Luke Weaver

Organization Prospect Rankings

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  Ranked St. Louis Cardinals #2 prospect in 2017
  There was a time Weaver used his slight frame as a ruse. He would dial back his warmups so his stuff looked as undersized as he did, but there was no hiding his velocity from live hitters. An ace at Florida State and a member of USA Baseball's 2013 Collegiate National Team, Weaver signed for $1,843,000. He was sidelined in 2016 by a broken wrist but returned in June, emerged as a Texas League dynamo, and zoomed to majors. The elasticity and athleticism of Weaver's mechanics allow him excellent pound-for-pound velocity. His fastball sits 92-94 mph and touches 96, which he complements with an an above-average changeup. He is fearless with the pitch, throwing it to either side of the plate. In the minors, Weaver relentlessly worked the edges of the strike zone with his sinker or changeup 80 percent of the time with double-plus control. He wasn't as aggressive in the majors, groping for a precise pitch instead relying on movement. That made him less economical and prone to damage. Earmarked to be the ace of the Triple-A Memphis staff so he can sharpen his approach, a strong spring will cement Weaver as the Cardinals' next arm up when a starter is needed.
• 
  Ranked St. Louis Cardinals #4 prospect in 2016
  Weaver developed into Florida State's ace as a sophomore, earning a spot on USA Baseball's star-studded 2013 Collegiate National Team. His fastball backed up a bit as a junior, but he still pitched his way into the first round, signing for $1,843,000, then started five combined shutouts in his first pro season. Weaver earns Tim Hudson body comps, but he pitches more like Jered Weaver (unrelated) as a flyball pitcher. At high Class A Palm Beach in 2015, he took advantage of Roger Dean Stadium, pounding the strike zone with a 92-93 mph fastball that can bump 96 on his best days. Weaver pitches aggressively off his fastball, which earns above-average grades. His above-average changeup has good sink at times as well, though he needs to locate it better. He has improved his curveball to be a solid-average pitch at times, and it's more consistent than his slider. Both breaking balls play up because he throws them for strikes. Weaver fields his position and holds runners very well. If Weaver hadn't shown up to spring training less than ready, he likely would have moved quicker. He'll start 2016 at Double-A Springfield but could move quickly if the Cardinals need the pitching depth.
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  Ranked St. Louis Cardinals #12 prospect in 2015
  Weaver finished 2014 at high Class A Palm Beach after signing for $1.843 million as the 34th overall pick. His jump to the Florida State League did not fare well in starts, but the Cardinals are confident he can have success as he did in college at Florida State. Scouts say Weaver lost some of his looseness from 2013, when he ranked 11th in the country with 10.9 strikeouts per nine innings. That rate dipped to 7.2 in 2014, when Weaver's fastball usually sat 88-92 mph after sitting in the los 90s and touching 96 in 2013. Weaver pitches with a three-quarters arm slot, and his changeup has good deception and sinking action. However, his slider was fringy in college. Weaver might return to Palm Beach in 2015, but note that the Cardinals haven't been shy of challenging first-rounders (see: Michael Wacha or Marco Gonzales) with quick assignments to Double-A Springfield.

Draft Prospects

• Ranked #38 prospect in 2014 draft
  Florida State produced back-to-back first-round righthanders in 1994-95 with Paul Wilson and Jonathan Johnson, but they haven't had a righty go in the first round since then, with Nick Stocks being a supplemental first-rounder in 1999. Weaver entered the year as the best bet to end that streak but has seen his velocity back up this spring from its 96 mph peak last season. Slight and athletic at 6-foot-2, 170 pounds, Weaver pitches off an 88-92 mph fastball that peaks higher on occasion but less frequently this year than last year, as scouts report he has lost some of his previous looseness. His fastball has some sink from a three-quarters slot, and his changeup has good deception and sinking action. Weaver's slider remains a fringy pitch, as it was when scouts saw him last summer with USA Baseball, and his strikeout rate has plummeted from 10.89 per nine (11th in the country last year) to 7.2 this season. However, he has mound presence, above-average control and the competitiveness demanded of a Friday starter for a top program. Weaver has second- or third-round tools with first-round pedigree.

Minor League Top Prospects

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  Ranked Pacific Coast League #10 prospect in 2017
  Weaver continues to dominate despite a rail-thin frame. His fastball still sits in the mid-90s, and he has command of that as well as his changeup, cutter and slider. He has sharp control with a walk rate of just 1.8 per nine innings in 53 minor league starts. "He competes," Memphis manager Stubby Clapp said. "Even when he doesn't have his best stuff, he's not giving in . . . He's strong and wiry and he's got good arm whip." Weaver has had issues with durability, which isn't surprising considering his frame, but he surpassed 100 innings for the second straight season and showed much more comfort at the big league level when the Cardinals called him up three different times.
• 
  Ranked Texas League #4 prospect in 2016
  Weaver missed the first two months of the season as he recovered from a broken wrist he sustained in a collision in the outfield during spring training. But once he arrived in Springfield in early June, he was the best pitcher in the TL until his promotion to Triple-A in August. Just a week later, he was in the big leagues, where he quickly became a valuable member of the Cardinals rotation. Weaver throws a 92-95 mph fastball that is just as impressive as it was when he was drafted out of Florida State, but his curveball and changeup have improved. His changeup now grades as an above-average offering, and his curveball, while much less consistent, also will flash above-average. He also has added a high-80s cutter which has given lefthanded batters something else to worry about.
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  Ranked Florida State League #17 prospect in 2015
  Scouts found Weaver to be much the same pitcher he was as Florida State's ace in 2013-14. He fell about seven innings short of qualifying for the league ERA title, and he would have led the league handily with his 1.62 mark had he qualified. He got a late start after opening the season on the disabled list, ostensibly to build arm strength, and didn't make his first start until mid-May. Weaver has garnered Tim Hudson body comps for his size but has more of a vintage Jered Weaver delivery, with some crossfire and deception that helps his fastball-changeup mix play up. Like Jered Weaver, he's more of a flyball pitcher than a groundball guy. He repeats his delivery and at his best pitches off a 92-93 mph fastball that regularly reaches 94 and at times touched 96. His above-average changeup is his best secondary pitch, with decent sink, and he commands both pitches well. Both of Weaver's breaking balls grade as below-average. He added an early-count curveball to complement his slider this year. He'll have to command them to fill his late-rotation profile, but he has the athleticism to adjust and has a good feel for how to use his stuff to set up hitters.

Top 100 Rankings

• Ranked Baseball America's #50 prospect in 2017

• December, 2016 Scouting Report
  Background: There was a time when Weaver used his slight frame as a ruse. He would dial back his warmups so his stuff looked as undersized as he did, but there was no hiding his velocity from live hitters. An ace at Florida State by his sophomore year and a member of USA Baseball's 2013 Collegiate National Team, Weaver signed for $1,843,000 and was billed as the next college arm to speed through the system. He was sidelined in 2016 by a broken (non-pitching) wrist but returned in June, emerged as a Texas League dynamo, and zoomed to majors. Scouting Report: The elasticity and athleticism of Weaver's mechanics allow him to have excellent pound-for-pound velocity. His fastball sits 92-94 mph and touches 96, which he complements with an an above-average changeup. He is fearless with the pitch, throwing it to either side of the plate. In the minors, Weaver relentlessly worked the edges of the strike zone with his sinker or changeup 80 percent of the time with double-plus control. He wasn't as aggressive in the majors, groping for a precise pitch instead relying on the movement. That made him less economical and prone to damage. An improved breaking ball would be a boost.
  
  The Future: Earmarked to be the ace of the Triple-A Memphis staff so he can sharpen his approach, a strong spring will cement Weaver as the Cardinals' next arm up when a starter is needed.
• December, 2015 Scouting Report
  Weaver developed into Florida State's ace as a sophomore, earning a spot on USA Baseball's star-studded 2013 Collegiate National Team. His fastball backed up a bit as a junior, but he still pitched his way into the first round, signing for $1,843,000, then started five combined shutouts in his first pro season. Weaver earns Tim Hudson body comps, but he pitches more like Jered Weaver (unrelated) as a flyball pitcher. At high Class A Palm Beach in 2015, he took advantage of Roger Dean Stadium, pounding the strike zone with a 92-93 mph fastball that can bump 96 on his best days. Weaver pitches aggressively off his fastball, which earns above-average grades. His above-average changeup has good sink at times as well, though he needs to locate it better. He has improved his curveball to be a solid-average pitch at times, and it's more consistent than his slider. Both breaking balls play up because he throws them for strikes. Weaver fields his position and holds runners very well. If Weaver hadn't shown up to spring training less than ready, he likely would have moved quicker. He'll start 2016 at Double-A Springfield but could move quickly if the Cardinals need the pitching depth.
• December, 2014 Scouting Report
  Weaver finished 2014 at high Class A Palm Beach after signing for $1.843 million as the 34th overall pick. His jump to the Florida State League did not fare well in starts, but the Cardinals are confident he can have success as he did in college at Florida State. Scouts say Weaver lost some of his looseness from 2013, when he ranked 11th in the country with 10.9 strikeouts per nine innings. That rate dipped to 7.2 in 2014, when Weaver's fastball usually sat 88-92 mph after sitting in the los 90s and touching 96 in 2013. Weaver pitches with a three-quarters arm slot, and his changeup has good deception and sinking action. However, his slider was fringy in college. Weaver might return to Palm Beach in 2015, but note that the Cardinals haven't been shy of challenging first-rounders (see: Michael Wacha or Marco Gonzales) with quick assignments to Double-A Springfield.