Austin Kubitza
| IP | 391 |
|---|---|
| ERA | 4.419 |
| WHIP | 1.509 |
| BB/9 | 3.867 |
| SO/9 | 7.435 |
- Full name Austin Michael Kubitza
- Born 11/16/1991 in Arlington, TX
- Profile Ht.: 6'5" / Wt.: 225 / Bats: R / Throws: R
- School Rice
-
Drafted in the 4th round (126th overall) by the Detroit Tigers in 2013 (signed for $401,200).
View Draft Report
A seventh-round pick by the Pirates out of a Texas high school in 2010, Kubitza had instant success as a Rice freshman and looked like a good bet to be a first-rounder in 2013. He has continued to perform well, ranking second in NCAA Division I in strikeouts per nine innings (12.0) and sixth in strikeouts (103) with a week remaining in the regular season, yet scouts aren't sure what to make of him. His 83-87 mph slider is a big league pitch, but he throws it so much that it has taken a toll on his fastball. Kubitza had a 90-94 mph heater as a freshman, but his velocity has dipped to mostly 87-89 these days. The 6-foot-5, 202-pounder does get good sink on his fastball, though his command of the pitch has regressed. He doesn't have much of a changeup and scouts worry that his crossfire delivery puts stress on his shoulder, so some project him as a sinker/slider reliever. A team that believes Kubitza can regain his velocity could pop him as early as the third round. His brother Kyle, a third baseman, was the Braves' third-round pick in 2011 and has advanced to high Class A.
Top Rankings
Organization Prospect Rankings
-
Kubitza had an outstanding season in his first full year with the Tigers in the low Class A Midwest League in 2014, so the Tigers got aggressive, skipping him a level to Double-A Erie in 2015. Things didn't go as well there for Kubitza, who saw his strikeout rate get sliced from 9.6 per nine innings to 6.4 per nine, while his ERA more than doubled to 5.79. What Kubitza still does as well any pitcher in the minors is get groundballs. His sinker is just 87-92 mph, but his fastball zips around like a fly, moving around every which way. Between the sink and often late cutting action, hitters frequently drill the pitch straight into the ground. The trouble is that he doesn't have a reliable out pitch to use off his fastball. His changeup improved and can be an average pitch when he maintains his arm speed, but in Double-A hitters didn't chase his below-average slider as much as they did in the Midwest League. Kubitza throws across his body, and while it can be difficult to command a fastball that moves as much as his does, he is usually around the strike zone. Kubitza's repertoire might not be deep enough to start, but he should get a small velo boost if he moves to the bullpen, where he could fit as a middle reliever who can be useful to get groundballs. -
A three-year starter at Rice, Kubitza ranked seventh in NCAA Division I with 11.0 strikeouts per nine innings his junior year in 2013, when the Tigers drafted him in the fourth round and signed him for $401,200. In his first full season, he ranked second in the low Class A Midwest League in ERA (2.34) and strikeouts (140) at West Michigan. Kubitza's fastball sits 87-90 mph and touches 92 but the ridiculous movement on the pitch stands out far more than its velocity. It dances all over the place with wicked sink and cutting action that makes it a nightmare for hitters to square up. The pitch makes him the most prolific groundball machine in the minors, with a 3.7 groundout/airout ratio that placed well ahead of Brewers lefthander Jed Bradley, who ranked No. 2 at 2.72. Kubitza also racks up plenty of strikeouts, though he doesn't have a true out pitch among his secondary weapons. He throws a slider that lower-level hitters will bite on, but scouts consider it a fringe-average offering. He has tried to work a changeup into the mix, but it's not a factor at this point. He has a crossfire delivery but is a solid strike thrower. Kubitza's unique skill set makes him tricky for scouts to project, with some believing he would fit best in the bullpen, though others believe his approach will continue to work as a starter at the higher levels because he gives hitters such an uncomfortable look. He should move on to high Class A Lakeland in 2015.
Draft Prospects
-
A seventh-round pick by the Pirates out of a Texas high school in 2010, Kubitza had instant success as a Rice freshman and looked like a good bet to be a first-rounder in 2013. He has continued to perform well, ranking second in NCAA Division I in strikeouts per nine innings (12.0) and sixth in strikeouts (103) with a week remaining in the regular season, yet scouts aren't sure what to make of him. His 83-87 mph slider is a big league pitch, but he throws it so much that it has taken a toll on his fastball. Kubitza had a 90-94 mph heater as a freshman, but his velocity has dipped to mostly 87-89 these days. The 6-foot-5, 202-pounder does get good sink on his fastball, though his command of the pitch has regressed. He doesn't have much of a changeup and scouts worry that his crossfire delivery puts stress on his shoulder, so some project him as a sinker/slider reliever. A team that believes Kubitza can regain his velocity could pop him as early as the third round. His brother Kyle, a third baseman, was the Braves' third-round pick in 2011 and has advanced to high Class A.
Minor League Top Prospects
-
Evaluating Kubitza proved to be one of the tougher assignments for pro scouts in 2014. They like to compare pitchers to those they saw in the past, but Kubitza is so unique that he defies comparisons. He throws his sinking fastball 75 percent of the time or more, mixing in the occasional cutter and very infrequently a fringy slider. With no one on, he sits at 87-90 mph, but in a jam he can reach back for 92 whenever he needs it. So what makes Kubitza special? He appears to replace the cork-and-rubber core of a baseball with depleted uranium. Almost no batter lifts the ball against him, and just 22 of the 539 batters he faced in 2014 tagged him for an extra-base hit. Not only did he lead all qualified minor league starters with a 3.72 groundout/airout ratio, but he dwarfed No. 2 man on the list, Brewers lefthander Jed Bradley at 2.72. Can Kubitza's approach work at higher levels? A number of scouts think it can.
