AJ Reed

Organization Prospect Rankings

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  Ranked Houston Astros #24 prospect in 2018
  For the second time in three seasons, Reed led the minors with 34 home runs. But this home run title isn't as encouraging as the last one. In 2015, Reed was a first baseman on his way up who was set to compete for the Astros' big league job in 2016. In 2017, he remained in Fresno for all but a two-game cameo and was not among the team's September callups, even though he is on the team's 40-man roster. Reed's power has never been in doubt, and when he's locked in, he drives the ball to all fields, capably using left field. He adjusted his stance, moving up his hands and laying his bat over his shoulder in his setup, and it paid off as he slugged over .600 in July and August. But he's yet to show he can avoid chasing sliders off the plate and he's been an easy mark for lefthanders. Scouts have long thought Reed would be more nimble if he were 20-30 pounds lighter. His near bottom-of-the-scale speed limits him both on the basepaths and at first, although his plus arm is an asset. It's hard to see Reed pushing aside Yuli Gurriel, and Colin Moran has passed him as a backup plan. He might need a change of scenery. Slugging first basemen/DH's don't land much in trade unless they've produced at the big league level, so for now, he's headed back to Triple-A.
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  Ranked Houston Astros #5 prospect in 2017
  One of the best hitters in the minors in 2015 and the BA College Player of the Year in 2014, Reed produced at Triple-A Fresno in 2016, hitting .291/.368/.556 in 70 games. But in 45 games with the big league club, he looked helpless against good breaking balls, showing very little of his trademark power. Reed failed in 2016 for the first time in years. He still showed patience and plus power in the Pacific Coast League, but with Houston he was too pull-happy and must prove he can lay off sliders out of the strike zone. Reed has adequate but not exceptional bat speed, so he has to show he can make adjustments to translate his exceptional minor league performance to the big leagues. For a second straight season, he reported to camp about 20-30 pounds beyond his ideal weight, which did not help his bat speed or his nimbleness at first base. Reed scoops balls well at first and, as a former pitcher, has a plus arm. Slow-footed, slugging first basemen face plenty of skepticism until they hit at the big league level. Because they are aiming to win, the Astros aren't in a position to give Reed an extended trial, so he'll have to fight for an opportunity. His ceiling is still that of a plus hitter with plus power, but he now faces healthy skepticism in the industry.
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  Ranked Houston Astros #1 prospect in 2016
  When Reed arrived at Kentucky as a freshman, he'd been drafted by the Mets, who didn't sign him in part because they couldn't decide if he was a better prospect as a pitcher or a hitter. Kentucky's coaching staff saw him as a potential ace who as a bonus would be able to hit as well. He lived up to every expectation as a pitcher--he went 19-13, 2.83 in three seasons at Kentucky--but was an even better hitter. Reed was Baseball America's College Player of the Year in 2014 after hitting .336/.476/.735 with an NCAA-best 23 home runs. Reed's 23 home runs was more than 185 NCAA Division I teams hit that year. Reed also joined David Price and Dave Magadan as the only unanimous Southeastern Conference Player of the Year honorees. Reed was Kentucky's Friday starter and served as the DH all weekend to keep his body fresh. Reed was a legitimate draft prospect as a pitcher with an 88-92 mph fastball, but he was a much better prospect as a hitter. Reed followed up his excellent 2014 college season by finishing as runner-up for Baseball America's Minor League Player of the Year award in 2015. Reed led the minors in home runs (34), RBIs (127), slugging percentage (.612) and OPS (1.044). He dominated the minors despite coming into the season out of shape by his own account--he showed up at 285 pounds, at least 25 pounds heavier than he hopes to play at in 2016. He finished his season with 11 middling games in the Arizona Fall League. Reed has outstanding power and pairs it with an excellent batting eye. That selectivity allows him to hit for average and get on base as well. Reed's swing has some length and he has long arms that can get tied up. His above-average bat speed combined with his natural strength gives him 70-grade raw power. Reed's selectivity is exceptional. He doesn't just differentiate between balls and strikes, he also takes strikes he can't drive. He's comfortable hitting behind in the count and has an advanced two-strike approach. His ability to spoil pitches explains his surprisingly modest strikeout rate (20 percent) considering how much power he hits for in games. He uses the entire field, something that improved even more after he moved up Double-A Corpus Christi-the wind at the Hooks home park' usually blows directly in from right field, punishing lefthanded hitters for a dead-pull approach. The biggest knock on Reed offensively is he is much more comfortable facing righthanded pitchers. He hit .238/.320/.397 against lefthanders after his promotion to Double-A. Reed is adequate at best defensively at first base. If he shows up in better shape in 2016, it should improve his agility. His hands and arm are fine but he doesn't have much range or speed. Reed's upside is significant. He has a chance to become one of the rare players who can produce above-average on-base and slugging percentages thanks to selectivity and excellent power. He hasn't shown he can do the same damage against lefthanders and he still can be induced to chase a good breaking ball, so the Astros have some incentive to be patient and let him head to Triple-A to start the 2016 season. But he will get a chance to compete for a big league job in spring training.
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  Ranked Houston Astros #16 prospect in 2015
  Reed pitched and hit in high school and at Kentucky, and scouts long were divided over which was his ultimate destination as a pro. He did both exceptionally well in 2014, tying for the Southeastern Conference lead with 12 wins while leading the nation in home runs (23) and slugging (.735). The combination made him the College Player of the Year and Golden Spikes Award winner, and the offensive explosion convinced scouts he fits better as a hitter. After signing for $1.35 million as the 42nd overall pick in 2014, Reed had a solid pro debut, showing plus power to all fields and joining fellow draftee J.D. Davis at low Class A Quad Cities in August. Reed was not selective when his pro career began but made adjustments as the season went on and now understands that pitchers can locate better than in college. Power is Reed's lone plus tool, and he's a raw defender at first base, where he did not take groundballs often, even in practice, at Kentucky to conserve energy. He's fairly light on his feet, but he doesn't run well enough to give the outfield a try. Reed should start at high Class A Lancaster in 2015.

Draft Prospects

• Ranked #41 prospect in 2014 draft
  The Mets drafted Reed as a pitcher out of high school in Terre Haute, Ind., in 2011, but even they were split over whether he fit better as a hitter or as a lefthander long-term. He's been one of college baseball's top two-way performers since his freshman season and was a strong candidate for College Player of the Year honors in 2014, leading the nation in homers and slugging percentage with two regular-season weeks remaining. Reed, who has lost more than 15 pounds in the past year as he has firmed up his body, also has pitched Friday nights for the Wildcats and was 8-2, 2.20 through 12 starts. He's likely a fifth-round talent on the mound, with an 88-91 mph fastball and three fringe-average secondary pitches. But his power and performance with the bat in the Southeastern Conference pushed him into first-round consideration. While some scouts knock his bat speed, Reed is patient, has an improved approach and an easy swing, and his strength plays with tape-measure home runs. His swing can get long, but he has waited pitchers out and pounded pitches in his happy zone, including a 12-for-28 mark with three home runs on Friday nights. Reed has baseball athleticism and has shortened his swing up, but he's a poor runner who likely can't move to the outfield. He could fall back to pitching, but he keeps erasing doubters one homer at a time.

Minor League Top Prospects

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  Ranked Pacific Coast League #8 prospect in 2016
  Reed starred as a two-way player at Kentucky in 2014, when he claimed the BA College Player of the Year award. After showing up overweight to his first spring training in 2015, Reed started slowly but rebounded to lead the minors in homers (34), RBIs (127), slugging (.612) and OPS (1.044). Reed took on the PCL in 2016 and played to his strengths with plus power, above-average feel to hit and strong strike-zone judgment. He made his big league debut on June 25 but struggled in Houston, where he is the likely long-term answer at first base. In addition to his mammoth power, he has great feel for the game and, despite being a poor runner, more athleticism than his frame suggests. Reed improved as a defender at first base, though he grades as below-average, and grew more confident in his ability to throw the ball across the diamond. He projects to hit at least 25 home runs, with a good two-strike approach and batting eye to bolster his on-base percentage.
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  Ranked Texas League #6 prospect in 2015
  Reed won the California League MVP award on the strength of a strong three-month stretch at high Class A Lancaster before he joined Corpus Christi on July 12. All told , he led the minors with 34 homers, 127 RBIs, 113 runs, a .612 slugging percentage and a 1.044 OPS. Reed served as Kentucky's Friday night starter and a Southeastern Conference ace just two years ago, but now he's combating doubts about his jumbo body type and poor conditioning as a pro first baseman. Reed has a long swing and a hitch as he loads up, but he has worked to minimize the arm bar that slowed his bat against premium velocity. Some scouts question his hit tool, but he hit .340 at two minor league stops in 2015. He has a predilection to pull the ball but also has shown the ability to drive the ball for power to all fields. Reed's combination of plus power and selectivity with an average hit tool portend at least solid major league production. He's a well below-average runner and also a poor defensive first baseman with below-average lateral agility and raw footwork.
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  Ranked California League #3 prospect in 2015
  Reed won the Cal League MVP award after batting .346/.449/.638 and leading the circuit in all three triple-slash categories. He led in the traditional triple crown categories as well at the time the Astros promoted him to Double-A Corpus Christi in mid-July. He finished the year as the minor league leader for homers (34) and OPS (1.044), among other things. While Lancaster has earned its reputation as a hitter's paradise, Reed hardly needed the bump. One evaluator said he could have double-plus power, and he can pummel balls out to any part of the park. His swing is direct to the ball with little wasted motion, and he consistently puts together quality at-bats. His knowledge of the strike zone and pitch recognition are advanced, and he takes his walks if pitchers don't give him a pitch he's looking for. Cal League observers did not view the hulking Reed as a liability at first base. His range is below-average, but he's athletic enough and has above-average arm strength.
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  Ranked New York-Penn League #11 prospect in 2014
  Reed led NCAA Division I in home runs while also serving as an ace pitcher in the rugged Southeastern Conference this spring, helping him win every major college player of the year award. He kept on mashing in the NYPL to earn a late-July promotion to low Class A. Reed stands out for his mammoth lefthanded power. His swing has some length and an arm bar, causing some scouts to question how his hit tool will play at higher levels, but he controls the strike zone and routinely makes very hard contact. Some teams have had success applying a shift against Reed, because he is pull-oriented, but he can also drive balls to the opposite gap and over the left-center fence. Reed is a below-average runner and is a work in progress at first base. He spent most of his junior year pitching and DHing, but he handled himself fine around the bag for Tri-City and should be an adequate defender with a strong arm.

Top 100 Rankings

• Ranked Baseball America's #72 prospect in 2017
• Ranked Baseball America's #11 prospect in 2016

• December, 2016 Scouting Report
  Background: One of the best hitters in the minors in 2015 and the BA College Player of the Year in 2014, Reed produced at Triple-A Fresno in 2016, hitting .291/.368/.556 in 70 games. But in 45 games with the big league club, he looked helpless against good breaking balls, showing very little of the power that had been his calling card. Scouting Report: For the first time in years, Reed failed in 2016. He still showed patience and plus power in the Pacific Coast League, but with Houston he was too pull-happy and must prove he can lay off sliders out of the strike zone. Reed has adequate but not exceptional bat speed, so he has to show he can make adjustments to translate his exceptional minor league performance to the big leagues. For a second straight season, Reed reported to camp about 20-30 pounds beyond his ideal weight, which did not help his bat speed or his nimbleness at first base. Reed scoops balls well at first and, as a former pitcher, has a plus arm.
  
  The Future: Slow-footed, slugging first basemen face plenty of skepticism until they hit at the big league level. The Astros aren't in a position to give Reed an extended trial, so he'll have to fight for an opportunity. His ceiling is still that of a plus hitter with plus power, but there's a significant amount of skepticism.