Drafted in the 1st round (19th overall) by the Toronto Blue Jays in 1999 (signed for $845,000).
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6-foot-5, 180-pound 3B Alexis Rios has stirred late first-round interest. He projects as a power-hitting right fielder in pro ball.
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The Blue Jays had a tight signing budget in 1999, and then-scouting director Tim Wilken and his staff narrowed the team's choice in the first round to three players. Toronto could go with Ball State outfielder Larry Bigbie, Mississippi State righthander Matt Ginter or Rios, a Puerto Rican outfielder whose swing path and physical tools intrigued the organization. They also knew he'd come cheaper. Rather than spend about $1.5 million of their signing budget on one college player, the Jays decided to sign Rios for $845,000 (the only sub-$1 million bonus in the first round that year) and used the savings to sign several draft-and-follow prospects. Rios has since blossomed into a stud prospect, particulary in 2003, when he won the Eastern League batting championship and was Baseball America's Double-A player of the year. He also played in the Futures Game, hitting an opposite-field homer that showed off his best attributes.
Rios has a smooth, easy swing that belies his long frame and helps him make consistent, hard contact to all fields. He had five hitting streaks of 10 games or more in 2003. His bat always has been his best tool, and his developing power has pushed him to elite-prospect status. He hit three homers in the EL playoffs and hit .348-12-37 in 40 games to win league MVP honors during winter ball in his native Puerto Rico. Credit his emerging home run power to him filling out physically and gaining strength. Jays officials also consider him an accomplished center fielder who takes good angles to the ball and has a strong arm. Rios makes such consistent, hard contact that he's never going to walk a lot. His 85 strikeouts last year were a career high, as were his 39 walks. His offensive profile looks a lot like that of Vernon Wells, which is good, but Rios isn't as good a center fielder as Wells. He's going to have to keep hitting for the kind of power he was showing in Puerto Rico if Wells' presence prompts Rios move to right field. He has had some durability issues in the past linked to nagging injuries, and he began 2003 in extended spring training while overcoming a pulled quadriceps. His strong play in winter ball, though, has quieted those concerns.
Rios is a prime example of the way the Jays used to do business, a high-risk high school pick, a hitter who doesn't draw walks but who oozes tools. If the organization keeps him, it could have another Juan Gonzalez or Dave Winfield on its hands, a perennial all-star right fielder who could hit .300 with 35 homers, or win batting championships with 20-homer power. However, Rios isn't quite a finished product and looks likely to begin 2004 at Triple-A Syracuse unless he has an overwhelming spring.
Rios' climb from surprise first-round pick to legitimate prospect is almost complete. He overcame a broken finger, bruised thumb and jammed wrist to rank fourth in the Florida State League in batting in 2002. Rios' swing path attracted the Jays to draft him in the first place as a low-cost, compromise choice, and he has rewarded them by becoming one of the organization's best hitters. He rarely strikes out and has an extraordinarily short swing for such a tall player. Rios runs well and has improved in center field, where he has an adequate, accurate arm and good range. Rios' power has yet to evolve in regular-season games, though he hit seven homers in spring training and showed similar pop in instructional league, once his hand and wrist had healed. He doesn't draw a lot of walks and needs to learn which pitches to lay off and which he can drive. Rios was protected on the 40-man roster this offseason, an intriguing decision given GM J.P. Ricciardi's affinity for walks and on-base percentage. Rios should move to Double-A New Haven in 2003, with improved power and patience his top priorities.
The Blue Jays took criticism in 1999 for drafting Rios in the first round. He signed for a below-market $845,000 as Toronto bypassed college talents such as Larry Bigbie, Matt Ginter and Ryan Ludwick. While money had much to do with the pick, so did projection, and Rios is starting to make the Jays look good. What attracted scouts Tim Wilken and Chris Buckley to Rios was his swing, an easy, short stroke that comes naturally. He also makes consistent contact and is tough to strike out. He has an athletic body and plus speed. He has gone from scrawny to slender, and he has big hands and broad shoulders to grow into. He has the range and ballhawking abilities for center field and the arm for right. Rios still needs more experience and strength. His strike-zone judgment needs to start including some walks. Eventually, he'll grow out of center field and move to a corner. The Jays consider Rios' ceiling among the highest in the organization. He and Tyrell Godwin have the best chance among Toronto farmhands to be five-tool talents down the line. Rios will keep growing at Dunedin this year.
Rios and fellow Puerto Rican outfielder Miguel Negron stick out in the last two drafts as the only first-round picks who didn't sign for $1 million. Club vice president Tim Wilken, who drafted both players as scouting director, says the perceived drop in Puerto Rican talent the last 10 years, usually attributed to the implementation of the draft there, is about to end. He contends talent in any area is cyclical, and that Rios and Negron are the beginning of an upward spike in Puerto Rico. Rios, long and lean, has the higher ceiling, with the potential to become a power-hitting right fielder with a plus arm. He has added almost 20 pounds since being drafted and started to drive the ball with Queens. He has good bat speed and is shortening his long swing. The Blue Jays may have to be patient with Rios, but they believe he eventually will prove worthy of a first-round pick.
Minor League Top Prospects
Rios still is lanky and has yet to show more than gap power, but he still draws comparisons to a young Juan Gonzalez. The 6-foot-5, 195-pounder has a smooth, easy swing and doesn't get tied up on inside fastballs like most players his size. He makes consistent hard contact to all fields. Rios was just so-so in the IL before the Blue Jays promoted him in late May, and while he held his own he still has work to do on his plate discipline. He runs well and is a plus defender in center field, but Vernon Wells' presence in Toronto means Rios will play in right. His arm is up to the task. "That power is going to come," an NL scout said. "The easy comparison for me is to Vernon Wells, but Rios isn't as good defensively. I think this year he's just feeling his way up there and could really have a breakout year next season."
Right now, Rios is a skinny hitter with gap power. But when mangers and scouts look at the 6-foot-6, 202-pounder, they can envision Rios growing into a power-hitting right fielder. "He reminds me of when I saw Juan Gonzalez 10-12 years ago," Portland manager Ron Johnson said. "He has the same type body. Gonzalez was tall and lanky and didn't hit a lot of home runs. A few years later, he's a beast." Even with room to grow, Rios tore up the EL, hitting a league-leading .352 and winning the MVP award. He stroked line drives from gap-to-gap and had 54 extra-base hits, including 11 home runs. He's more quick than fast, but can handle center field and has the arm to move to right field when he plays alongside Vernon Wells in Toronto. "He's got very special ability," one scout said. "If he decides to hit for power and put on strength, he could hit a ton of home runs. It's amazing how well the ball travels off his bat. He could win a batting title or he could go off and hit 20 home runs in the big leagues, or maybe he does both. He has that kind of ability."
There was a time when the Blue Jays took heat for drafting Rios because of budgetary concerns. His $845,000 bonus was the only first-round deal under $1 million in 1999, but now it's starting to look like the Blue Jays were right on the money with their projection of the Puerto Rican. Rios hit three home runs this year, matching his previous career total. But scouts and managers expect plenty of power to come based on his developing frame and leverage in his swing. He didn't go deep after breaking his hand trying to upset a double play in May, but he played through pain after missing just three weeks and made hard, consistent contact into the gaps. Rios has the plus speed to handle center field, as well as above-average arm strength. He might outgrow the position and hit for enough power to play in right.
Rios was the least impressive of the league's top prospects statistically but may have the highest ceiling. He has enormous power potential as he grows into his frame. He has already gained 15 pounds since signing due to a weightlifting program and a specialized diet. Although he has the speed to continue to play center field, Rios will probably end up in right, where his above-average arm strength will be a plus. "He can either be a five-tool player or a zero-tool player depending on how his bat develops," Nixon said. "He's an impressive athlete with a big upside."
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Rated Best Batting Prospect in the Eastern League in 2003
Rated Most Exciting Player in the Eastern League in 2003
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