Sam Carlson Stats & Scouting Report

IP	48.2
ERA	4.25
WHIP	1.44
BB/9	3.51
SO/9	9.43

Full name Samuel Carlson
Born 12/03/1998 in Savage, MN
Profile Ht.: 6'4" / Wt.: 195 / Bats: R / Throws: R
School Burnsville
Drafted in the 2nd round (55th overall) by the Seattle Mariners in 2017 (signed for $2,000,000).

View Draft Report

Carlson is the top high school prospect to come out of Minnesota since Joe Mauer in 2001. He draws comparisons to Athletics prospect Logan Shore; like Shore, Carlson is a Minnesota prep righty committed to Florida whose fastball-changeup combo defines him. Carlson, however, has a better body and throws harder than Shore did as an amateur. On the summer showcase circuit prior to his senior year, Carlson showed plus arm speed and a projectable body, but he pitched 90-91 with fastball. He showed the potential for a plus changeup with exceptionally late fade and tumbling action down and away from lefthanded hitters. Carlson flashed tight spin on his upper 70s breaking ball, but the pitch had inconsistent tilt and often backed up on him when he threw it to his arm side. Carlson was one of the biggest risers this spring due to the growth of his fastball velocity and the consistency of his breaking pitch. He came out of the gate hot, pitching at 91-95 and touching 96. Carlson has not thrown his changeup often in games this spring, but it continues to show the plus potential it did last summer when he throws it in the bullpen. His breaking ball now has more of a true slider look to it, and he's hitting on it more consistently than he did last summer. Carlson hides the ball well in his delivery with a short plunge towards his back hip. He throws from a lower three-quarters arm slot and finishes across his body. He has a loose, athletic lower half and gets over his front side well. Carlson shows above-average control of all of his pitches and has the chance to develop command as he matures physically. Carlson is a legitimate two-way prospect if he makes good on his Florida commitment. He runs well and shows the ability to generate hard line drives to the gaps. He's likely to be selected in the first two rounds, though.

Top Rankings

Organization Prospect Rankings

TRACK RECORD: The most significant accomplishment for Carlson in 2020 was finally getting back on the mound after a litany of injuries, most notably Tommy John surgery in 2018. Carlson took regular turns on the mound during instructional league with mixed results, but most importantly he stayed healthy and built confidence.

SCOUTING REPORT: Carlson has not pitched in an official game since 2017 and is still shaking off the rust. He worked on developing cleaner mechanics during his injury rehab time, resulting in a more efficient and free delivery. Carlson's fastball reached 96 mph with late life and sink prior to surgery but sat 91-93 mph with sneaky darting action during instructs. His secondary pitches are all right around average, with his slider the most promising. His slider shows a good amount of sweep and depth, but he needs to throw it harder to make it an above-average pitch. Carlson commands his 11-to-5 curveball for strikes early in counts and also throws a potentially average changeup with soft fade. He throws them all for strikes with average control.

THE FUTURE: Carlson's future depends on how his stuff comes back. The hope is it will and that he can become a back-end starter.
TRACK RECORD: It would be easy to have forgotten about Carlson by now, considering that the Mariners' 2017 second-round pick has pitched in just two games since being drafted. Arm troubles kept him out of action for a full year before he had Tommy John surgery last July.

SCOUTING REPORT: Carlson is worth keeping on the radar because of his high school résumé, which shows that the Minnesota high school product was one of the better pitchers in the 2017 draft class. Prior to the injuries that wiped out much of the early part of his career, Carlson sported a heavy fastball up to 96 mph with late action and sink. He complemented that with an above-average slider with late action and tilt and a changeup that flashed plus.

THE FUTURE: Carlson was expected to start long tossing in the fall with bullpen sessions to follow prior to spring training.
Track Record: Carlson had a strong commitment to Florida before the Mariners signed him for an over-slot $2 million in the second round of the 2017 draft. After two short but impressive appearances in Rookie ball in 2017, Carlson was shut down with some minor soreness that did not look to be a long-term issue. Elbow and forearm tenderness kept him off the mound at 2018 spring training, but he began throwing bullpen sessions in early summer before it was determined that he needed Tommy John surgery in July.

Scouting Report: Carlson has a prototype pitcher's frame with room to add strength. Prior to the injury, he threw a heavy fastball with late action and natural sink up to 96 mph. His above-average mid-80s slider has late action and tilt, complemented by a changeup that flashes plus. With a loose, quick arm, Carlson uses a delivery that is easy and free-flowing.

The Future: The Mariners hope that Carlson can be throwing bullpens again by late July and are targeting 2020 for a return to game action. He'll still be just 21, but the Mariners will need to speed his development at that point because he will be in his fourth pro season before he receives significant pro mound experience.
Coming out of cold-weather Minnesota, Carlson was a late riser on 2017 draft boards before the Mariners popped him in the second round. It took a $2 million bonus to keep him from his commitment to Florida, and Carlson started his pro career with two short outings in the Rookie-level Arizona League before being shut down for the year as a precaution against some minor soreness. Carlson was a legitimate two-way player if he had gone to Florida, as he had line-drive gap power with decent speed. Carlson was one of the best prospects to come out of Minnesota in years. Carlson sports a solid pitcher's frame with room for added strength. He drew a lot of comparisons to Florida Gators and now Athletics righthander Logan Shore as a fastball–changeup righthander. His heavy fastball with late action and natural sink was up to 96 mph in the AZL, consistent with the velocity during his final high school season when he consistently sat 91-95 mph. His mid-80s slider features late action and tilt and projects as a potentially above-average pitch. His changeup is especially advanced for a young, hard-throwing righthander. He didn't use it nearly as much during his senior season of high school, but it flashed plus consistently on the summer showcase circuit in the year before the date. Carlson's delivery is easy and free-flowing out of a loose, quick arm. He participated in the Mariners' minor league strength camp in the fall to help prepare him for a pro workload. He will likely start 2018 in extended spring training in order to manage his innings, but he could get to low Class A Clinton before the end of the season.

Draft Prospects

Carlson is the top high school prospect to come out of Minnesota since Joe Mauer in 2001. He draws comparisons to Athletics prospect Logan Shore; like Shore, Carlson is a Minnesota prep righty committed to Florida whose fastball-changeup combo defines him. Carlson, however, has a better body and throws harder than Shore did as an amateur. On the summer showcase circuit prior to his senior year, Carlson showed plus arm speed and a projectable body, but he pitched 90-91 with fastball. He showed the potential for a plus changeup with exceptionally late fade and tumbling action down and away from lefthanded hitters. Carlson flashed tight spin on his upper 70s breaking ball, but the pitch had inconsistent tilt and often backed up on him when he threw it to his arm side. Carlson was one of the biggest risers this spring due to the growth of his fastball velocity and the consistency of his breaking pitch. He came out of the gate hot, pitching at 91-95 and touching 96. Carlson has not thrown his changeup often in games this spring, but it continues to show the plus potential it did last summer when he throws it in the bullpen. His breaking ball now has more of a true slider look to it, and he's hitting on it more consistently than he did last summer. Carlson hides the ball well in his delivery with a short plunge towards his back hip. He throws from a lower three-quarters arm slot and finishes across his body. He has a loose, athletic lower half and gets over his front side well. Carlson shows above-average control of all of his pitches and has the chance to develop command as he matures physically. Carlson is a legitimate two-way prospect if he makes good on his Florida commitment. He runs well and shows the ability to generate hard line drives to the gaps. He's likely to be selected in the first two rounds, though.

Best Tools List

Rated Best Changeup in the Seattle Mariners in 2018

Scouting Reports

TRACK RECORD: The most significant accomplishment for Carlson in 2020 was finally getting back on the mound after a litany of injuries, most notably Tommy John surgery in 2018. Carlson took regular turns on the mound during instructional league with mixed results, but most importantly he stayed healthy and built confidence.

SCOUTING REPORT: Carlson has not pitched in an official game since 2017 and is still shaking off the rust. He worked on developing cleaner mechanics during his injury rehab time, resulting in a more efficient and free delivery. Carlson's fastball reached 96 mph with late life and sink prior to surgery but sat 91-93 mph with sneaky darting action during instructs. His secondary pitches are all right around average, with his slider the most promising. His slider shows a good amount of sweep and depth, but he needs to throw it harder to make it an above-average pitch. Carlson commands his 11-to-5 curveball for strikes early in counts and also throws a potentially average changeup with soft fade. He throws them all for strikes with average control.

THE FUTURE: Carlson's future depends on how his stuff comes back. The hope is it will and that he can become a back-end starter.
TRACK RECORD: The most significant accomplishment for Carlson in 2020 was finally getting back on the mound after a litany of injuries, most notably Tommy John surgery in 2018. Carlson took regular turns on the mound during instructional league with mixed results, but most importantly he stayed healthy and built confidence.

SCOUTING REPORT: Carlson has not pitched in an official game since 2017 and is still shaking off the rust. He worked on developing cleaner mechanics during his injury rehab time, resulting in a more efficient and free delivery. Carlson's fastball reached 96 mph with late life and sink prior to surgery but sat 91-93 mph with sneaky darting action during instructs. His secondary pitches are all right around average, with his slider the most promising. His slider shows a good amount of sweep and depth, but he needs to throw it harder to make it an above-average pitch. Carlson commands his 11-to-5 curveball for strikes early in counts and also throws a potentially average changeup with soft fade. He throws them all for strikes with average control.

THE FUTURE: Carlson's future depends on how his stuff comes back. The hope is it will and that he can become a back-end starter.
TRACK RECORD: It would be easy to have forgotten about Carlson by now, considering that the Mariners’ 2017 second-round pick has pitched in just two games since being drafted. Arm troubles kept him out of action for a full year before he had Tommy John surgery last July.

SCOUTING REPORT: Carlson is worth keeping on the radar because of his high school résumé, which shows that the Minnesota high school product was one of the better pitchers in the 2017 draft class. Prior to the injuries that wiped out much of the early part of his career, Carlson sported a heavy fastball up to 96 mph with late action and sink. He complemented that with an above-average slider with late action and tilt and a changeup that flashed plus.

THE FUTURE: Carlson was expected to start long tossing in the fall with bullpen sessions to follow prior to spring training.
TRACK RECORD: It would be easy to have forgotten about Carlson by now, considering that the Mariners' 2017 second-round pick has pitched in just two games since being drafted. Arm troubles kept him out of action for a full year before he had Tommy John surgery last July.

SCOUTING REPORT: Carlson is worth keeping on the radar because of his high school résumé, which shows that the Minnesota high school product was one of the better pitchers in the 2017 draft class. Prior to the injuries that wiped out much of the early part of his career, Carlson sported a heavy fastball up to 96 mph with late action and sink. He complemented that with an above-average slider with late action and tilt and a changeup that flashed plus.

THE FUTURE: Carlson was expected to start long tossing in the fall with bullpen sessions to follow prior to spring training.
Track Record: Coming out of cold-weather Minnesota, Carlson was a late riser on 2017 draft boards before the Mariners popped him in the second round. It took a $2 million bonus to keep him from his commitment to Florida, and Carlson started his pro career with two short outings in the Rookie-level Arizona League before being shut down for the year with minor soreness. Scouting Report: Carlson was one of the best prospects to come out of Minnesota in years. He sports a solid pitcher's frame with room for added strength. His heavy fastball with late action and natural sink was up to 96 mph in the AZL, consistent with the velocity during his final high school season. His mid-80s slider features late action and tilt and projects as a potentially above-average pitch. His changeup is especially advanced for a young, hard-throwing righthander. He didn't use it nearly as much during his senior season of high school, but it flashed plus consistently on the summer showcase circuit. The Future: Carlson will likely start 2018 in extended spring training in order to manage his innings, but he could get to low Class A Clinton.