Robert Stephenson

Organization Prospect Rankings

• 
  Ranked Cincinnati Reds #4 prospect in 2017
  Stephenson made his big league debut in 2016 and works with as many as three above-average pitches, but his development has been anything but smooth since he reached Double-A Pensacola for the first time in 2013. The 2011 first-rounder cruised through Class A but has shown well below-average control in the upper minors with 4.8 walks per nine innings, and he recorded a similar rate in his first 37 big league innings. The high-90s fastball Stephenson once pitched with has not been present for two years. He generally pitches at 91-94 mph and will bump 96 when needed. He gets downhill plane on both his two- and four-seam fastballs, sticking predominantly with his four-seamer. He can now throw his above-average curveball for strikes and bury it for a chase pitch, but he needs to emphasize staying on top of it. Stephenson's split-changeup is crucial to his outlook but lacks consistency. It flashes above-average with late tumble but just as often lacks deception and movement. A number of Reds officials believe Stephenson has become too reliant on his offspeed pitches rather than pitching off his fastball. Stephenson has struggled in a similar manner as Homer Bailey, a prep first-round righthander drafted by the Reds in 2004. Stephenson can reach a mid-rotation starter ceiling if he sharpens his control, as Bailey did, and he has no glaring delivery flaws to resolve. He should return to the Reds rotation in 2017.
• 
  Ranked Cincinnati Reds #1 prospect in 2016
  Stephenson was the first high school pitcher the Reds had selected in the first round since picking Homer Bailey in 2004. Like Bailey, Stephenson has risen through the minors on the basis of a high-90s fastball and a hardbreaking curveball. And like Bailey, Stephenson found the going much tougher once he reached the upper levels of the minors. Bailey reached the majors in his fourth pro season, 2007, but didn't arrive for good until 2010. Stephenson reached Triple-A Louisville in his fourth pro season, but he still is a little ways away from being ready for the big league rotation. The Reds did not call up Stephenson in September even though he will be added to the 40-man roster this offseason to protect him from the Rule 5 draft. The Reds used nine other rookie starters, so it wasn't for lack of opportunity or a roster spot. After Bailey's early big league struggles, the Reds have learned to take it slow, so Stephenson spent more than a year and a half at Double-A Pensacola in 2014 and 2015. The Reds now believe it's better to let Stephenson work through his control problems in the minors rather than in the majors where he'll be building service time. For years, hitters have known that when Stephenson gets ahead in the count, they have to watch out for his double-plus curveball. This year, he gave them something else to worry about. He went back to the split-changeup grip he used in high school. The Reds had taken the pitch away earlier in Stephenson's career because they felt it was harder on his elbow. He grew more and more comfortable with his old/new change in 2015, and now it garners plus grades most outings and has gotten double-plus grades on better nights. That's a vast improvement over the fringy traditional changeup he threw last year. He commands it better and it has more late action, generating more weak contact and swings and misses. But as his changeup improved, Stephenson's curveball seemed to back up. While his curve still is a 70 pitch at its best, Stephenson didn't locate it nearly as well or throw it nearly as often in 2015. His fastball also backed up. He dialed back his velocity significantly in an attempt to be more precise. The 94-99 mph he showed in the past became 92-94 with the occasional 97. Stephenson's delivery has no major flaws, but he has below-average control which stems from when he fails to stay tall in his delivery, collapsing too much on his back leg. When that happens, he throws uphill, which makes it hard for him to locate down in the zone. Throwing strikes is the No. 1 goal for Stephenson. Even with a reduction in his velocity, he has three plus pitches to toy with hitters if he can get ahead in counts. In the 14 starts in which he threw at least 60 percent strikes, he went 6-3, 2.39 with 90 strikeouts and 28 walks in 87 innings, but he had a 6.85 ERA in outings where he threw less than 60 percent strikes. Stephenson has front-of-the-rotation stuff that he will realize with better control. An assignment to Louisville seems probable in 2016, as does an in-season callup to the rebuilding Reds.
• 
  Ranked Cincinnati Reds #1 prospect in 2015
  A member of an excellent 2011 high school pitching class that included Jose Fernandez, Dylan Bundy, Archie Bradley, Daniel Norris and Henry Owens, Stephenson has arguably the best pure arm strength of that group, though he has moved more slowly up the ladder than some of his peers (Fernandez, Bundy and Norris have reached the big leagues). After a dominating 2013 season that concluded with a poor stint at Double-A Pensacola, Stephenson threw five dominant innings for the Blue Wahoos in his 2014 debut, striking out 11, walking one and allowing only one hit in five scoreless innings. That proved to be his season highlight, for he never reached double-digits in strikeouts again, and he pitched through seven innings just three times all season. Stephenson was durable, but he also wasn't very effective. He led the Southern League in strikeouts (140) and finished second in opponent average (.224), but he also led in home runs (18) and walks allowed (74) and finished second worst in the league in ERA among qualifiers. Stephenson's stuff didn't back up even while his ERA ballooned to 4.74. He still could run his double-plus fastball up to 99 mph at times and still sat 93-96. His 80-82 mph curveball still is a hard-breaking yo-yo that some scouts also project to end up as a double-plus pitch. And while his changeup is clearly his third pitch, it shows flashes of potential when he's not throwing it too firmly. Stephenson's feel for the game has not caught up to his stuff. He is prone to overthrowing when he gets in trouble. Much too often, Stephenson will try to throw an absolutely perfect curveball when he gets in trouble, which usually means he misses with it. The same problem happens with his fastball. Instead of taking a bit off to gain improved command of his heater, he humps up, which leads to him missing his target. Stephenson is slow to the plate and doesn't control the running game--12 of 13 basestealers were successful against him in 2014. There's nothing wrong with Stephenson that experience shouldn't fix. His delivery is relatively clean, and he has shown in the past that he can throw strikes, even if his 2014 walk rate indicates fringe-average control. Much like Homer Bailey before him, Stephenson has to learn that a plus-plus fastball isn't always enough to succeed against more advanced hitters. Scouts and managers who saw him in the Southern League generally still project Stephenson as a front-end starter and thought of him as one of the more promising arms in baseball. Because he hasn't mastered Double-A yet, Stephenson could end up heading back to Pensacola for a tuneup in 2015 . Even if he doesn't begin the season in a crowded Triple-A Louisville rotation, he should get there before long. He should be part of the Reds' rotation in 2016 if he shows the expected improvements. He has all the makings of a future No. 2 starter, even if his 2014 season didn't offer a whole lot of statistical evidence.
• 
  Ranked Cincinnati Reds #1 prospect in 2014
  Hindsight confirms what scouts thought at the time--the 2011 class of high school righthanders was one of the best in years. Jose Fernandez pitched like an ace for the Marlins in 2013. The Orioles' Dylan Bundy had Tommy John surgery, but not before reaching the big leagues in 2012, and the Diamondbacks' Archie Bradley isn't far away. And then there's Stephenson, who fell to the 27th pick in part because of the large number of talented high school pitchers in his class. The righthander sometimes gets lost in the shuffle but has some of the best pure stuff in the minors. After a rocky April, Stephenson settled down to allow four earned runs in his next eight starts, including a May 30 gem where he carried a perfect game into the sixth inning with Reds general manager Walt Jocketty in attendance. A hamstring injury kept him out of the Midwest League all-star game and kept him off the mound for most of June, but he quickly recovered to earn a mid-July promotion to high Class A Bakersfield. Just four starts later, he was pitching for Double-A Pensacola. Stephenson's fastball seems to gain a tick each year, going from a 92-95 mph pitch fresh out of the draft to the 94-99 fireball he throws now. He's done it while toning down a delivery that had some effort in high school but is now relatively free and easy. He has a stab in the back of his delivery, but it has not interfered with his ability to throw strikes. Stephenson added a two-seamer back to his repertoire this year, though his season took off when he went back to pitching more off his four-seamer. His four-seam fastball lacks much life, but because he generally locates it well, it's still a plus-plus pitch. His 76-80 mph curveball gives Stephenson a second potential 70 pitch on the 20-80 scouting scale. He can bury it or throw it for strikes, and it is an excellent two-strike weapon with a big 12-to-6 break. Stephenson has improved his 86-88 mph changeup to the point where it's an average offering and could end up as a third plus pitch. Stephenson threw a split-finger fastball in high school, but the Reds shelved it. With the quality of his three present offerings, there's no real pressure to bring it back. He has present average control, but needs to improve his command to be ready for Cincinnati. Barring a trade, the Reds' rotation is set for 2014, but Stephenson could be ready to help as a midseason injury replacement. By 2015, the Reds will be making room for him at the front of its rotation if everything progresses as planned.
• 
  Ranked Cincinnati Reds #2 prospect in 2013
  He has pitched just 65 pro innings, but Stephenson already has shown the best pure stuff of any Reds draftee back to at least 2004 first-rounder Homer Bailey. Signed for $2 million as the 27th overall pick in 2011, he ranked as the Rookie-level Pioneer League's top pitching prospect in his pro debut last summer. Stephenson's fastball velocity has improved in pro ball, rising from 92-95 in his draft year to 93-97 in 2012, and he touched 100 mph at low Class A Dayton. His heater has excellent life as well. What makes him stand out from the average prep flamethrower is that he also has a good feel for his secondary pitches. His changeup also has gotten better since his high school days, and some scouts project it as a plus pitch. His curveball has similar potential. Stephenson can get too intense at times--he sometimes throws in the mid-90s warming up in the bullpen--and needs to avoid rushing his delivery, which detracts from his control. Cincinnati kept a tight leash on Stephenson and will turn him loose in 2013, when he'll open back in low Class A. He has all of the ingredients to become a frontline starter.
• 
  Ranked Cincinnati Reds #7 prospect in 2012
  It didn't take long for Stephenson to make his pitch for a spot in the first round of the 2011 draft. He threw back-to-back no-hitters in his first two starts, striking out 20 in the second game. After the Reds selected him 27th overall, the Washington recruit waited until the Aug. 15 signing deadline before agreeing to a $2 million bonus. Thanks to his California pedigree, Stephenson is relatively polished for a high school righthander. His fastball made him a first-round pick, as he sits at 92-95 mph and touches 97 mph. His clean delivery allows him to command his fastball and maintain his velocity. He shows the ability to spin a curveball and an understanding of how to throw a changeup, but neither is a consistently effective pitch yet. He also threw a splitter in high school, but Cincinnati has taken it away because of concerns it could lead to elbow problems. Because he's advanced for his age, Stephenson has a chance to make his pro debut at low Class A Dayton. If he starts the year in extended spring training and reports to Rookie-level Billings in June, he'd still be on a normal pace for a high school draftee. He has the upside of a frontline starter but will need time to develop.

Minor League Top Prospects

• 
  Ranked Southern League #12 prospect in 2015
  The No. 1 pitching prospect in the SL a year ago, Stephenson produced mixed results as he repeated the level in 2015. On the one hand, he missed more bats and allowed fewer hits, yet he continued to walk an excessive number of batters--4.9 per nine innings--and pitched to a 3.68 ERA that didn't clear the SL average (3.81) by much. The Reds promoted him to Triple-A Louisville in early July. Stephenson dialed back his plus fastball from the mid-90s in 2014 to the low 90s this season as he attempted to throw more strikes and generate more life on his pitches. He still had 99 mph velocity in his back pocket--not to mention a low-80s, hammer curveball--when he needed it. Multiple evaluators even commented that Stephenson had dramatically improved the quality of his changeup to a consistent plus grade, giving him three electric weapons on some nights. Yet Stephenson, despite plus athleticism, struggled to stay in his delivery, often failing to stay tall and collapsing his back side, which led to below-average command and inconsistent feel for his pitches. He has the weapons to dominate in a relief role--a la the Royals' Wade Davis--but too much upside to forfeit a future as a front-line starter.
• 
  Ranked International League #11 prospect in 2015
  Stephenson opened the season at Double-A Pensacola for a second straight year before making his Triple-A debut in early July. He averaged 8.3 strikeouts and 4.4 walks per nine innings at Louisville, often struggling to command his overpowering and tantalizing stuff. At his best, Stephenson can reach triple digits with his fastball, though he worked primarily in the low 90s in an attempt to improve his command. It didn't work, with observers noting Stephenson's reluctance to make adjustments. He mixes in a knee-buckling curveball--a second potentially above-average pitch--and added a split-finger fastball that has surpassed his changeup in quality and gives him yet another swing-and-miss offering. Finding command would allow Stephenson to fill a role at the top of a rotation rather than the back of a bullpen.
• 
  Ranked Southern League #4 prospect in 2014
  One of the youngest starters in the SL, Stephenson all too often showed his youth in his first full season at Double-A. Among qualified league starters, only Birmingham's Myles Jaye had a higher ERA (5.32), only Tennessee's Corey Black had a higher walk rate (5.1 per nine innings) and nobody allowed more home runs (18). Scouts still favor Stephenson, however, because his stuff and ideal frame give him a ceiling as high as any pitcher in the minors. He pitches at 93-95 mph with a double-plus fastball, and he can dial the pitch up to 99 with boring life in on the hands of righthanders. His plus curveball sits in the low 80s and helped him lead the SL with 140 strikeouts. Stephenson continues to improve his changeup, though his biggest problems in 2014 centered on well below-average command and a tendency to elevate his pitches. Also, league managers noted that he struggled with runners on base, tending to overthrow and become predictably fastball-oriented. In fact, batters hit .248/.352/.461--higher than the league-wide averages--when Stephenson operated from the stretch. "We saw him up to 99 (mph) with a wipeout breaking ball at times, and he continues to develop feel for his changeup," Mobile manager Andy Green said. "He needs to continue to improve his control and command, but I think he's going to be a big league starter with three effective pitches."
• 
  Ranked Midwest League #3 prospect in 2013
  Astros righthander Mark Appel, the No. 1 pick in the 2013 draft, didn?t have enough innings to qualify for the Top 20, but if he had he would have ranked behind Stephenson. Scouts who saw both in the MWL clearly favored the Dayton righthander. Stephenson got a little too infatuated with his two-seam fastball early in the season, but he started using the 94-98 mph four-seamer more in late April. Combined with improved control of his potentially plus breaking ball and potentially above-average changeup, he proved too much for MWL hitters. ?I love his fastball and his poise for young guy.? a scout with an American League organization said. ?He takes something off when he?s in trouble. He pitches backwards at times.? Stephenson went 5-0, 1.64 in his final six starts before a midseason promotion to high Class A Bakersfield. The 20-year-old made it to Double-A by the end of the season and projects as a front-end starter.
• 
  Ranked Pioneer League #2 prospect in 2012
  Billings' Dehler Park is the closest thing the Pioneer League has to a pitcher's park, but that doesn't overshadowed what Stephenson accomplished there before moving up to low Class A. The 2011 first-round pick signed late for $2 million last summer and made his pro debut with the Mustangs, giving up just seven earned runs in seven starts while limiting opponents to a .193 average. Stephenson sits at 94-96 mph and touches 98 with his fastball. He also has a quality changeup, giving him the best 1-2 combination of pitches in the league. He commands both sides of the plate, and if his curveball realize his potential as a plus pitch, he can be a No. 1 starter. "The stuff is there, the command is there and the feel for the game is there," Billings manager Pat Kelly said. "He just needs to go out and pitch for a few years."

Top 100 Rankings

• Ranked Baseball America's #32 prospect in 2016
• Ranked Baseball America's #23 prospect in 2015
• Ranked Baseball America's #19 prospect in 2014
• Ranked Baseball America's #56 prospect in 2013

• December, 2016 Scouting Report
  Background: Stephenson made his big league debut in 2016 and works with as many as three above-average pitches, but his development has been anything but smooth since he reached Double-A Pensacola for the first time in 2013. The 2011 first-rounder cruised through Class A but has shown well below-average control at Double-A and Triple-A with 4.8 walks per nine innings, and he recorded a similar rate in his first 37 big league innings. Scouting Report: The high-90s fastball Stephenson once pitched with has not been present for two years. He generally pitches at 91-94 mph and will bump 96 when needed. He gets downhill plane on both his two- and four-seam fastballs, sticking predominantly to his four-seamer. He can now throw his above-average curveball for strikes and bury it for a chase pitch, but he needs to emphasize staying on top of the pitch. Stephenson's split-changeup is crucial to his outlook but the pitch lacks consistency. His split flashes above-average with late tumble but just as often lacks deception and movement.
  
  The Future: Stephenson has struggled in a similar manner as Homer Bailey, a prep first-round righthander drafted by the Reds in 2004. Stephenson can reach a mid-rotation starter ceiling if he sharpens his control, as Bailey did, and he has no glaring delivery flaw to resolve.
• December, 2012 Scouting Report
  Background: He has pitched just 65 pro innings, but Stephenson already has shown the best pure stuff of any Reds draftee dating back to at least 2004 first-rounder Homer Bailey. Signed for $2 million as the 27th overall pick in 2011, he ranked as the Rookie-level Pioneer League's top pitching prospect in his pro debut last summer and was equally impressive in his best starts after a promotion to low Class A Dayton. Scouting Report: Stephenson's fastball velocity has improved in pro ball, rising from 92-95 in his draft year to 93-97 in 2012, and he touched 100 mph at low Class A Dayton. His heater has excellent life as well. What makes him stand out from the average prep flamethrower is that he also has a good feel for his secondary pitches. His changeup also has gotten better since his high school days, and some scouts project it as a plus pitch. His curveball has similar potential. Stephenson can get too intense at times--he sometimes throws in the mid-90s warming up in the bullpen--and needs to avoid rushing his delivery, which detracts from his control. The Future: Cincinnati kept a tight leash on Stephenson and will turn him loose in 2013, when he'll open back in low Class A. He has all of the ingredients to become a frontline starter.