and generates, on average, 16 inches of armside run. Time will tell if Perez can get by with a 20-grade fastball, but his changeup produced great results in 2024. 

Bradgley Rodriguez, RHP, Padres

Swinging Strike Rate: 28.3%

Signed out of Venezuela in January 2021, Rodriguez has serious firepower across his arsenal. His fastball sits 97-98 mph and was up to 101 mph in 2024. While his heater will light up the radar gun, it’s his changeup that proved to be his best pitch in 2024, a season in which experienced a great deal of success and jumped three levels of the minors, reaching Double-A. He struck out 29.5% of the batters he faced, producing a 2.64 ERA and a 3.23 FIP over 61.1 innings. Rodriguez’s changeup was behind much of that success, generating lots of whiffs, particularly in the strike zone. With a high-90s fastball and change that plays well off of it, Rodriguez has the equipment for a high-leverage reliever role one day. 

Carson Whisenhunt, LHP, Giants 

Swinging Strike Rate: 27.3%

Highly touted out of East Carolina for his plus changeup, Whisenhunt has continued to find success on the pitch as a professional. He spent nearly the entirety of his 2024 season with Triple-A Sacramento, enduring the typical trials and tribulations of the Pacific Coast League. Despite bad surface numbers, Whisenhunt missed lots of bats in 2024, producing a 28.4% strikeout rate. Whisenhunt’s changeup was his best bat-misser, generating swings (56.6%), whiffs (48.3%) and chases (43.8%) and against the pitch. 

Nico Zeglin, RHP, Cubs

Swinging Strike Rate: 27%

Signed by the Cubs in late April out of the Mexican League, Zeglin had bounced around a bit as a collegiate player, spending time at College of San Mateo (JC) before pitching two years at Gonzaga and spending a graduate transfer season with Long Beach State. Zeglin made a strong first impression in affiliated ball, pitching to a 0.95 ERA with 90 strikeouts against 16 walks. He held opponents to a batting average of .164 against and a 0.82 WHIP. Zeglin doesn’t have overpowering stuff, sitting just 90-92 mph on his four-seam fastball, but his changeup plays well off the pitch due to a 10 mph velocity difference and nearly a -2.5 degree approach angle difference.

Jackson Humphries, LHP, Guardians 

Swinging Strike Rate: 27% 

A high school lefthander the Guardians signed in the 8th round of the 2022 draft for $600,000, Humphries had his best season as a professional in 2024, making 23 starts for Low-A Lynchburg and striking out 29.1% of batters faced. Humphries still struggles with command, however, and he walked 12.3% of batters, which led to some struggles at times. Humphries’ fastball sits 89-90 mph but has above-average vertical break from a higher release point. While Humphries’ changeup doesn’t have much vertical separation off the fastball, it does have a nearly 10 mph difference in velocity and 14-15 inches of armside run. This allowed Humphries to generate a ton of whiffs against the pitch, generating them at a rate of 67.2% of all swings. 

Zach Penrod, LHP, Red Sox 

Swinging Strike Rate: 26.9%

Kudos to Boston’s scouting for signing Penrod out of independent ball back in 2023. He pitched well across the upper minors in 2024 and earned his first major league callup on September 14. He sat 94-95 mph in his brief major league stint, mixing his slider and changeup. Penrod’s change saw a 30.2% usage rate in the majors and graded out as an average pitch. Against minor league hitters, the pitch dominated in 2024, generating swings (51.4%), misses (52.4%) and chases (35.8%). Penrod’s three distinct pitch shapes all play well off of each other with distinctive movement. He should fill a valuable role with the Red Sox next season, as he can let it fly in short stints or provide needed innings when called upon.