Luiz Gohara

Organization Prospect Rankings

• 
  Ranked Atlanta Braves #10 prospect in 2019
  Track Record: Few players had a rougher 2018 than Gohara. Acquired from the Mariners for Shae Simmons and Mallex Smith, Gohara climbed from high Class A to make five major league starts in 2017. His father died in his arms during the offseason, and he left with team permission during the season to be with his mother as she had heart surgery. He missed most of spring training with an ankle injury and finished the season on the disabled list with a shoulder injury.
  
  Scouting Report: Gohara's conditioning was a problem in 2018. It affected his arm speed, and his fastball dipped from 95-99 mph to 91-95. His slider also backed up. It's impossible to know if his previously top-of-the-scale fastball and plus-plus slider will return, but even if he finds a midpoint between 2017 and 2018, he would have a pair of plus pitches. He needs to improve his below-average changeup if he's going to work as a starte.
  
  The Future: The Braves said that Gohara lost 35 pounds while working out in Orlando after the season. When everything is working properly, He has one of the best arms in baseball. He rarely showed his best stuff in 2018, but between the injuries and off-field tragedy, there is reason to hope he can return to form in 2019. With so many pitching prospects in the upper minors, 2019 may be Gohara's last chance to show the Braves what he can do.
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  Ranked Atlanta Braves #2 prospect in 2018
  Coming into 2017, Gohara was largely seen as a high-ceiling tease. His development was slowed by disagreements with the Mariners front office over his conditioning. Traded to the Braves for righthander Shae Simmons and Mallex Smith in January 2017, Gohara seemed to embrace the Braves' lighter touch, and he advanced three minor league levels before reaching Atlanta in September. Gohara's pure stuff compares favorably with anyone. In just 29 big league innings, he threw more 98-plus mph fastballs than any other lefty starter. His 95-99 mph fastball generates top-of-the-scale grades and his 82-85 mph slider is equally impressive because it looks like his fastball coming out of his hand before diving with late tilt. He shows some feel for a changeup and throws hard enough that the change of pace gives it some deception, but it lacks late fade and he struggles to keep it on the edges of the plate. He will need to refine if it's going to be anything more than a show-me pitch. Gohara's control is fringe-average at best, but he has made significant strides and should develop average control. Gohara's speedy climb in 2017 ensures he will go to spring training competing for a spot in the rotation. He has the potential to be a front-line starter, though his lack of a track record of durability is a concern.
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  Ranked Seattle Mariners #3 prospect in 2017
  The Mariners signed Gohara for $880,000 as a 16-year international free agent out of Brazil in 2012 based on a fastball that could already reach 94 mph, but in succeeding years he frustrated the organization as his weight ballooned to 250 pounds and he showed little work ethic or dedication to competing on the mound. He finally had a breakthrough and shed 30 pounds in 2016 after being ticketed for extended spring training for the fourth straight year. Gohara's rededication to his fitness led to a jump in his stuff across the board. His fastball now sits 95-98 mph and gets up to 100 after he previously struggled to maintain those velocities. His slurvy slider became a mid-80s swing-and-miss pitch with increased velocity and depth, in large part because of added strength and stability in his lower half after cutting weight from his upper body. His three-quarters arm slot and improved stuff made him difficult to square up even after a midseason promotion to low Class A Clinton. Lefties in particular had a tough time with Gohara, hitting .227/.261/.295 off him. His fastball-slider combo gives him two future plus to double-plus pitches, and his changeup progressed to fringe-average as learned to take velocity off while keeping the same arm speed. His control comes and goes, though it improved with his newfound focus on repeating his delivery and mechanics. His total package was on display in the Arizona Fall League, where Gohara posted a 3.86 ERA with 19 strikeouts and just three walks in 11.2 innings despite being on the youngest pitchers in the league. Gohara is finally moving in the right direction to reach his No. 2 or 3 starter potential. He will begin 2017 at high Class A Modesto.
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  Ranked Seattle Mariners #6 prospect in 2016
  Gohara returned to the short-season Northwest League for a second straight season and showed signs of becoming the power pitcher the Mariners envisioned when they signed him for $800,000 out of Brazil in 2012. The hulking lefty didn't yield an earned run until his third start--when he gave up five in five innings, an indication of his still less-than-stellar command. At his best, Gohara overwhelms hitters with a 92-94 mph fastball that tops out in the upper 90s. Lefties hit just .222 against him and struggled to pick the ball up out of his three-quarters arm slot, especially his average, slurvy slider with depth. When things aren't going his way, Gohara struggles to repeat his delivery and loses command. He's not particularly athletic and doesn't always seem to have his limbs moving together. As a result, his 62 strikeouts ranked fifth in the league while his 32 walks tied for the most in the NWL. His changeup is still developing and could become more effective when he learns to take off velocity. He made two spot starts with low Class A Clinton, yielding just two earned runs over 10 innings, and should get a chance to open next season in the Midwest League.
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  Ranked Seattle Mariners #8 prospect in 2015
  The word "polished" doesn't often describe a Brazilian baseball player, but Gohara fit the bill with years of baseball under his belt when he signed for $800,000 in 2012. The Mariners were impressed enough to push him right to Rookie-level Pulaski for his pro debut. Gohara's fast track through the minors hit a pothole at short-season Everett. He showed every reminder that he was one of the youngest players in the league. He struggled to repeat his delivery, didn't throw nearly enough strikes and was squared up too often when he did find the strike zone. In one start, Gohara gave up home runs to three of the first six batters he faced. In another, he walked three of the first five and hit another. The good news for Gohara is that his stuff was still apparent, and he stayed healthy after a balky shoulder limited his innings in 2013. He sits at 92-94 mph and will touch 96, and at times he showed a potentially above-average breaking ball to go with a changeup that flashes average.Gohara is farther away from the big leagues than he was when the season began. His control and feel both took steps back, but he's still a 6-foot-3 lefty who throws in the mid-90s, so he has plenty of time to get back on track as a potential mid-rotation starter.
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  Ranked Seattle Mariners #4 prospect in 2014
  Gohara was a baseball rat from the time he was young and began playing in national tournaments in Brazil by age 10. The Mariners signed him for $800,000 in 2012 and, in a rare move, had him skip the complex leagues and assigned him to Rookie-level Pulaski as a 16-year-old in 2013. He held his own again older competition, though he was slowed by a sore shoulder. The big-bodied Gohara has good stuff, but he must refine his secondary pitches. His fastball sits at 92-93 mph, occasionally reaches 96, and probably will sit more consistently at the upper range with more experience and strength. He throws a curveball and slider and both are inconsistent. Gohara's command of the changeup is also erratic but it has a chance to be a plus pitch because of its late fade. His delivery is sound and advanced for his age. However, Gohara tends to put on weight despite still being a teenager, and some scouts see a body type along the lines of a shorter version of C.C. Sabathia. He pitched just 22 innings in 2013 because of the balky shoulder. The Mariners don't want to greatly increase his workload in 2014, so he probably will be held back at extended spring training before a return trip to Pulaski. Based on his velocity and clean mechanics, Gohara has a chance to be at least a mid-rotation starter, and maybe more.
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  Ranked Seattle Mariners #12 prospect in 2013
  No player born and raised in Brazil has made it to the big leagues yet (Yan Gomes was born in Brazil but moved to the United States as a child), and the Mariners hope Gohara will be the first after making him the centerpiece of their 2012 international signing crop with an $880,000 bonus. He'll open the 2013 season at 16 and already has a burly frame with broad, square shoulders and long arms. He started playing in Brazilian amateur national tournaments when he was 10, and some scouts regarded him as the best pitcher available on this year's international market. Gohara's fastball sits at 88-91 mph and has been clocked as high as 94. His curveball shows the potential to be a plus pitch down the road, but he needs to be more consistent with it, and he will have to learn a changeup. He is surprisingly agile for his size and fared well in athletic tests during instructional league. He repeats his delivery well, shows rhythmic, balanced mechanics and a fast, clean arm action. The fact that the Mariners brought Gohara to instructs as a 16-year-old is encouraging, and coaches were impressed with his work ethic and aptitude. He spent part of the winter in the Mariners' Venezuelan academy to learn the organization's conditioning program. There's no need to rush him, so Gohara will stay in Arizona during extended spring training to continue to get adjusted to changes in culture, learn English and pitch in a low-stress environment. There's no higher risk than a 16-year-old pitcher, but his combination of size, stuff, athleticism and makeup give him the makings of a frontline starter and draw comparisons to C.C. Sabathia.

Minor League Top Prospects

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  Ranked Southern League #5 prospect in 2017
  Gohara failed to crack a full-season roster out of spring training in each of his four seasons with the Mariners, but he gained attention at low Class A Clinton when assigned there last July. The Braves looked past the work ethic questions surrounding Gohara, who could be as many as 80 pounds heavier than his listed weight of 210, when they traded for him in January. He reached the majors in September. Gohara sits 95-97 mph with his fastball, giving him uncommon arm strength from the left side. Athletic despite his jumbo frame, he repeats his mechanics and showed greater competitiveness this season by throwing more strikes with his fastball. Gohara's power mid-80s slider grades as plus--he just needs to improve the shape and arm speed of the pitch. Gohara throws a below-average changeup that the Braves had to force him to throw the second or third time through the order.
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  Ranked Midwest League #11 prospect in 2016
  The Mariners say Gohara, who signed for $800,000 in 2012, dropped about 30 pounds from his mature, 6-foot-3 frame, but scouts who saw him say he's still--to be polite--husky. He failed to crack a full-season Opening Day roster for a fourth straight year and didn't join Clinton until July 4. [Note: A previous version of this capsule incorrectly stated that Gohara will be Rule 5 draft-eligible this winter. In fact, he won't be eligible until after 2017.] Gohara appeared more athletic on the mound this season, making his delivery more repeatable and helping his control. He walked 3.3 batters per nine innings, which is a huge improvement from previous efforts, while striking out 60 in 54.1 innings. For a player just out of his teens, Gohara has great poise and combines that with two above-average pitches. His slider is a swing-and-miss offering and his fastball touches 100 mph on occasion, with 95-96 a more regular occurrence. He can cut and sink his fastball. He doesn't throw his changeup often and needs to gain more feel for it to round out his arsenal.
• 
  Ranked Northwest League #17 prospect in 2015
  What the NWL lacks in power position prospects it makes up for in young power lefthanders, including Gohara, who repeated the league as a teen. Gohara, who signed for $800,000 out of Brazil, impressed the Mariners enough to debut in the U.S. at age 16 but has struggled to throw strikes thus far in his career. Gohara began the year at low Class A Clinton but was demoted after walking six in 9 2/3 innings. He seemed to straighten things out when he first got back to Everett but saw his walk rate spike the final two months. Still, Gohara shows a fastball that touches 94 mph and a slider that's average and flashes plus. His fastball touched 99 mph at the Northwest-Pioneer League all-star game. "Just based on stuff and youth, if not performance, he deserves to (rank among the league's best prospects)," one scout said.

Top 100 Rankings

• Ranked Baseball America's #23 prospect in 2018

• July, 2018 Scouting Report
  The first half of the season was somewhat of a lost one for the big lefthander. An offseason that was marred by the passing of his father got him off to a slow start. He then sprained his ankle which cost him further time. The setbacks have meant that Gohara’s stuff is not as firm as it was last year. His feel and control aren’t as good as his stuff, so the loss of 3-4 mph is a significant concern, even if he is still throwing with a plus 93-95 mph fastball. If he can find his lost velocity, he could make an impact in the second half.
• December, 2017 Scouting Report
  TRACK RECORD: Coming into 2017, Gohara was largely seen as a high-ceiling tease. His development was slowed by disagreements with the Mariners front office over his conditioning. Traded to the Braves for righthander Shae Simmons and Mallex Smith in January 2017, Gohara seemed to embrace the Braves' lighter touch, and he advanced three minor league levels before reaching Atlanta in September. SCOUTING REPORT: Gohara's pure stuff compares favorably with anyone. In just 29 big league innings, he threw more 98-plus mph fastballs than any other lefty starter. His 95-99 mph fastball generates top-of-the- scale grades and his 82-85 mph slider is equally impressive because it looks like his fastball coming out of his hand before diving with late tilt. He shows some feel for a changeup, but it lacks late fade and he struggles to keep it on the edges of the plate. Gohara's control is fringe-average at best, but he has made significant strides and should develop average control. THE FUTURE: Gohara's speedy climb ensures he will go to spring training competing for a spot in the rotation. He has the potential to be a front-line starter.
• December, 2016 Scouting Report
  Background: The Mariners signed Gohara for $880,000 as a 16-year international free agent in 2012, but he continually frustrated the organization as his weight ballooned to 250 pounds and he showed little work ethic. He had a breakthrough and shed 30 pounds in 2016 after being ticketed for extended spring training for the fourth straight year. Scouting Report: Gohara's rededication to his fitness led to a jump in his stuff across the board. His fastball now sits 95-98 mph and gets up to 100 after he previously struggled to maintain those velocities. His slurvy slider became a mid-80s swing-and-miss pitch with increased velocity and depth. His three-quarters arm slot and improved stuff made him difficult to square up even after a promotion to low Class A Clinton. Lefties in particular had a tough time with Gohara, hitting .227/.261/.295 off him. His fastball-slider combo gives him two future plus to double-plus pitches, and his changeup progressed to fringe-average as learned to take velocity off while keeping the same arm speed. His control comes and goes, though it improved with his newfound focus on repeating his delivery and mechanics.
  
  The Future: Gohara is finally moving in the right direction to reach his No. 2 or 3 starter potential. He will begin 2017 at high Class A Modesto.