Henderson Alvarez Stats & Scouting Report

IP	8
ERA	1.13
WHIP	1.25
BB/9	1.13
SO/9	1.13

Full name Henderson Javier Alvarez III
Born 04/18/1990 in Valencia, Venezuela
Profile Ht.: 6'0" / Wt.: 205 / Bats: R / Throws: R
Debut 08/10/2011

Top Rankings

Organization Prospect Rankings

After posting a 5.63 ERA in two years of Rookie ball, Alvarez had a breakthrough season in the 2009, leading the low Class A Midwest League in fewest walks (1.4) and homers (0.1) allowed per nine innings. Interestingly, his pure stuff improved last year but his performance didn't. After ranging from 86-94 mph the previous season, his fastball sat at 92-94 and touched 97 during the high Class A Florida State League all-star game in 2010. His changeup remained a plus pitch with splitter action. Yet despite possessing two plus pitches, Alvarez was more hittable and his strikeout rate declined. He may have gotten caught up in his newfound power and lost some feel for pitching. He throws too many strikes and doesn't try to get hitters to chase pitches enough when he's ahead in the count. His breaking ball lags well behind his other two pitches at this point. It's a hybrid of a curveball and a slider, though he'll show an average slider on occasion. If he can refine his breaking ball, he could become a No. 3 starter. With a good spring, Alvarez could open 2011 in Double-A.
Signed out of Venezuela as a 16-year-old, Alvarez posted a 5.63 ERA in two years in Rookie ball before breaking out at low Class A Lansing in 2009. He went 9-6, 3.47 for a last-place team, leading the Midwest League in fewest walks (1.4) and homers (0.1) allowed per nine innings. Managers rated his changeup as the MWL's best. All three of Alvarez's pitches have a chance to be average or better. His best offering is his changeup, which has splitter action. When he's at his best, his fastball sits at 89-92 mph and touches 94. He commands his fastball and changeup very well, and complements them with a three-quarters breaking ball. Alvarez needs to polish his breaking ball into a true slider or curveball. His velocity fluctuates, as there are games where he works at 86-89 mph, and adding more strength would help. He's not overpowering, so he'll have little margin for error against more advanced hitters. He has some recoil and falls off to first base in his delivery, and he tends to rush his mechanics with runners on base. The Blue Jays' want to be conservative with Alvarez because of his youth, and they shut him down last August because of his innings total. Projected as a No. 4 starter, he'll step up to high Class A in 2010.
Along with Balbino Fuenmayor and 19-year-old outfielder Johermyn Chavez, Alvarez stands at the forefront of young Venezuelan talent in Toronto's system. Signed in October 2006 at age 16, he has such a live arm that he makes the cut here despite compiling a career 5.63 ERA in his two pro seasons in Rookie ball. He has a chance for three plus pitches, headlined by his dancing 92-93 mph two-seam fastball. Alvarez's four-seamer touches 94 and features natural cutting action. His hard slurve clocks in at 85-87 mph and flashes plus potential, but it's just usable now because he doesn't command it. He also shows hitters a fading changeup that he's still ironing out. Batters just don't seem comfortable facing Alvarez, in part because he lacks reliable fastball command. His control is fine, though, as he has walked just 14 batters in 72 pro innings. Like many teenagers with plus arm strength, Alvarez tries to overthrow everything. He also needs to be mindful of staying on top of his pitches so that they don't flatten out. At times his mound composure breaks down as well. Alvarez has the raw arm strength to profile as either a starter or power reliever, though he's probably still not ready for full-season ball.

Minor League Top Prospects

After being New Hampshire's best starter in the first half and pitching in the Futures Game for the second straight season, Alvarez shot to the major leagues. He held his own in Toronto over 10 starts by doing what worked in Double-A: pitching off his two- and four-seam fastballs. He can sit in the low 90s with a sinker or work in the mid-90s with his four-seamer, which touched 100 mph this year. Alvarez' changeup, his best secondary pitch, has sink similar to his two-seamer, helping him combat lefthanders effectively and giving him a solid average No. 2 pitch. He throws two breaking balls and is inconsistent with both, getting better bite with a cutter/slider that can reach the upper 80s. If he could develop a true slider with more depth, he could be a future No. 2 starter. "He has some pitch feel," a National League scout said. "He cruised at 92-94, then was up to 94-97 to finish. He showed a sense of urgency that I liked."
With his stuff, Alvarez seemingly should rank higher on this list. His velocity improved 2-3 mph in 2010, giving him a 92-94 mph fastball that touches 98. He also had one of the best changeups in the FSL, threw strikes and fielded his position well. But scouts still have some doubts about Alvarez. "Why doesn't he miss more bats?" a scout asked. "He's got a plus fastball and a plus changeup. But there's not a whole lot of swing and miss." Opponents batted .300 against Alvarez in 2010, and he struck out only 6.2 batters per nine innings. He throws too many strikes, giving opponents hittable pitches instead of trying to get them to chase out of the zone when he's ahead in the count. His fastball and curveball lack life, and his slider is just fringy right now.

Best Tools List

Rated Best Fastball in the Eastern League in 2011
Rated Best Changeup in the Toronto Blue Jays in 2011
Rated Best Changeup in the Florida State League in 2010
Rated Best Control in the Toronto Blue Jays in 2010
Rated Best Changeup in the Toronto Blue Jays in 2010
Rated Best Changeup in the Midwest League in 2009

Career Transactions

RHP Henderson Alvarez III assigned to Guerreros de Oaxaca.
Saraperos de Saltillo released RHP Henderson Alvarez III.
Saraperos de Saltillo placed RHP Henderson Alvarez III on the 15-day injured list.
RHP Henderson Alvarez III assigned to Saraperos de Saltillo.
Leones de Yucatan activated RHP Henderson Alvarez III from the 15-day injured list.
Leones de Yucatan placed RHP Henderson Alvarez III on the 15-day injured list.