James Paxton

Organization Prospect Rankings

• 
  Ranked Seattle Mariners #3 prospect in 2014
  Paxton took the long road to Seattle, the team he grew up rooting for in British Columbia. A supplemental first-round pick in 2009 by the Blue Jays, he didn't sign and didn't return to college after Jays president Paul Beeston told a Toronto newspaper he had negotiated with Paxton's agent Scott Boras, effectively ending Paxton's eligibility. He went on to play independent ball, and the Mariners drafted him in 2010, finally signing him for $942,500 in March 2011. Paxton's fastball runs anywhere from 91-98 mph, though his velocity fluctuates because the long-limbed lefty can have trouble repeating his mechanics. His hammer curveball is a plus pitch, sitting in the low 80s at its best, but Paxton also has trouble throwing it for strikes consistently. His cutter and changeup lag behind the other two pitches. Paxton tightened his delivery considerably late in 2013, which allowed him to pitch well when he was called up to the major leagues for the first time in September. Paxton will get a chance to win a spot in the big league rotation in spring training. If he throws enough strikes, he could be a mid-rotation starter. If he moves to the bullpen, he has the stuff to pitch high-leverage innings.
• 
  Ranked Seattle Mariners #4 prospect in 2013
  The Blue Jays picked Paxton, a native Canadian, 37th overall out of Kentucky in 2009 but didn't sign him. Team president Paul Beeston told a Toronto newspaper he had negotiated with Paxton's agent Scott Boras, effectively ending Paxton's NCAA eligibility. He spent a spring in the independent American Association, went in the fourth round of the 2010 draft and signed for $942,500 in March 2011. He has carved up minor league hitters, slowed only by patellar tendinitis in his right knee that sidelined him for six weeks early in the 2012 season. Paxton is an imposing presence on the mound with his strong, workhorse build and two above-average pitches. His fastball sits at 92-95 mph and gets as high as 98. He has the best curveball in the system, a 76-79 mph hammer with 12-to-6 break. He's developing better feel for a changeup that he throws with a circle grip. Paxton has a long arm action and comes right over the top, creating deception and allowing him to pitch with good downward plane. However, the length in his delivery can hamper his command. Paxton will get his first taste of Triple-A to start the 2013 season. The development of his changeup will determine if he can be a No. 2 starter. His fastball/curveball combination also could make him a closer.
• 
  Ranked Seattle Mariners #3 prospect in 2012
  The Blue Jays drafted Paxton 37th overall out of Kentucky in 2009 but couldn't sign him. Team president Paul Beeston told a Toronto newspaper he had negotiated directly with Paxton's adviser, Scott Boras, which effectively ended Paxton's college eligibility. His stuff wasn't as sharp when he pitched in the independent American Association before the 2010 draft, so he slid to the fourth round. The Mariners finally signed him last March for $942,500, which looks like a steal after he dominated and reached Double-A in his pro debut. Paxton is the rare power lefthander who combines high strikeout totals with above-average groundball rates. His fastball sits at 91-95 mph and peaks at 98. He can pitch up in the zone effectively but has just as much faith in his two-seam fastball as he does his four-seamer. He can use his plus 76-79 mph curveball to get ahead in counts or put away hitters. His changeup made a lot of progress after he switched to a circle grip in 2011, and should be at least solid in the future. Paxton's arm action gets long in the back, allowing batters to see the ball and limiting his command when he gets out of sync. His delivery was very slow when he entered pro ball, but he worked hard to cut his time to the plate from 1.6-2.0 seconds to 1.3-1.4. Paxton could return to Double-A to start the season to avoid the cold early-season weather at Triple-A Tacoma. He has a No. 2 starter ceiling and could reach Seattle at some point in 2012.

Minor League Top Prospects

• 
  Ranked Southern League #10 prospect in 2012
  Bothered by tendinitis in his right knee, Paxton battled his control until he took six weeks off starting in late May. Once healthy, he went 6-1, 2.40 while cutting his walk rate to 3.3 per nine innings after averaging 6.2 before his disabled-list trip. He dominated in two playoff starts, striking out 19 in 13 innings without surrendering an earned run. Paxton throws two-and four-seam fastball, sitting at 91-95 mph and peaking at 98. His curveball gives him a second plus pitch, and he shows some aptitude for throwing a circle changeup that he picked up last year. His stuff and command improved once his knee stopped bothering him and has was able to finish his pitches better.
• 
  Ranked Midwest League #8 prospect in 2011
  After Paxton failed to sign with the Blue Jays as the 37th overall pick in the 2009 draft, his stuff regressed when he landed in independent ball the following spring. It bounced back quickly, however, after he signed with the Mariners in February and reported to Clinton in late April. He abused MWL hitters for 10 starts before jumping two levels in July and faring even better against Double-A opponents. Paxton required just six pitches to work a perfect inning in the Futures Game, relying solely on a 93-96 mph fastball. He usually operates at 90-94 with good life on his heater, and managers rated his curveball as the best in the league. He made nice progress with his changeup in his first pro summer. Paxton's main needs are to throw more strikes and get quicker to the plate. He has a long-armed delivery that allows hitters to see the ball but also creates a difficult angle to the plate.

Top 100 Rankings

• Ranked Baseball America's #99 prospect in 2014
• Ranked Baseball America's #87 prospect in 2013
• Ranked Baseball America's #52 prospect in 2012

• December, 2012 Scouting Report
  Background: The Blue Jays picked Paxton, a native Canadian, 37th overall out of Kentucky in 2009 but didn't sign him. Team president Paul Beeston told a Toronto newspaper he had negotiated with Paxton's agent Scott Boras, effectively ending Paxton's NCAA eligibility. He spent a spring in the independent American Association, went in the fourth round of the 2010 draft and signed for $942,500 in March 2011. He has carved up minor league hitters, slowed only by patellar tendinitis in his right knee that sidelined him for six weeks early in the 2012 season. Scouting Report: Paxton is an imposing presence on the mound with his strong, workhorse build and two above-average pitches. His fastball sits at 92-95 mph and gets as high as 98. He has the best curveball in the system, a 76-79 mph hammer with 12-to-6 break. He's developing better feel for a changeup that he throws with a circle grip. Paxton has a long arm action and comes right over the top, creating deception and allowing him to pitch with good downward plane. However, the length in his delivery can hamper his command. The Future: Paxton will get his first taste of Triple-A to start the 2013 season. The development of his changeup will determine if he can be a No. 2 starter. His fastball/curveball combination also could make him a closer.
• December, 2011 Scouting Report
  Background: The Blue Jays drafted Paxton 37th overall out of Kentucky in 2009 but couldn't sign him. Team president Paul Beeston told a Toronto newspaper he negotiated directly with Paxton's adviser, Scott Boras, which effectively ended Paxton's college eligibility. His stuff wasn't as sharp when he pitched in the independent American Association before the 2010 draft, so he slid until the fourth round. The Mariners signed him last March for $942,500.Scouting Report: Paxton is the rare power lefthander who combines high strikeout totals with above-average groundball rates. His fastball sits at 91-95 mph and peaks at 98. He can pitch up in the zone effectively but has just as much faith in his two-seam fastball as he does his four-seamer. He can use his plus 76-79 mph curveball to get ahead in counts or put away hitters. His changeup made a lot of progress after he switched to a circle grip in 2011, and should be at least solid in the future. Paxton's arm action gets long in the back, allowing batters to see the ball and limiting his command when he gets out of sync.The Future: Paxton has a No. 2 starter ceiling and could reach Seattle at some point in 2012.