10 Sleeper Complex League Prospects With Standout Statcast Data
Image credit: Ramon Ramirez (Photo by Bill Mitchell)
In an age where minor league game streams are widely available at every level, the complex leagues feel like the final frontier.
Year after year, unheralded breakouts with true All-Star upside emerge from the complex leagues, both domestic (Arizona and Florida) and abroad (Dominican Republic). Digging deep into the advanced Statcast data gives us the ability to more accurately pinpoint potential future stars based on their combination of skills.
Today, we’ll examine which prospects stand out when looking at the ‘big three’ areas of metric-based evaluation: impact (90th percentile exit velocity, xwOBAcon), contact (in-zone whiff rate, whiff rate) and swing decisions (chase rate). Doing so provides a baseline understanding of a player’s bat-to-ball skills, on-base ability and power.
Alessander De La Cruz, OF, Rockies
De La Cruz was born in Germany but raised in the Dominican Republic and signed there for $650,000 in January 2023. He is a DSL repeater, which has become more commonplace in recent seasons. After a solid showing as a 17-year-old, De La Cruz made an All-Star turn in 2024, hitting .318/.406/.542 with 24 extra base hits while going a perfect 13-for-13 in stolen base attempts. He hits the ball hard with a 106.8 mph 90th percentile EV and a max EV of 109.5 mph. It’s not empty power, either, as De La Cruz shows strong contact metrics with a 17.4% in-zone whiff and a 27.5% whiff rate overall. A 24.8% chase rate suggests there’s on-base ability, as well. De La Cruz will be one of the top names from the Dominican Summer League to come stateside in 2025.
Brailer Guerrero, OF, Rays
The Rays signed Guerrero out of Dominican Republic for $3.7 million, awarding him one of the top five bonuses in the 2023 international class. Limited to just seven games in his professional debut by a shoulder injury that required surgery that year, his 2024 season was also cut short due to lingering impact of the previous season’s shoulder injury. When active, Guerrero showed strong metrics, led by his .368 xwOBAcon. His power on impact is outlier, with a 105.4 mph 90th percentile EV and a max EV of 111.7 mph. Guerrero pairs his plus impact with a low in-zone whiff rate of 15.4% and a chase rate of 18.5%, meaning there’s bat-to-ball skills and on-base ability that will allow him to get to his impact. The fuzziest element of Guerrero’s future projection is his questionable medical history.
Ramon Ramirez, C, Royals
After an All-Star turn in the Dominican Summer League in 2023, Ramirez came stateside in 2024. The catcher hit .265/.379/.459 with 18 extra base hits across 49 games. Ramirez’s slashline stats were good, but it’s his underlying metrics that truly pop. He showed impact on contact with a .371 xwOBAcon and a 104.6 mph 90th percentile EV. While impact is the selling point on Ramirez’s his plate skills, his contact data is particularly outstanding, as he swung and missed in the zone at a rate of just 13.2% this year to go with a 72.5% in-zone swing rate. These metrics, when paired with his 26.5% chase rate, hint at a player that identifies balls and strikes at an above-average rate but doesn’t border on passivity. The combination of power, contact and approach make Ramirez a name to watch in 2025 when he makes his full-season debut.
Angel Guzman, 1B/OF, Giants
The Giants signed Guzman out of the Dominican Republic in January 2023 for just $62,500. So far, it looks like a potential steal, as Guzman has a potentially above-average set of offensive tools and polished skills, with a 14.8% zone miss rate and a 17.2% chase rate. A lower swing rate such as his (33.8%) is often a sign of passivity, but in a league like the DSL where strike-throwing is at a premium, it shows an ability to discern balls from strikes. While Guzman’s plate approach and bat-to-ball skills are key elements of his profile, his impact on contact is well above-average for age and level, and his 104.4 mph 90th percentile EV and .372 xwOBAcon highlight his ability to make consistent hard contact. With a defensive profile that projects at first base and left field, Guzman will have to continue to hit at a high level to project as a full-time regular.
Aroon Escobar, 2B/3B, Phillies
One of the best offensive performers in the Florida Complex League this season, Escobar hit .338/.495/.481 over 24 games. His 20.2% walk rate is backed by a 17.6% chase rate, showing his on-base skills are no fluke. Escobar shows strong bat-to-ball abilities, as well, with a 15.8% in-zone contact rate that highlights his truly-polished plate skills. His power also shows in the metrics thanks to a .387 xwOBAcon and 104.4 mph 90th percentile EV. He shows the ability to pull the ball consistently with a 39.1% pull rate and a knack for making airborne contact. Escobar should be one of the more exciting names to make the jump to a full-season level in 2025.
Jesus Made, SS, Brewers
The Brewers continue their winning streak on the international market with another emerging premium talent in Made. The shortstop combines polished plate skills with power projection and in-game production that bodes well for his future prospects. Made hit .331/.458/.554 in his pro debut and showed off power and speed. His underlying metrics are outstanding: a 10.2% in-zone miss rate, a 14.6% chase rate and a 104.2 mph 90th percentile exit velocity. This combination of bat-to-ball skills, approach and power hint at superstar potential for the 17-year-old Made. The most exciting name to make the jump stateside in 2025, it’s not out of the question that Made skips the Arizona Complex League entirely and starts at a full-season level next season.
Felnin Celesten, SS, Mariners
Over the last decade, the Mariners have hit on major international signings as frequently as anyone, and Celesten looks to be the next name to carry on that tradition. His durability has been the biggest issue, as he missed his professional debut in 2023 due to a hamstring strain and saw his 2024 season cut short due to a hamate injury that required surgery. When Celesten was on the field in the Arizona Complex League this season, however, he was outstanding, hitting .352/.431/.568 over 32 games. The under-the-hood numbers are strong, as well, with a 22.7% whiff rate, a 21.5% chase rate and a 103.8 mph 90th percentile EV. The combination of bat-to-ball skills, on-base ability and power could make Celesten into the next emerging talent in the Mariners system, and he should debut at a full-season level in 2025.
Brian Sanchez, OF, Yankees
Acquired by the Yankees in the Jake Bauers trade with the Brewers last November, the Venezuelan outfielder looks like a potential steal. In his stateside debut in the Florida Complex League, Sanchez hit .306/.394/.514. Those outstanding surface numbers are backed by his underlying data, as Sanchez shows average bat-to-ball skills with a 19.7% in-zone miss rate, a 20.9% chase rate and a 103.5 mph 90th percentile exit velocity. The bat-to-ball skills may well end up as fringe-average at peak, but his ability to discern balls and strikes and make hard contact consistently portend well for future success.
Edward Florentino, OF, Pirates
Signed in January 2024 out of the Dominican Republic, Florentino was selected as a DSL All-Star in his professional debut for hitting .260/.439/.459 over 49 games. The lefthanded-hitting 17-year-old has outstanding plate skill, as evidenced by a 14% in-zone miss rate and 18.5% chase rate. His combination of contact and approach pairs well with solidly above-average power that was showcased by a 103.3 mph 90th percentile EV. He shows a knack for making consistent hard contact, as well (41.1% hard-hit rate in 2024), making him an exciting name to come stateside in 2025.
Robin Ortiz, OF, Cubs
The Cubs signed Ortiz in January 2024, and he impressed in his professional debut this summer, hitting .276/.390/.403 over 45 games in the DSL. His primary calling card is his strong plate skills, which are backed by a 17.1% in-zone miss rate and 21.5% chase rate. Ortiz isn’t passive either, as shown by his 39.1% swing rate. Despite a lower slugging percentage, Ortiz does show traits that hint at power projection to come with a 48% line drive + flyball rate, a 90th percentile EV of 103.3 mph and 36.3% hard hit rate. It might take time for the profile to fully bake, but he’s an unheralded name to know heading into 2025.