10 Breakout And Sleeper Picks For The 2024 MLB Draft Class
Image credit: Michael Torres (Photo by Tom Dipace)
With college baseball kicking off in earnest this weekend, it’s time for a few predictions.
In this piece, I’ll highlight 10 players in the 2024 draft class who have a chance to breakout and move further up draft boards than where they are entering the season, or come from fully outside our current top 200 and make an impact on the draft in July.
Related: Top 200 MLB Draft Prospects
This is a non-exhaustive list and was created based on conversations with scouts, in-person live looks at players and examining various pieces of data at our disposal here at BA. I’ve specifically referred to breakouts and sleepers for this piece because some players below are already prominent and likely fit into day one draft considerations currently, while others could more realistically work their way up into a top-five round discussion.
I’ll plan to revisit this piece after the 2024 draft and evaluate how well or how poorly I did.
Garrett Shull, OF, Enid (Okla.) HS (No. 45)
Shull is a well-rounded hitter with solid bat speed from both sides of the plate and a chance to hit for both average and power. His offensive toolset places him as a top-50 prospect entering the season, but he could move up boards further if he can amplify his supplemental toolset. Shull does have above-average arm strength that could fit in either corner outfield spot nicely. If he comes out this spring as a better runner and gives himself a chance to profile as a center fielder, suddenly there are few holes to find in his profile.
Shull already had a well-developed and muscular frame during the 2023 showcase season. He’s not here because of any low-hanging fruit that could have come from a strong offseason in the weight room, but because of conviction in his offensive ability and a chance for him to move into first round consideration on draft day with slight improvements in his speed and fielding.
Carson Benge, OF/RHP, Oklahoma State (No. 60)
Benge is an intriguing prospect both as a hitter with power and a righthanded pitcher with a fastball that gets into the mid 90s. His two-way status gives him two bites at the up-arrow apple, but I have him here specifically because of his exciting offensive tools and some room for improvement with his batted ball profile to make the most of them.
Benge hits the ball plenty hard. He averaged a 91.7 mph exit velocity in 2023 and his 108.1-mph 90th percentile exit velocity places him along with some of the most impactful hitters in the class. Despite that power, Benge only homered seven times during the 2023 season and most of those homers went the opposite way to left field. There’s tons of movement in his swing which leads to late timing and if he does a better job getting the ball in the air (his ground ball rate was well north of 50%) to the pull side his home run numbers should follow.
Pierce George, RHP, Alabama (No. 95)
George is the sole player on this list who we have already tagged as a sleeper explicitly in his scouting report. There’s a chance we are too high on George already given the fact that he’s thrown just a pair of innings in his college career but we’re going with the scouts on this one—almost always an easy decision.
George wowed evaluators last fall with Alabama after transferring from Texas. He has a massive frame at 6-foot-6, 240 pounds and showed a pair of plus pitches between a 98-100 mph fastball with life and a hard upper-80s slider. If he shows that sort of stuff with any semblance of control throughout the spring he’ll have decision makers scrambling to see him.
Gage Jump, LHP, LSU (No. 96)
With Jump I am betting on a bounceback season and return to form after missing time thanks to Tommy John surgery. He has exceptional pedigree dating back to his prep days when he was viewed as a top-two round sort of talent and has a pair of coveted traits: he throws lefthanded and has a riding fastball that analysts love.
Jump has just 16.1 innings on his college resume and made just three starts with UCLA in 2022, but is expected to form one of the most talented rotations in the country in Baton Rouge alongside Thatcher Hurd and Luke Holman.
William Kirk, LHP, Ramsey (N.J.) HS (No. 102)
Kirk is a breakout candidate for many scouts in the country thanks to his uber-projectable frame and advanced touch and feel. He does a nice job attacking the top of the zone with his fastball and landing his curveball and changeup at the bottom of the zone. Scouts will have to wait a bit longer to see Kirk this spring, as New Jersey practices don’t get started until March and games don’t start until April, but if he comes out looking stronger and has taken steps forward with velocity his already appealing starter profile will look all the more appealing.
Aside from Cam Caminiti, the lefthanded high school pitching crop is fairly wide open, and Kirk is as well-positioned to move up the board with a strong spring as any player of that demographic.
Gavin Kash, 1B, Texas Tech (No. 118)
Kash provides big time power from the left side and is coming off a monster 2023 season with Texas Tech where he led the team and conference with 26 home runs. He can homer to all fields and provides plenty of thump, but currently there are some questions about Kash’s pure hitting ability.
He expands the zone frequently (33% chase rate in 2023) and swings and misses a bit too much overall. After a hot start in his first 32 games in 2023 when he slashed .397/.452/.794, Kash stumbled down the stretch in the second half and slashed .250/.327/.578 with worse swing decisions. I’m more bullish on him improving in that regard for 2024 and if he puts up a consistent offensive performance throughout the season it wouldn’t be surprising to see him factor into the day one conversation.
Jeremiah Jenkins, 1B, Maine (NR)
Jenkins’ improvements in hitting approach year-over-year with Maine, as well as standout raw power, make him a player to watch. He has an unorthodox hitting setup at the plate with a stiff, slightly closed and upright stance as well as a low handset tucked into his chest. He takes a late stride in his load before firing his hands through the zone, though he frequently keeps himself in a closed stance throughout the swing thanks to a stride towards the left side of the field.
In 2023 Jenkins slashed .362/.490/.749 with 21 home runs and 12 doubles. He lowered his strikeout rate from 18.8% to 14% and upped his walk rate from 10.6% to 15.6%. If he can replicate his swing decisions and continue to show power his offensive profile will appeal to teams—regardless of defensive profile or mechanical question marks.
Michael Torres, OF/LHP, Doral (Fla.) Academy HS (NR)
Torres has an extremely advanced feel for the game that stands out and is more impressive now than his physical toolset. He has solid feel to fill up the zone with an upper-80s fastball that gets to 90-91 from the left side and will mix in both a curveball and changeup. His pro upside is likely greater as a hitter thanks to a direct bat path and line-drive oriented swing that pairs nicely with a solid approach at the plate and an ability to use the entire field. Torres will either need to add more power to profile as a corner outfielder or add a bit of speed to ensure he can stick in center field and because of that there might be some teams who want to see him head to Miami and mash in the ACC.
If he comes out this spring stronger and/or faster, his feel for the game, hitting chops and solid athleticism could see him move up boards.
Dariyan Pendergrass, OF, College of Charleston (NR)
Pendergrass has the exact toolset that should be in more demand given MLB’s rule changes that have allowed for a more speed- and athlete-oriented game. Pendergrass was a multi-sport athlete in high school who was a standout on the diamond and gridiron at Hartsville High in South Carolina before he slashed .403/.489/.546 in two seasons with Spartanburg Methodist (S.C.) JC. In that time he went 75-for-77 (97.4%) in stolen base attempts.
He is one of the best pure runners in the 2024 class and he spent the summer in the Coastal Plain League where he hit .354/.438/.520 with more walks than strikeouts and 35 stolen bases in 40 tries (87.5%). Pendergrass will face his biggest offensive challenge this spring with College of Charleston in the Coastal Athletic Association and if he holds his own could appeal to teams looking for the next Victor Scott.
Dasan Hill, LHP, Grapevine (Texas) HS (NR)
Hill is one of my gut-feel projection arms to take steps forward this spring. I was intrigued with his size and two-pitch mix during the Area Code Games in 2023 when he threw a pair of innings but allowed two hits, three walks and struck out two. He has a great pitcher’s frame at 6-foot-4, 170 pounds with tons of room for more mass and strength, and flashed 91-93 mph velocity early before quickly fading in his second inning of work.
Hill also mixed in a high-spin slider that flashed some potential but lacked consistency and power that could come as he adds more strength and better learns how to sequence his delivery and repeat his release. It sounds like he’s already making strides with velocity by touching 95 in a February outing in 2024.
