Drafted in the 1st round (26th overall) by the Milwaukee Brewers in 2009 (signed for $1,197,000).
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Indiana University produced just one first-round pick in the first 44 drafts, shortstop James DeNeff (No. 8 overall, Angels) in 1966. Forty-three years later, the Hoosiers should have their second--and it's not preseason All-America catcher Josh Phegley. After pitching mostly out of the bullpen and having only sporadic success in his first two seasons at Indiana, Arnett got stronger and tightened his slider, allowing him to equal school records for wins (12-2) and strikeouts (109 in 108 innings). He flashed a 92 mph fastball as a freshman, and now he's sitting at 92-94 mph, touching 96 and maintaining his velocity into the late innings. His mid-80s slider gives him a second strikeout pitch. He also is doing a better job of using his 6-foot-5, 225-pound frame to leverage the ball down in the strike zone. He's a workhorse who has held up well while averaging nearly eight innings per start. His athleticism helps, and it led Indiana's shorthanded basketball team to suit him up for games (but not play him) last winter. Arnett will need to improve his changeup to remain a starter in pro ball, and some scouts think he lands too hard on his front leg in his delivery. Others say his mechanics are fine, and enough teams like him that he should go in the second half of the first round.
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The Brewers had reason to be more than a bit nervous about Arnett's performance in 2010. No first-round draft pick taken out of a major college program should get tattooed in low Class A the way he did. Signed for $1.197 million the year before, Arnett pitched so poorly that he was demoted for a period to the Rookie-level Arizona League, where he continued to get roughed up. For whatever reason, Arnett didn't show the consistent 91-94 mph fastball he had in his junior year at Indiana. Instead, he sat mostly at 87-90 mph and peaked at 92. When he fell behind in the count, he threw hittable fastballs that resulted in an alarming number of home runs. He ranked fourth in the Midwest League with 14 homers allowed despite his demotion. He gave in to hitters too often when he could not consistently command his often-flat slider and offspeed pitches consistently. Though he had problems repeating his herky-jerky delivery--his slow tempo didn't help--Arnett never complained of arm problems, making the slippage of his stuff more puzzling. Understandably, his confidence took a severe hit, and Milwaukee's hopes of moving him quickly through the system were dashed. Now, they have to wonder if Arnett's big junior season at Indiana was a fluke or if he merely stopped trusting his stuff. In the meantime, a major red flag has been raised.
Needing to bolster their stock of pitching prospects, the Brewers were pleasantly surprised Arnett was available with the No. 26 overall pick in June. Just the second firstrounder ever from Indiana University, he came out of nowhere to set Hoosiers records for wins (12) and strikeouts (109) last spring. He signed for $1.197 million. After battling command problems earlier in his college career, Arnett put it all together as a junior. He threw his fastball at 91-94 mph and touched 97, and he tightened a mid-80s slider to give him a second out pitch. He got better at using his big frame to throw on a downhill plane. He showed his athleticism by suiting up for Indiana's basketball practice squad but didn't play in regular games. At times, Arnett loses his arm slot and his command. He needs to refine his below-average changeup to give him an offspeed pitch that will keep hitters off balance. His fastball dipped into the high 80s at the end of his short pro outings, though he may just have been tired after a heavy college workload. The Brewers would love to move Arnett through their system as quickly as possible, which may mean that he'll start his first full season in high Class A. They want to be careful not to get too ambitious, but they'd be thrilled if he could get to Milwaukee before the end of 2011.
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The Brewers brought Arnett along slowly after making him just the second first-round pick ever from Indiana University. He completed five innings in only one of his 14 appearances, showing inconsistent velocity and command. Arnett's arm strength is intriguing. A physical 6-foot-5, 230-pound righthander, he showed a 90-94 mph fastball with plus sink--but later in games he dipped into the high-80s. He works quickly, and his arm action is clean. Arnett's mid-80s slider, his go-to strikeout pitch in college, showed tight rotation and bite, but he couldn't locate it consistently. It's a true plus offering when it's working, but he needs to maintain his arm slot. He also needs to refine his below-average changeup and his feel for pitching.
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