Dylan Carlson

Organization Prospect Rankings

• 
  Ranked St. Louis Cardinals #1 prospect in 2021
  Hitting: 55. Power: 55. Running: 55. Fielding: 55. Arm: 45.
  
  TRACK RECORD: Before he retired at the end of the 2018 season, Elk Grove (Calif.) High coach Jeff Carlson was known for producing future big leaguers. A remarkable eight Elk Grove alums have reached the majors from Carlson’s 16 seasons at the school, including his son Dylan. Dylan Carlson was one of the youngest players in the 2016 draft class and a late riser up draft boards. The Cardinals nabbed him with the 33rd pick. As one of the youngest players at every level he played, Carlson’s first couple of years in pro ball were solid but unspectacular. He broke out with an excellent 2019 season at Double-A Springfield and won the Texas League MVP award. The Cardinals brought him up from the alternate training site in mid August for his big league debut, but he struggled and was demoted in early September. Recalled 10 days later, Carlson homered on his first day back and hit .278/.325/.611 after he returned. He started all three of the Cardinals’ playoff games and batted cleanup.
  
  SCOUTING REPORT: Carlson is more of a well-rounded player with few glaring weaknesses rather than a tools-laden star. A switch-hitter, Carlson is an all-fields hitter who likes to spread the ball around from both sides of the plate. He is just as comfortable taking a pitch on the outer third the other way as he is yanking a ball down and inside. Carlson has the approach and demeanor of a savvy veteran and draws rave reviews for his poise at the plate. He controls the strike zone, recognizes spin and makes adjustments, ultimately projecting as an above-average hitter. Changeups gave him some trouble in his pro debut and he was also somewhat vulnerable against fastballs up in the zone, but he’s a smart player who doesn’t let a weakness hamper him for long. Carlson is one of the youngest players in the majors and should continue to get stronger and add power as he matures. His line-drive swing is more geared for singles and doubles than home runs at present, but more balls should travel over the fence as he fills out. Carlson is an above-average runner capable of stealing a base and playing all three outfield positions. He is best in a corner but can play center field as needed. His fringe-average arm is his weakest tool, but its accuracy helps make up for some of its strength shortcomings.
  
  THE FUTURE: Carlson’s strong finish helped wipe away memories of a rough first month in the majors. He should begin 2021 in the Cardinals outfield and has a chance to grow into a well-rounded, first-division player.
• 
  Ranked St. Louis Cardinals #1 prospect in 2020
  TRACK RECORD: Carlson's father Jeff built a renowned program as the coach at Elk Grove (Calif.) High, where he won eight CIF section titles and produced a long list of future major leaguers. Carlson entered high school at 13 and made varsity as a freshman, the start of a decorated four-year career playing for his dad that culminated with the Cardinals drafting him 33rd overall in 2016. After steady production as one of the youngest players at each level, Carlson broke out in 2019 at Double-A Springfield. He opened the year as the second-youngest position player in the Texas League and finished second in OPS (.882), home runs (21), runs scored (81) and extra-base hits (51) en route to winning the league's MVP award. He made the Futures Game, earned a late-season promotion to Triple-A Memphis and finished the year as one of only 10 players in the minors with at least 20 home runs and 20 stolen bases.
  
  SCOUTING REPORT: Carlson long showed advanced instincts, controlled the strike zone and flashed the ingredients to hit with above-average bat speed and hand-eye coordination. An added 10 pounds of muscle allowed him to impact the ball more, and as a result he jumped from 11 home runs in 2018 to 26 in 2019. A switch-hitter, Carlson ironed out his once-loopy lefthanded swing and is now at least an above-average hitter from both sides. He studies pitchers' tendencies, stays within the strike zone and doesn't miss his pitch. Carlson's pure power is average, but his growing strength and sound swing mechanics give him a chance to exceed that projection and hit 20 or more home runs per year. Carlson is an above-average runner who steals bases efficiently. Those same instincts allow him to capably man center field, though he's better as an above-average defender on the corners. His fringy to average arm fits best in left field. Long lauded for his plus-plus makeup, Carlson plays a mature game and knows how to handle adversity. His mother Caryn survived breast cancer and is confined to a wheelchair by an inflammatory disease that affected her spinal cord and left her partially paralyzed.
  
  THE FUTURE: With a well-rounded game and few weaknesses, Carlson is a safe bet to be a solid everyday player and has a chance to be more. His major league debut should come in 2020.
• 
  Ranked St. Louis Cardinals #10 prospect in 2019
  Track Record: Jeff Carlson built a prep baseball powerhouse in 29 years as the coach of Elk Grove (Calif.) High, producing big leaguers David Hernandez, J.D. Davis and Rowdy Tellez. Carlson's son Dylan became the program's highest player drafted when the Cardinals picked him 33rd overall in 2016, and he signed for $1.35 million.
  
  Scouting Report: Carlson has yet to post big numbers, but he's been steady as one of the youngest players at every level he's played. Carlson posted a .731 OPS in the Florida State League, that was 40 points higher than the league average as a 19-year-old, three years younger than the league average. The switch-hitting Carlson has a better swing from the right side and is loopier from the left, but he manages the strike zone from both sides and shows bat speed, hand-eye coordination and average power. Carlson is an above-average right fielder who flashes a plus arm, and he can handle center field in a pinch. He's a smart, steady player who stays on an even keel.
  
  The Future: Carlson's on-base skills and growing power fit in an outfield corner, especially if he can refine his lefthanded swing. He'll head to Double-A Springfield as a 20-year-old in 2019.
• 
  Ranked St. Louis Cardinals #24 prospect in 2018
  Carlson's father Jeff built a national prep baseball powerhouse as the coach at Elk Grove (Calif.) High just outside Sacramento, producing more than a dozen future draft picks including D-backs reliever David Hernandez and Astros third baseman J.D. Davis. Carlson became the programs' highest player ever drafted when the Cardinals took him 33rd overall in 2016 and signed him for $1.35 million. One of the youngest players in the low Class A Midwest League on Opening Day, Carlson got off to a slow start in his first full season but performed better as the year went on, posting an .804 OPS in June and hitting .266 with a .358 on-base percentage his final 35 games. Carlson is a heady switch-hitter who is selective at the plate, shows above-average power potential from both sides and is a decent athlete with near-average run times and an average arm. Those attributes help him survive, but evaluators question his overall hitting ability and don't see a plus tool, which is especially problematic given Carlson will be limited to a corner outfield spot. Some think a move to warmer weather will help, and Carlson will get that at high Class A Palm Beach in 2018.
• 
  Ranked St. Louis Cardinals #16 prospect in 2017
  One of the youngest players available in the draft, Carlson also had some of the deepest roots in the game. His father, Jeff, has been the coach at Elk Grove High for more than a decade, and his son was well known as a cage rat on the elite showcase circuits. He was a surprise first-round pick for the Cardinals, who convinced him to step out of a commitment to Cal State Fullerton and into a $1,350,000 bonus as the 33rd overall pick. Carlson had a .718 OPS in his first 183 at-bats, but he got better, more thunderous with each month. Carlson had 14 extra-base hits and slugged .523 in August. As he grows into his frame and balances his swing, Carlson could have above-average power from both sides. He flattened his swing during the season to be less of a flick and more of a sweep through the zone. At 17, he saw offspeed pitches at rates and proficiencies he hadn't before, so some trouble was expected. He's better from the left side now, but shows the same steady approach from both boxes. He'll play center field for as long as he can, but with a fringy arm and corner-outfield speed he'll gravitate to left or right or become a plus first baseman as he strides toward Rookie-level Johnson City.

Draft Prospects

• Ranked #92 prospect in 2016 draft
  Carlson's father Jeff has been the baseball coach at Elk Grove (Calif.) High outside of Sacramento for a dozen years and also coaches the JV football team and is the varsity defensive coordinator. The younger Carlson, an Under Armour All-American last summer, is a scouts' favorite for his makeup and tools. He has started to fill in his 6-foot-3, 195-pound frame, and he has a sound swing from both sides of the plate with growing strength. He's not exceptionally twitchy but has baseball athleticism with near-average speed and average arm strength in the outfield. Carlson could be a premium defender at first base or fit on an outfield corner, and he could stick in center field short-term for Cal State Fullerton. Scouts see a baseball rat who turns 18 in October and inherited some of his father's sports savvy and passion and combines it with toughness he got him his mother Caryn, a breast cancer survivor now fighting transverse myelitis, an inflammatory disorder that has limited her to a wheelchair.

Minor League Top Prospects

• 
  Ranked Texas League #2 prospect in 2019
  One of 10 minor leaguers with at least 20 home runs and 20 stolen bases this season, Carlson won the Texas League’s Most Valuable Player award after opening as the league’s second-youngest position player on Opening Day. Carlson features burgeoning above-average power at the plate and profiles as an above-average defensive corner outfielder, but he’s playable in center field as an average defender. Carlson is an above-average runner with good instincts on the bases, although he could slow down as he continues to fill out his frame. "He has the potential to be whatever he wants to be in the major leagues,” one Texas League evaluator said. "He’s going to provide some power, hit for a high average, probably steal quite a few bases early on in his career, but the scary part is I think he still has a lot of room to grow.”
• 
  Ranked Florida State League #17 prospect in 2018
  After a quick stint in the Midwest League, the Cardinals pushed Carlson to the FSL, where he became one of a handful of 19-year-olds on the circuit. Those who like Carlson are buying on the present strength and future projection. His raw tools are abundant. He's got above-average raw power with a lofted swing that produces plenty of loud contact that doesn't always translate into extra-bases. He's also got a plus arm with accuracy in right field and enough athleticism to play center field in a pinch. He needs to refine his approach and work on not selling out for power as often, but considering his age he has plenty of time to add refinement.
• 
  Ranked Florida Complex League #16 prospect in 2016
  At 17, Carlson was one of the youngest players in the 2016 draft and also ended up becoming a surprise first-round pick when the Cardinals selected him at No. 33 overall and signed him for $1.35 million. A switch-hitter who is better from the left side, Carlson changed his swing plane during the season. Early on, his barrel was getting in and out of the hitting zone early, but by the end of the year he flattened out his bat path to stay through the zone longer. It didn't help his contact frequency, but it did help him show more extra-base sock as he had his best results in August. There's strength in Carson's swing and he's able to turn on good fastballs and use the whole field. He showed an ability to identify breaking balls, though changeups gave him trouble. Carlson mostly played center field, but his speed and arm strength are both fringy and fit better in left field.

Top 100 Rankings

• Ranked Baseball America's #9 prospect in 2021
• Ranked Baseball America's #10 prospect in 2020

• March, 2021 Scouting Report
  Hitting: 55. Power: 55. Running: 55. Fielding: 55. Arm: 45.
  
  TRACK RECORD: Before he retired at the end of the 2018 season, Elk Grove (Calif.) High coach Jeff Carlson was known for producing future big leaguers. A remarkable eight Elk Grove alums have reached the majors from Carlson’s 16 seasons at the school, including his son Dylan. Dylan Carlson was one of the youngest players in the 2016 draft class and a late riser up draft boards. The Cardinals nabbed him with the 33rd pick. As one of the youngest players at every level he played, Carlson’s first couple of years in pro ball were solid but unspectacular. He broke out with an excellent 2019 season at Double-A Springfield and won the Texas League MVP award. The Cardinals brought him up from the alternate training site in mid August for his big league debut, but he struggled and was demoted in early September. Recalled 10 days later, Carlson homered on his first day back and hit .278/.325/.611 after he returned. He started all three of the Cardinals’ playoff games and batted cleanup.
  
  SCOUTING REPORT: Carlson is more of a well-rounded player with few glaring weaknesses rather than a tools-laden star. A switch-hitter, Carlson is an all-fields hitter who likes to spread the ball around from both sides of the plate. He is just as comfortable taking a pitch on the outer third the other way as he is yanking a ball down and inside. Carlson has the approach and demeanor of a savvy veteran and draws rave reviews for his poise at the plate. He controls the strike zone, recognizes spin and makes adjustments, ultimately projecting as an above-average hitter. Changeups gave him some trouble in his pro debut and he was also somewhat vulnerable against fastballs up in the zone, but he’s a smart player who doesn’t let a weakness hamper him for long. Carlson is one of the youngest players in the majors and should continue to get stronger and add power as he matures. His line-drive swing is more geared for singles and doubles than home runs at present, but more balls should travel over the fence as he fills out. Carlson is an above-average runner capable of stealing a base and playing all three outfield positions. He is best in a corner but can play center field as needed. His fringe-average arm is his weakest tool, but its accuracy helps make up for some of its strength shortcomings.
  
  THE FUTURE: Carlson’s strong finish helped wipe away memories of a rough first month in the majors. He should begin 2021 in the Cardinals outfield and has a chance to grow into a well-rounded, first-division player.
• December, 2020 Scouting Report
  Hitting: 55. Power: 55. Running: 55. Fielding: 55. Arm: 45.
  
  TRACK RECORD: Before he retired at the end of the 2018 season, Elk Grove (Calif.) High coach Jeff Carlson was known for producing future big leaguers. A remarkable eight Elk Grove alums have reached the majors from Carlson’s 16 seasons at the school, including his son Dylan. Dylan Carlson was one of the youngest players in the 2016 draft class and a late riser up draft boards. The Cardinals nabbed him with the 33rd pick. As one of the youngest players at every level he played, Carlson’s first couple of years in pro ball were solid but unspectacular. He broke out with an excellent 2019 season at Double-A Springfield and won the Texas League MVP award. The Cardinals brought him up from the alternate training site in mid August for his big league debut, but he struggled and was demoted in early September. Recalled 10 days later, Carlson homered on his first day back and hit .278/.325/.611 after he returned. He started all three of the Cardinals’ playoff games and batted cleanup.
  
  SCOUTING REPORT: Carlson is more of a well-rounded player with few glaring weaknesses rather than a tools-laden star. A switch-hitter, Carlson is an all-fields hitter who likes to spread the ball around from both sides of the plate. He is just as comfortable taking a pitch on the outer third the other way as he is yanking a ball down and inside. Carlson has the approach and demeanor of a savvy veteran and draws rave reviews for his poise at the plate. He controls the strike zone, recognizes spin and makes adjustments, ultimately projecting as an above-average hitter. Changeups gave him some trouble in his pro debut and he was also somewhat vulnerable against fastballs up in the zone, but he’s a smart player who doesn’t let a weakness hamper him for long. Carlson is one of the youngest players in the majors and should continue to get stronger and add power as he matures. His line-drive swing is more geared for singles and doubles than home runs at present, but more balls should travel over the fence as he fills out. Carlson is an above-average runner capable of stealing a base and playing all three outfield positions. He is best in a corner but can play center field as needed. His fringe-average arm is his weakest tool, but its accuracy helps make up for some of its strength shortcomings.
  
  THE FUTURE: Carlson’s strong finish helped wipe away memories of a rough first month in the majors. He should begin 2021 in the Cardinals outfield and has a chance to grow into a well-rounded, first-division player.
• July, 2020 Scouting Report
  TRACK RECORD: Carlson’s father Jeff built a renowned program as the coach at Elk Grove (Calif.) High, where he won eight CIF section titles and produced a long list of future major leaguers. Carlson entered high school at 13 and made varsity as a freshman, the start of a decorated four-year career playing for his dad that culminated with the Cardinals drafting him 33rd overall in 2016. After steady production as one of the youngest players at each level, Carlson broke out in 2019 at Double-A Springfield. He opened the year as the second-youngest position player in the Texas League and finished second in OPS (.882), home runs (21), runs scored (81) and extra-base hits (51) en route to winning the league’s MVP award. He made the Futures Game, earned a late-season promotion to Triple-A Memphis and finished the year as one of only 10 players in the minors with at least 20 home runs and 20 stolen bases.
  
  SCOUTING REPORT: Carlson long showed advanced instincts, controlled the strike zone and flashed the ingredients to hit with above-average bat speed and hand-eye coordination. An added 10 pounds of muscle allowed him to impact the ball more, and as a result he jumped from 11 home runs in 2018 to 26 in 2019. A switch-hitter, Carlson ironed out his once-loopy lefthanded swing and is now at least an above-average hitter from both sides. He studies pitchers’ tendencies, stays within the strike zone and doesn’t miss his pitch. Carlson’s pure power is average, but his growing strength and sound swing mechanics give him a chance to exceed that projection and hit 20 or more home runs per year. Carlson is an above-average runner who steals bases efficiently. Those same instincts allow him to capably man center field, though he’s better as an above-average defender on the corners. His fringy to average arm fits best in left field. Long lauded for his plus-plus makeup, Carlson plays a mature game and knows how to handle adversity. His mother Caryn survived breast cancer and is confined to a wheelchair by an inflammatory disease that affected her spinal cord and left her partially paralyzed.
  
  THE FUTURE: With a well-rounded game and few weaknesses, Carlson is a safe bet to be a solid everyday player and has a chance to be more. His major league debut should come in 2020. SCOUTING GRADES Hit: 55. Power: 60. Run: 55. Field: 55. Arm: 50. BA GRADE 60 Risk: Medium
• February, 2020 Scouting Report
  TRACK RECORD: Carlson's father Jeff built a renowned program as the coach at Elk Grove (Calif.) High, where he won eight CIF section titles and produced a long list of future major leaguers. Carlson entered high school at 13 and made varsity as a freshman, the start of a decorated four-year career playing for his dad that culminated with the Cardinals drafting him 33rd overall in 2016. After steady production as one of the youngest players at each level, Carlson broke out in 2019 at Double-A Springfield. He opened the year as the second-youngest position player in the Texas League and finished second in OPS (.882), home runs (21), runs scored (81) and extra-base hits (51) en route to winning the league's MVP award. He made the Futures Game, earned a late-season promotion to Triple-A Memphis and finished the year as one of only 10 players in the minors with at least 20 home runs and 20 stolen bases.
  
  SCOUTING REPORT: Carlson long showed advanced instincts, controlled the strike zone and flashed the ingredients to hit with above-average bat speed and hand-eye coordination. An added 10 pounds of muscle allowed him to impact the ball more, and as a result he jumped from 11 home runs in 2018 to 26 in 2019. A switch-hitter, Carlson ironed out his once-loopy lefthanded swing and is now at least an above-average hitter from both sides. He studies pitchers' tendencies, stays within the strike zone and doesn't miss his pitch. Carlson's pure power is average, but his growing strength and sound swing mechanics give him a chance to exceed that projection and hit 20 or more home runs per year. Carlson is an above-average runner who steals bases efficiently. Those same instincts allow him to capably man center field, though he's better as an above-average defender on the corners. His fringy to average arm fits best in left field. Long lauded for his plus-plus makeup, Carlson plays a mature game and knows how to handle adversity. His mother Caryn survived breast cancer and is confined to a wheelchair by an inflammatory disease that affected her spinal cord and left her partially paralyzed.
  
  THE FUTURE: With a well-rounded game and few weaknesses, Carlson is a safe bet to be a solid everyday player and has a chance to be more. His major league debut should come in 2020.
• December, 2018 Scouting Report
  One of 10 minor leaguers with at least 20 home runs and 20 stolen bases this season, Carlson won the Texas League’s Most Valuable Player award after opening as the league’s second-youngest position player on Opening Day. Carlson features burgeoning above-average power at the plate and profiles as an above-average defensive corner outfielder, but he’s playable in center field as an average defender. Carlson is an above-average runner with good instincts on the bases, although he could slow down as he continues to fill out his frame. "He has the potential to be whatever he wants to be in the major leagues,” one Texas League evaluator said. "He’s going to provide some power, hit for a high average, probably steal quite a few bases early on in his career, but the scary part is I think he still has a lot of room to grow.”
• July, 2018 Scouting Report
  The young, projectable Carlson is starting to figure things out. His natural hand-eye coordination and bat speed always gave him offensive potential, and he’s leveled out his approach to become a more complete hitter. He’s hit particularly well since the start of June (.281/.354/.460), excellent production given his age in the unforgiving Florida State League. Carlson remains a solid defender with a plus arm in right field, and his offensive improvements have him back on the radar as one of the organization’s better prospects.