10 Arizona Fall League Hitters With Standout Statcast Data

1. Jac Caglianone, 1B, Royals

I don’t typically rank players when I write this series, but Caglianone’s data was so spectacular that I felt he deserved a clear cut, no questions, numero uno ranking. Let me show you why:

I’ve limited the players in this chart to those that saw at least 100 pitches in the Arizona Fall League. Caglianone posted an eye-opening 95.7% contact rate during the AFL regular season, combined with a 90th percentile exit velocity north of 110 mph, which is legit 80 grade raw power.

I’m a big believer in Caglianone. The hardest thing to do in professional sports is make contact against major league pitching. When Caglianone makes a good swing decision, he might be one of the most dangerous hitters at any level of professional baseball. We’ve seen a lot of hitters succeed with very poor discipline—Salvador Perez and Javier Baez to name a couple—because they were exceptional at making good quality contact.

In High-A this season, Caglianone swung at 58% of pitches he saw. In the AFL, he lowered that to 50%, which is a significant gain in patience. Incremental improvements in pitch selection can turn the Royals’ sixth overall pick into an absolute monster of a player. I’d like to see him increase his launch angle a bit, but that might happen organically if he improves his pitch selection and starts swinging at pitches higher in the zone.

2. Kemp Alderman, RF, Marlins

Let’s look at the same chart as above, but lower the threshold to 50 pitches seen. This will include some really small samples, but it will also show us more players, including the intriguing Alderman.

That’s a 90th percentile exit velocity of 115.5 mph, including a max of 119.5, which is approaching GiancarloStanton/Oneil Cruz territory. While I’m not yet buying that he has that level of raw power, his 110 mph 90th percentile EV in the FSL was around 110 mph, which is at the tippy top of the scale. He still struggles to make contact and, outside of the small AFL sample, doesn’t get a ton of loft on his contact, which limits his projection a lot.

In the Arizona Fall League, Alderman had 13 tracked batted balls, six of which were hit harder than 105 mph and three went further than 400 feet. His second hardest batted ball of 116.8 mph would suggest on its own near-80 grade raw power. He’s got a long road ahead of him, but he is definitely in the upper echelon of power merchants in the minor leagues.

3. Leodalis De Vries, SS, Padres

De Vries just turned 18 and posted an average exit velocity two mph above the major league average (91.1 mph) to go with a 90th percentile exit velocity right around the major league median (104 mph). He also got the ball in the air, averaging a highly-optimized 23.6 degree launch angle on his tracked batted balls. To top it all off, he made above-average contact rates both in and out of the zone while chasing at a below-average rate.

De Vries, who has a chance to stick at shortstop, should be in the conversation as the top prospect in baseball thanks to the very rare combination of at least average raw power, plus contact and swing decisions, all while being the youngest player in the AFL. He’s hitting the ball harder than Ethan Salas and should grow into at least 60 grade raw power, which looks like it will play up, given his launch angles at both Single-A and the Fall League.

4. Jonathon Long, 3B/1B, Cubs

Long was drafted in the ninth round by the Cubs in 2023, likely due to strong exit velocities he posted in his draft year. Since then, all he’s done is hit, posting a wRC+ of 153 in his draft year in Single-A, followed up by a 121 wRC+ in High-A and a 189 wRC+ in Double-A this season. He walked more than he struck out in a reasonable sample of 200 Double-A plate appearances, as well.

We have 17 tracked batted balls for Long in the public data. He averaged 95 mph on those with a 19.5-degree average launch angle. Eleven of his 17 batted balls were above 95 mph, however, he maxed out only slightly-above-average at 111.7 mph, so I wouldn’t quite buy the 110 mph 90th percentile EV just yet. He looks primed to be in Triple-A quite soon, so I’ll be looking forward to writing about him quite often next season.

5. Josue Briceño, 1B, Tigers

Briceño was the first player to win the triple crown in the history of the AFL. So, clearly his ranking here at No. 5 is wrong? Perhaps! I only have partial data for the AFL, so my rankings here reflect mostly the underlying data. His top end exit velocity of 110 mph is basically major league average, but his other exit velocity metrics such as 90th percentile EV and average EV are about three mph above the major league average, with roughly average-or-better contact and chase metrics across the board. He’s playing a lot of games at 1B/DH, which is where he may be headed, but his value goes through the roof if he can improve enough behind the plate to catch 50-60 game a year. Still, he should have enough bat to play at 1B/DH if he needs to.

6. Chase DeLauter, OF, Guardians

Chase doesn’t chase, and he makes (De)louder contact than most prospects.

All jokes aside, at every level at which he’s competed, DeLauter shows impeccable contact rates, pristine chase rates and above average in-zone aggression combined with very hard contact and decent launch angles. He’s never had a whiff rate (per swing) above 15.3% at any level, nor a swinging strike rate (whiffs/pitch) above 6.9%. If he’s healthy, he’s at the very top end of prospects in baseball.

7. Thayron Liranzo, C, Tigers

Liranzo had an average exit velocity of 100.3 mph, a testament to his ability to consistently barrel up the baseball despite more average-looking top-end exit velocities. His contact rates in-zone and overall were less than stellar in the AFL, but his contact rate is around the 70% mark, which is a good proxy for the bottom end of what can work. His future hinges on his ability to stay behind the plate.

8. Alejandro Osuna, OF, Rangers

Let’s break down Osuna’s AFL data:

• Average Exit Velocity: 91.5 mph (2.5 mph above MLB average)
• Max Exit Velocity: 110.7 mph (roughly MLB average)
• Launch Angle: 11 degrees (roughly average)
• Contact Rate: 77% (+3% to MLB average)
• Zone Contact Rate: 88% (5% above MLB Average)
• Chase Rate: 26.3% (4.2% lower than MLB Average)

That’s a suite of metrics all point to a very good hitter. If he can post similar numbers in Triple-A, he’ll be a frequent flyer in this series in 2025. He crushed High-A and Double-A last season, so it looks likely we’ll have plenty of Triple-A data on him next year.

9. Romeo Sanabria, 1B, Padres

Sanabria’s 89.5% zone contact rate was excellent, but he really struggled to make contact on pitches out of the zone, dragging down his overall contact rates to below average (though, they’ve been better in full-season ball). He hit the ball pretty hard, showing roughly 65-grade power given his various exit velocity metrics with solid loft. It’s not an exciting profile given that he’s a first baseman, however, his underlying metrics might point to a hitter that’s about to break out.

10. Xavier Isaac, 1B/RF, Rays

Isaac is hitting the ball as hard as anyone with plenty of loft, but terrible contact rates. He’s looking a lot like Matt Wallner right now, which can work but can also be unplayable at times.