Eric Duncan Stats & Scouting Report

AB	3165
AVG	.255
OBP	.319
SLG	.414
HR	90

Full name Eric Anthony Duncan
Born 12/07/1984 in Florham Park, NJ
Profile Ht.: 6'3" / Wt.: 210 / Bats: L / Throws: R
School Seton Hall Prep
Drafted in the 1st round (27th overall) by the New York Yankees in 2003 (signed for $1,250,000).

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Duncan is the best New Jersey high school hitter to come along in years, and hit .533 with nine homers this spring. He has a mature approach to hitting and a quick, polished stroke with above-average power potential. He makes adjustments well for his age, though he's vulnerable to breaking balls. He's done an excellent job of improving his body over the last year. He added 15-20 pounds, all in the form of upper-body strength. He reminds scouts of Chipper Jones at the same stage of his development. He has passable third-base actions and an average arm, though he's destined to end up at first base or left field down the road. Duncan grew up in California before moving to New Jersey as an eighth-grader. He committed to Louisiana State, but that should be for leverage only as there's a good chance he'll go in the first round. The Yankees, among others, are attracted to his lefthanded power.

Top Rankings

Organization Prospect Rankings

The Yankees have pushed Duncan aggressively ever since he responded positively in 2004 to a midseason promotion to high Class A. They thought Duncan had the right mix of power, patience and contact ability from the left side to be an ideal hitter for Yankee Stadium. However, the two years since he ranked No. 1 on this list haven't been good to Duncan. He struggled for most of 2005 at Double-A, yet he was promoted to Triple-A out of spring training in 2006 before he was ready. Back problems didn't help matters. Duncan gathered himself after a demotion to Double-A in June, but when the back injury--originally considered a lower-back strain, later diagnosed as a disc problem--cropped up again, he faltered and eventually ended his season in mid-August. He returned to play in the Arizona Fall League, though his performance was more modest. Duncan has the bat speed to turn on good fastballs, crushes balls on the inner half and isn't afraid to take a walk. His raw power ranks among the best in the system. However, back injuries tend to linger, and Duncan will have to work hard to remain in the lineup consistently. While he played some third base in 2006, he lacks the arm strength and agility to be effective there. He saw more action and is better suited for first base, where he has become adequate in a short time and should improve with experience. A healthy Duncan should be ready for a second stint at Triple-A in 2007, but it's becoming harder to see him as an eventual regular for the Yankees.
One of the youngest players in the Double-A Eastern League last year, Duncan survived a poor start and trade rumors. Then he got beaned in the head by a pitch by Akron's Victor Kleine on Aug. 14 and wasn't right the rest of the season. He bounced back to win the Arizona Fall League's MVP award. Duncan has above-average lefthanded power with enough bat speed to turn on quality fastballs, and he has easy opposite-field power as well. A solid athlete, he also has excellent makeup. He's coachable and willing to make adjustments. Once EL pitchers realized Duncan had trouble with quality breaking balls, they fed him a steady diet of them and rarely gave him fastballs in the strike zone. He needs to trust his hands more on offspeed pitches. He led the EL with 27 errors at third base, mostly due to a fringy arm. With Alex Rodriguez in front of him at third base, Duncan should move to first base sooner than later and began the process in the AFL. The position switch and his modest 2005 season likely will prompt his return to Trenton in 2006.
When his family moved from California to New Jersey when he was in fifth grade, Duncan was on his way to becoming a Yankees fan. Duncan, whose father Hal idolized Mickey Mantle, grew up admiring the stars of the recent New York dynasty such as Derek Jeter and Paul O'Neill, his favorite player. Less than a year after being drafted 27th overall in 2003, he found himself working out next to Jeter at the club's indoor facility in New York. Duncan had committed to Louisiana State, where the coaches considered him the nation's top prep hitter likely to go to college. Once the Yankees selected him in the first round though, it was clear he wasn't going to school. Duncan improved his draft stock by hitting six balls out of the Great American Ball Park during a predraft workout for the Reds, who strongly considered him at No. 14. An advanced hitter for his age, Duncan has significant power. He doesn't have a perfect swing or one that's exceptionally short, but it's a simple stroke that he repeats easily, and he generates good bat speed. His lefthanded pull power should make him an ideal fit for Yankee Stadium, and he's not afraid to go the other way. He overpowers pitches left over the plate. Duncan impressed the Yankees by showing up to spring training in excellent shape, adding muscle and quickness during the offseason. Low Class A Battle Creek manager Bill Mosiello likened Duncan's work ethic and approach to that of a lefthanded slugger he coached at the University of Tennessee: Todd Helton. Duncan thrived after a promotion to high Class A Tampa, improving both his plate discipline and his defensive consistency at third base. Duncan's arm is average at best because he short-arms the ball and doesn't always follow through properly, a correctable flaw. His agility and first-step quickness also are a little below hot-corner standards. With repetition and experience, the Yankees say he'll be an average defender at third. He tends to get a little pull-happy as many young sluggers do, and he slumped late in his stint at Battle Creek when pitchers exploited that weakness. New York correctly deduced that Duncan was getting stale facing Midwest League pitching and playing for a mediocre team and challenged him with a promotion. He responded by making more consistent contact against tougher competition. Duncan was pushed aggressively in part because the Yankees needed to showcase their most talented minor leaguer as trade bait. Alex Rodriguez is entrenched as New York's third baseman and is signed for six more seasons. If the Yankees could somehow unload Jason Giambi, Duncan could give them a powerful, cheap option at first base. He probably needs two more years of minor league at-bats before that could happen. In the interim, he remains New York's most valuable bargaining chip.
Duncan emerged as an early-round target for the Yankees at the 2002 Area Code Games, and he followed up with a strong spring. He collected three hits to earn the MVP award in a high school all-America game played near his New Jersey home before signing for $1.25 million. Managers rated him the No. 1 prospect in the Gulf Coast League. Duncan's approach reminds the Yankees of Nick Johnson, though Duncan can drive the ball to left field with more power. He has similarly solid plate discipline and a short, simple stroke. His even-keeled nature is ideal for New York and he embodies the Derek Jeter blueprint of ability, durability and character. Some teams compared Duncan's lefthanded power potential to Jim Thome's. As with Thome, Duncan's defense at third base may force him to move across the diamond to first. He can get pull-conscious, which should be corrected as he adjusts to wood bats. Duncan could move to high Class A with a good spring. He profiles as a middle-of-the-order run producer. His arrival in the Bronx could coincide with the end of Jason Giambi's contract.

Minor League Top Prospects

Duncan is easily the Yankees' best prospect in the upper minors, and they've pushed him aggressively the last two years in an attempt to enhance his value should they need him as trade bait. As with Moses, his lack of experience was evident as he struggled offensively and defensively. He was hit in the head by a pitch and missed time late in the season before going 0-for-10 in Trenton's first-round playoff loss. He remains an intriguing prospect because of his outstanding makeup and power potential. His approach is advanced, as Duncan draws walks and uses all fields. He swung and missed frequently in 2005, and good changeups ate him up. Duncan has a strong arm, but that's his only asset at third base. His hands are unsure, his throws lack accuracy and he doesn't cover much ground. It's all a moot point, however, because even if he were a Gold Glover he wouldn't push Alex Rodriguez off the hot corner with the Yankees. Duncan probably will wind up at first base.
There were times when Duncan was clearly over his head as a 19-year-old in high Class A, but he showed an ability to make adjustments. By the end of the season, he was showing good pitch recognition, working counts and rarely chasing balls out of the zone. Few FSL hitters could match his raw power, and he delivered 26 extra-base hits in 51 games. Duncan's glove lags behind his bat. His feet are a little slow for third base and an unorthodox delivery makes his arm a little short for the position.
The Yankees have a recent history of squandering first-round picks, misfiring repeatedly since taking Eric Milton in 1996. They may have reversed that trend by spending the 27th overall pick in 2003 on Duncan, who quickly has emerged as the system's top prospect. He's not quite in Dopirak's class, but Duncan has impact power. When he lets his strength come naturally he also shows admirable plate discipline, but he sometimes gets homer-happy and becomes prone to strikeouts. The Yankees challenged him with a promotion to high Class A when he tailed off in June, and he responded by showing more patience without diminishing his pop. Duncan has solid average speed and some athleticism, but he has yet to prove he can handle third base. His arm is a little short for the position. He did get steadier at the hot corner after making 11 errors in 20 April games.
Duncan had plenty of time to establish himself before he was promoted to the short-season New York-Penn League for the final two weeks. He hit .373 after moving up. "He was the best hitting prospect in this league, by far," said Yankees manager Dan Radison, a former big league coach. "He's got excellent swing mechanics and power to all fields. He just needs a little more discipline with some of the pitches he swings at." "He's very aggressive, both at the plate and in the field," Pirates manager Woody Huyke said. "He's a pure hitter. He hit lefthanded and righthanded pitching equally well." Duncan's defense isn't as advanced as his bat, but he generally fielded everything hit at him. His arm strength and range are considered below-average, which may eventually require a shift to first base. "His bat will play anywhere," Tigers manager Howard Bushong said. "He can really juice it."