Drafted in the 1st round (21st overall) by the Kansas City Royals in 2015 (signed for $2,190,200).
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In a draft where many of the top young arms have struggled to stay healthy, Russell has consistently been the same high-octane arm that impressed scouts last summer on the showcase circuit. Russell is blessed with a very quick arm that has consistently sat at 92-94 mph and has touched 97 at his best. That fastball seems to explode from his hand and he gets good extension. But even more than the velocity, the late boring action of Russell's fastball makes it a plus pitch and one that should generate lots of ground balls. His low three-quarters arm slot also helps the action of his above-average low 80s slider. Russell's arm action isn't clean as some of the other top high school arms as his delivery has plenty of length in the back and he's struggled to hit his spots at times. Last summer his release point wandered as well. His changeup is still largely in its nascent stages because he hasn't really needed it much yet. Russell has plenty of size (6-foot-4) and he has room to grow as his lanky frame has room to add plenty of weight. Russell has a long ways to go, but he has all the pieces to be a solid mid-rotation starter and possibly more. He's committed to Texas A&M.
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Organization Prospect Rankings
Much like oft-injured 2012 top pick Kyle Zimmer, Russell is a Royals first-round pitcher whose value fluctuates wildly from year to year. The first prep righthander off the board in 2015, Russell threw just two innings in two outings in 2016 as his mechanics completely broke down and he lost the ability to throw strikes. Things got so bad the Royals were not comfortable putting him back on the mound in instructional league. Kansas City expected Russell to head to low Class A Lexington at some point in 2016, but she showed up to spring training bigger and wider in the shoulders with a resulting loss of flexibility and looseness. His velocity backed up to the high 80s, his control wavered and he lacked the fluidity and consistency of his delivery. Even as he reworked his training program, he never rediscovered his delivery or arm speed during side work. Prior to his lost year, Russell had shown a plus 92-94 mph fastball and a hard slider that flashed plus, though his high-energy delivery, timing issues and stabbing arm action led a number of evaluators to project him to the bullpen. Now he's a wild card who will be starting over in 2017.
Russell was long considered one of the best arms in the 2015 high school draft class thanks to an excellent fastball/slider combination. His extremely quick arm and the excellent boring action of his fastball impressed scouts. They also knew that the team drafting Russell would have to live with a flawed delivery. Russell has a darting 92-94 mph fastball that will touch 97 and his slider already flashes plus. But with an uptempo delivery with length in the back and a significant stab, Russell's control and quality of stuff will vary. When he separates his hands too late his upper body will struggle to catch his lower half. When that happens he loses his direction to the plate, his breaking balls become flat and his fastball misses up in the zone. The Royals asked Russell to work on a curveball and use his slider less. The curve is a little sweepy now, which is partly due to his lower arm slot. His changeup is barely even a pitch right now because the Royals want him to focus on his delivery rather than mastering a fourth pitch. Russell has front-line stuff but his timing issues made him hittable in his pro debut. Russell might not be ready for to start in low Class A Lexington, although his spring training will determine his assignment. High BILL MITCHELL
Draft Prospects
In a draft where many of the top young arms have struggled to stay healthy, Russell has consistently been the same high-octane arm that impressed scouts last summer on the showcase circuit. Russell is blessed with a very quick arm that has consistently sat at 92-94 mph and has touched 97 at his best. That fastball seems to explode from his hand and he gets good extension. But even more than the velocity, the late boring action of Russell's fastball makes it a plus pitch and one that should generate lots of ground balls. His low three-quarters arm slot also helps the action of his above-average low 80s slider. Russell's arm action isn't clean as some of the other top high school arms as his delivery has plenty of length in the back and he's struggled to hit his spots at times. Last summer his release point wandered as well. His changeup is still largely in its nascent stages because he hasn't really needed it much yet. Russell has plenty of size (6-foot-4) and he has room to grow as his lanky frame has room to add plenty of weight. Russell has a long ways to go, but he has all the pieces to be a solid mid-rotation starter and possibly more. He's committed to Texas A&M.
Minor League Top Prospects
Russell, who signed for $2,190,200 as the 21st overall pick in the draft, has a wiry frame with plenty of room to fill in his shoulders. Right now he pitches with plus fastball velocity--up to 96 mph at times--and in his final start for Burlington, he sat 91-92 in his fifth and final inning. Russell flashed the ability to command both sides of the plate with his fastball, and he showed excellent feel for his tight, low-80s slider. When he gets behind his slider, the pitch shows sharp, late break down in the zone. It has the potential to develop into a plus pitch. Scouts expressed concern about Russell's ability to project as a starter. He threw his changeup sparingly at Burlington, and the pitch's development will be key to his ability to compete against lefthanders, who hit .288 and slugged .667 against him this summer. Furthermore, Russell's arm action begins with a deep wrap and plunge, and a stabbing motion in his shoulder. He could struggle to repeat his release point with this long arm action, which will cost him control and command.
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