Javy Guerra

Organization Prospect Rankings

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  Ranked Los Angeles Dodgers #26 prospect in 2011
  Because of injuries, the Dodgers have had to be patient with Guerra, whom they gave $275,000 in 2004, but his power arm could be worth waiting for. He had Tommy John surgery in 2005 and was bothered by shoulder inflammation and hamstring problems in 2010, but he was effective when healthy. His fastball touches as high as 98 mph and sits at 93-95. He throws it on a nice downhill plane despite his lack of size, but it takes some effort in his over-the-top delivery. He also used to hop off the mound on his back leg, making it hard for him to keep the ball down, but he has smoothed that out. His main secondary weapon is a hard slider at 86-88 mph with average movement. Guerra developed his changeup over the last few years and it has late sink. He can also mix in a solid-average curveball. Guerra will need better command if he's going to succeed against major league hitters, and the effort in his delivery makes that more of a challenge. He can be a major league set-up man if the command is there. Guerra should advance at least to Triple-A in 2011 and can put himself in position to join the big league bullpen during the season.
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  Ranked Los Angeles Dodgers #16 prospect in 2010
  The Dodgers steered Guerra away from an Arizona scholarship with a $275,000 bonus in 2004 and have patiently waited for him to blossom. After he spent the previous two seasons in high Class A, Guerra was demoted to Great Lakes to begin 2009. He reacted positively, getting selected to play in the Midwest League all-star game before earning a two-level promotion to Double-A and eventually a spot on the 40-man roster in November. Guerra's power arm always has made him intriguing, but his development has been slow since he had Tommy John surgery in 2005. He throws his fastball at 94-96 mph range and also has a sharp slider. He'll throw an occasional changeup, but it's mainly for show as he doesn't need a consistent third pitch as a reliever. His control was better last year than it had been at any time since his elbow reconstruction, but he still averaged 4.0 walks per nine innings. He'll have to do a better job of throwing strikes and locating his pitches to keep advancing. Guerra, who kept a blog for MLB.com during the 2009 season, will return to Chattanooga to open this year.
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  Ranked Los Angeles Dodgers #25 prospect in 2009
  During a second straight season in high Class A, Guerra made progress in 2008. Still rounding into form after 2005 Tommy John surgery, he moved to the bullpen, better suited for his aggressive power arsenal, and made a solid impression in Hawaii Winter Baseball, where he had one of the league's harder fastballs. A bit undersized, Guerra has a quick arm that produces a hard but straight fastball at 89-93 mph, occasionally hitting 96. His command was off last year as he had a delivery flaw with his lead leg, and his mechanics have been a work in progress since removing crow hop he had in his motion as an amateur. He has a slider, a changeup and a curveball that can be above-average at times, but he needs to improve his control of all his pitches, his feel for pitching and his maturity. At times in the past he hasn't taken the game as seriously as he needs to. Guerra passed through the Rule 5 draft unscathed and should head to Double-A in 2009.
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  Ranked Los Angeles Dodgers #20 prospect in 2008
  Los Angeles slowly has amassed a nice stock of power arms from Texas, and while Guerra doesn't have the ceiling of Clayton Kershaw or Chris Withrow, his raw stuff at times is every bit as awe-inspiring. He had Tommy John surgery in 2005, and like so many others who had the operation, his velocity has returned but his command has not. He took the ball every fifth day in high Class A last season and consistently pumped 89-95 mph heat, touching 97 on occasion. Guerra generates his velocity and breaking ball with a lightningquick arm. His 74-78 mph curve has hard, sharp downer action. He'll mix in a slider and changeup that presently grade as below-average. His delivery has been reconstructed from the ground up. He has ironed out the exaggerated crow hop he used as an amateur, but he still struggles to repeat his release point. His command is well below-average, and he's slow to make adjustments in his plan of attack. When he tries to throw harder, his fastball flattens out. He's a long ways from a finished product, but he could develop into a middle-of-the-rotation starter or a setup man with two plus pitches if he moves to the bullpen. He's ticketed for Double-A in 2008.
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  Ranked Los Angeles Dodgers #26 prospect in 2005
  Teams were apprehensive when scouting Guerra because of an unorthodox delivery that was similar to that of a fast-pitch softball pitcher but from a traditional three-quarters arm angle. College coaches even sent video of Guerra's motion to the NCAA to determine if it was legal by college standards before recruiting him. He committed to Arizona but instead signed with the Dodgers for a $275,000 bonus. Gulf Coast League pitching coach George Culver ironed out Guerra's mechanics, eliminating his crow hop without sacrificing velocity. He pitched at 90-92 mph, touching 95 mph with his fastball. Guerra allowed just five runs in his last seven starts. His arm works fast with a loose and easy motion and he pitches downhill, though he needs to improve his feel for pitching and control. Guerra features a curveball, slider and advanced changeup, an impressive repertoire considering he was 17 when the Dodgers drafted him. The curveball, which has tight rotation, is the better of his two breaking balls. He has a dogged demeanor on the mound and good makeup. Despite his age, the Dodgers are considering starting Guerra in low Class A this season.