Jake Arrieta Stats & Scouting Report

IP	1612
ERA	3.981
WHIP	1.254
BB/9	3.188
SO/9	8.001

Full name Jacob Joseph Arrieta
Born 03/06/1986 in Farmington, MO
Profile Ht.: 6'4" / Wt.: 230 / Bats: R / Throws: R
School Texas Christian
Debut 06/10/2010
Drafted in the 5th round (159th overall) by the Baltimore Orioles in 2007 (signed for $1,100,000).

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After a sensational 2006, Arrieta has cooled off this spring. He tied for the NCAA Division I lead with 14 wins at Texas Christian after transferring from Weatherford (Texas) Junior College, and encored by going 4-0, 0.27 with Team USA last summer. But instead of dominating the weak Mountain West Conference this spring, he has been inconsistent. He showed a 91-94 mph fastball with life and a hard slider a year ago, but this spring he has lost velocity and life. His fastball has been 88-91 mph and straight, and though he's 6-foot-4 and 225 pounds, his drop-and-drive delivery means his heater comes in on a flat plane. Arrieta has struggled to repeat his mechanics, which has led to command difficulties. He hasn't used his changeup much, though it should become a decent third pitch. If Arrieta can turn himself around, he could be a steal in the supplemental first round after projecting at one point as a possible top-10 pick. But he's also represented by Scott Boras, and if he's looking for more than slot money, he could slide.

Top Rankings

Organization Prospect Rankings

After leading the Carolina League in ERA and pitching in the Olympics for Team USA in 2008, Arrieta pitched his way to Triple-A in 2009 and led the organization (both major and minor leaguers) with 148 strikeouts. The Orioles signed him for a $1.1 million bonus in 2007. Arrieta is a bulldog who is willing to challenge hitters in the strike zone. His fastball sits in the 92-94 mph range, and has the action to generate swings and misses. His slider has become a solid second pitch and is plus at times, while his changeup is solid but needs the most improvement. He also occasionally throws a curve to lefthanded hitters. While Arrieta can throw strikes with all his pitches, he needs to do it more consistently and better command his pitches in the strike zone. His 56 walks last season were the most in the farm system. The Orioles worked to shorten his stride last season to give his pitches a better finish and keep them down. Arrieta's pure stuff compares with any of the Orioles' elite young pitchers, but his command puts him a notch behind them. While some scouts think that could eventually send Arrieta to the bullpen, the Orioles see him as a middle-of-the-rotation pitcher who can pile up 200 innings a year with no problems.
Though he didn't perform well as a college junior, Arrieta had shown first-round stuff during his amateur career, so the Orioles gave him $1.1 million as a fifth-round pick in the 2007 draft. He looked well worth it in his 2008 pro debut, finishing as the Carolina League's ERA leader, pitcher of the year and top pitching prospect despite dealing with an oblique injury in June and departing early to pitch for the U.S. Olympic team. He made one start in Beijing, pitching six shutout innings with seven strikeouts against China. The Orioles thought Arrieta could get his velocity back with minor mechanical adjustments, and they were right. His fastball peaked at 96-97 mph in 2008 and showed explosive late movement, and he got stronger with more work. He shows good fastball command and isn't afraid to pitch inside, and his big frame should allow him to eat innings. Arrieta could have as many as three plus pitches to go with his fastball, but they all need work. His slider has the most potential, but his changeup should also be a good pitch as he uses it more. His curveball is a slow, big breaker that he'll need to tighten up. Some observers believe Arrieta will be better than both Chris Tillman and Brian Matusz, and the Orioles will be happy if they can build their future rotation
Arrieta was a candidate for the top of the first round after a standout sophomore season at Texas Christian and a 4-0, 0.27 summer for Team USA, but a disappointing junior season and high bonus demands drove him down in the draft. The Orioles took a chance on him in the fifth round and signed him just before the deadline for $1.1 million. Arrieta's fastball has run from 91-95 mph in the past, though he lost some velocity and life during the college season. His heater was better in the Arizona Fall League, though still not at its best. He also throws a hard slider with good bite. He has an ideal pitcher's body and an aggressive approach. The Orioles took Arrieta despite his down spring because they thought his problems were mechanical. His lines to the plate got off and he was throwing across his body and not transferring his weight properly, so he lost velocity and left balls up in the zone. The player-development staff thinks those flaws can be fixed with minor adjustments, not a major overhaul. He flashed a promising changeup as a sophomore but wasn't consistent with it in 2007. Even though he wasn't stretched out, Arrieta impressed scouts in the AFL, going right after hitters and performing well. The Orioles expect even better things once he fixes his mechanics. He could make his pro debut in high Class A.

Minor League Top Prospects

Arrieta dominated for Norfolk, posting 10 quality starts in 11 tries and taking part in four shutouts before heading to Baltimore, where he won six games in his first exposure to the major leagues. He succeeds by going after hitters with a 92-94 mph fastball that has enough life to be a strikeout pitch, and a hard slider that grades as a plus pitch at times. He uses his 6-foot-4 frame to create good angle to the plate. Though his changeup is inconsistent, Arrieta's biggest problem is with control and command. He walks too many hitters and tends to overthrow when he loses the strike zone, causing his fastball to flatten out. He'll need to throw more strikes and do a better job of locating his pitches to avoid moving to the bullpen down the line.
Arrieta is a step behind Brian Matusz and Chris Tillman among the Orioles' high-ceiling pitchers, and he pulled ahead of Bowie teammate Brandon Erbe with a promotion to Triple-A Norfolk in the second half. Some scouts believe both Arrieta and Erbe will end up in the bullpen, though others believe Arrieta's fastball should be good enough for him to start. The Orioles worked to shorten Arrieta's stride to give his pitches a better finish and keep him from leaving his fastball up in the zone too often. He responded well and was able to get swings and misses with his fastball, which sat at 93 mph much of the season. His slider gives him a second plus pitch at times, though it's inconsistent, and his changeup has its moments. While he has big stuff, Arrieta lacks the command to be a front-of-the-rotation starter and profiles more as an innings eater in the No. 3 or 4 slot.
Arrieta picked up where he left off last year, when he led the high Class A Carolina League with a 2.87 ERA in his pro debut. He cruised through Double-A, recording a pair of shutouts and posting a 2.59 ERA before earning an early-June promotion to Norfolk. Though he had a few hiccups with the Tides, he continued to show his potential as a middle-of-the-rotation starter. Arrieta works off a 92-94 mph fastball and mixes in a slider that proves most effective against righthanders and a curve that he focuses on lefthanders. He tends to rely on his fastball the first time through a lineup and then pitch primarily with his breaking pitches the second time through, which sometimes led to trouble when he struggled with his control. The Orioles would like to see Arrieta develop his changeup and become less predictable.
Embracing a few adjustments the Orioles made to his delivery in the Arizona Fall League last offseason, Arietta responded by emerging as CL's pitcher of the year and ERA leader (2.87). His above-average command of a fastball that reaches 95-96 mph sets up his four-pitch arsenal. He can locate the fastball to both sides of the plate and throws it with confidence, as he did when he struck out a rehabbing Josh Fields on three straight mid-90s fastballs. Arrieta needs to refine his secondary pitches by using them more often, though one scout suggested he could have three plus offerings and become a No. 2 starter in the big leagues. He can keep hitters off-balance with a big-breaking curveball, and he also throws a changeup that has its moments.