Gunnar Hoglund Stats & Scouting Report

IP	26
ERA	5.88
WHIP	1.35
BB/9	3.46
SO/9	7.62

Full name Gunnar Thomas Hoglund
Born 12/17/1999 in Dunedin, FL
Profile Ht.: 6'4" / Wt.: 220 / Bats: L / Throws: R
School Mississippi
Drafted in the 1st round (19th overall) by the Toronto Blue Jays in 2021 (signed for $3,247,500).

View Draft Report

A supplemental first-round pick of the Pirates in 2018 after he went 7-0, 0.27 at Fivay High in Hudson, Fla., Hoglund’s command has long stood out. It made him an immediate contributor at Ole Miss, and it has helped him be one of the best pitchers in the Southeastern Conference in 2020 and 2021. Hoglund’s 2021 season came to a premature end when he blew out his pitching elbow in his May 7 start against Texas A&M. His rehab from Tommy John surgery means he’ll be sidelined until midway through 2022, and it likely ended any chance he had of being a top-10 pick. But Hoglund’s body of work (154 innings in three years at Ole Miss) gives teams a lot of comfort with who Hoglund is—a relatively safe starting pitcher with plus command who has the ability to throw three pitches for strikes no matter what the count. Hoglund came into 2021 viewed as a starter likely to be taken in the back of the first round, but he quickly showed improved stuff. Hoglund had touched 95 mph going back to high school, but he generally sat 90-92. This year, he sat 92-94 mph. His slider got a little harder and sharper as well. Hoglund has shown he can spot his above-average fastball to the arm side or glove side, but he generally aims to keep his fastball away—he’ll work glove side to righthanders and arm side to lefties. He consistently wins at 0-0 in the count, getting ahead which means he can then attack righties with his above-average, 80-84 mph slider, again generally staying away. Lefties have to worry about his low-80s, above-average changeup, but he’s also shown he’s comfortable working in on their hands with his slider. It’s that ability to spot all three pitches and avoid the heart of the plate that is key to his success. Even after his elbow injury, he’s seen as a low-risk surefire starter with a consistent, easy delivery.

Top Rankings

Organization Prospect Rankings

BA Grade/Risk: 50/High

Track Record: The Pirates drafted Hoglund 36th overall in 2018 but failed to sign the righthander. He instead made it to Ole Miss and was one of the best pitchers in the Southeastern Conference until an elbow injury ended his 2021 season and required Tommy John surgery. The Blue Jays still drafted Hoglund 19th overall that year. They traded the rehabbing Hoglund to Oakland along with three others in exchange for 3B Matt Chapman. Hoglund made his pro debut in late July, including one start with Low-A Stockton, but an arm issue ended his season after just eight innings.

Scouting Report: The A's hope a normal offseason of rest and recovery will help Hoglund's stuff return to pre-injury levels. Plenty of evaluators viewed Hoglund as a safe bet to reach the big leagues because of his polished three-pitch mix and strike-throwing acumen. At Ole Miss, his fastball sat 92-94 and touched 96 mph at his peak with good shape. It wasn't as firm in his brief 2022 cameo, when it sat 89-92 mph. Hoglund also throws an above-average low-80s slider that is more of a downer breaking ball and a low-80s changeup with arm-side fade that gives lefthanded hitters fits. Hoglund could throw all three pitches for strikes in any count as an amateur and has a chance for plus command.

Scouting Report: Getting Hoglund healthy is the top priority for the A's. The injury issues cloud his outlook, but his pitch mix, command and experience provided the ingredients for a quick-moving starter with a midrotation ceiling.

Scouting Grades: Fastball: 55. Slider: 55. Changeup: 55. Control: 60
Track Record: The Pirates drafted Hoglund out of high school as a supplemental first-round pick in 2018, but the two sides failed to come to an agreement and Hoglund went to Mississippi instead. The decision paid off for Hoglund, who blossomed into one of the top pitchers in the Southeastern Conference and looked like a potential top-10 pick in 2021 before Tommy John surgery ended his season in May. Even with the injury, the Blue Jays drafted Hoglund with the 19th overall pick and signed him for $3,247,500.

Scouting Report: While elbow surgery adds risk, Hoglund is a high probability bet to remain a starter because of his easy, repeatable delivery, relatively polished strike-throwing and quality three-pitch mix. Hoglund consistently pounds the zone and gets ahead of hitters and commands his fastball well to both sides of the plate. His fastball velocity trended up over his time at Ole Miss, sitting at 91-94 mph and touching 96 at its peak. The sharpness of his slider improved to develop into a tick above-average pitch at 80-84 mph, and his slightly above-average changeup keeps lefties off-balance. Hoglund’s mix of stuff and ability to locate helped him pile up a 39% strikeout rate in the SEC before he got hurt, and he projects to miss plenty of bats moving forward.

The Future: Hoglund’s rehab means he won’t make his pro debut until midway through the 2022 season. If he can stay healthy, he has a chance to be a mid-rotation starter.

Draft Prospects

A supplemental first-round pick of the Pirates in 2018 after he went 7-0, 0.27 at Fivay High in Hudson, Fla., Hoglund’s command has long stood out. It made him an immediate contributor at Ole Miss, and it has helped him be one of the best pitchers in the Southeastern Conference in 2020 and 2021. Hoglund’s 2021 season came to a premature end when he blew out his pitching elbow in his May 7 start against Texas A&M. His rehab from Tommy John surgery means he’ll be sidelined until midway through 2022, and it likely ended any chance he had of being a top-10 pick. But Hoglund’s body of work (154 innings in three years at Ole Miss) gives teams a lot of comfort with who Hoglund is—a relatively safe starting pitcher with plus command who has the ability to throw three pitches for strikes no matter what the count. Hoglund came into 2021 viewed as a starter likely to be taken in the back of the first round, but he quickly showed improved stuff. Hoglund had touched 95 mph going back to high school, but he generally sat 90-92. This year, he sat 92-94 mph. His slider got a little harder and sharper as well. Hoglund has shown he can spot his above-average fastball to the arm side or glove side, but he generally aims to keep his fastball away—he’ll work glove side to righthanders and arm side to lefties. He consistently wins at 0-0 in the count, getting ahead which means he can then attack righties with his above-average, 80-84 mph slider, again generally staying away. Lefties have to worry about his low-80s, above-average changeup, but he’s also shown he’s comfortable working in on their hands with his slider. It’s that ability to spot all three pitches and avoid the heart of the plate that is key to his success. Even after his elbow injury, he’s seen as a low-risk surefire starter with a consistent, easy delivery.
Hoglund had one of the most impressive spring seasons in a loaded state of Florida, impressing scouts and scouting directors alike with some of the best control of any high school player in the country. The 6-foot-4, 210-pound Mississippi commit struck out 105 batters and walked just two through 10 starts, with both of his walks coming in his final game. Hoglund was known as an elite strike-thrower going back to his travel-ball days, but an uptick in his fastball velocity this spring rose him up draft boards significantly. He touched 96 mph multiple times and pitched throughout the spring in the 90-95 mph range, navigating the lower end of that range with extreme ease to his delivery. Scouts call Hoglund's delivery one of the cleanest in the draft class, and he would be among the elite high school arms if his breaking ball were a bit sharper. The secondary offering tends to get long, but it has improved this spring and he can obviously land the pitch for strikes. Still, it's currently hard to project the breaking ball as a plus pitch in the future. If Hoglund were to get to campus he could be an impact two-way player, as he has an impressive bat as well. But ultimately he should go in the first few rounds of the draft thanks to 60-grade future command--an extremely rare trait for a prep pitcher.

Scouting Reports

BA Grade/Risk: 50/High

Track Record: The Pirates drafted Hoglund 36th overall in 2018 but failed to sign the righthander. He instead made it to Ole Miss and was one of the best pitchers in the Southeastern Conference until an elbow injury ended his 2021 season and required Tommy John surgery. The Blue Jays still drafted Hoglund 19th overall that year. They traded the rehabbing Hoglund to Oakland along with three others in exchange for 3B Matt Chapman. Hoglund made his pro debut in late July, including one start with Low-A Stockton, but an arm issue ended his season after just eight innings.

Scouting Report: The A's hope a normal offseason of rest and recovery will help Hoglund's stuff return to pre-injury levels. Plenty of evaluators viewed Hoglund as a safe bet to reach the big leagues because of his polished three-pitch mix and strike-throwing acumen. At Ole Miss, his fastball sat 92-94 and touched 96 mph at his peak with good shape. It wasn't as firm in his brief 2022 cameo, when it sat 89-92 mph. Hoglund also throws an above-average low-80s slider that is more of a downer breaking ball and a low-80s changeup with arm-side fade that gives lefthanded hitters fits. Hoglund could throw all three pitches for strikes in any count as an amateur and has a chance for plus command.

Scouting Report: Getting Hoglund healthy is the top priority for the A's. The injury issues cloud his outlook, but his pitch mix, command and experience provided the ingredients for a quick-moving starter with a midrotation ceiling.

Scouting Grades: Fastball: 55. Slider: 55. Changeup: 55. Control: 60
BA Grade/Risk: 50/High

Track Record: The Pirates drafted Hoglund 36th overall in 2018 but failed to sign the righthander. He instead made it to Ole Miss and was one of the best pitchers in the Southeastern Conference until an elbow injury ended his 2021 season and required Tommy John surgery. The Blue Jays still drafted Hoglund 19th overall that year. They traded the rehabbing Hoglund to Oakland along with three others in exchange for 3B Matt Chapman. Hoglund made his pro debut in late July, including one start with Low-A Stockton, but an arm issue ended his season after just eight innings.

Scouting Report: The A's hope a normal offseason of rest and recovery will help Hoglund's stuff return to pre-injury levels. Plenty of evaluators viewed Hoglund as a safe bet to reach the big leagues because of his polished three-pitch mix and strike-throwing acumen. At Ole Miss, his fastball sat 92-94 and touched 96 mph at his peak with good shape. It wasn't as firm in his brief 2022 cameo, when it sat 89-92 mph. Hoglund also throws an above-average low-80s slider that is more of a downer breaking ball and a low-80s changeup with arm-side fade that gives lefthanded hitters fits. Hoglund could throw all three pitches for strikes in any count as an amateur and has a chance for plus command.

Scouting Report: Getting Hoglund healthy is the top priority for the A's. The injury issues cloud his outlook, but his pitch mix, command and experience provided the ingredients for a quick-moving starter with a midrotation ceiling.

Scouting Grades: Fastball: 55. Slider: 55. Changeup: 55. Control: 60
BA Grade: 55/Extreme

Track Record: The Pirates drafted Hoglund out of high school as a supplemental first-round pick in 2018, but he went to Mississippi instead. The decision paid off for Hoglund, who was one of the top pitchers in the Southeastern Conference and looked like a top 10 overall pick in 2021 before Tommy John surgery ended his season in May. Even with the injury, the Blue Jays drafted Hoglund with their first-round pick at No. 19 overall and signed him for $3,247,500. The A&#39s acquired him as one of four players for Matt Chapman before the 2022 season.

Scouting Report: While elbow surgery adds durability risk, Hoglund is generally seen as a high probability bet to remain a starter because of his easy, repeatable delivery, relatively polished strike-throwing skills and quality three-pitch mix. Hoglund consistently pounds the zone and gets ahead of hitters, commanding his fastball well to both sides of the plate. His fastball trended up over his time at Ole Miss, sitting at 91-94 mph and touching 96. The sharpness of his slider improved as well to develop into a tick above-average pitch at 80-84 mph, with a slightly above-average changeup that keeps lefties off-balance. Hoglund&#39s mix of stuff and ability to locate those pitches helped him pile up a 39% strikeout rate in the SEC in 2021.

The Future: Hoglund&#39s rehab means he won&#39t make his pro debut until midway through the 2022 season. If he can stay healthy enough to be able to handle a starter&#39s workload, the upside is the A&#39s could get a mid-rotation or better starter.

Scouting Grades: Fastball: 70. Slider: 55. Changeup: 55. Control: 70.
Track Record: The Pirates drafted Hoglund out of high school as a supplemental first-round pick in 2018, but the two sides failed to come to an agreement and Hoglund went to Mississippi instead. The decision paid off for Hoglund, who blossomed into one of the top pitchers in the Southeastern Conference and looked like a potential top-10 pick in 2021 before Tommy John surgery ended his season in May. Even with the injury, the Blue Jays drafted Hoglund with the 19th overall pick and signed him for $3,247,500.

Scouting Report: While elbow surgery adds risk, Hoglund is a high probability bet to remain a starter because of his easy, repeatable delivery, relatively polished strike-throwing and quality three-pitch mix. Hoglund consistently pounds the zone and gets ahead of hitters and commands his fastball well to both sides of the plate. His fastball velocity trended up over his time at Ole Miss, sitting at 91-94 mph and touching 96 at its peak. The sharpness of his slider improved to develop into a tick above-average pitch at 80-84 mph, and his slightly above-average changeup keeps lefties off-balance. Hoglund’s mix of stuff and ability to locate helped him pile up a 39% strikeout rate in the SEC before he got hurt, and he projects to miss plenty of bats moving forward.

The Future: Hoglund’s rehab means he won’t make his pro debut until midway through the 2022 season. If he can stay healthy, he has a chance to be a mid-rotation starter.
A supplemental first-round pick of the Pirates in 2018 after he went 7-0, 0.27 at Fivay High in Hudson, Fla., Hoglund's command has long stood out. It made him an immediate contributor at Ole Miss, and it has helped him be one of the best pitchers in the Southeastern Conference in 2020 and 2021. Hoglund's 2021 season came to a premature end when he blew out his pitching elbow in his May 7 start against Texas A&M. His rehab from Tommy John surgery means he'll be sidelined until midway through 2022, and it likely ended any chance he had of being a top-10 pick. But Hoglund's body of work (154 innings in three years at Ole Miss) gives teams a lot of comfort with who Hoglund is—a relatively safe starting pitcher with plus command who has the ability to throw three pitches for strikes no matter what the count. Hoglund came into 2021 viewed as a starter likely to be taken in the back of the first round, but he quickly showed improved stuff. Hoglund had touched 95 mph going back to high school, but he generally sat 90-92. This year, he sat 92-94 mph. His slider got a little harder and sharper as well. Hoglund has shown he can spot his above-average fastball to the arm side or glove side, but he generally aims to keep his fastball away—he'll work glove side to righthanders and arm side to lefties. He consistently wins at 0-0 in the count, getting ahead which means he can then attack righties with his above-average, 80-84 mph slider, again generally staying away. Lefties have to worry about his low-80s, above-average changeup, but he's also shown he's comfortable working in on their hands with his slider. It's that ability to spot all three pitches and avoid the heart of the plate that is key to his success. Even after his elbow injury, he's seen as a low-risk surefire starter with a consistent, easy delivery.