Noted for his arm strength early in his career, Molina began to produce results and gain prospect helium at short-season Brooklyn in 2014. He lost momentum in 2015 and 2016 as he dealt with an elbow injury that required Tommy John surgery, but a convincing season at Double-A Binghamton in 2017, after recovering from a lat strain, restored his shine. With a workhorse physique and easy, athletic delivery, Molina throws strikes and generates above-average life on all his pitches. He sat 94 mph in the Arizona Fall League in 2016, but his velocity dipped to 91 mph with a peak of 93 in 2017 as he focused on commanding and sinking the ball. He commands his high-spin two-seamer to both sides of the plate and hides the ball well. Molina's plus low-80s slider has late three-quarters tilt and depth to play against batters on both sides of the plate. His mid-80s changeup took a step forward in 2017 and projects as average. Based on his pitch profile and sharp control, Molina has the attributes to be a No. 4 starter. If he rediscovers a few ticks of velocity, he could be better than that. He figures to be the next Mets starter to make his major league debut at some point in 2018.
Molina jumped on the prospect radar in 2014, his third pro season, when he ranked as the No. 1 prospect in the short-season New York-Penn League. He skipped a level when he advanced to high Class A St. Lucie in 2015, where, plagued by a strained right elbow, he pitched just 41 innings and then had Tommy John surgery in September. Molina missed the entire 2016 season but returned for the Arizona Fall League--and so did the power on his fastball and breaking ball. He pitched at 94 mph with life and reached 96 with his four-seam fastball, while his slider sat in the mid-80s and flashed downer action. Both pitches can be above-average to plus weapons for him, though feel for his above-average changeup had not yet returned. Molina relies on arm speed more than extension in his delivery, tends to lose velocity during starts and throws from a low three-quarters arm slot. Those factors lead some evaluators to project him as a future reliever. The Mets added Molina to the 40-man roster after the 2016 season to shield him from the Rule 5 draft, and he should return to St. Lucie to begin 2017 with a midseason move to Double-A Binghamton probable.
Molina ranked as the No. 1 prospect in the New York-Penn League in 2014, when he led the circuit in wins, ERA and strikeouts, but he spent most of 2015 on the sidelines at high Class A St. Lucie, where he, shortstop Amed Rosario and third baseman Jhoan Urena all jumped directly from short-season Brooklyn. Molina contended with a strained right elbow that sent him to the disabled list after six starts and kept him there for three months beginning in mid-May. Molina returned to St. Lucie to make two spotty appearances in August, but he ultimately had Tommy John surgery in September and will miss the entire 2016 season. When healthy, he slings a plus 92-94 mph fastball from a low three-quarters arm slot that befuddles righthanded batters and tops out at 96. He gets very little extension in his delivery, relying on arm speed for most of his velocity. Molina throws a plus changeup that works best when batters are gearing for his fastball, and he also shows a late-breaking slider that flashes average potential that he uses as a chase pitch. Despite his athleticism, physicality and poise, Molina tends to lose velocity during starts, and his mechanics are difficult to repeat, so some scouts project him to a relief role. A feel for three pitches and for throwing strikes will keep him in the rotation so long as his elbow cooperates. A return to St. Lucie in 2017 is most likely.
Molina won the short-season New York-Penn League pitching triple crown in 2014 with seven wins, a 1.77 ERA and 91 strikeouts, a performance strong enough to earn him No. 1 prospect honors in the league. A year before that he was just another strong-armed, 18-year-old thrower in the Rookie-level Gulf Coast League who allowed more than a hit per inning while striking out 7.3 per nine. NYP observers remarked upon Molina's athleticism, fluidity of motion and feel for three pitches. He pitches at 93 mph and can run the ball up to 96 in crucial spots while maintaining fine control for a hard-throwing teenager. He already throws an advanced, late-breaking slider he uses to generate swings and misses, while he shows feel for a changeup that flashes plus. A lean 6-foot-3, Molina has an ideal pitcher's frame and confident mound actions, while his athleticism allows him to repeat his delivery and throw strikes. While Molina still must prove he can maintain his stuff under a full-season workload, he outdueled the Orioles' Dylan Bundy, on a rehab assignment with Aberdeen, in a June 21 matchup by throwing seven shutout innings while allowing two hits. Though he's four levels away from the big leagues and carries significant risk, Molina has a ceiling as a No. 3 starter.
Minor League Top Prospects
Molina had a breakout season, dominating older competition as a teenager. He led the circuit in strikeouts (91) and ERA (1.77) while tying for the lead in wins (seven) and walking just 2.1 batters per nine innings. The athletic Molina has an ideal pitcher's frame and a loose arm action with a high-three-quarters delivery that he repeats well. He has advanced feel for three offerings that he can throw for strikes or use as put-away pitches. His 93-95 mph fastball bumps 96 and has tailing life. His late-breaking slider projects as a plus pitch, and he has good arm speed on his changeup, which flashes above-average to plus. "He's going to be on the fast track, I think," Brooklyn manager Tom Gamboa said. "Every once in a while you get a guy who's just different, just a cut above the rest. For a 19-year-old, he has unbelievable mound presence and poise. It's the whole package."
Scouting Reports
TRACK RECORD: Noted for his arm strength early in his career, Molina began to produce results and gain prospect helium at short-season Brooklyn in 2014. He lost momentum in 2015 and 2016 as he dealt with an elbow injury that required Tommy John surgery, but a convincing season at Double-A Binghamton in 2017, after recovering from a lat strain, restored his shine. SCOUTING REPORT: With a workhorse physique and easy, athletic delivery, Molina throws strikes and generates above-average life on all his pitches. He sat 94 mph in the Arizona Fall League in 2016, but his velocity dipped to 91 mph with a peak of 93 in 2017 as he focused on commanding and sinking the ball. He commands his high-spin two-seamer to both sides of the plate and hides the ball well. Molina's plus low-80s slider has late three-quarters tilt and depth to play against batters on both sides of the plate. His mid-80s changeup took a step forward in 2017 and projects as average. THE FUTURE: Based on his pitch profile and sharp control, Molina has the attributes to be a No. 4 starter. If he rediscovers a few ticks of velocity, he could be better than that. He figures to be the next Mets starter to make his major league debut at some point in 2018.
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