Shelby Miller

Organization Prospect Rankings

• 
  Ranked St. Louis Cardinals #2 prospect in 2013
  The 19th overall pick in 2009, Miller signed for $2,875,000. He struggled for the first time as a pro last year, going 4-8, 6.17 in his first 17 Triple-A starts before resetting his mechanics and getting told he couldn't shake off his catcher. He went 7-2, 2.88 with a 70-7 K-BB ratio in 57 second-half innings and rode that success into a September callup and postseason role. Miller has an overpowering fastball that averaged 94 mph in the playoffs and can touch 97. It has late, heavy movement. He learned in 2012 that his heater is more effective when he utilizes his plus curveball and developing changeup. His control and command improved late in the year as well. St. Louis was concerned that he adopted a diet and workout plan that cost him muscle, so the team helped him choose a different approach to add strength and stamina. A potential No. 1 starter, Miller will come to spring training with a chance to win a spot in the rotation.
• 
  Ranked St. Louis Cardinals #1 prospect in 2012
  The Cardinals' most-heralded righthanded pitching prospect in nearly two decades, Miller spent most of the summer hearing from coaches how he needed to embrace his secondary pitches for the good of his development. It was only halfway through the season that pitching coordinator Dyar Miller wondered: "What if he doesn't? Maybe the fastball is good (enough) to get him there." Miller may be able to ride his fastball all the way to the majors, where he's expected to arrive in the near future. The 19th overall pick in 2009, he became the first high school pitcher selected in the first five rounds by St. Louis since 2005 and the first prep arm taken in the first round by the club since 1991. Signed for $2.875 million, Miller hasn't wilted under the hype. In his two full pro seasons, he has ranked as the No. 1 pitching prospect in each of his three leagues. His only difficulty came in August, when an alcohol-related incident led to a week-long suspension. The Cardinals were pleased with how he responded. In his final start of the year, he struck out nine in eight scoreless innings to punctuate what St. Louis hopes was a season of maturation both on and off the mound. Miller embraces his Texas gunslinger lineage and has the heat and mound presence to match. His overpowering fastball cooks consistently in the mid-90s and spikes to 97 mph. The fastball comes with late sinking and boring life that's just as notable as its velocity, and the ease of his delivery makes it seem to explode on hitters. Both Miller's curveball and changeup could become plus pitches with further refinement. His high-70s curveball has tight drop and his mid-80s changeup has nice fade that allows it to slide in on lefthanders. The Cardinals hoped his midseason jump to Double-A Springfield would reinforce their insistence that he utilize his secondary offerings more often and effectively. For a while he pitched with an offspeed pitch quota, even if his curve and changeup got hit, and both came out the better for it. True to the organization's preference, Miller has pitches that invite meek contact, and he has proven economical even when he gets fastball-happy. Throughout the 2011 season, he showed improved stamina and sustained velocity. As his brawny frame continues to fill out, he'll be able to maintain his power and his command later into games. He's a good athlete who might have punted in college had he followed through on a baseball scholarship from Texas A&M. Set for his third consecutive nonroster invitation to big league camp, Miller could open the season in the Triple-A Memphis rotation if he has a strong spring. He'll have to display increased dexterity with his secondary pitches to succeed at the highest levels. He could earn a callup to St. Louis late in the 2012 season and claim a permanent job in the majors in 2013. He's an ace-caliber starter and the most talented pitcher the Cardinals have developed since Rick Ankiel.
• 
  Ranked St. Louis Cardinals #1 prospect in 2011
  One of the Cardinals' representatives in the 2010 Futures Game, Miller validated his place in the organization not only with the sum of his season, but with his lone playoff start. Age 19 at the time, he promised a shutout before taking the mound--and delivered. Miller struck out five of the first six batters he faced, finished with a career-high 13 whiffs, hit 95 mph in his final inning and pitched seven scoreless innings to get low Class A Quad Cities a victory. "We saw him rise to the challenge," pitching coordinator Dyar Miller said, "in a way you can't predict." St. Louis broke from tradition to draft Miller in 2009. The 19th overall pick, he was the first prep pitcher taken in the top five rounds by the Cardinals since 2005, and the first selected in the first round by them since 1991. They did so knowing that he would command an above-slot bonus, eventually signing him for $2.875 million. St. Louis projected him as a potential No. 1 starter and thought he was mature beyond his years. As his pre-playoff pronouncement indicated, Miller embraces the lofty expectations. He turned down a Texas A&M scholarship to pursue pro ball, and he quickly made an impression on the major league staff. Though Miller had pitched just three innings in his 2009 pro debut, pitching coach Dave Duncan kept him in big league camp in March, actively seeking Grapefruit League innings for the unflappable teen to see what he could do against major leaguers. (He froze Duncan's son Chris with a changeup in one opportunity.) By the time Miller started the season, he already was considered the most talented young gun the Cardinals have had since Rick Ankiel. Miller earned his spurs as a true Texas gunslinger--a legacy he not only relishes, but invokes--by overpowering the Midwest League with his fastball. Quad Cities coaches claim he went at least his first five starts without giving up a hit on his explosive fastball, which sits at 94 mph and can regularly touch 98 mph. Some scouts see his heater as major league-ready right now. His brawny frame and simple delivery hint at sustained and perhaps improved velocity in the future. For most of June, the Cardinals pulled Miller out of the rotation and had him throw a series of bullpens designed to manage his workload and give him a laboratory to improve his secondary pitches. He emerged from that hiatus with more faith in a tighter 12-to-6 curveball and more command of what could become a plus changeup with deception and sink. Miller's fastball hops partially because of the ease of his delivery, and he needs only to refine the consistency of his mechanics to improve his command of his pitches. He combines an aggressive disposition with a cucumber-cool poise. Further improvement of his secondary pitches will speed Miller's ascent. He'll get another nonroster invitation to big league spring training, where his performance will determine his next stop. The Cardinals are open to Miller reaching Double-A Springfield's rotation in 2011, possibly starting the season there. He could reach St. Louis by the end of 2012.
• 
  Ranked St. Louis Cardinals #1 prospect in 2010
  The Cardinals hadn't taken a high school pitcher in the first five rounds of the draft since 2005, when they took righthander Tyler Herron 46th overall. The perception that they were unduly leery of high school pitchers stung them when they bypassed Rick Porcello in the 2007 draft, and they didn't let history repeat itself when another elite prep arm slipped in 2009. St. Louis took Miller with the 19th overall pick, making him the first high school pitcher taken by the franchise in the first round since Brian Barber in 1991. Cardinals officials knew it would take an above-slot bonus to land the Texas fireballer, and he signed at the Aug. 17 deadline for $2.875 million. Miller profiles as the possible No. 1 starter that had been obviously absent in the Cardinals farm system, making him worth the risk St. Louis cited for avoiding Porcello's price tag two years earlier. For his part, Miller doesn't shrink from the expectations. He moved to Houston, five hours from his home in Brownwood, Texas, so he could work out at a baseball-specific facility and improve his conditioning while waiting for a deal with the Cardinals. Miller, who had committed to Texas A&M, worked out for the major league staff at Busch Stadium and made two brief appearances at low Class A Quad Cities after signing. True to his Lone Star State roots, Miller describes himself as gleefully chucking Texas heat in the tradition of his heroes Nolan Ryan and Josh Beckett. He embraces the comparisons. Miller has a fastball that sits easily at 92-93 mph and touches 97. He has a power attitude and a muscular delivery that hints he'll veer into the mid-90s as he matures. His height, reach and deception increase the perceived velocity of his fastball, and it has heavy life that keeps it low in the zone. Taking in all those factors, some scouts thought he had the best fastball of any high school pitcher in the 2009 draft. Miller also snaps off a 12-to-6 curveball that has the potential to be a plus pitch. He has made significant improvements with his changeup over the last year. He's a quality athlete who made the Texas 3-A all-state second team in football last fall as a tight end and punter. His mechanics and durability also bode well for his durability. Harnessing his stuff is Miller's top priority. His command comes and goes, and the Cardinals believe he'll more easily repeat his delivery and be more consistent from pitch to pitch with some fine-tuning of his mechanics. His curveball and especially his changeup need more work to become reliable secondary pitches. Learning how to exploit and not just use his stuff will come with experience. Harnessing his stuff is Miller's top priority. His command comes and goes, and the Cardinals believe he'll more easily repeat his delivery and be more consistent from pitch to pitch with some fine-tuning of his mechanics. His curveball and especially his changeup need more work to become reliable secondary pitches. Learning how to exploit and not just use his stuff will come with experience.

Minor League Top Prospects

• 
  Ranked Pacific Coast League #6 prospect in 2012
  Miller faced his first extended bout of adversity in Memphis, going 4-8, 6.17 through his first 17 starts. The Cardinals gave him 11 days off in late June, and he worked with pitching coordinator Brent Strom to get his delivery more in line with the plate. When he returned, Miller was under orders not to shake off any signs, forcing him to throw more offspeed stuff because he was becoming to reliant upon his fastball. Everything clicked in August, when Miller went 5-1, 2.89 with a 53-4 K-BB ratio in 37 innings to earn his first big league callup. During that time, he unleashed a heavy mid-90s fastball from an easy delivery. His secondary stuff needs refinement, but his upper-70s curveball and mid-80s changeup have above-average potential.
• 
  Ranked Texas League #2 prospect in 2011
  If Trout was a cut above everyone, Miller was the clear-cut best pitching prospect in a league that had a good crop of arms. The only hiccup in his season was an alcohol-related suspension in August, but he returned after missing one start. Cardinals officials said he took responsibility for the mistake, which they consider an isolated incident. Miller attacks hitters with a mid-90s fastball that touches 97 mph and has sinking and boring action. He relied on the fastball too much upon arrival in Double-A, and the Cardinals let him do so until hitters had some success against him, then turned him more to his secondary pitches. His mound presence is another asset. Miller's curveball is also a potential plus pitch, while his changeup should be an effective third offering. His command is also solid but needs to get more consistent. When all of those things are working--as they were in his final start, when he allowed two hits and struck out nine in eight innings against Tulsa--, Miller has all the ingredients to be a No. 1 starter.
• 
  Ranked Florida State League #1 prospect in 2011
  Daytona manager Buddy Bailey called Miller the best pitching prospect the FSL has seen in recent years, high praise indeed considering that Matt Moore won the minor league strikeout title pitching for Charlotte last year. Miller challenges opponents with an explosive fastball that reaches as high as 95-97 mph with boring action. He has a commanding mound presence and comes right after hitters. Miller's downer curveball was inconsistent at times, but it showed promise when it was on. He throws his curve in the upper 70s with depth and the right shape to it. He also has an 85-87 mph changeup with good arm speed that he can sink or fade inside against lefthanders. Miller was leading the FSL in strikeouts when he was promoted in late May, so he didn't run into much trouble. When Miller got into trouble, it usually resulted from inconsistent fastball command. His heater diminishes after the early innings, usually sitting in the low 90s, but his clean delivery and strong frame should allow him to better hold his velocity once he matures physically.
• 
  Ranked Midwest League #2 prospect in 2010
  Miller arrived in the MWL as a promising but unrefined talent, and the Cardinals gave him most of June off to keep his innings down and work on his mechanics. He returned to post a 2.86 ERA and 84 strikeouts in 63 second-half innings, then was lights out in his sole playoff start. He fanned 13 and allowed just two hits in seven innings against an older Kane County club, hitting 95 mph in his final inning. Hitters can't catch up to Miller's 94-98 mph fastball, which seems even quicker because it has explosive life and he throws it with little effort. When he stays on top of his curveball, it has tight downer action and gives him a second plus pitch, and his changeup has some nice sink. He throws strikes, and once he gets more consistent with his command and secondary pitches, he'll be a frontline starter. "He's a real good combination of a raw physical frame along with raw physical stuff," a National League scout said. "He might be the best combination of a strong body and strong stuff in this league since Clayton Kershaw. His stuff is big league-quality right now."

Top 100 Rankings

• Ranked Baseball America's #6 prospect in 2013
• Ranked Baseball America's #8 prospect in 2012
• Ranked Baseball America's #13 prospect in 2011
• Ranked Baseball America's #50 prospect in 2010

• December, 2012 Scouting Report
  Background: The 19th overall pick in 2009, Miller signed for $2,875,000. He struggled for the first time as a pro last year, going 4-8, 6.17 in his first 17 Triple-A starts before resetting his mechanics and getting told he couldn't shake off his catcher. He went 7-2, 2.88 with a 70-7 K-BB ratio in 57 second-half innings and rode that success into a September callup and a postseason role. Scouting Report: Miller has an overpowering fastball that averaged 94 mph in the playoffs and can touch 97 mph. It has late, heavy movement that makes it more difficult to square up. He learned in 2012 that his heater is more effective when he utilizes his plus curveball and developing changeup. He went from throwing the fastball four out of every five pitches to 70 percent of the time in the second half. His control and command improved late in the year as well. St. Louis was concerned that he adopted a diet and workout plan that cost him muscle, so it helped him choose a different approach that will strength and stamina. The Future: The team's top pitching prospect since Rick Ankiel will come to spring training with a chance to win a spot in the rotation. A potential No. 1 starter, Miller also could claim a spot in the bullpen while he waits for an opportunity to start.
• December, 2011 Scouting Report
  Background: The Cardinals' most heralded righthanded pitching prospect in nearly two decades, Miller spent most of the summer hearing from coaches how he needed to embrace his secondary pitches for the good of his development. It was only halfway through the season that pitching coordinator Dyar Miller wondered: "What if he doesn't? Maybe the fastball is good to get him there." It's that good. Miller may be able to ride his fastball all the way to the majors, where he's expected to arrive in the near future. The 19th overall pick in 2009, he became the first high school pitcher selected in the first five rounds by St. Louis since 2005 and the first prep arm taken in the first round by the club since 1991, when St. Louis selected Brian Barber with the third of three first-rounders. Signed for $2.875 million, Miller hasn't wilted under the hype. In his two full pro seasons, he has ranked as the No. 1 pitching prospect in each of his three leagues. His only difficulty came in August, when an alcohol-related incident led to a weeklong suspension. The Cardinals were pleased how he responded to the punishment. In his final start of the year, he struck out nine in eight scoreless innings to punctuate what St. Louis hopes was a season of maturation both on and off the mound. Scouting Report: Miller embraces his Texas gunslinger lineage and has the heat and mound presence to match. His overpowering fastball cooks consistently in the mid-90s and spikes to 97 mph. The fastball comes with late sinking and boring life that's just as notable as its velocity, and the ease of his delivery makes it seem to explode on hitter. Both Miller's curveball and changeup could become plus pitches with further refinement. His high-70s curveball has tight drop and his mid-80s changeup has nice fade that allows it to slide in on lefthanders. He limited lefty batters to a .202 average and one home run in 228 at-bats last year. The Cardinals hoped his midseason jump to Double-A Springfield would reinforce their insistence that he utilize his secondary offerings more often and effectively. For a while he pitched with an offspeed pitch quota, even if his curve and changeup got hit, and both came out the better for it. True to the organization's preference, Miller has pitches that invite meek contact, and he has proven economical even when he gets fastball-happy. Throughout the 2011 season, he showed improved stamina and sustained velocity. As his brawny frame continues to fill out, he'll be able to maintain his power and his command later into games. He's a good athlete who might have punted in college had he followed through on a baseball scholarship from Texas A&M. The Future: Set for his third consecutive invitation to big league camp, Miller could open the season in the Triple-A Memphis rotation if he has a strong spring. He'll have to display increased dexterity with his secondary pitches to succeed at the highest levels. He could earn a callup to St. Louis late in the 2012 season and claim a permanent job in the majors in 2013. He's an ace-caliber starter and the most talented pitcher the Cardinals have developed since Rick Ankiel.