Aaron Blair Stats & Scouting Report

IP	73
ERA	7.89
WHIP	1.726
BB/9	4.808
SO/9	6.041

Full name Aaron Daniel Blair
Born 05/26/1992 in Las Vegas, NV
Profile Ht.: 6'5" / Wt.: 220 / Bats: R / Throws: R
School Marshall
Debut 04/24/2016
Drafted in the CB-A round (36th overall) by the Arizona Diamondbacks in 2013 (signed for $1,435,000).

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Blair jumps off the page when you look at Marshall's roster, if only because he hails from Las Vegas, 2,000 miles from Huntington, W.Va. He also stands out with a 6-foot-5, 220-pound frame and a fastball that ranges from 88-95 mph with heavy life. He works with a plus changeup that has good fading action and throws a curveball and slider, both of which are inconsistent but could be average pitches. Given his three-quarters arm slot, Blair might be best suited moving forward with the slider. Scouts also love his bulldog mentality on the mound. He was 5-4, 2.36 in 11 starts for the Thundering Herd with 78 strikeouts and 26 walks in 72 innings. Opponents were hitting just .176 against him and he had surrendered only one home run. He is unlikely to get past the second round.

Top Rankings

Organization Prospect Rankings

Blair has zipped through the minors since becoming Marshall's highest drafted player as the 36th overall pick in 2013. He spent time at both Double-A Mobile and Triple-A Reno in 2015, ranking among the Top 20 Prospects in both the Southern and Pacific Coast leagues. In addition, he pitched for USA Baseball's silver-medal Pan Am Games team, starting against Cuba. The key to Blair's success is a heavy 91-95 mph fastball that features plus downward plane, allowing him to keep balls on the ground and inducing weak contact. He gets swings and misses with an 11-to-5 curveball that he throws in the 72-76 mph range. The pitch has improved from below-average to flash plus at times. His best secondary offering is a plus changeup in the 81-84 mph range that he uses to pitch to contact. He also introduced an occasional fringy slider in 2015 that gets slurvy at 82-84 mph. Blair is an effective strike-thrower whose big hands and clean delivery give him plus command, and he does a good job of pitching to his strengths. He's athletic for his size and repeats his delivery, projecting as a workhorse with a knack for going deep into his starts. Blair will make his big league debut sometime in 2016. His groundball pitching style should make him well-suited for hitterfriendly Chase Field.
Blair was Marshall's highest-drafted player ever after the Diamondbacks popped him 36th overall in 2013. He joined Braden Shipley in low Class A South Bend's playoff rotation at the end of his 2013 pro debut, and they were on the same three-city odyssey in 2014, starting at South Bend and finishing at Double-A Mobile. Blair tied for second in the minors with 171 strikeouts in 2014, ranking as the No. 5 prospect in the California League and No. 11 in the Southern League. Increased arm speed and an improved curveball caused Blair's stock to jump in 2014 with most evaluators now projecting him as more than just a durable, back-of-the rotation innings burner. The heavy life on his 91-95 mph fastball generates weak contact from opposing hitters, and he's touched 97. He ditched his slider and instead improved the power and shape on the high-70s curveball to give him a potential plus pitch that gets swings and misses. He gets on the side of it at times, but it has better power and 11-to-5 shape. Blair has a good feel for an above-average changeup. He has good control, and some scouts project solid-average command thanks to his clean, repeatable delivery and big hands. Blair could begin 2015 at Triple-A Reno and has a good shot at getting a call to the big leagues. He has a No. 3 starter ceiling, though his flyball tendencies may not be best-suited for Chase Field.
Blair made an unlikely trip from his Las Vegas home all the way to West Virginia for his college career, after which he became Marshall's highest-drafted player ever--41st overall--and signed for $1.435 million. He finished his pro debut with 18 strikeouts in 16 innings in the low Class A Midwest League playoffs. Blair fits the profile of a mid-rotation starter thanks to his ability to pitch off his fastball, which gets up to 95 mph with late life, run and sink. He's a big-bodied innings eater with a plus changeup, and he knows how to pitch and makes adjustments on the mound. His delivery gives his pitches good life and allows him to induce weak contact. Blair's curveball and slider lag behind his other pitches, but both have average potential. His secondary pitches come out of the same plane as his fastball, and he repeats his high three-quarters delivery. Blair and first-rounder Braden Shipley are linked as the organization's top two picks from the 2013 draft, and they moved together after signing, piggybacking their outings in instructional league. Blair will try to keep pace in 2014, either back in the MWL or at high Class A Visalia.

Draft Prospects

Blair jumps off the page when you look at Marshall's roster, if only because he hails from Las Vegas, 2,000 miles from Huntington, W.Va. He also stands out with a 6-foot-5, 220-pound frame and a fastball that ranges from 88-95 mph with heavy life. He works with a plus changeup that has good fading action and throws a curveball and slider, both of which are inconsistent but could be average pitches. Given his three-quarters arm slot, Blair might be best suited moving forward with the slider. Scouts also love his bulldog mentality on the mound. He was 5-4, 2.36 in 11 starts for the Thundering Herd with 78 strikeouts and 26 walks in 72 innings. Opponents were hitting just .176 against him and he had surrendered only one home run. He is unlikely to get past the second round.

Minor League Top Prospects

Blair might not have had the best raw stuff in the SL, but he commanded the ball and pitched to his strengths as well as anyone in the circuit, earning the 2013 sandwich pick a mid-June promotion to Triple-A Reno. Blair threw a heavier fastball in 2015, sitting in the low 90s with plus down plane, and he pitched in the lower half of the zone enough to generate an above-average groundball rate. His changeup consistently grades as a plus offering, which helps keep lefthanders from roughing him up, and the power and shape on his high-70s, borderline-average curveball gives him a solid third weapon. Blair's maxed-out, 6-foot-5 frame leaves little room for physical gains, but he's plenty athletic at his current stature and projects as a safe No. 4 starter, or possible No. 3 if his command plays up to plus.
Blair has raced to the upper levels of the minor leagues, reaching Triple-A almost exactly two years after the Diamondbacks made him the highest player ever drafted from Marshall. He spent most of July away from Reno, pitching instead for USA Baseball's Pan Am Games team. He helped Team USA win a silver medal, before returning to the Aces rotation for the duration of the season. Blair does a good job of pitching off his fastball, which sits in the low 90s with sinking action. His changeup is his best secondary pitch and his curveball gives him a third quality offering. He commands his whole arsenal well and isn't afraid to come right after hitters. While Blair ranked second in the minor leagues with 171 strikeouts in 2014, he saw his strikeout rate plunge by one-third this year. Still, he has the look of a durable, innings-eating starter and should soon be ready to help the Diamondbacks.
The Diamondbacks used the 15th and 36th overall picks in the 2013 draft to select college righthanders Braden Shipley and Blair, and the duo moved virtually in tandem from low Class A South Bend to high Class A Visalia to Mobile this season. Blair provided more volume (154 total innings) and pitched more effectively (his 171 strikeouts ranked second in the minors) than the first-rounder Shipley, who did not qualify for this ranking. The burly, 6-foot-5 Blair entered pro ball with a reputation for having a plus, running fastball at 92-94 mph and a strong changeup, but he added a new wrinkle in 2014. He improved the power and shape on his high-70s curveball to the point where it flashes plus and has become the weapon Blair needs to profile as a mid-rotation horse or potential No. 2 starter if he can fine-tune his control
Blair beat Diamondbacks running mate Braden Shipley to Visalia in early May and then to Double-A in mid-July. Like Shipley, Blair also posted the most strikeouts of any Cal League pitcher during the time he was in the league, and he went on to finish tied for second in the minors with 171 total. Blair's body type and stuff garner comparisons with Matt Garza. He's got a big, durable frame and throws downhill with lively fastballs in the low 90s. He showed he could maintain his velocity and reached the mid-90s early in starts. Noted for a plus changeup in the past, Blair relied more on his curveball in the Cal League. The pitch started coming around during instructional league and it's a hard-breaking, swing-and-miss pitch. A quick worker, Blair throws with a clean, repeatable delivery, so scouts feel good about his command being fine in the future, despite some occasional wildness now (10 hit batters, 7 wild pitches).
Among league pitchers, Blair stood out as a potential innings-eater who has a solid mound presence. He has a heavy fastball that settles in the low 90s, and his secondary pitches come out of the same plane as his fastball. His No. 2 pitch is a changeup, while his slider has the best pro potential given his three-quarters arm slot. ?He?s a really good athlete, and he controls the running game,? Hillsboro?s Vicente said. ?He has good fastball command and a good breaking ball.? Blair signed for $1.435 million as the second Diamondbacks? pick this year, following Shipley. Like Peterson and Renfroe, Blair finished the year in the Midwest League, pitching deep into the playoffs with South Bend.