Travis Blackley Stats & Scouting Report

IP	192
ERA	5.25
WHIP	1.406
BB/9	3.797
SO/9	6.188

Full name Travis Jarrod Blackley
Born 11/04/1982 in Melbourne, VIC, Australia
Profile Ht.: 6'3" / Wt.: 205 / Bats: L / Throws: L
School Cheltenham Secondary College
Debut 07/01/2004

Top Rankings

Organization Prospect Rankings

Blackley was the system's best lefty prospect when he reached Seattle in July 2004, but then things started to unravel for him. He changed his approach and tried to pitch away from contact, falling behind in counts and then getting crushed when he came back over the plate. After returning to Triple-A, he went on the disabled list with shoulder tendinitis, and during the offseason doctors found two small tears in his labrum. Blackley had shoulder surgery in February 2005 and missed that season, but he was able to make 27 starts last year. His stuff is starting to get back to where it was. Blackley's best pitch is still his changeup, and he still throws it with the same arm speed as his fastball. He worked mostly at 84-89 mph with his fastball in 2006, down from 87-92 in the past. His fastball's command and movement always trumped its velocity anyway. His 74-76 mph curveball features some bite and depth, but not on a consistent basis. The Mariners were most pleased that Blackley regained his aggressive nature and confidence and hope his stuff can get a tick better as he puts the surgery further behind him. The back of Seattle's rotation is unsettled, so Blackley could fit into that mix, though he could use some time in Triple-A first.
While the Mariners were tracking Shin-Soo Choo at the 2000 World Junior Championship, they also found Blackley pitching for Australia. His younger brother Adam pitches in the Red Sox system. Travis moved rapidly after coming to the United States, leading the minors with 17 wins as a 20-year-old in Double-A in 2003. But little has gone right for him since. Promoted to Seattle the following July, he changed his approach and tried to pitch away from contact. He lost command and velocity and ended 2004 on the Tacoma disabled list with shoulder tendintis. Doctors subsequently discovered two small tears in his labrum. He missed all of the 2005 season after February surgery but should be ready for spring training. When he was going well, Blackley drew Mark Buehrle comparisons while keeping hitters off balance with a four-pitch mix. His changeup was his best pitch, and he also used an 87-92 mph fastball with natural cutting action, a curveball and a slider. His stuff didn't give him much margin for error, so if it doesn't come all the way back, he could be in trouble.
While the Mariners were zeroing in on Shin-Soo Choo at the 2000 World Junior Championship, they also discovered Blackley. He tied for the minor league lead with 17 wins in 2003, but like Nageotte had a difficult time handling his first big league trial in 2004. His brother Adam pitches in the Red Sox system. At his best, Blackley confuses hitters by mixing four pitches and draws comparisons to Mark Buehrle. His changeup is his best pitch, the key to his consistent success against righthanders. He also uses an 87-92 mph fastball with natural cutting action, a curveball and a slider. Blackley tried to pitch away from contact in the majors, with disastrous results. He lost his command and his fastball dropped to 82-85 mph, losing separation from his changeup. He needs to find a consistent breaking ball to get lefties out. He does get good spin on his curve, and it was the one pitch he got major league hitters to miss. He'll return to Tacoma to begin 2005. The Mariners believe he'll learn from his adversity.
Blackley sustained a small fracture in his elbow in instructional league in 2001, but made a quick recovery and stood out as the youngest pitcher in the high Class A California League the following year. He was even better in 2003, pitching in the Futures Game, winning the Texas League pitcher of the year award and tying for the minor league lead in wins. His brother Adam pitches in the Red Sox system. Blackley expertly mixes four average or better pitches, including the best changeup in the system. He also throws a fastball with natural cutting action, a curveball and a slider. Double-A San Antonio pitching coach Rafael Chaves made an adjustment to Blackley's release that allow him to boost his fastball up to 88-92 mph. Blackley has good command but sometimes gets too cute and winds up issuing more walks than he should. He tends to rush his delivery against lefthanders, which takes away from his stuff. Lefties hit .301 against him last year, compared to .188 by righties. Both of his breaking balls need a little refinement. The Mariners refer to him as Jamie Moyer with better stuff. After a year in Triple-A Tacoma, Blackley will be ready to join Moyer in Seattle's rotation.
While closing in on Shin-Soo Choo at the 2000 World Junior Championship, the Mariners spotted Blackley, who lost to Korea in the semifinals as a member of the Australian team. After a promising pro debut in 2001, Blackley sustained a small fracture in his elbow while pitching in instructional league. He returned by the beginning of May, skipped a level and fared well as the California League's youngest starting pitcher. Blackley is similar to Craig Anderson, another Mariners lefthander from Australia: His best attributes are his changeup and his command, and he has a solid curveball. He has a higher ceiling because he's more projectable and throws in the high 80s, while Anderson works in the low 80s. Blackley's competitive nature has allowed him to handle every challenge thrown his way. With three pitches that should be average or better to go with an advanced feel for pitching, Blackley has no obvious shortcoming. Adding velocity would be nice, but plenty of lefties have been effective working in the high 80s. Double-A will provide Blackley's biggest test yet in 2003. At this point, he's on track to reach Seattle by 22.
While they were scouting Shin-Soo Choo at the 2000 World Junior Championships in Edmonton, the Mariners also saw Blackley. He took the loss against Choo's Korean team, the eventual champions, in the semifinals. Blackley tasted defeat just once last summer in his pro debut despite being one of the youngest pitchers in the Northwest League. He's similar to Australian countryman Craig Anderson, though he's bigger and eventually will throw harder. The bad news is that Blackley fractured his elbow while pitching in instructional league last fall. He had a pin removed from the elbow and won't take the mound until June. Before he got hurt, he had a nice three-pitch mix with a mid-80s fastball, a plus curveball and an average changeup. Like Anderson, he has an advanced feel for pitching. Blackley would have been placed on a similar fast track if he hadn't been injured.

Minor League Top Prospects

In his first foray into Double-A, Blackley continued his fast progress toward Seattle and led a San Antonio pitching staff that overmatched the league. His 17 wins tied for the most in the minors this season. At his best, Blackley has four average major league pitches: an 85-88 mph fastball, a changeup (his best pitch), a curveball and a slider. For much of the season, though, he had just the fastball and changeup working, a testament to the quality of those pitches. To succeed at higher levels and combat lefthanders, he'll have to improve his breaking pitches. Lefties hit .301 against him this season, compared to .181 for righties. He also is a bit immature and still needs to grow up. "He's dominant with all of his pitches working," Brundage said. "Him with four pitches is something to be reckoned with."
Two years ago, the Mariners brought in lefthander Craig Anderson, a soft-tossing changeup artist from Australia. At age 17, Anderson went 10-2, 3.20, but his low-80s fastball didn't impress league managers enough for him to crack the league's Top 10 Prospects list. Blackley shares many of Anderson's traits. He's Australian and a shade older than Anderson was at the time, has a good changeup and dominated NWL hitters, finishing third in the league in strikeouts. He also has a mid-80s fastball, though he has more upside than Anderson. "He should grow a bit more into his fastball," said Pollreisz, in his third year managing Everett. "He's more projectable because he's less mature physically than Craig was. He might eventually be in the high 80s, and he's got an outstanding curveball now."