Dane Dunning

Organization Prospect Rankings

• 
  Ranked Texas Rangers #4 prospect in 2021
  Fastball: 55. Slider: 60. Changeup: 55. Curveball: 50. Control: 55.
  
  TRACK RECORD: The Nationals selected Dunning in the first round in 2016 and sent him to the White Sox with Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo Lopez in exchange for outfielder Adam Eaton that winter. Dunning missed all of 2019 recovering from Tommy John surgery, but he returned in 2020 and went 2-0, 3.97 in seven big league starts.
  
  SCOUTING REPORT: Dunning was primarily a sinker/slider pitcher in college but has expanded his repertoire as a pro. He added a four-seam fastball after joining the White Sox and tweaked his curveball grip with help from veteran righthander James Shields. Along with his changeup, the enhancements gave Dunning a varied, five-pitch mix. Nothing is overpowering, but Dunning mixes and matches to keep hitters off balance. His 91-93 mph sinker and low-80s slider remain his primary weapons and he throws his four- seam fastball, curveball and changeup enough to keep batters guessing. His walk rate was a tick high in his major league debut, but he throws everything for strikes and has demonstrated above-average control throughout his career.
  
  THE FUTURE: Dunning will begin 2021 at the back of Chicago’s rotation. His varied arsenal, control and pitchability should allow him to remain there long-term.
• 
  Ranked Chicago White Sox #8 prospect in 2020
  TRACK RECORD: Just months after being drafted by the Nationals, Dunning was dealt to the White Sox with righties Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo Lopez as the price to bring outfielder Adam Eaton to Washington. He was impressive in his first two seasons with the White Sox but an elbow strain late in 2018 led to Tommy John surgery that cost him all of the 2019 season.
  
  SCOUTING REPORT: Before the surgery, Dunning had the makings of a classic sinker/slider starter. He worked his low-to-mid-90s heater toward the bottom of the zone—he'd been making special effort to max out his extension to maximize the pitch's effectiveness—and couples that with a mid-80s slider with 10-to-4 break. He moved to a spike grip on his curveball, which has above-average potential. He also throws a mid-80s slider that could be above-average if it reaches its potential.
  
  THE FUTURE: Dunning had Tommy John surgery in mid-March 2019, meaning he will likely miss the first part of the 2020 regular season. Dunning has returned to the mound, and was throwing at the team's complex in Glendale in November. If he returns to his pre-surgery form, he could nestle into the middle of a young, talented White Sox rotation.
• 
  Ranked Chicago White Sox #7 prospect in 2019
  Track Record: Dunning, Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo Lopez joined the White Sox in the December 2016 Adam Eaton trade. Lopez and Giolito spent the season in the big league rotation, while Dunning impressed in the minors, reaching Double-A Birmingham. A strained right elbow cost him two months, but he returned for instructional league.
  
  Scouting Report: Dunning’s go-to pitches are his above-average low-90s sinker and plus slider. The righthander has worked hard over the past two seasons to consistently get full extension in his delivery, which imparts maximum action on his sinker. His slider is thrown in the low-to-mid-80s and shows 10-to-4 break. His above-average curveball, which he reintroduced after shelving it early in his career, is coming along quickly. Dunning tinkered with the grip on the pitch until he settled on a spike grip, which gives the pitch a sharper break. He also moved to the center of the rubber in 2018, which gives him a little more margin for error when it comes to working to his glove side. His changeup, which is thrown in the same velocity band as his slider, projects as above-average.
  
  The Future: Dunning is likely headed back to Birmingham. He projects as a No. 4 starter.
• 
  Ranked Chicago White Sox #5 prospect in 2018
  The Florida Gators produce pro-ready pitchers at a prodigious rate. Dunning is yet another example of the team's pitching proclivity. He was used as a valuable reliever by the Gators, but was long targeted by pro scouts as a quality starting pitching prospect--he made more starts in 2017 in pro ball than he made in three seasons at Florida. The White Sox targeted Dunning in the 2016 draft, but the Nationals took him at the end of the first round before they had a chance to grab him. Six months later, the White Sox acquired Dunning along with Reynaldo Lopez and Lucas Giolito for Adam Eaton from the Nationals. Dunning cruised through the Class A levels in his first full season, posting a combined 2.94 ERA. Dunning operates primarily with a sinker and a slider, and has a changeup as well. He sits in the low-to-mid-90s, peaking at 96 mph. When his delivery is clicking, Dunning features heavy sink and will coax hitters into beating the ball into the ground. He struggled at times to get out over his front side, which had a flattening effect on his stuff and resulted in an elevated--and out of character--home run rate at high Class A Winston-Salem. Dunning's slider and changeup, both thrown in the low-to-mid-80s, have above-average or plus potential. To maintain consistency and crispness on his pitches, the White Sox have stressed to Dunning the need to stay tall through his delivery. Dunning will likely join Alec Hansen atop a very talented rotation at Double-A Birmingham in 2018. With three quality pitches and a clean, repeatable delivery, he has a mid-rotation ceiling moving forward.
• 
  Ranked Chicago White Sox #11 prospect in 2017
  Dunning was a key piece of Florida's top-ranked recruiting class in 2013, entering with future All-Americans lefthander A.J. Puk and righthander Logan Shore. Dunning mostly worked as a midweek starter and out of the bullpen, but still logged significant innings and helped Florida to back-to-back appearances in the College World Series in 2015 and 2016. The Nationals drafted him 29th overall in 2016, and he made a strong pro debut with short-season Auburn. The Nationals traded him to the White Sox after the 2016 season with righthanders Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo Lopez for Adam Eaton. Dunning throws his fastball in the low 90s as a starter and can reach 95 mph in shorter outings. His slider can be a quality pitch but is inconsistent. His solid-average changeup is his best secondary pitch, and he is comfortable throwing it to batters on both sides of the plate. Dunning's stuff all plays up thanks to his control, and he as a junior ranked sixth in the country in strikeout-to-walk ratio (7.33). He is a good athlete and repeats his easy delivery well. Despite his atypical college career, Dunning has the tools necessary to be a starter. He is advanced enough to handle an assignment to high Class A Winston-Salem in 2017.

Draft Prospects

• Ranked #60 prospect in 2016 draft
  Drafted in the 34th round out of high school by the Blue Jays, Dunning chose to go to Florida, and was a key piece in its top-ranked recruiting class in 2013. Due to the Gators' depth, he has been used mostly as a midweek starter and out of the bullpen during his college career, but has still logged significant innings. Dunning runs his fastball up to 95 mph when he works out of the bullpen, but typically sits in the low 90s over extended outings. His changeup and slider both have a chance to be average offerings, but his slider is inconsistent. Dunning fills up the strike zone and, in early May, had nearly halved his walk rate this season. Though scouts haven't gotten to see him start as often as they would like, Dunning has many of the tools necessary to be a starter and will likely begin his professional career in that role.
• Ranked #490 prospect in 2013 draft
  Dunning is a key part of Florida's recruiting class and stands out in the state's prep class for his size but not for his performance or stuff. The 6-foot-3, 190-pounder has shown scouts an 88-91 mph fastball and offers projection as he gains strength. His changeup has been ahead of his curveball, which needs the most work because it lacks power. It has shown flashes of average shape and spin.

Minor League Top Prospects

• 
  Ranked Southern League #15 prospect in 2018
  Drafted 29th overall by the Nationals in 2016 and traded to the White Sox that winter as part of the deal for Adam Eaton, Dunning spent a lot of time in college working in the bullpen or as a midweek starter for Florida. Thus his development as a pro starter has unfolded slowly by the standards of a first-round pick. He reached Double-A in late April 2018 but made just 11 starts before a sprained elbow truncated his season. Dunning earns high grades for his pitchability and control of four pitches, even if he lacks a present plus pitch. He pitches at 90-91 mph and tops out at 93, driving the ball down into the zone with heavy sink and picking up a high rate of ground balls. His above-average low-80s slider is his best secondary pitch, and it breaks late away from the bats of righthanded hitters with 11-to-4 break. His above-average changeup plays well of his fastball. His mid-70s curveball features downer action and nice separation from the rest of his repertoire. Dunning’s stuff plays up thanks to a long stride and good extension. He repeats an athletic delivery and could develop plus big league control, which will be crucial to keep hitters guessing as a No. 4 type starter.
• 
  Ranked Carolina League #10 prospect in 2017
  To acquire Adam Eaton from the White Sox last winter, the Nationals traded away righthanders Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez and Dunning. The White Sox sent Dunning to low Class A Kannapolis, but he earned a quick promotion to Winston-Salem. At his best, Dunning dominates by commanding his low- to mid-90s sinker and slider and letting his defense work for him. The White Sox were encouraged by his willingness to throw his sinker to both sides of the plate, but they would like him to work on staying tall through his delivery and staying over his front side. Dunning's 12-to-6 curveball is a weapon in his arsenal, and he is working on continuing to develop his changeup. He struck out 135 in the Carolina League to rank fourth, despite not joining the Dash until May 2, and he ranked 11th in the minors overall.
• 
  Ranked New York-Penn League #6 prospect in 2016
  On any other college pitching staff, Dunning would have likely been in the weekend rotation, but Florida used him in a relief role, at times piggybacking for fellow first-rounder A.J. Puk. Dunning was an invaluable weapon for the Gators. He went 6-3, 2.29 with 88 strikeouts to 12 walks in 78.2 this spring and pitched his way into the first round. Dunning's body and stuff fit a starter's profile, and the Nationals are developing him in that role. He can touch 96 mph with armside run, but he typically lives a few notches lower than that. His changeup has the chance to be a plus pitch, and his slider, while inconsistent, has the chance to be average. He throws a lot of strikes, gets a lot of groundballs (2.89 groundout-to-airout ratio) and showed the ability to go through a lineup more than twice--including a nine-inning complete game Aug. 13, in which Dunning threw 125 pitches and struck out eight.

Top 100 Rankings

• Ranked Baseball America's #82 prospect in 2018

• March, 2021 Scouting Report
  Fastball: 55. Slider: 60. Changeup: 55. Curveball: 50. Control: 55.
  
  TRACK RECORD: The Nationals selected Dunning in the first round in 2016 and sent him to the White Sox with Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo Lopez in exchange for outfielder Adam Eaton that winter. Dunning missed all of 2019 recovering from Tommy John surgery, but he returned in 2020 and went 2-0, 3.97 in seven big league starts.
  
  SCOUTING REPORT: Dunning was primarily a sinker/slider pitcher in college but has expanded his repertoire as a pro. He added a four-seam fastball after joining the White Sox and tweaked his curveball grip with help from veteran righthander James Shields. Along with his changeup, the enhancements gave Dunning a varied, five-pitch mix. Nothing is overpowering, but Dunning mixes and matches to keep hitters off balance. His 91-93 mph sinker and low-80s slider remain his primary weapons and he throws his four- seam fastball, curveball and changeup enough to keep batters guessing. His walk rate was a tick high in his major league debut, but he throws everything for strikes and has demonstrated above-average control throughout his career.
  
  THE FUTURE: Dunning will begin 2021 at the back of Chicago’s rotation. His varied arsenal, control and pitchability should allow him to remain there long-term.
• December, 2020 Scouting Report
  Fastball: 55. Slider: 60. Changeup: 55. Curveball: 50. Control: 55.
  
  TRACK RECORD: The Nationals selected Dunning in the first round in 2016 and sent him to the White Sox with Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo Lopez in exchange for outfielder Adam Eaton that winter. Dunning missed all of 2019 recovering from Tommy John surgery, but he returned in 2020 and went 2-0, 3.97 in seven big league starts.
  
  SCOUTING REPORT: Dunning was primarily a sinker/slider pitcher in college but has expanded his repertoire as a pro. He added a four-seam fastball after joining the White Sox and tweaked his curveball grip with help from veteran righthander James Shields. Along with his changeup, the enhancements gave Dunning a varied, five-pitch mix. Nothing is overpowering, but Dunning mixes and matches to keep hitters off balance. His 91-93 mph sinker and low-80s slider remain his primary weapons and he throws his four- seam fastball, curveball and changeup enough to keep batters guessing. His walk rate was a tick high in his major league debut, but he throws everything for strikes and has demonstrated above-average control throughout his career.
  
  THE FUTURE: Dunning will begin 2021 at the back of Chicago’s rotation. His varied arsenal, control and pitchability should allow him to remain there long-term.
• July, 2020 Scouting Report
  TRACK RECORD: Just months after being drafted by the Nationals, Dunning was dealt to the White Sox with righties Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo Lopez as the price to bring outfielder Adam Eaton to Washington. He was impressive in his first two seasons with the White Sox but an elbow strain late in 2018 led to Tommy John surgery that cost him all of the 2019 season.
  
  SCOUTING REPORT: Before the surgery, Dunning had the makings of a classic sinker/slider starter. He worked his low-to-mid-90s heater toward the bottom of the zone—he’d been making special effort to max out his extension to maximize the pitch’s effectiveness—and couples that with a mid-80s slider with 10-to-4 break. He moved to a spike grip on his curveball, which has above-average potential. He also throws a mid-80s slider that could be above-average if it reaches its potential.
  
  THE FUTURE: Dunning had Tommy John surgery in mid-March 2019, meaning he will likely miss the first part of the 2020 regular season. Dunning has returned to the mound, and was throwing at the team’s complex in Glendale in November. If he returns to his pre-surgery form, he could nestle into the middle of a young, talented White Sox rotation.
• February, 2020 Scouting Report
  TRACK RECORD: Just months after being drafted by the Nationals, Dunning was dealt to the White Sox with righties Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo Lopez as the price to bring outfielder Adam Eaton to Washington. He was impressive in his first two seasons with the White Sox but an elbow strain late in 2018 led to Tommy John surgery that cost him all of the 2019 season.
  
  SCOUTING REPORT: Before the surgery, Dunning had the makings of a classic sinker/slider starter. He worked his low-to-mid-90s heater toward the bottom of the zone—he'd been making special effort to max out his extension to maximize the pitch's effectiveness—and couples that with a mid-80s slider with 10-to-4 break. He moved to a spike grip on his curveball, which has above-average potential. He also throws a mid-80s slider that could be above-average if it reaches its potential.
  
  THE FUTURE: Dunning had Tommy John surgery in mid-March 2019, meaning he will likely miss the first part of the 2020 regular season. Dunning has returned to the mound, and was throwing at the team's complex in Glendale in November. If he returns to his pre-surgery form, he could nestle into the middle of a young, talented White Sox rotation.
• July, 2018 Scouting Report
  The White Sox briefly returned Dunning to high Class A Winston-Salem to begin the year. Part of that decision involved a numbers game at Double-A, but another was to have him continue to work with pitching coach Matt Zaleski before Dunning moved up. He added a curveball this year and, like last year, was continuing to work on staying on top of his sinker in order to gain its maximum effect before a strained right elbow at midseason put him out of action for what the team believes will be between 4-8 weeks.
• December, 2017 Scouting Report
  Track Record: The White Sox targeted Dunning in the 2016 draft, but the Nationals took him at the end of the first round before Chicago had a chance to grab him. Six months later, the White Sox acquired Dunning from the Nationals along with Reynaldo Lopez and Lucas Giolito for Adam Eaton. Scouting Report: Dunning operates primarily with a sinker and a slider, but he has a changeup as well. He sits in the low to mid-90s, peaking at 96 mph. When his delivery is clicking, Dunning features heavy sink and will coax hitters into beating the ball into the ground. He struggled at times to get out over his front side, which had a flattening effect on his stuff and resulted in an elevated--and out-of-character--home run rate of 1.1 per nine innings at high Class A Winston-Salem. Dunning's slider and changeup, both thrown in the low to mid-80s, have at least above-average potential. To maintain consistency and crispness on his pitches, he needs to stay tall through his delivery. The Future: Dunning will likely join Alec Hansen atop a talented rotation at Double-A Birmingham in 2018. With three quality pitches and a clean, repeatable delivery, Dunning has mid-rotation potential.