Chad Qualls Stats & Scouting Report

IP	807
ERA	3.892
WHIP	1.276
BB/9	2.353
SO/9	6.959

Full name Chad Michael Qualls
Born 08/17/1978 in Harbor City, CA
Profile Ht.: 6'4" / Wt.: 235 / Bats: R / Throws: R
School Nevada
Debut 07/22/2004
Drafted in the 2nd round (67th overall) by the Houston Astros in 2000 (signed for $415,000).

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A senior who went undrafted in 1999, Qualls was the talk of the West in February when he came out throwing 91-94 mph with an above-average slider. He added 15 pounds from last year, resulting in an extra 4-5 mph in velocity, and everything clicked for him. He went through a customary dead arm period in March, when his fastball slipped to 85 mph, but came back strong in April. Qualls should be the first senior drafted--possibly in the compensation or second round.

Top Rankings

Organization Prospect Rankings

If Qualls can shake off a couple of meltdowns in the playoffs--a three-run homer to Adam LaRoche to blow Game Four of the National League Division Series, and a five-run sixth inning to take the loss in Game One of the NL Championship Series--he has the stuff to become Houston's top set-up man for Brad Lidge. Summoned by the Astros late last July, he posted the best ERA among their regular relievers after Lidge and Octavio Dotel. He showed the poise Houston hoped for. Groomed exclusively as a starter in the minors until the Astros traded Dotel last June, Qualls has well-above-average command of a plus slider. Since he has signed, Houston has worked to get him to keep his arm slot up, and that lesson finally seems to be sinking in. A true three-quarters angle adds more sink to his 87-94 mph fastball and gets groundballs. To better combat lefthanders, he's been working on a splitter, but didn't use it much in the majors last year. Qualls has enough pitches to start, but he's more valuable to Houston serving as a bridge to Lidge right now.
Like Chris Burke, Qualls was promoted to Double-A before his time in 2002. While he led the Texas League with 142 strikeouts, he went 6-13, 4.36. His Round Rock encore started no better, as he went 3-8, 5.42 in the first three months. Then he finished with a 5-3, 1.93 flourish, establishing himself as the Astros' most advanced starting pitching prospect until they traded for Taylor Buchholz. Qualls' resurgence started when he realized that he's not a power pitcher. His out pitch is a slider, and he wins when he gets his 87-94 mph fastball to sink. He improved his changeup and started throwing a splitter. He's durable and mentally tough. Qualls has difficulty maintaining his mechanics. When he drops down too low, he loses his heavy sink and hitters sit on flat fastballs. His inconsistent delivery also hampers his control. He still has work to do with his changeup, the pitch that ultimately will determine whether he's a big league starter or reliever. Houston's plan is for Qualls to begin 2004 as a Triple-A starter. But he could be an attractive relief option for the Astros by midseason.
Add Qualls to the list of Astros prospects who could have used time in high Class A last year. After leading the low Class A Midwest League with 15 wins in his 2001 pro debut, Qualls lost his first six Double-A decisions. He led the Texas League in strikeouts but also finished second in losses and walks. Qualls is a sinker/slider pitcher and both are quality offerings. Righthanders have little chance when he throws his slider from a three-quarters angle. He can reach the mid-90s, but he's more affective burying his fastball low in the zone at 90-93. Once Qualls figures out command--both throwing strikes and locating his pitches within the zone--he'll be in the majors. He's not mechanically sound, though he's strong enough to fight through it. He made progress under Round Rock pitching coach Mike Maddux. Qualls can get too predictable, relying too much on his slider while eschewing his changeup, and hasn't solved lefties yet. Qualls may return to Double-A in 2003, though he won't be able to work with Maddux, who's now Milwaukee's pitching coach. His long-term role may come in relief because of his stuff and his command.
The third player drafted as a college senior to make the top 10, Qualls signed late in 2000 and didn't debut until last season. He probably would have been promoted at midseason if the Astros had a high Class A team or weren't loaded at Double-A, but he settled for tying for the Midwest League lead in victories. Qualls gets loads of ground balls with his low- 90s sinker and a slider MWL managers considered the best in their league. Pitching from a three-quarters arm angle, he's brutal on righthanders. He challenges hitters while walking the fine line between throwing strikes and making mistakes. Qualls needs to throw his changeup more, something he'll realize when he reaches the upper minors. His mechanics could be smoother, though they don't hamper his control. He sometimes drops down to a low-three-quarters slot, which flattens out his slider. Qualls will go to Double-A in 2002 and could advance very quickly. Houston has a deep stock of starters, which could mean that he settles into Enron Field in middle relief. He has the stuff, mentality and resilience to succeed in that role.
Undrafted following his 1999 junior year at Nevada, Qualls added 15 pounds of muscle in the offseason. His stuff got stronger, too, as he started throwing 91-94 mph with a plus slider, and Houston took him in the second round. His fastball has nasty sinking action, and righthanders have little chance against him when he throws it from a low three-quarters arm angle. Like Anthony Pluta, he signed late and won't make his pro debut until 2001. Qualls is much more polished than Pluta and should be the first draftee from the Astros' 2000 class to reach the majors. His mechanics are a bit of a concern, however. He's a maximum-effort guy who has trouble maintaining his arm slot. That might mean his best long-term role will be as a reliever, though he'll remain a starter for now.

Minor League Top Prospects

Beyond Nageotte and Narveson, there was little consensus as managers tried to identify the MWL's top pitching prospects. Qualls, who led the league in wins in his pro debut, ranked atop the second tier. In a midseason survey of the managers, he actually beat out Nageotte and Narveson and was named the league's best pitching prospect. He had the best slider in the league and mixed it well with a low-90s sinker that topped out at 94 mph. Qualls challenged hitters yet made few mistakes, permitting just eight homers in 162 innings. His changeup has promise but he'll need to use it more as he moves up.