Jonathan Connolly Stats & Scouting Report

Top Rankings

Let the debate over his ultimate value rage. Connolly topped the minors in ERA and fell one victory short of tying for the minor league lead last year, but he did it with a plus-plus changeup and excellent command. Skeptics point to his 83-88 mph fastball and below-average curveball and wonder how he'll be able to succeed at higher levels. Those who believe in him say he can locate any of his pitches wherever he wants and has such superb feel that he could become a No. 5 starter. Connolly, whose brother Mike pitches in the Pirates system, spent 2002 pitching in his hometown (short-season Oneonta) with no hint of this success. He doesn't project to throw any harder, so a key for him will be improving his curve. In addition to his lack of velocity, there are concerns about Connolly's athleticism and whether he'll be able to control his weight. He'll have to prove himself all over again this year in high Class A.

Connolly led the minors in ERA, and not just because he pitched at Fifth Third Ballpark. His ERA was 1.35 at home versus 1.51 on the road. While he didn't scare any hitters with his stuff, he has a good enough feel for pitching that scouts and managers give him a chance as a back-of-the-rotation starter. Connolly's changeup, a 70 on the 20-80 scouting scale, isn't just his only above-average pitch--it's his only average pitch. He throws 83-88 mph, and his 6-foot build doesn't figure to generate more velocity. His curveball is just a tick better than his fastball. But his ability to locate his pitches precisely where he wants and to change speeds is outstanding.