10 MLB Draft Prospects To Know After Two Weeks Of College Baseball
Image credit: Josh Hartle (Photo by Eddie Kelly / ProLook Photos)
We’re two weeks into college baseball and there’s plenty to discuss. Today, we’ll look into 10 college players who are creating some buzz that may have significant implications on the draft board already.
The highlights include:
- A top-of-the-class case for Georgia’s Charlie Condon
- Who is the top LHP in the class?
- Iowa RHP Brody Brecht has made a mechanical tweak
Charlie Condon, OF/1B, Georgia
If you haven’t thought of Charlie Condon as a potential 1-1 pick, it’s time to start considering the idea.
The 2023 Freshman of the Year is off to a scorching start in 2024. Through his first seven games, he has multi-hit games in each and is slashing .643/.694/.1.179 with three home runs, one triple, four doubles and six walks to just three strikeouts.
Each of his home runs were against non-competitive off-speed offerings that hung over the plate. But he’s done exactly what he’s needed to against those pitches while showing in-game power to both fields, staying within the strike zone on his swings and showing no issues with the handful of 92-plus mph fastballs he’s seen so far this spring.
Scouts believe Condon has 70-grade game power potential, and if that’s paired with a plus hit tool, there’s no real reason why he can’t be considered right alongside Wake Forest first baseman Nick Kurtz at the very top of the class.
While Kurtz does have an edge as a lefthanded hitter, Condon can offer more defensive versatility and has already gotten time at third base, first base and left field in 2024. While he ultimately projects best as a corner outfielder, Condon has held his own at the hot corner and has already shown off more athleticism than scouts expected to see from him. Against UNC Asheville, he made a slick catch while falling over the fence in foul territory in left field.
As a redshirt* sophomore, Condon will have less of a resume than others in the class, but through his first 63 games between 2023 and 2024, he has been an elite hitter with a .416/.510/.845 slash line, 28 home runs and 14 doubles. He’s currently ranked No. 8 in the class and that feels low by at least three spots.
*Editor’s note: A previous version of this story referred to Condon as a draft-eligible sophomore. He is in fact a redshirt sophomore.
Vance Honeycutt, OF, UNC
Like Condon, Honeycutt is a top-of-the-class college hitter who’s off to a hot start and already has five home runs in his first seven games of the season. Unlike Condon, however, Honeycutt is looking to put together his first .300-plus season together in 2024 and has a career .280/.415/.609 batting line in 121 games despite impressive power and stolen-base production and double-plus defense in center field.
There is a notable change in Honeycutt’s offensive setup that is worth noting. Below you can see his 2023 (top) pre-pitch stance compared to his 2024 (bottom) setup:
His posture is different with a more upright and even stance this year compared to a slightly more athletic crouched and open setup in 2023. He also has the bat head at a less extreme angle, which leads to slightly less pronounced bat tip in his hand load, though his stride, hands and swing itself look fairly similar year-over-year.
Scouts will be bearing down significantly on Honeycutt’s pure hitting ability this season, as that is the most glaring weakness of his otherwise impressive toolset. I attempted to do the same thing with a few of Honeycutt’s early-season games, and despite his early power production, I am often left wondering if Honeycutt isn’t simply a below-average hitter who guesses too frequently at the plate.
He has a tendency to pull out heavily with his lower half, which leaves him exposed on the outer third and against secondaries in general. This was specifically a problem against Trey Yesavage last Friday night in the second inning when Honeycutt had runners on second and third with one out:
Yesavage started the at-bat with an 84-mph changeup down and in that Honeycutt swung out in front of. In an 0-1 count, Yesavage placed an 88-mph slider with precision down and to his glove side in the corner of the zone and Honeycutt was again out in front whiffing and looking like he wanted to pull the ball. Ahead 0-2, Yesavage threw an 84-mph changeup low and away that Honeycutt lunged at but managed to check his swing. At 1-2, Yesavage elevated with a 95-mph fastball above the zone for a ball. At 2-2, Yesavage went back to the changeup low and away, but Honeycutt did a better job spitting on the pitch. In a full count, Yesavage threw an 88-mph slider middle-middle that entirely locked Honeycutt up for strike three.
It’s extremely early, but Honeycutt has still shown the same contact and pitch recognition issues against breaking stuff and off-speed offerings that have plagued him in the past. If he’s hitting 25 homers and stealing 30 bases while catching everything in a one-mile radius in center field, perhaps that ultimately won’t be a dealbreaker. But it remains a question to watch throughout the season.
Hagen Smith, LHP, Arkansas
After pitching just one inning in his season debut against James Madison, Smith dominated Oregon State last weekend. He struck out 17 of the 22 batters he faced in six shutout innings and needed just 78 pitches to do so, while averaging nearly 97 mph with a fastball that touched 100, while making hitters look silly with a plus slider.
Smith entered the season with a reputation as an effectively wild starter who had some reliever question marks, but in this outing he did an excellent job getting ahead in counts with his fastball and using his slider as a consistent weapon both within the zone and as a chase pitch out of it. He threw 59 of his 78 pitches for strikes (75.6%) and got ahead in the count against 13 of the 22 batters he faced.
Listed at 6-foot-3, 225 pounds, Smith has always presented a strong and physical presence on the bump, but he looks noticeably stronger and more physical early in 2024 with more mass packed onto his lower half and more definition in his arms and shoulders. He works from the first-base side of the rubber and throws from a simple and direct delivery that has a bit less effort and recoil so far in 2024 than 2023. He throws with a short arm action that features little depth in his takeback before firing with great arm speed with a lower three-quarters arm slot and a slightly open stride that gets him directly back in line to the plate.
Smith pitched in the 95-100 mph range in the first three innings and maintained his velocity nicely, though he was more in the 94-98 mph range in his final three frames. The fastball was a clear plus offering and was used both to establish the zone, set up his slider and generate eight whiffs—five of which came at the top of the zone or just off the plate, and three of which came above the zone.
His 83-88 mph slider was a consistently plus offering and swing-and-miss pitch to both lefties and righties. It has a fastball look immediately out of his hand before featuring late and sharp biting action with more horizontal movement to the glove side, but consistently hard tilt that created whiffs in the zone and below it. In total, he generated 17 whiffs with the slider and used the pitch to finish off 15 of his 17 strikeouts.
Smith flashed an 88-89 mph changeup against righthanders three times in this outing, though it was quite a bit behind his fastball/slider combo. There’s a tick of fading life that could make it a serviceable third pitch eventually, but he missed with it to his arm side here.
When Smith is locked in and throwing strikes, it’s difficult to find a lefthander in the class who can match him. Ultimately, he’ll need to show this peak version of himself more consistently to prove to scouts he’s a bonafide starter with elite pure stuff. Smith’s arm looks a bit quicker than a year ago, his delivery looks a touch more clean and his fastball velocity is up through his first two starts in 2024 compared to his 2023 average. He’s currently averaging 96.4 mph on his fastball compared to his 93-mph average in 2023—though in his first two starts in 2023 he sat at 95.
Josh Hartle, LHP, Wake Forest
Hartle entered the season as the de facto—but not consensus—top pitching prospect in the class, but didn’t look like his typical self in his second start of the season. While Hartle has posted a 1.54 ERA and allowed just a pair of earned runs in 11.2 innings, he has not yet been the supreme command lefty he’s earned a reputation for over the last three years.
Against Dayton on Friday, Hartle started the game with a four-pitch walk and issued two walks and hit two batters in six innings, while missing the zone more with all his pitches compared to a week one start against Fordham. It was only the second game of his Wake Forest career where he’s hit two batters in a single game.
In this outing, Hartle yanked his low-90s fastball and missed with it to the glove side consistently, and he also struggled to consistently get on top of a low-80s curveball and work that pitch in the zone. An upper-80s cutter was the best in-zone pitch for Hartle in this outing, and the lone pitch he used to attack the inner rail against righthanded hitters. This usage makes sense for Hartle, as his sinking fastball seems to play better down in the zone and isn’t really a challenge pitch up and in. He allowed one home run in this game and it came on an elevated 92-mph fastball.
While Hartle was consistently working in jams in this look, he does have the sort of repertoire to help him get out of them with weak ground ball contact, especially with the cutter and a mid-80s changeup.
Jonathan Santucci, LHP, Duke
Santucci hasn’t allowed a run in his first two starts of the season. Against Indiana and Northwestern, he has 17 strikeouts and five walks in 11 innings, and has made his own case as the top lefthanded pitcher in the class.
Santucci’s slider has been tremendous early this season, and after throwing it about half the time in his first start against Indiana, he ratcheted up its usage to 71% in his second start against Northwestern. It’s not shocking to see why, as he used the pitch to establish the zone, generate whiffs within it and get chases below it. He throws the slider in the mid 80s with plenty of conviction, and the pitch features solid power, good horizontal movement and late tilt as well giving it a biting two-plane break at its best.
In total, Santucci generated 22 whiffs with his slider and it looked like a real plus offering throughout. He frequently pitched backwards off the slider and used it to get ahead in the count and set up a mid-90s fastball that he used to attack the zone and search for chases above it.
Santucci has largely shelved a changeup in his first two outings, though that pitch has looked like a potential above-average offering as well, but moving forward it would be nice to see him more effectively command his fastball—which would in turn make an already lethal slider more… lethal. Santucci’s slider usage as the season progresses will be interesting to track. Through two starts, he has thrown 61% sliders, 38% fastballs and just 1% changeups.
Billy Amick, 3B, Tennessee
Amick entered the season as one of the more powerful college hitters in the class, and graded out well in terms of 90th percentile exit velocity in 2023, though his contact and chase rates left a bit to be desired.
Through eight games with Tennessee this spring, Amick has flashed the big-time power he possesses and is tied for the team lead with three homers, while slashing .281/.343/.656 with seven strikeouts and three walks.
Amick swings with intent and does a great job firing his hands through the zone with above-average bat speed and plenty of strength that comes from a maxed out 6-foot-1, 217-pound frame. The bat path is clean and slightly uphill and leads to plenty of damage in the air, and he has the strength to mishit balls out of the park if he’s late or slightly under the ball—as was the case when he homered down the right-field line against a 93-mph Kyle Robinson fastball in the season opener.
While Amick has shown the ability to make adjustments to breaking pitches within at-bats, the slider so far this season has been something of a bugaboo. He’ll need to sharpen his recognition of the pitch and do a more consistent job laying off in order to hit for average and maximize his raw power in-game.
While Amick looks like a power-over-hit, offense-forward corner profile, he has done a solid job at the hot corner in the first two weeks of the season. He made one difficult backhand scoop while moving toward the third-base line before throwing across his body in foul territory with solid accuracy and power to first base on opening weekend. He’s converted all of his chances so far and has more than enough arm to stick at the position.
Brody Brecht, RHP, Iowa
Brecht entered the season with some of the most anticipation in the 2024 class given his tremendous arm talent and the expectations that came with his first off-season dedicated to baseball training since dropping football.
Through two starts, he has overpowered hitters at Seton Hall and Auburn with his pure stuff and struck out 22 of the 46 batters he’s faced (47.8 K%), but he has also walked 10 batters in just 10.1 innings—a 21.7% walk rate.
While Brecht has worked on multiple new pitches this offseason—a splitter and a different slider variation—what jumped out to me after seeing his first start was mechanical. Below you can see his 2023 delivery (top) at the deepest point of his arm stroke compared to the same point in 2024 (bottom):
Brecht has added a bit of length to his arm action in the back and gets more of a plunging action in his arm stroke. He brings the ball both closer to the ground and further behind him in the delivery.
So far, this tweak hasn’t seemed to lead to any notable improvements in command, but I did ask Iowa pitching coach Sean McGrath before the season if there was anything to the idea that Brecht’s arm action was so fast and so compact that made it difficult for him to time up his release point consistently. Perhaps the change will allow him to better feel his body in space at different points in the delivery and get to a more consistent release point on release.
Again, the strikes have not looked great yet, and he needs to do a better job locating to his arm side with his entire arsenal, but it’s a clear tweak to his operation and something worth monitoring as we get further into the season.
Thatcher Hurd, RHP, LSU
Thatcher Hurd is a conundrum.
He looks the part of a big league pitcher. Hurd has a great pitcher’s build with a strong and lean 6-foot-4, 230-pound frame. He works with a fluid delivery and clean arm action that features little in the way of effort or recoil in his landing with a balanced finish, and he has the stuff to match with a fastball that has averaged 94-95 and touched 97 this season, with two high-spin breaking balls to complement it.
But where are the results? He’s struggled through two starts against VMI and Stony Brook so far this season. Against VMI, he threw 2.2 innings and allowed five hits and four earned runs, then most recently against Stony Brook, he pitched 4.1 innings, allowed six hits and three earned runs, while striking out eight and walking four.
When he’s on, he looks the part of a first-round pitcher. He worked a 1-2-3 first inning against Stony Brook, where he attacked the zone with his fastball to get ahead in counts, and used his breaking stuff as chase pitches off the plate to his glove side and to lock up hitters with looking strikes inside the zone.
Too frequently, though, Hurd is not on. His fastball command is inconsistent, and he either gets behind in counts by spraying the pitch around the zone or leaves his heater over the heart of the plate where it plays down from its velocity and gets hit. When he’s not landing his fastball for strikes, hitters are more able to hold back against his mid-80s slider and lower-80s curveball—both of which have been more effective chase pitches than in-zone swing-and-miss offerings so far this season. The slider lacks tilt when he leaves it up and over the plate and can get hit around if he’s not spotting it effectively.
Additionally, Hurd seems to lack a putaway pitch for lefthanded hitters—who have produced an .826 OPS against him in his college career compared to a .604 OPS vs. righties—and he rarely mixes in a changeup and hasn’t used one yet this season.
Cam Smith, 3B, Florida State
Smith is riding a career-best 10-game hitting streak that dates back to the 2023 season through FSU’s first six games in 2024. It’s probably a bit too early to know if Smith’s approach adjustments from the Cape Cod League last summer are here to stay this spring, but the early returns are promising.
He’s hitting .440/.548/.480 with one double, four walks and three strikeouts, and has made more contact and better swing decisions overall—though we’ll need to see how that approach is looking once ACC play kicks off.
Smith is still employing more of a crouched and grounded setup in the box compared to his more upright stance in 2023, and his leg lift is smaller. He’s also continued to ditch the leg lift entirely in two-strike counts, which is another difference from his 2023 spring season, and he instead opts for a slight heel raise with his front foot, while keeping his toe in contact with the ground through his load. This all leads to a simpler swing with fewer moving parts and so far has helped him find more contact—he’s managed an 87% contact rate with five games of data so far in 2024 compared to a 71% contact rate in 2023.
While the early returns for his contact ability are solid, Smith could still improve his timing at the plate and do a better job getting his hands extended on pitches he should be hitting for impact to the pull side. There have been a few occasions where he’s late getting into launch position, which leaves his barrel further behind than he would probably like on pitches on the inner half that wind up getting fileted for soft singles to the right-center gap.
AJ Russell, RHP, Tennessee (2025 class)
The entirety of this piece has focused on 2024-eligible draft prospects, but let’s close it out with one fascinating arm from the 2025 class. Russell got the nod as Tennessee’s opening day starter against Texas Tech and he pitched brilliantly with 10 strikeouts and one walk in 4.1 innings.
A week later, Russell threw just three innings against Albany before he had to leave the start with side soreness, but he has shown one of the more unique fastballs in the country after just a start and a half.
Listed at 6-foot-6, 207 pounds, Russell has an ideal pitcher’s frame with plenty more room for strength gains in the future. He also throws a fastball that has averaged 94 and been up to 98 mph this season with remarkable ease. What takes his fastball to the next level is the fact that he drops down to a sidearm slot, which amplifies its velocity and creates tremendous swing-and-miss traits.
In his Texas Tech start, he used the pitch nearly 75% of the time and generated 22 whiffs after throwing the pitch 53 times. That was good for a 63% miss rate and 41.5% swinging strike rate—two elite numbers for a fastball even at the college level. On top of the above-average velocity and a release height just over five feet, Russell’s fastball features tremendous arm-side running life that simply makes the pitch overpowering. He can get whiffs in any section of the zone, above it and off it to the arm side, and it’s more than good enough to rely on more than 70% of the time at the college level.
The heater should be a carrying tool for him moving forward, but he could improve the consistency of his slider—which could be difficult for the same reasons that make his fastball good—which he gets around too often and doesn’t throw with enough conviction just yet.
Russell currently ranks as the No. 51 player in the 2025 class, but could move up quickly if he stays healthy and establishes himself as a starter this spring.
