Jay Bruce Stats & Scouting Report

AB	5964
AVG	.244
OBP	.314
SLG	.467
HR	319

Full name Jay Allen Bruce
Born 04/03/1987 in Beaumont, TX
Profile Ht.: 6'3" / Wt.: 230 / Bats: L / Throws: L
School West Brook
Debut 05/27/2008
Drafted in the 1st round (12th overall) by the Cincinnati Reds in 2005 (signed for $1,800,000).

View Draft Report

Coming into 2005, Bruce was regarded as a solid third-round prospect but the fifth-best member of a deep Texas high school outfield crop, behind Jordan Danks, Austin Jackson, Kyle Russell and Jarred Bogany. He since has shot past all of them and into the middle of the first round, and he could go as high as seventh overall to the Rockies. It's a rise reminiscent of Jeremy Hermida's in 2002, and Bruce has similar skills to those of the Marlins' top prospect. Scouts also compare Bruce to Larry Walker. Though he has average to plus tools across the board and enough athleticism to play center field, Bruce profiles better in right field. His swing can get a little long at times, but Bruce is a polished high school hitter. He centers the ball well and already understands the importance of using the entire field. He also has the strength and skill to eventually hit 30-plus homers annually in the majors. His average speed is probably his worst tool, but he plays quicker than his stopwatch readings on the bases and in the outfield. He has more than enough arm to handle the move to right field in pro ball. At one point, Bruce's signability was questionable because he committed to Tulane and chose Scott Boras as his adviser. Bruce since has dropped Boras in favor of Matt Sosnick and is expected to sign for slot money.

Top Rankings

Organization Prospect Rankings

Texas has been very good to the Reds. In successive years, they used first-round picks on Lone Star State products Homer Bailey, Bruce and Drew Stubbs, who occupy three of the first five spots on this list. The 12th overall pick in 2005, Bruce signed for $1.8 million and has met every expectation, while drawing comparisons to the likes of Larry Walker, Jeremy Hermida, Jim Edmonds and even Ken Griffey Jr. When he was 9, Bruce called the Seattle Kingdome and asked to speak to Griffey, but he couldn't get past the switchboard operator. Now he has a chance to play beside Griffey in Cincinnati's outfield. After ranking ahead of fellow 2005 first-round picks Cameron Maybin, Colby Rasmus and Justin Upton as the top prospect in the low Class A Midwest League in 2006, Bruce figured to split 2007 between high Class A Sarasota and Double-A Chattanooga. But when he moved up to Triple-A Louisville in July for what was supposed to be a brief injury fill-in, he homered in his first game and never looked back. He finished the season with a .319 average and 80 extra-base hits, and he would have earned a September callup had he been on the 40-man roster. He did travel to Cincinnati to receive Baseball America's Minor League Player of the Year award. Bruce combines tremendous bat speed with an excellent swing plane. He has a knack for deciphering and correcting flaws in his swing between at-bats and sometimes even between pitches. He has the natural ability to hit for average and power even if he didn't work hard, but he does have the drive of a baseball rat--he's the first person to the ballpark and the last to leave. Every one of Bruce's tools is better than average. On the 20-80 scouting scale, his bat rates as a 65, his power as a 65-70, his speed as a 55, his defense in center field as a 55 (60 if he moves to right field) and his arm as a 60. As impressive as his tools are, he also has exceptional instincts and exceptional makeup. He's a leader in the clubhouse and has the awshucks humbleness to be the public face of the franchise. Bruce has few faults. He strikes out a lot, but the whiffs are an acceptable tradeoff for his production. Some Triple-A teams busted him inside, but that doesn't appear to be a long-term problem. While he's capable of playing center field, he still projects to end up in right as he fills out. Staying in center also might hinder his ability to add the weight that will bring extra home runs in his late 20s. He has enough speed and savvy to steal 15-20 bases a season, but he wasn't aggressive on the bases in 2007. Bruce is ready for the big leagues, but there isn't a clear spot for him after the Reds picked up Adam Dunn's option. All three of their regular outfielders from 2007 return, so they could let Bruce ripen a little more in Triple-A, especially considering he doesn't have to be protected on the 40-man roster until after the 2009 season.
The low Class A Midwest League was loaded with outfielders last year--including fellow 2005 first-round picks Cameron Maybin, Colby Rasmus and Justin Upton--but it was Bruce who ranked as the circuit's No. 1 prospect. The youngest player in the MWL all-star game, he came away with the MVP award, and led the league in doubles and extra-base hits (63). Bruce quickly has established himself as the best hitting prospect in the system and one of the best in the minors. He has quick hands and a smooth swing path that allow him to keep the bat in the strike zone for quite a while. Scouts were impressed that he could turn on 95-mph fastballs with his plus bat speed, and he also knows how to go the other way if pitchers try to work the outside corner. He projects to be an above-average hitter with above-average power. In the outfield, Bruce gets good jumps to go with his slightly above-average speed. He can handle center field, though most scouts expect he'll end up as a strong-armed right fielded once he fills out. He can show more plate discipline, but the Reds will happily live with some strikeouts if Bruce continues to pound the ball. A pulled quadriceps muscle helped lead to a late-season slump. The Reds took a cautious approach with Bruce in 2006, letting him remain in low Class A all season even as he dominated. He'll likely begin this year at high Class A Sarasota, but he could start to move quickly and reach Cincinnati at some point in 2008.
Bruce went from unknown to prospect during the summer of 2004, and his surge continued last spring as he emerged as the cream of a quality crop of Texas high school outfielders. He went No. 12 to the Reds and signed for $1.8 million. He ranked as the No. 1 prospect in the Rookie-level Pioneer League in his debut. Bruce draws comparisons to Larry Walker and Jeremy Hermida for his sweet stroke, above-average arm and athleticism. He profiles as a power-hitting right fielder, but the Reds intend to keep him in center until he grows out of the position. He can turn on a fastball, but he also has shown the ability to use the entire field with good bat speed. He has plus speed and good overall instincts. Like many young players, Bruce needs to work on the finer aspects of the game, such as reading pitchers and honing his basestealing technique. He occasionally gets antsy at the plate instead of sitting back and waiting on pitches to drive. Bruce will make his full-season debut at low Class A Dayton. A five-tool talent, his bat will dictate how rapidly he advances.

Minor League Top Prospects

The 21-year-old Bruce's precocity was on full display in the minors--he seemed to hit everything hard--and he continued to showcase his skills in the majors, though he still needs to show a more disciplined approach to dealing with offspeed pitches. He can jump out of his swing at times in an effort to pull, and he struggled against big league lefthanders. Hot or cold, Bruce still is the same talent he was when he earned Minor League Player of the Year honors in 2007. He has a classic lefthanded swing, tremendous bat speed and the natural ability to hit for average and power, grading on both counts as a 65 on the 20-80 scouting scale. An average runner, he shows strong tracking ability and easy range in center field. He has an above-average arm. "You may fool him once or twice," Richmond manager Dave Brundage said. "One changeup will make him look bad, but the next one will be off the right-center field wall for a triple. He makes adjustments on the fly."
It's hard to decide which part of Bruce's game managers like more: his power/speed combination that has future all-star written all over it, or his mature approach which makes it hard to remember that he's only 20. Baseball America's 2007 Minor League Player of the Year, Bruce has a quick stroke and his knowledge of his swing makes him more effective. A natural athlete, he shows the ability to make adjustments from at-bat to at-bat or even from swing to swing. He has above-average speed and he's an aggressive baserunner, albeit not a prolific stolen-base threat. There's not much to nitpick about Bruce. He struck out 135 times in 133 games, though it's hard to argue with his production. Most scouts expect Bruce to slide to right field eventually, which leads to plenty of Larry Walker comps, but St. Lucie manager Frank Cacciatore liked his work in center. "The way he plays defense reminds you of a Jim Edmonds," Cacciatore said. "He gets great jumps and has great hands."
While Bruce didn't reach the majors like fellow 2005 first-rounders Justin Upton and Cameron Maybin, who both debuted in August, he did win Baseball America's Minor League Player of the Year award and finished atop two prospect lists. As an added bonus, his 80 extra-base hits were the second-highest total by any minor leaguer in 2007. Though he played just 50 games in the IL, it was more than enough time for Bruce to make an impression. With excellent bat speed, swing plane and vision, he projects to hit for both average and power. Though Bruce's raw power grades only as a 65 on the 20-to-80 scouting scale, he's so efficient that the tool plays up. Observers also were impressed by his willingness to go the other way and by his line-drive stroke, which should allow him to hit for average as well. Bruce spent most of his time with Louisville in center field, but his range and above-average arm will play better in right field. He does have slightly above-average speed and could steal 15-20 bases in the majors. Opposing teams had success tying him up inside and Bruce struck out 135 times in 133 games on the year, though it's hard to hold it against him considering that rate didn't rise as he moved up the ladder. "He handled pitches in the zone very well," Richmond manager Dave Brundage said. "At times he would chase pitches under the zone. But for the most part, we were trying to find where to pitch the guy, because he hurt our mistakes. He had a real veteran approach."
Bruce's ability to hit for average and power stand out the most among the stud outfielders and among his toolset. He sees pitches well with his very quiet approach, and he uses natural lift to drive them from left-center to the right-field foul pole. His stroke is very quick if a bit long at times, and he led the MWL in doubles (42) and extra-base hits (63). He drilled a tape-measure homer during a MVP performance in the league all-star game. "The thing that's most impressive with Jay is it's real easy power," Dayton manager Billy Gardner said. "His bat stays in the strike zone really well. He's also advanced with his instincts and adjustments." There are other dimensions to his game. He's a slightly above-average runner whose speed plays up on the basepaths and in the outfield. He gets outstanding jumps, allowing him to easily reach balls in center field, though he projects more as a strong-armed right fielder once he fills out.
Bruce went 12th overall in the June draft, one spot after McCutchen, and GCL managers had trouble deciding which player had a greater upside because both made a strong impression with their offensive potential. "Bruce swings the bat more like Kirk Gibson," Red Sox manager Ralph Treuel said. "McCutchen's swing reminds you a little more of Gary Sheffield. Both run well, but Bruce has the size and throws a little better." Primarily a pull hitter at the start of the season, Bruce soon learned to drive balls to all fields. He also has a good two-strike approach, though he tended to get overanxious in hitter's counts. A hard-nosed player, Bruce takes pride in his defense and is determined to remain a center fielder, though his power potential profiles better on a corner. He gets excellent reads off the bat and takes good routes to balls, but he seems to showcase his above-average arm strength only when he needs to. Though he runs well, he remains raw on the bases.
Bruce was a little-known player from east Texas prior to last summer, when he played alongside Roger Clemens' son Koby and other prospects on the Houston Heat, a prominent Houston-based summer league team. His five-tool potential couldn't be concealed, and he blossomed into the 12th overall pick in the 2005 draft. He homered in his first game with Billings and again in the playoffs, standing out as an 18-year-old in a league loaded with four-year college players. Bruce has good bat speed, a picture-perfect swing that should yield above-average power and a patient approach. He uses all fields and makes consistent hard contact. An average runner, Bruce has good instincts in the outfield as well as on the bases. He mans center field adequately, but projects to eventually move to right field, where his power potential and plus arm profile well. He has excellent makeup and aptitude.