Jonathan Papelbon Stats & Scouting Report

IP	725
ERA	2.446
WHIP	1.044
BB/9	2.297
SO/9	10.03

Full name Jonathan Robert Papelbon
Born 11/23/1980 in Baton Rouge, LA
Profile Ht.: 6'5" / Wt.: 230 / Bats: R / Throws: R
School Mississippi State
Debut 07/31/2005
Drafted in the 4th round (114th overall) by the Boston Red Sox in 2003 (signed for $264,500).

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A redshirt junior, Papelbon turned down the Athletics as a 40th-round pick a year ago and would have gone much higher had he been considered signable. The Southeastern Conference's most overpowering reliever, he figures to be a third- to fifth-rounder this time around. More of a thrower in 2002, he has blossomed into a pitcher. He's capable of reaching 93-94 mph with his fastball but now has the command and savvy to succeed even if he's working in the high 80s. He has a quick arm action that generates a tough downward angle and movement on his pitches, which also include a hard, tight slider. Though he never has started a game for Mississippi State, that's expected to be his role as a pro. His stuff and durable build (6-foot-3, 232 pounds) are too good not to give him a shot in the rotation.

Top Rankings

Organization Prospect Rankings

The Red Sox wouldn't have made the playoffs last year without Papelbon. Boston won all three of his starts after his July promotion, and in September, he became its primary set-up man. Papelbon's best pitch is a 92-93 mph fastball that sits at 95 when he works in relief, and his heater's late life makes it seem quicker. He can locate it to both sides of the plate and blow it by hitters upstairs. Papelbon honed his fosh changeup into a nasty splitter. His slider rates as a 55 on the 20-80 scouting scale at times. He showed no fear as a rookie thrust into a pennant race. Papelbon rarely had three pitches working for him at the same time in the majors. His splitter and slider still can be refined. He throws a curveball as a starter, but it's a distant fourth pitch. The Red Sox have greater need for relievers than starters, so Papelbon should open 2006 in the bullpen. In the long term, he should front Boston's rotation along with Josh Beckett and Jon Lester.
Papelbon worked exclusively in relief during three years at Mississippi State, but the Red Sox drafted him with the idea of making him a starter. After keeping him on tight pitch counts in his pro debut, they turned him loose in 2004. He responded by finishing second in the Florida State League in ERA and strikeouts. Papelbon's fastball, which sits in the 92-94 mph range and touches 98, isn't the hardest in the system, but it's the best in terms of the combination of velocity, movement and command. He relied almost solely on his fastball early in the year, but learned to trust his slider and changeup as the year went on. All three are plus pitches at times, and he also has a curveball he can throw for strikes. He has a durable frame and did a great job with his offseason conditioning. Papelbon's slider and changeup need more consistency. The better they become, the better he'll do against lefthanders. When it's on, he can bury his slider down and in on them. Ticketed for Double-A in 2005, Papelbon has the stuff to become a frontline starter. At worst, he should be an innings-eater.
Though Papelbon never started a game in three years at Mississippi State, the Red Sox believe he can pitch in the rotation. He split time between starting and relieving in his pro debut, being kept on tight pitch counts and having more success than his numbers would indicate. Papelbon has the strong, durable frame and stuff to make the conversion work. His fastball usually sits at 92-93 mph and ranges from 89-96. His slider fluctuates from 45-60 on the 20-80 scouting scale. The changeup is a relatively new pitch for him, but his feel for it is promising. Papelbon was more of a thrower in 2002, when the Athletics drafted him in the 40th round as a sophomore-eligible, but is becoming a more savvy pitcher. With his size and quick arm, he pitches on a nice downward angle and gets good life on his pitches. He has good control but must improve his pitch selection with runners on base. He'll work out of the rotation in low Class A this year.

Minor League Top Prospects

With the Red Sox' pitching staff riddled by injuries, Papelbon helped keep them in contention by serving a variety of roles. His first three big league appearances were starts, and though he didn't earn a victory Boston won all of them. Then he moved to the bullpen, where he emerged as the top setup man in front of closer Mike Timlin. Papelbon pitches from a three-quarters arm slot that enables him to get good life on all his pitches. He works predominantly off an explosive mid-90s fastball that he spots to both sides of the plate and an 84-87 mph splitter that hitters have trouble distinguishing from his fastball. He also has crafted a slider that has cutting action and a curveball that's his fourth pitch and rates as average at best. His ability to locate his stuff and dogged demeanor are his ticket to remaining a starter. If he maximizes those qualities, he could pitch in the middle of a rotation for a contender. At worst, he figures to enjoy a successful big league career as a reliever. "This guy's mound presence, poise, makeup, demeanor is light years beyond his age," Portland manager Todd Claus said. "To go into a market like Boston and perform the way he has is indicative of his future."
Though he never started a game in three years at Missisippi State, Papelbon has made the transition to the rotation look easy. In his first full pro season, he finished second in the FSL in ERA (2.64) and strikeouts (153 in 130 innings). He got stronger as the season went along, going 6-2, 1.25 while never allowing more than two earned runs in a start over the final two months of the season. Papelbon's calling card is still a 92-94 mph fastball that reaches 96. Because of his free and easy motion, it sometimes looks like he's throwing even harder. He also has solid command and a durable frame. His biggest improvement this season was the development of his slider, which became an out pitch. Papelbon buries it down and in against lefthanders. His changeup is less advanced, but has potential to be an average pitch.